The Diminishing Returns of Productivity Culture

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In 2006, Karen Ho was an anthropology student at Princeton. She wanted to study the culture of Wall Street, and she understood that the easiest way to gain real access was to work there herself. She had virtually no qualifying experience, but because she was a student at Princeton — one of the handful of schools that Wall Street firms deem acceptable in their search for the ‘best of the best’ — she was able to finagle a low level position.

With time, she built enough connections and trust that dozens of bankers agreed to sit with her for an interview. The resultant book, Liquidated: An Ethnography of Wall Street, came out in 2009. There’s a passage from one of Ho’s interviews that, as the kids say, lives in my mind rent-free. She’s talking to a banker about his preference for the sort of work ethic you find on Wall Street:

If you go to the outside world and you start working with people, people just are not motivated in the same way. It is just a pain in the ass to get anything done in the real world. People leave work at five, six p.m. People take one-hour lunch breaks, and people do this and that and whatever.

Believe me, it makes a big deal, because if you are working with people who all work real hard to do whatever it takes to get things done, it just makes things so much easier. And doing things is what makes people feel good about their life and makes them feel important. This is the whole self-worth thing — to complete and do things.

He talks a little about how he thinks workers in big corporations and the academy just aren’t as motivated — they lack ambition, or:

I think in the old days, back in the fifties or sixties, people kind of just had a set pattern of life. They went to work, climbed the ladder slowly, and did whatever they were told. I think now that people are so seduced by the capabilities that you can jump ahead and how much difference you can make, how important you can feel or whatever it is that gets you off…

He’s referring to the ‘Organization Man’ approach to work — made possible, at least for white men, by the middle-class security of the post-war period. Who needs manic ambition when you’re not terrified of falling from your class position? But then he finishes with:

It feels like now, you can get a lot done, be really productive, and it is seductive. And that is why people who have more than enough money…more than enough respect, still are involved in this at the expense of their families because they need to feel needed. And there is nothing better than to complete thing on a regular basis.

There’s something great about this dude with so much confidence in his approach to life that he doesn’t have to dress up what he gives him self-worth (“completing and doing things”) and his addiction to it. Productivity is what gets him off. Everyone else just doesn’t understand the thrill of completing things on a regular basis……

Continue reading….

By: Anne Helen Petersen

Source: The Diminishing Returns of Productivity Culture

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Legal Money Laundering: How A German Bank Is Cleaning Tainted Bitcoin And Other Dirty Cryptos

Illustration by Fernando Capeto for Forbes; Photos by Malerapaso/Getty Images; Pete Starman/Getty Images

Just before sunset on a chilly Spring day in 2019 armed German special agents broke down the door to the Frankfurt home of a 22-year-old hacker who the government has only identified as Coder420, the developer of a dark web exchange called Wall Street Market.

At its peak, the enterprise was the largest of its kind, conducting about €50 million in sales between October 2016 and April 2019, selling everything from cocaine to credentials. At the time of Coder420’s arrest, he had roughly 1,000 bitcoins, then worth $5.5 million.The operation was a huge success. The German state of Hesse, home to Germany’s finance capital Frankfurt, seized 2,200 bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies from Coder420 and two collaborators. “It was a classical takedown of a darknet marketplace,” says Jana Ringwald, 41, a senior prosecutor for the attorney general of Frankfurt.

To this day, it’s the largest trove of cryptocurrency ever seized by a German governmental body, and it set off a series of events that resulted in the state and a tiny German bank, with a mere €40 million of assets (about $40 million), overcoming a huge obstacle to bringing tainted crypto out of the shadows.

Though less than one percent of cryptocurrency transactions last year were considered illicit, according to blockchain data firm Chainalysis, that was still a record $20 billion, most of which is marked as dirty by a cottage industry of blockchain-data startups managing independent and unofficial blacklists. Crypto sitting on a blacklist is difficult to use and many crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken refuse to accept it.

Instead of selling those assets at an auction the way the U.S. Justice Department has done for 185,000 bitcoins it has seized over the last nine years, attorney Ringwald partnered with Frankfurt-based Bankhaus Scheich, which has a fledgling side business in cleaning the blacklisted cryptocurrencies. So far it has cleaned and sold some €150 million worth of dirty digital assets for the state of Hesse.

Yesterday, in partnership with the FBI and German Federal police, the state of Hesse seized another €46 million worth of bitcoin and other cryptocurrency from two servers they believe are responsible for laundering $700 million for North Korea and an undisclosed amount to help the Russian military buy malware.

Over the past month, two other states have signed deals similar to Hesse’s, according to the bank’s managing director of digital assets, Nils von Schoenaich-Carolath, 34, and other German states are currently exploring similar services, he says. As U.S. banks with crypto exposure are facing an existential threat in the wake of the ripple effects surrounding the bankruptcy of crypto exchange giant FTX, Bankhaus Scheich’s CEO and co-founder Wolfgang Beck, sees his firm’s work as a model for how clear regulations and innovative banking practices can upgrade financial infrastructure while protecting users.

