Why Investors Should Lower Expectations For Making Money on Stocks

Vanguard, others predict bonds will rival single-digit returns on stocks; best bets are overseas.The era of big returns on stocks is over. It’s time for investors to recalibrate their expectations. That’s what many Wall Street firms and advisors are telling their clients.

Look for lower returns from U.S. stocks during the next decade compared with what has historically been the case, and expect U.S. bond returns that are on a par with equities. The best returns are projected for overseas stocks and bonds. Returns from most asset classes are projected to be positive.

“The next 10 years will be different than the last 10 years,” says Jim Masturzo, partner and chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies at Newport Beach, California-based Research Affiliates. “It will be more normal.”

Expect Single-Digit U.S. Stock Returns

With inflation at the highest levels in 40 years, against a backdrop of rising interest rates and a decline in valuations, long-term returns for U.S. equities are projected to be in the low- to mid single-digit territory. That’s compared with a historical yearly average of 12%-13% before inflation, and well below the nearly 16% average annual returns of the past decade.

This is clearly a whole new world to which investors are unaccustomed after decades of low inflation and the near-zero interest rates of the past 10 years. “Returns will be more muted compared with history and especially the past two years, especially for equities,” says Roger Aliaga-Diaz, head of portfolio construction and chief Americas economist at The Vanguard Group.

Bond Returns to Rival Stocks

On the brighter side, bonds are seen giving equities a run for their money, as fixed-income returns are projected to rival those of stocks.

“Bond market returns could equal equity returns with less risk,” says Joseph Carson, economic consultant and former chief economist at AllianceBernstein. Returns on stocks in the next decade will appear “minuscule” at 4%-5%, he says, mainly because “equity returns for three of the last four decades were far above average.”

Stocks benefited from declining inflation and lower bond yields in the 1980s. Stable inflation and expectations of “a new era of long cycles of growth and earnings” pushed stock returns higher in the 1990s. And “in the decade ending 2020 it was zero rates and inflated market multiples” that led to outsize gains in stocks, says Carson.

A line chart showing rolling annualized 10-year returns between 1971 and 2021.

The Lost Decade

The outlier decade proved to be 2000 through 2009, a period that included the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, as well as two punishing recessions and accompanying bear markets that dragged down returns and set the stage for easy money conditions. In what became known as the Lost Decade, stocks delivered a negative annualized total return of 0.95%, the only decade outside the Great Depression in which total returns for the period were negative.

At the start of the decade, a bubble in technology, telecommunications, and media stocks burst, resulting in a recession and the bear market of 2000-02, when stocks fell nearly 50%.

Not long afterward came the global financial crisis of 2007-09, precipitated by a housing meltdown brought about by banks and mortgage companies extending credit and making nontraditional interest-only and adjustable-rate loans to high-risk borrowers that were then packaged into mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations and sold as stable and safe investments.

With home prices skyrocketing, the Federal Reserve started raising rates to cool the market, which prompted a wave of mortgage defaults and a subsequent liquidity crisis. The result: the deepest and longest-lasting recession since World War II. Stocks fell about 55%. The unemployment rate more than doubled.

The interventions to rescue the financial system and the economy during the crisis introduced ultraloose monetary policies that were reintroduced more recently during the pandemic crisis of 2020, creating a boom in asset prices and driving inflation to the highest levels since the 1980s. Aiming to rein in spiraling prices, the Fed has boosted the federal-funds rate six times this year at an aggressive pace and plans to continue until it sees clear signs that inflation is abating and heading back to its target rate of 2% from more than 8%.

That’s driven up yields on bonds, driving their prices lower, and sent stocks sliding. No one expects inflation and interest rates to stay at current levels over the next 10 years, but they will be at higher levels than has been the case in the past decade. And that will affect valuations.

The Case for Bonds

“Definitely, the case for bonds in the portfolio is coming back,” says Aliaga-Diaz of Vanguard. “Higher yields make the case for bonds stronger.” Over the next 10 years, Vanguard is forecasting annualized nominal returns, that is before adjusting for inflation, on U.S. equities of 4.7%-6.7% and U.S. bonds at 4.1%-5.1%.

Research Affiliates projects annualized nominal returns on U.S. equities of 2.3% over the next decade. Its forecast for U.S. bonds is 5.1% on an annualized nominal basis. Morningstar Investment Management projects U.S. stocks will deliver 5.5% in annualized nominal returns and 4.8% for U.S. bonds.

A grouped bar chart showing forecasts for annualized asset class returns over the next 10 yrs from Morningstar, Vanguard, and Research Affiliates.

Of course, stock and bond returns will vary from year to year, but these long-term annualized forecasts provide a gauge that helps firms construct diversified asset-allocation portfolios that can be tailored to optimize returns for different risk tolerances.

Investment firms also calculate these projections in real terms, which means they factor inflation into their models in addition to other variables such as valuations, earnings growth estimates, and dividend yields to obtain a more accurate assessment of potential total returns. Still, it has become standard practice for firms to issue forecasts in nominal terms because that is what is reflected in client accounts.

As Vanguard’s Aliaga-Diaz explains: “If you start with a $1,000 investment in 2022 and your portfolio returns 10% in nominal terms in 2023, your account will be $1,100. In real terms, your account would be worth $1,080 measured in 2022 dollars.”

Many investors may be gun-shy about embracing bonds, burned by steep double-digit losses this year in their portfolios at a time when stocks fell into a bear market.

The popular investment strategy of structuring portfolios with a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds to achieve attractive risk-adjusted returns with lower volatility, the so-called 60/40 portfolio, failed to provide the diversification and balance that made it a tried-and-true investment approach for so long, delivering 10.6% average annual returns for the past 40 years.

The Morningstar US Moderate Target Allocation Index, which serves as a benchmark for the 60/40 strategy, is down 17.53% this year, while the Morningstar US Market Index is down more than 21%. But what worked so well for so long will work again, say strategists.

“There is a fear and concern that what we saw this year with stocks and bonds coming down together represents a new regime,” says Aliaga-Diaz. “But we will get back to the normal relationship.”

That view has been echoed by others, including Morgan Stanley’s chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets, who has forecast a 10-year annualized return of 6.2% for the strategy. “While we do expect the 60/40 portfolio to deliver lower risk-adjusted returns compared with those over the last four decades, that doesn’t mean it is broken,” he wrote in a report issued this summer.

Starting Points Matter

A key driver of these forecasts comes down to prices: Lower prices point to higher implied returns. “Starting prices matter,” says Philip Straehl, global head of research and investment management at Morningstar Investment Management. “U.S. valuations have improved dramatically in the last 12 months. There’s been significant repricing in the U.S. equity markets.”

That’s even more true internationally, where stocks have had the added burden of coping with the strong U.S. dollar and weakened local currencies on top of inflation and rising rates. Strategists say developed and emerging markets represent the best opportunities for the highest returns.

Morningstar Investment Management forecasts stocks in developed international countries will return 9.4% annualized over the next decade. For emerging markets, the expectations are even rosier at 11.8%. Vanguard’s outlook for stocks in developed international countries is for annualized total returns of 7.2%-9.2%, and 7%-9% in emerging-markets equities. Research Affiliates is forecasting 13.1% returns annualized for emerging markets over the next 10 years and 12.6% annualized for developed international markets.

“Our recommendation would be to look outside the U.S.,” says John Thorndike, co-head of asset allocation at Boston-based investment manager GMO, which bases its outlook on a seven-year investing time frame. “If you are going to take equity risk, take the bulk of it in non-U.S. value stocks. We think you should take the risk. These stocks are attractive.”

By:

Source: Why Investors Should Lower Expectations for Making Money on Stocks | Morningstar

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The Federal Reserve’s Plan To Combat Inflation By Raising Interest Rates Carries The Risk of A Recession

A woman shops for chicken at a supermarket in Santa Monica, California, on September 13.Apu Gomes/AFP via Getty Images 

The last year of inflation has disproportionately hurt low-income and nonwhite families — those with the least flexibility in their monthly budgets to absorb higher prices. Now those same groups could be hurt by economic policymakers’ plan to tackle inflation through interest rate hikes, and in potentially longer-lasting ways.

Last month, leaders at the Federal Reserve predicted that, given their plans to continue raising rates, unemployment would rise from 3.7 percent (or 6 million people) to 4.4 percent by the end of 2023. In plain terms, this means an additional 1.2 million people would lose their jobs over the 15-month period. “I wish there was a painless way to do that,” Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell had said. “There isn’t.”

Other financial analysts projected even higher unemployment to result. Bank of America predicted unemployment would reach 5.6 percent by the end of 2023, translating to 3.2 million more people out of their jobs. Researchers at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in September that unemployment may need to reach as high as 7.5 percent to curb inflation, which would mean roughly 6 million people losing work.

The Federal Reserve raises interest rates to slow down consumption across the economy: As the cost of borrowing rises, the hope is that people buy fewer things, and prices stop spiraling higher. The latest data shows inflation still up roughly 8 percent compared to a year ago, and recent reporting in the New York Times suggests Fed leaders may even raise rates more aggressively into 2023 than they had previously envisioned.

The question is whether the Federal Reserve will be able to hit the brakes when they decide they’ve done enough — or whether it will be too late, and the economy will be hurtling downhill toward a recession that the Fed created but can’t control.

“One thing that’s a very open debate and a very important subtext to all the fights is the question of whether the Fed can actually increase unemployment just a little,” said Mike Konczal, the director of Macroeconomic Analysis at the Roosevelt Institute, a left-leaning think tank. “And with every million who lose their jobs, it’s that much harder to reintegrate them [into the labor force] later on.”

Stabilizing the economy, Konczal said, is like mending a garment. “You can pull at the threads, but if it tears you can’t just push it all back,” he said. “That’s certainly what keeps me very nervous, that the Fed is so worried it underreacted last year [to inflation] that now it might overreact.”

Some economic experts and journalists are asking if the current pain of inflation outweighs the suffering of a potential recession, and if there are less blunt tools the federal government could be leveraging instead.

“To have a smaller paycheck due to inflation, is that really worse than having no paycheck at all?” Today, Explained host Noel King asked Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari last week. “There’s not an easy answer,” Kashkari acknowledged, ultimately arguing that unemployment affects fewer people than inflation, and it’s easier for the government to target assistance to those who might be hurt.

But higher unemployment and recessions don’t just affect those who lose their jobs, and the assumption that the government would be willing or even able to provide targeted assistance to those pushed out of the labor market beyond the maximum six months of traditional (and relatively meager) unemployment benefits seems highly uncertain, given how Democrats’ more generous pandemic stimulus policies have been blamed for contributing to inflation in the first place.

Experts say the country still lacks the infrastructure to deliver more targeted aid, and with Democrats barely even mounting a defense of their pandemic assistance, whether there’s political oxygen — let alone technological capacity — to help those in a recession remains unclear.

On top of all this, if rate hikes do push millions more people out of work, those who would likely bear the biggest brunt of that job loss and take the longest to recover are the same groups suffering most now from inflation: low-income workers, workers with less education, and people of color.

Missing a “soft landing” means millions more people could lose their jobs

The workers who are most vulnerable to near-term layoffs work in construction and mortgage lending, and sell products like TVs and cars. These are so-called “interest-sensitive” industries, particularly responsive to changes in interest rates and borrowing costs. The next hit would be those working in firms that are particularly exposed to financial speculation — like traders and tech companies built around equity valuation.

The Federal Reserve’s goal is to achieve a so-called “soft landing” — meaning they want to lower inflation without throwing the economy into a recession.

Earlier this year Powell, the Fed chair, explained their goal was to make it harder for people to switch jobs, since job-switching and the fierce competition to hire workers were driving up wages. In this scenario, maybe a business eyeing higher interest rates would post fewer new jobs or decide not to fill vacant roles.

Maybe an employee would see the hiring landscape as less friendly and decide to stay put. “The idea is there’s a whole lot of activity happening that we don’t see by just looking at the unemployment rate,” said Konczal, of the Roosevelt Institute. “So in this scenario, where it becomes harder to switch to new jobs, the economy still cools without unemployment going up.”

Konczal says there’s some evidence that Powell’s “soft landing” argument has been bearing out over the past two months — the number of new job openings has slowed, as have the number of workers voluntarily switching to take another job. Wage data expected at the end of October should provide a clearer picture of where things stand.

But many experts are pessimistic that inflation can really come down without driving up unemployment, and say that if the Federal Reserve wants to see a genuine drop in prices it will have to force layoffs in less “interest-sensitive” industries, even if that increases the risk of a recession. Fewer people simply work in interest-sensitive fields like manufacturing than they did decades ago.

“That’s where face-to-face services like hospitality start to take the hit,” said Josh Bivens, the research director at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute. “Recessions can have big multiplier effects. Layoffs typically start in construction and then radiate onward, and things can get pretty bad if you have a big spiral.”

It’s harder for less educated, low-income, and nonwhite people to find work after layoffs

While some policymakers are trying to figure out if they could reduce inflation while keeping unemployment around 4 or 5 percent, other economists are sounding the alarm on what even this optimistic aggregate figure obscures — the unemployment rate for Black people is generally double that of white people, and for Hispanic people it’s typically 1.5 times the rate.

In one recent study, researchers found that lowering interest rates disproportionately helped the employment prospects for Black workers, women, and those without a high school diploma. It makes sense — if employers are facing increased competition for labor, they may be less likely to discriminate in the hiring process. Relatedly, over the past year, workers with criminal records and workers with disabilities were more in demand than they have been, as employers struggled to fill vacancies.

“It’s just a truism that when bad things happen in an economy, it’s the marginalized people, the people with less power, who are hurt fastest and most,” said Wendy Edelberg, the director of the Hamilton Project, an economics division within the Brookings Institution. “That should be fiscal policymakers’ laser focus, at all times but particularly in a downturn.”

The government is less likely to offer aid to workers who lose their jobs

When the pandemic hit, and millions lost their jobs or had their working hours reduced, the federal government responded with an array of financial policies to ease the pain such as expanded unemployment benefits, three rounds of stimulus checks, rental assistance, monthly cash deposits for parents with kids, hundreds of billions for state and local governments, and subsidies for businesses — big and small.

The investments kept millions out of poverty and evictions below historic averages, and are credited generally with helping the economy rebound much faster than following past downturns, and more quickly than other nations that had less robust stimulus policies.

But now Republicans have latched onto that federal aid as one of the top reasons inflation is at its highest point in four decades. They blame the Biden administration for putting too much money in people’s pockets, allowing them to spend too much and drive up prices. Some argue the American Rescue Plan was simply too big, or not targeted enough to those who really needed help. Economists disagree over how much the pandemic policies are to blame but Democrats, notably, are not touting their investments on the campaign trail, as voters cite inflation as a top election concern.

Republicans are expected to win control of the House, and Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy has for months attacked Democrats’ Covid policies for driving inflation. This raises the question: If the economy does spiral and workers lose their jobs or their workable hours, what kind of assistance might they expect to receive in that scenario?

“It’s one of the reasons I’m so worried about the Fed potentially overshooting, that we just won’t do that much to help people since we’re told that helping people too generously is what got us into this mess,” said Bivens of the Economic Policy Institute. “I think that’s wrong, but I’m still totally worried about this dynamic.” Bivens also warned that if Republicans control Congress, it might be in their interest to prolong economic hardship ahead of the next presidential election.

“If the Fed slips the economy into recession, what kinds of tools and political capital will be available? That’s a real concern that we aren’t talking about and aren’t being honest with ourselves,” said Mark Paul, an economist at Rutgers who has argued raising rates is the wrong response to the inflation crisis. “In the pandemic, policymakers reacted in a far better way than they have in our lifetime, where, rather than the economy taking 10 years to get to pre-Covid levels, it essentially took 1.5 years. The narrative now is that the government overshot, but the question is what were the other options and what would those have led to?”

Edelberg of the Hamilton Project said if there is a downturn, she hopes we can get “targeted relief” to those most in crisis, so that it only has modest effects on inflation. “We should do that with eyes wide open — knowing it will boost aggregate demand a little bit and that will be okay because a policy should have more than one objective,” she said.

Edelberg acknowledged the country isn’t exactly positioned to distribute targeted relief — the nation’s unemployment insurance system remains in need of serious upgrades. “We should be improving the system so we can find the people who need to get the money, so we don’t need to do things like send checks to everyone,” she said. “We do not have that infrastructure now because we haven’t really valued it.”

Slow wage growth affects even those who keep their jobs

It took 10 years after the Great Recession for wages to finally start rising, long after unemployment had gone back down. Part of this was fueled by state and local minimum wage increases, but part of it, experts believe, was due to a finally tightening economy.

Workers have enjoyed increased power over the past two years amid the even tighter post-pandemic labor market. Wages have gone up, especially for workers at the lower end of the income spectrum, and especially among those who switched their jobs. In 2021, wages grew by 4.5 percent on average, the fastest rate in almost four decades.

Now that we’re finally seeing broad-based gains in the economy, progressive economists warn that aggressive Fed policy could make those raises disappear. One major risk of a recession is slowed wage growth, which can impact everyone, not just those who lose their jobs. Even modest economic downturns can significantly reduce the chance of employers handing out raises.

The Federal Reserve has been explicit that its goal is to reach 2 percent inflation — meaning prices would continue to rise in that scenario, just hopefully more slowly and predictably. But if wages are not also rising, then families will still feel worse off and struggle to afford basic necessities.

“This wage growth angle is, by far, the most important reason why just looking at the rise of unemployment in a recession is a radical understatement of how many workers are adversely affected by recessions,” Bivens wrote in July.

One big fear for inflation watchers is the risk of a so-called “wage spiral” — a scenario where wage increases cause price increases, which in turn cause more wage increases. The concern isn’t baseless; wage spirals have happened before, most notably in the US in the 1970s, but it’s certainly not an inevitability. The labor movement was also much stronger four decades ago — over a third were unionized compared to 6 percent of private sector workers today — giving workers the kind of bargaining power they simply lack now.

Fears of a wage spiral have been dissipating somewhat. Wage growth is still higher than pre-Covid levels but has been slowing down this year. Earlier this month, researchers with the IMF concluded that wage spiral risks “appear contained” for now.

What else could be done?

Some economists and writers have warned that raising interest rates further is unlikely to curb some of the root causes of inflation — such as the war in Ukraine and factory shutdowns — and that inflation would come down next year regardless as supply chains get back on track.Others say more attention should be on things like investigating corporations for raising their prices far beyond the cost increases for raw materials.

The House Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy held a hearing on these concerns in late September, and three Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill in May that would seek to ban price gouging during market disruptions. Dean Baker, an economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, pointed to what he called “an extraordinary increase in profit shares in a relatively short period” — rising from 23.9 percent in 2019 to 26 percent in the second quarter of this year.

Some centrist and conservative analysts have framed higher unemployment and a possible recession as simply a necessary if regrettable stage in the life cycle of an economy, almost like a biological reset. “The Fed’s rate hikes will hurt,” said the right-leaning Washington Post editorial board. “That’s unavoidable.”

But “the idea that severe recessions are necessary is absolutely not true,” said Konczal. “That’s the whole point of having a Federal Reserve and macroeconomics. And the idea that recessions are somehow regenerative and healing to the economy is also wrong.”

Whether one needs higher-than-expected unemployment or lower-than-existing GDP to bring down inflation is not really clear. “People are not sure if that’s true,” said Konczal. “It’s a small sample size, and we have only so many economies that you can test.”

Others have argued that fiscal policy — as opposed to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy — demands more attention to combat inflation. (Fiscal policy refers to a government’s decision to tax and spend, whereas monetary policy is about a central bank’s control over the flow of money and credit.) Fiscal policy can be more targeted, but it can also be difficult to pass through the legislative process, and take far longer to have an economic effect.

For example, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) has called for a “production agenda” that would involve new investments in child care, housing, and community college to bring down prices and train Americans to work. These strategies, if successful, would take years however to trickle out. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) similarly argued this past summer that Congress investing in child care would help bring more parents into the workforce, which could counteract inflation, though pouring more money into child care amid a worker shortage, conversely, could also worsen it.

In August, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) introduced a bill that would place price controls on utilities, food, and housing, bolster the scope of the White House supply chain disruption task force, and authorize better data collection on corporate profiteering. (Price controls are controversial, and led to soaring prices after they were lifted in the 1970s.)

Paul, the Rutgers economist, helped advise Bowman on his bill and told Vox that he believes the Federal Reserve is not taking seriously its dual congressional mandate for both price stability and maximum employment. “Right now the Fed seems to be focused on price stability at all costs,” Paul said. “Full employment be damned.”

Source: The Federal Reserve’s plan to combat inflation by raising interest rates carries the risk of a recession – Vox

Related contents:

Inflation data suggests that the Bank of England should be doing precisely nothing with… Tax Research UK

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The Surging U.S. Dollar Is Making It Near Impossible To Afford Anything In Other Countries

Small retailers shop for dry fruits in a wholesale market, in New Delhi, Oct. 10, 2022. A record drop in the rupee -- on top of higher raw material and shipping costs - has made the nuts much costlier for Indian consumers. Manish Swarup—AP

The cost of living in Cairo has soared so much that security guard Mustafa Gamal had to send his wife and year-old daughter to live with his parents in a village 70 miles south of the Egyptian capital to save money. Gamal, 28, stayed behind, working two jobs, sharing an apartment with other young people and eliminating meat from his diet. “The prices of everything have been doubled,” he said. “There was no alternative.”

Around the world, people are sharing Gamal’s pain and frustration. An auto parts dealer in Nairobi, a seller of baby clothes in Istanbul and a wine importer in Manchester, England, have the same complaint: A surging U.S. dollar makes their local currencies weaker, contributing to skyrocketing prices for everyday goods and services. This is compounding financial distress at a time when families are already facing food and energy crunches tied to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“A strong dollar makes a bad situation worse in the rest of the world,’’ says Eswar Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell University. Many economists worry that the sharp rise of the dollar is increasing the likelihood of a global recession sometime next year.

The dollar is up 18% this year and last month hit a 20-year high, according to the benchmark ICE U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of key currencies.

The reasons for the dollar’s rise are no mystery. To combat soaring U.S. inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark short-term interest rate five times this year and is signaling more hikes are likely. That has led to higher rates on a wide range of U.S. government and corporate bonds, luring investors and driving up the U.S. currency.

Most other currencies are much weaker by comparison, especially in poor countries. The Indian rupee has dropped nearly 10% this year against the dollar, the Egyptian pound 20%, the Turkish lira an astounding 28%.

Celal Kaleli, 60, sells infant clothing and diaper bags in Istanbul. Because he needs more lira to buy imported zippers and liners priced in dollars, he has to raise prices for the Turkish customers who struggle to pay him in the much-diminished local currency.

“We’re waiting for the new year,” he said. “We’ll look into our finances, and we’ll downsize accordingly. There’s nothing else we can do.”

Rich countries aren’t immune. In Europe, which was already teetering toward recession amid soaring energy prices, one euro is worth less than a $1 for the first time in 20 years, and the British pound has plunged 18% from a year ago. The pound recently flirted with dollar parity after Britain’s new prime minister, Liz Truss, announced huge tax cuts that roiled financial markets and led to the ouster of her Treasury secretary.

Ordinarily, countries could get some benefit from falling currencies because it makes their products cheaper and more competitive overseas. But at the moment, any gain from higher exports is muted because economic growth is sputtering almost everywhere.

A rising dollar is causing pain overseas in a number of ways:

— It makes other countries’ imports more expensive, adding to existing inflationary pressures.

— It squeezes companies, consumers and governments that borrowed in dollars. That’s because more local currency is needed to convert into dollars when making loan payments.

— It forces central banks in other countries to raise interest rates to try and prop up their currencies and keep money from fleeing their borders. But those higher rates also weaken economic growth and drive up unemployment.

Put simply: “The dollar’s appreciation is bad news for the global economy,’’ says Capital Economics’ Ariane Curtis. “It is another reason why we expect the global economy to fall into recession next year.’’

In a gritty neighborhood of Nairobi known for fixing cars and selling auto parts, businesses are struggling and customers unhappy. With the Kenyan shilling down 6% this year, the cost of fuel and imported spare parts is soaring so much that some people are choosing to ditch their cars and take public transportation.

“This has been the worst,” said Michael Gachie, purchasing manager with Shamas Auto Parts. “Customers are complaining a lot.’’

Gyrating currencies have caused economic pain around the world many times before. During the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, for instance, Indonesian companies borrowed heavily in dollars during boom times — then were wiped out when the Indonesian rupiah crashed against the dollar. A few years earlier, a plunging peso delivered similar pain to Mexican businesses and consumers.

The soaring dollar in 2022 is uniquely painful, however. It is adding to global inflationary pressures at a time when prices were already soaring. Disruptions to energy and agriculture markets caused by the Ukraine war magnified supply constraints stemming from the COVID-19 recession and recovery.

In Manila, Raymond Manaog, 29, who drives the colorful Philippine mini-bus known as a jeepney, complains that inflation — and especially the rising price of diesel — is forcing him to work more to get by.

“What we have to do to earn enough for our daily expenses,” he said. “If before we traveled our routes five times, now we do it six times.”

In the Indian capital New Delhi, Ravindra Mehta has thrived for decades as a broker for American almond and pistachio exporters. But a record drop in the rupee — on top of higher raw material and shipping costs — has made the nuts much costlier for Indian consumers.

In August, India imported 400 containers of almonds, down from 1,250 containers a year earlier, Mehta said.“If the consumer is not buying, it affects the entire supply chain, including people like me,’’ he said.

Kingsland Drinks, one of the United Kingdom’s biggest wine bottlers, was already getting squeezed by higher costs for shipping containers, bottles, caps and energy. Now, the rocketing dollar is driving up the price of the wine it buys from vineyards in the United States — and even from Chile and Argentina, which like many countries rely on the dollar for global trade.

Kingsland has offset some of its currency costs by taking out contracts to buy dollars at a fixed price. But at some point, “those hedges run out and you have to reflect the reality of a weaker sterling against the U.S. dollar,” said Ed Baker, the company’s managing director.

Translation: Soon customers will just have to pay more for their wine.

By: Paul Wiseman, Kelvin Chan, Samy Magdy, Ayse Wieting and The Associated Press

Source: The surging U.S. dollar is making it near impossible to afford anything in other countries | Fortune

.

Critics by Nick Beams

The surge in the value of the US dollar against other major currencies under the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike is raising concerns about its effect both on the financial system and the global economy.

According to an index compiled by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the dollar has risen 13 percent this year against a basket of currencies. But the movement is even more marked in relation to other major currencies.

So far this year the dollar has risen 17 percent against the pound, sending the British currency to its lowest point since 1985.

The Japanese yen has fallen to its lowest against the dollar in 24 years, amid expectations that its precipitous slide will go further, prompting hints from the government that official intervention may be necessary. The euro is now trading at below parity against the US currency for the first time since its launch in 1999.

Warnings about the continued dollar surge are being sounded in the financial press. Over the weekend the Financial Times (FT) published an editorial comment under the headline “Currency shifts add to global woes.”

It said that in the midst of an energy crisis and the highest inflation in four decades the “global economy is also being rattled by big realignments in exchange rates.” Under conditions of war in the Ukraine, the European energy crisis and concerns over how some emerging markets will manage high oil and food prices, there was a move to seek security in US assets, which are regarded as “the least unsafe option.”

The surging US dollar, which is fueling price hikes in the rest of the world via imported goods, is one of the factors driving interest rate hikes by central banks, particularly in Europe.

For so-called emerging market economies in addition to rising food and energy prices, the rise in the dollar increases the burden of dollar-denominated debt and threatens to spark capital outflows. According to the International Monetary Fund, around 20 emerging markets have debt now trading at “distressed” levels. This proportion can be expected to rise.

The WSJ noted that because the dollar is at the centre of world financial markets its rise can have unforeseen consequences. Investors and policy makers, it said, were being forced to “consider history’s unkind lessons…….to be continued

.

Related News:

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Unemployment Rate Fell To 3.5% In September As Labor Market Added 263,000 Jobs

Workers assemble cars at a Ford Assembly Plant in Chicago. AFP via Getty Images

The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell last month as the economy added another 263,000 jobs—signaling that the labor market, which has remained one of the economy’s strongest pillars during the pandemic recovery, may not be cooling quickly enough for the Federal Reserve to ease up on interest rate hikes meant to combat inflation by slowing down the economy.

Job gains in September were down from 315,000 in August but slightly better than the 255,000 new jobs economists were expecting, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department; notable job gains occurred in healthcare, leisure and hospitality, the government said.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%—coming in lower than expectations calling for it to remain flat at 3.7%—as the number of unemployed people dipped to 5.8 million from 6 million in August.

“The numbers are a positive sign that the labor market isn’t deteriorating as quickly as some had feared,” says Eric Merlis, managing director at Citizens Bank, pointing out average hourly earnings were the same month over month and fell from 5.2% to 5% on a yearly basis—a welcome development for the Fed, which is concerned inflation could remain hot as a result of higher wages.

The overall job gains mark the lowest monthly total since April of last year, but in emailed comments analyst Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge Media said the report is “still too robust” for the Fed to pivot from its aggressive tightening just yet.

As a result, stock futures fell immediately after the report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average turning negative to trade down 62 points, or 0.2%, by 8:45 a.m. EDT, while the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively.

Despite widespread reports of layoffs at giant corporations, the job market has remained one of the economy’s strongest pillars this year, and Fed officials have long pointed to the strength as evidence the economy can withstand additional rate hikes. According to Challenger, U.S. employers have announced plans to cut nearly 210,000 jobs this year, marking the lowest total for the period since at least 1993. However, recent data have signaled things may be changing.

Hiring intentions, which measure the number of new jobs employers plan to add, fell to their lowest level since 2011, according to career services firm Challenger on Thursday. Meanwhile, new jobless claims jumped 15% to 219,000 last week, coming in higher than projected and ending a ten-week streak of better-than-expected data.

The Fed’s next interest rate announcement is due November 2. After the latest jobs data, investors are still expecting officials will hike rates by another 75 basis points—pushing borrowing costs to a new 15-year high.

Source: Unemployment Rate Fell To 3.5% In September As Labor Market Added 263,000 Jobs

Critics by Indhira Santos & Michael Weber Global Lead, Skills Global Solutions Group, The World Bank

The global agenda on poverty and shared prosperity hinges in large part on the number and quality of jobs people have.  Even before the disruption caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the world was changing rapidly and that is true for the nature of work and how we acquire skills on- and off- the job. Technological change and globalization have created unparalleled economic opportunities and challenges while shaping a new geography of jobs.

They are changing how skills are rewarded and create large uncertainties in terms of which skills will remain relevant in the medium to long term. Similarly, climate change is already generating significant disruptions, threatening livelihoods, and generating displacement, while at the same time opening new opportunities in greener economic activities for those with the necessary skills and inputs to clench them.

A new demographic landscape is developing – through aging in some parts of the world or youth bulges in others. This is generating a new set of opportunities for growth and better jobs through labor and skills policies but also concerns if policymakers do not react to demographic shifts. At the same time, demographic change also nurtures concerns such as the consequences of a shrinking labor force with depreciating skills (aging) and questions about maintaining social cohesion (e.g. in countries with high shares of unemployed youth).

In parallel, rapid urbanization is bringing new benefits from agglomeration, but also new challenges of identifying and connecting millions of vulnerable people, women, and youth to jobs in the more anonymous urban centers. Migration of workers within and between countries continues to be an important trend in most regions across the globe.

In addition to these opportunities and challenges linked to global mega-trends, significant structural issues prevail in labor markets across the world, notably inequality and informality. Substantial inequalities persist in the access to work and its quality. These include the segmentation of workers by their form of employment, their gender, age, or location, both between countries but also within countries’ urban and rural areas. Many women remain outside of the labor force in countries around the world; when they do work, they often do so in activities where pay is low and opportunities to progress scant.

Many youths are idle: not employed, or in education or training, putting a dent in aspirations. Just as worrisome, many of those who do work do so in very low productivity activities, often informally, without access to social or legislative protections and with few opportunities to move up the labor market ladder or learn. As a result, many workers today are poor or one shock away from falling into poverty. 

COVID-19 impacts could leave an entire generation behind; the outlook for future employment, productivity, and earnings growth is sobering. Experience shows that workers who start looking for a job during a recession experience significant and long-lasting negative impacts on employment and income compared to those with better timing. This ‘COVID-19 Generation’ includes recent graduates, first-time job seekers, and workers who have lost jobs due to the pandemic.

They are likely to be scarred from this crisis the longer they are out of work or underemployed. The disruptive impact of the COVID-19 crisis on workers, labor markets, skills development, and livelihoods, as well as its likely long-standing impact on the world of work, has reinforced the importance of labor & skills policies and programs. Looking beyond the crisis, it is imperative to reflect on the multiple impacts of COVID-19 on labor markets and skills development and understand its future implications on the agenda, especially in developing countries.

This changing landscape for employment relations overlays with other factors that have traditionally provided the rationale for public interventions, including market failures and the exploitation of workers. Public labor and skills policy interventions can help mitigate these challenges. They can, for example, limit uneven bargaining power, reduce information asymmetries or discrimination, improve access, quality, efficiency but also the relevance of skills training, and provide protection against risks such as job loss and disability.

As outlined in the World Bank’s 2013 World Development Report, beyond policies that facilitate investments and growth, advancing the global jobs agenda requires the right investment in people – the right skills for people to secure good jobs, the right protection for people against risks arising from volatile economies, and the right mechanisms to help people transition smoothly out of inactivity and unemployment into jobs, and from low to higher productivity employment. 

Labor policies and programs support these goals. Labor regulations and insurance programs protect workers from risks and, if well-designed, can facilitate labor market transitions thereby allowing individuals to engage in higher risk, higher return activities. Active labor market programs such as training, job-search assistance, or support to self-employment or micro-enterprises can also help workers acquire the skills they need and connect them to jobs. For many, these programs can facilitate internal or international labor mobility and increase access to better economic opportunities.

Related News:

Blockchain: A fix for the broken data layer underlying the global labor market VentureBeat

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Job Openings Post Biggest Drop In Two Years In ‘Ominous Sign’ For Labor Market

Peloton Scales Down, Again—Here Are The Major U.S. Layoffs This Year (Forbes)

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Recession Watch: ‘Very Concerning’ Sign Of Serious Economic Slowdown Emerges As Stock Market Collapses

"Sentiment is palpably horrible," says one analyst as more experts turn increasingly bearish on the ... [+]  AFP via Getty Images

A growing rash of economists are warning the odds of a recession have increased amid a historic inversion of the yield curve—a telltale sign of a looming economic slowdown after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised rates to the highest level since the Great Recession and signaled its policy would be more aggressive than previously anticipated.

Yields on the 10-year Treasury surged more than 10 basis points to nab a new 11 year-high of 3.829% on Friday, while the 2-year Treasury hit a 15-year record of 4.266%—deepening the yield curve inversion to some 50 basis points, the widest gap in more than 30 years.

Since July the yield curve has been inverted—when short-term yields fall below longer-term returns—in a sign investors are more bearish about the economy’s long-term prospects, and the inversion only deepened after the Fed on Wednesday raised rates by 75 basis points and suggested it may institute another unusually large hike again in November.

In a note to clients, analyst Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report explained the steepening inversion “makes sense” because a more aggressive Fed, and higher rates that make borrowing more expensive, will temper demand and stunt economic growth in hopes of reducing inflation, but he also warned the magnitude of the inversion has become “very concerning.”

A Federal Reserve study in 2018 found every recession in the past 60 years has been preceded by a yield curve inversion, and Essaye says the widening gap between 2-year and 10-year Treasurys is “screaming that a serious economic contraction is coming,” adding “everyone should be preparing” for a material economic slowdown in the coming months and quarters.

In a Friday note, Bank of America economists said they expect the economy will fall into a recession in the first half of next year, with real GDP falling 1% after adding 5% last year, and unemployment rising to 5.6%—potentially wiping out more than a year of job gains.

Fed officials doubled down on their most aggressive economic tightening campaign in three decades on Wednesday, raising interest rates by three-fourths of a percentage point for the third time in a row and pushing borrowing costs to 3.25%—the highest level since 2008. Though they had originally projected the federal funds rate would only climb to 3.4% this year, they now project it will climb to 4.4%, suggesting another 75 basis point hike could be on the table in November.

“With this new alignment between the Fed and markets, the questions now are when and how bad the recession will hit,” says Mace McCain, the chief investment officer of Frost Investment Advisors. Stocks plunged deeper into bear market territory after the Fed’s hawkish message, with major indexes eclipsing yearly lows on Friday. The S&P 500 is down 23% this year, and economists at Goldman project it will sink another 3% by December and could take more than a year to recover losses.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq has plummeted 32% since January, the Dow nearly 20%. “Looking out over the next one to two months, we don’t have much conviction at all on equities,” says Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge Media. “Sentiment is palpably horrible.” Existing home sales fell for the seventh straight month in August as rising interest rates continued to sideline potential home buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors.

In a statement, the association’s chief economist Lawrence Yun called the housing sector “most sensitive to” the Fed’s interest rate hikes and said the softness in home sales reflects this year’s escalating mortgage rates, which hit a 15-year high of nearly 6.3% this week—driving up the cost of monthly payments on new mortgages by more than 55%, an average of hundreds of dollars each month.

Despite pockets of the economy already reeling from the Fed’s hawkish policy, the job market remains firmly strong, effectively justifying the aggressive action. Initial jobless claims were little changed this week and continued claims actually edged lower. However, many experts say it’s inevitable that the labor market will soon start to cool. “It’s possible that the unemployment rate could gently glide higher and wages cool without an outright recession—but it’s never happened before,” says Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.

Though it slowed for a second-month straight, inflation clocked in at a worse-than-expected 8.3% in August—far worse than the Fed’s long-standing target of 2%. Bank of America economists project inflation won’t return to that level until the end of 2024.

I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business

Source: Recession Watch: ‘Very Concerning’ Sign Of Serious Economic Slowdown Emerges As Stock Market Collapses

Critics by

Adam Tooze has a cult following among economists and historians alike. The famed English economic historian, once hailed by New York Magazine as “impeccably credentialed, improbably charming”, is in Australia after speaking at Sydney’s Festival of Dangerous Ideas.

The decision by the US Federal Reserve to raise its key interest rate by another 75 basis points this week, and its plans for further increases, have raised the spectre of a global economic slowdown. Overnight, the Bank of England lifted its key rate by 0.5%, matching Indonesia and the Philippines, while the Swiss National Bank and South Africa opted for a 0.75 percentage point rise.

Tooze, a history professor at New York’s Columbia University and a frequent contributor to the Guardian, has detailed the gathering economic headwinds and has analysed for Guardian Australia the key areas of the current financial turmoil.

‘Extremely severe’ recession risk

The chances of a global recession were now “extremely severe”, as central banks in many parts of the world raise interest rates to curb inflation. “It’s the single most dramatic simultaneous tightening of monetary policy ever,” Tooze said. The winding back of Covid support packages by governments as the pandemic tide recedes also meant fiscal brakes were being tapped.

“US fiscal policy right now is massively contractionary,” Tooze said. “It’s a 4.5% of GDP negative drag.”

Textbook moment of ‘failed technocracy’

Tooze predicted the current policies of central banks and governments would be marked in future textbooks as a “classic moment of failed technocracy”. The US Fed Reserve lifted its cash rate target range by 75bp to 3% to 3.25% on Wednesday, US time. It also indicated it expected increases of as much as another 125bp this year even as Fed chairman Jerome Powell warned of a possible recession.

Tooze said other central banks will be under pressure to follow. Australia’s Reserve Bank governor, Philip Lowe, said last week the bank would probably lift its cash rate 25bp or 50bp on 4 October, making it a record six increases in as many months. The lives of 100s of millions of people and their employment prospects would be scarred by a recession, Tooze said: “This will mark those people’s lives for the rest of their lives.”

Australian fallout

Private economists forecast Australian property price falls of as much as 20%, the steepest decline since the 1980s as rates rise. Tooze said Australia and Canada had two of the “most overheated” property markets in the world, and he predicted “huge effects” from higher borrowing costs.

One source of support for the market might also be less forthcoming in the future. The surge in both Chinese students and property buying in Australia, US and elsewhere, had partly been a “capital flight story”, he says. Buying a flat to provide accommodation while studying was one way to get money out of China.

Signs have lately been mounting of a renewed effort by Chinese to move money abroad ahead of a major Chinese Communist party meeting in Beijing next month that will formally extend the leadership of President Xi Jinping. To counter that capital flight, authorities are making it harder for people “beyond certain networks” to access passports, Tooze said. “It’s really quite difficult now for the Chinese to discreetly exit.”

China worries

The RBA deputy governor, Michele Bullock, on Wednesday described the global economy as being “on a bit of a knife-edge”. One reason was the fragile state of China’s economy. Its Covid-zero policy disrupted supply chains and a plunging property market had “still not worked itself out”, she said. Demand for Australian iron ore, in particular, hinged on the success of government efforts to support real estate.

The Chinese property bubble is not just any property bubble – it’s the largest single phase of accumulation of wealth in economic history,” Tooze said, noting the number of private property owners had jumped from near zero to 300 million in a few decades. “They poured more concrete in three years [in the early 2010s] than the United States in all of the 20th century,” he said. The Chinese government may yet stabilise the market.

“The amazing thing is that big money in the west is taking a huge gamble on the capacity of an authoritarian regime unfettered by the rule of law to pull off the largest single exercise in macro-prudential, macro-financial stabilisation the world has ever seen,” Tooze said. Assuming they can do that, BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue – and a large part of the Australian economy – “are all fine”.

One cause for optimism

Tooze said the “extraordinary progress” in cutting the cost of solar and wind energy was a “real case for optimism”, at least as far as action to limit global heating was concerned. “The disappointment is we could be even further down those cost curves” if the US and Europe and elsewhere had matched China’s investment. Improving battery technology would be “fundamental” to advancing decarbonisation efforts because of the intermittency of renewables.

He cited data from the International Energy Agency on total public funded energy research – totalling $US23bn ($A35bn) in 2021 – as proof we can do more. “If we were serious about the energy transition,” he said, “you’d think we would be collectively spending more than what Americans spend [each year] just on treats and food for their dogs and cats”.

.

Related contents:

China’s Economic Recovery Faces Fresh Risks From Global Slowdown BNN Bloomberg

Institutional strengths emerge in China’s fight against COVID-19, economic slowdown China.org.cn

Microsoft plans to add 1,000 jobs in China despite economic slowdown in the country PingWest

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Fanpage                          https://jvz4.com/c/202927/144349
Fitness Nutrition                    https://jvz4.com/c/202927/353334/
Followup Builder                         https://jvz3.com/c/202927/386313/
Forex Atlatian                        https://jvz8.com/c/202927/25069/
Forex Blizz                             https://jvz8.com/c/202927/144577/
Forex Blue Stark                      https://jvz3.com/c/202927/47481/
Forex expert                   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/376877
Forex Hybrid Scalper                        https://jvz6.com/c/202927/95037/
Forex Joustar                     https://jvz8.com/c/202927/381617/
Forex Joustar                  https://jvz6.com/c/202927/381617/
Forex Mastery                    https://jvz2.com/c/202927/144621/
Forex Scouts                         https://jvz6.com/c/202927/132677/
forrk                                              https://jvz1.com/c/202927/373449
FusionMT4                             https://jvz2.com/c/202927/372523/
FX Goldminer                      https://jvz1.com/c/202927/381439/
Galactic                         https://jvz1.com/c/202927/188236/
Gaming job                    https://jvz2.com/c/202927/184902  s
Genesis Mining                         https://www.genesis-mining.com/a/2535466
Givvy Mobile Lottery             https://givvy-numbers.app.link/qNDZMGGbhsb
Gluten free                              https://jvz4.com/c/202927/296191
GMB Magic                        https://jvz2.com/c/202927/377194
Graphic Alta           https://jvz2.com/c/202927/324492/
Heal Your Emptiness                         https://jvz6.com/c/202927/384848/
High Converting Emails                  https://jvz3.com/c/202927/386305/
HostLegends                       https://jvz4.com/c/202927/384755/
Hostley Domain Creator                        https://jvz1.com/c/202927/379223/
Human Synthesys Studio                      https://jvz8.com/c/202927/367353/
ImageX                      https://jvz6.com/c/202927/363237/
IMSyndicator                   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/370769
Inboxr                            https://jvz2.com/c/202927/312692
Insta Keyword                https://jvz6.com/c/202927/351606/
Instant Website                https://jvz2.com/c/202927/377557
InstantWebsiteBundle          https://jvz6.com/c/202927/377557
iTraffic X                          https://jvz2.com/c/202927/320466
keysearch                                    https://jvz3.com/c/202927/194909
Klippyo Kreators                         https://jvz8.com/c/202927/327447
KoinCart                            https://jvz2.com/c/202927/383555/
Leadvalet                         https://jvz3.com/c/202927/385580/
Levidio Royal Podcasting                        https://jvz6.com/c/202927/384025/
Linkable DFY                       https://jvz6.com/c/202927/385873/
Linkomatic                            https://jvz2.com/c/202927/380937/
LiteTrading                                 https://www.litefinance.com/?uid=929237543
Live Your Truth                       https://jvz6.com/c/202927/379020
Living An Intentional Life              https://jvzoo.com/c/202927/382455
Living an International Life                  https://jvz8.com/c/202927/382455/
Local Leader                   https://jvz4.com/c/202927/383751/
Local Sites                  https://jvz4.com/c/202927/380543/
LocalAgencyBox                 https://jvz2.com/c/202927/359468
LocalCentric                            https://jvz2.com/c/202927/379339/
Marketingblocks             https://jvz6.com/c/202927/374934
MarketPresso                  https://jvz2.com/c/202927/369837
Mat1 Simple Funnel                            https://jvz2.com/c/202927/380197/
Maxslides                         https://jvz8.com/c/202927/376842
Mech Forex Robot                           https://jvz6.com/c/202927/383447/
MediaCloudPro                 https://jvz2.com/c/202927/343635
Megasuite                         https://jvz3.com/c/202927/383953/
Mobi First                          https://jvz2.com/c/202927/353694/
Motion Kingdom Studio                    https://jvz4.com/c/202927/383177/
Movid Animation                     https://jvz6.com/c/202927/380385/
MT4Code System                  https://jvz2.com/c/202927/376925
My Passive Income                  https://jvz1.com/c/202927/384099/
MyMailIt                              https://jvz3.com/c/202927/292919
MyTrafficJacker               https://jvz2.com/c/202927/353558
Next Drive                      https://jvz4.com/c/202927/371095/
NichBox               https://jvz2.com/c/202927/370705/
Organic Life Guide                 https://jvz8.com/c/202927/366872/
Photokit                           https://jvz4.com/c/202927/373207/
PicsAds                         https://jvz2.com/c/202927/385468/
PigMoney Metho                     https://jvz4.com/c/202927/377665/   d
PigMoneyMethod                        https://jvz2.com/c/202927/377665/
Pitchdeck                      https://jvz3.com/c/202927/347847/
Pixal                     https://jvz2.com/c/202927/378775/
Pixivid                           https://jvz6.com/c/202927/385213/
PlanB Muscle Growth              https://jvz1.com/c/202927/36517/
PlayerNeos                 https://jvz2.com/c/202927/376962
Podcast Advantage                        https://jvz8.com/c/202927/379995/
Podcast Advantage              https://jvz1.com/c/202927/379995/
Podcast Masterclass               https://jvz3.com/c/202927/379998/
PodKastr                 https://jvz1.com/c/202927/369500/
Postradamus                              https://jvz6.com/c/202927/108695
Power Reviews                     https://jvz8.com/c/202927/384625/
Powrsuite                       https://jvz1.com/c/202927/376361
PR Rage                        https://jvz4.com/c/202927/343405
prime stocks                              https://jvz8.com/c/202927/369164  prime stocks
Profile mate                           https://jvz4.com/c/202927/358049
Promovidz                      https://jvz8.com/c/202927/375692/
Push Button Traffic         https://jvz2.com/c/202927/301402
QR Verse                      https://jvz3.com/c/202927/383865/
Quintex Capital                         https://quintexcapital.com/?ref=arminham
Quit Smoking                           https://jvz3.com/c/202927/359081/
Reputor                 https://jvz8.com/c/202927/380159/
ReVideo                     https://jvzoo.com/c/202927/381761
ReviewReel                        https://jvz6.com/c/202927/382663/
Rewriter                      https://jvz4.com/c/202927/353373/
RSI SEO                              https://jvz6.com/c/202927/384381/
Scriptdio                       https://jvz4.com/c/202927/385387/
Seniors Income                        https://jvz2.com/c/202927/383888/
Senuke                                  https://jvz6.com/c/202927/279944
ShopABot                           https://jvz2.com/c/202927/291955
ShopFunnels                        https://jvz3.com/c/202927/384069/
SocialAgency360                 https://jvz1.com/c/202927/385357/
SociCake                       https://jvz2.com/c/202927/321987
Socifeed                          https://jvz6.com/c/202927/375706
SociJam                    https://jvz2.com/c/202927/309649
Soronity                                 https://jvz6.com/c/202927/368736
SqribbleEbook                 https://jvz6.com/c/202927/283867
Stackable Picture                        https://jvz1.com/c/202927/385046/
Steven Alvey’s                      https://jvz2.com/c/202927/351754
Stoodaio                                    https://jvz1.com/c/202927/372094
Storymate                         https://jvz3.com/c/202927/320972
StreamPilot                        https://jvz2.com/c/202927/385431/
Studioninja                       https://jvz1.com/c/202927/374965
Sunday Freebie                             https://jvz1.com/c/202927/267113/
Super backdrop                https://jvz8.com/c/202927/376524
Superbackdrop                 https://jvz8.com/c/202927/376524
Survai                      https://jvz8.com/c/202927/380933/
Syndranker                          https://jvz3.com/c/202927/378143/
Talkingfaces                      https://jvz2.com/c/202927/375358
Talkingfaces                    https://jvz3.com/c/202927/375550
The Internet Marketing                https://jvz2.com/c/202927/289944
Tonai Voice Content           https://jvz8.com/c/202927/383119/
Toon Video Maker                   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/357201
TrafficFor                https://jvz8.com/c/202927/381950/
TrafficForU                   https://jvz3.com/c/202927/381950/
Trendio                       https://jvz3.com/c/202927/381003/
TubePal                        https://jvz6.com/c/202927/379863/
Tubeserp                        https://jvz3.com/c/202927/370472
TubeTargeter                   https://jvz6.com/c/202927/377211
TV Boss Fire                https://jvz6.com/c/202927/379480/
Ultrafunnels A.I                 https://jvz2.com/c/202927/381129/
VIADZ Ad Template                    https://jvz4.com/c/202927/379307/
Vidcentric                             https://jvz4.com/c/202927/376095
Viddeyo                                https://jvz6.com/c/202927/382326/
Videevolve                       https://jvz4.com/c/202927/381011/
Video Campaignor      https://jvz4.com/c/202927/387058/
Video Games                            https://jvz3.com/c/202927/184902/
VideoEnginePro                https://jvz2.com/c/202927/372916
VideoGameSuite                     https://jvz3.com/c/202927/366537/
VideoRobot Enterprise                https://jvz8.com/c/202927/291061
VidKreate                        https://jvz6.com/c/202927/386029/
VidMingo                           https://jvz6.com/c/202927/378359/
VidSnatcher                           https://jvz3.com/c/202927/342585
VidVoicer                      https://jvz1.com/c/202927/379983/
Vidzura                       https://jvz4.com/c/202927/385754/
Viral dash                            https://jvz6.com/c/202927/375959
Viral Quotes            https://jvz2.com/c/202927/386984/
VirtualReel                       https://jvz8.com/c/202927/376849
Vocalic                    https://jvz2.com/c/202927/383848/
VoiceBuddy                      https://jvz1.com/c/202927/342854
WebCop                         https://jvz4.com/c/202927/378683/
Webinarkit                       https://jvz3.com/c/202927/383937/
Webprimo                   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/379455/   Website Builder
WordPress Mastery                       https://jvz1.com/c/202927/386249/
WOW Backgrounds                      https://jvz3.com/c/202927/381615/
WowBackgraounds                       https://jvz2.com/c/202927/381556/
WP GDPR                                https://jvz8.com/c/202927/299907
WP Simulator                    https://jvz3.com/c/202927/46987/
Writer Arc           https://jvz1.com/c/202927/386602/
writing job                                  https://jvz8.com/c/202927/213027
XBrain Forex                           https://jvz3.com/c/202927/372305/
XFUNNELS                         https://jvz2.com/c/202927/310335
Xinemax                    https://jvz1.com/c/202927/381749/
YoDrive                    https://jvz2.com/c/202927/384700/
Your 3DPal                https://jvz2.com/c/202927/381685/
YTSuite                       https://jvzoo.com/c/202927/381179
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