“This new digital-asset business is for so many people kind of a strange thing, which they do not understand,” says Beck, 64, who is the bank’s sole shareholder. “So I’m trying to give them the feeling that an old house for trading securities is now doing the same thing with a digital asset. We want to take all of these people, all these institutions, to find a solution for their clients in the new markets. So they have to go over the bridge, plug in, and onboard on our platform for digital assets.”

Bankhaus Scheich was founded in 1985 as Scheich & Partner Börsenmaklermarket, an OTC trader for fixed-income products like bonds. Over the past eight years, the firm has expanded in a number of ways, laying the foundation for its forays into crypto. In 2015, it was licensed as a securities trading bank by Germany’s financial services regulator and now transacts hundreds of millions of euros a day worth of traditional OTC volume and fixed-income assets listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, including securities of Bayer, Lufthansa and Volkswagen.

In 2018, Bankhaus Scheich expanded to capital markets. Recognizing the traditional need for companies to pre-fund million-dollar investments through regulated brokers, the firm started building a suite of institutional crypto services, called Tradias, that lets financial-services firms conduct OTC trades, market making and create securities tokens on the Ethereum and Polygon blockchains. Periodically, the crypto trades are netted out internally, and the bank buys and sells digital assets on exchanges, including Kraken, Binance and formerly on now-defunct FTX.

At around the same time Bankhaus Scheich entered the capital markets, Ringwald, the Hessen prosecutor, began her work with the state’s Ministry of Justice to figure out how to liquidate 100 bitcoins (then worth about €200,000) that had been seized in 2014 and were just laying around.

Absent any formal process to auction the assets as local governments do all the time for seized drug dealer Lamborghinis for example, Ringwald had to personally, painstakingly, piece together a process by which her team could sell the bitcoin. Two years later she was called on again when her team grabbed the much larger 2,200 bitcoin booty from the Wall Street Market.

Since her first, highly manual sale of bitcoin, digital-asset regulation had advanced, she says, “and you could see step by step that coins were becoming more and more actual financial instruments. They’re not cars,” she says.

“So I put pressure on my boss and said, ‘I need a professional partner.’” In spite of increasing regulatory clarity in Germany, Ringwald had trouble finding institutions that actually had all of the required licenses to deal directly with crypto. So over the course of more than a year she assembled a team including two lawyers to find a qualified broker.

Enter tiny Bankhaus Scheich, which had decided that embracing digital assets could give it a strategic edge after German regulators updated rules to allow for the creation of funds tracked on “crypto securities registers.” In January 2021, the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, known as BaFin, approved such a prospectus, allowing Bankhaus Scheich to convert European Union investment funds into assets issued on a blockchain through a process called tokenization that lets assets settle around the clock.

In pilot projects, the bank has so far tokenized real estate, private equity and a convertible bond. Nine months later, Bankhaus Scheich signed a deal with Frankfurt-based Universal Investment, which provides administration and risk-management services that allows its crypto subsidiary to trade crypto and tokenize securities for banks, asset managers, and custodians in Germany, Luxembourg and France.

Bankhaus Scheich’s crypto conversion and immersion has not been without hiccups. Recently an eight million euro tokenization pilot of a fund of funds fizzled after German neo-bank partner Nuri became insolvent in the aftermath of the FTX collapse.

Though von Schoenaich-Carolath, who is also the Tradias chief revenue officer, declined to share cost savings from cutting out securities depositories like Luxembourg-based Clearstream, it’s client Cashlink, which helps Scheich tokenize commodities and securities, put the savings at between 35% and 65%.

Before Hessen attorney Ringwald partnered with Bankhaus Schiech to clean her seized digital assets, she brought them to a crypto exchange, to see with her own eyes what would happen if the tokens were sold as they were. “The machines reacted and said, ‘this is no good,’” she recounts, “and that proved that we would have had a huge problem.”

Ringwald’s team identified Bankhaus Scheich in November of 2021 as a crypto service provider capable of legally accepting the number and variety of crypto assets Hesse had seized. A month later, the contract was signed.

To clean the funds, Ringwald first had to make sure her colleagues and bosses at the state government were okay with writing an official letter in English for international companies on German state letterhead, something that’s normally frowned upon.

In a form letter she sent to Scheich, then forwarded to Chainalysis, CoinFirm, Ellipse and other cryptocurrency blacklist creators, Ringwald confirmed her cybercrime center has the legal authority to “collect the respective purchase price” of digital currencies seized during legal proceedings, according to a copy of the letter provided to Forbes, confirms the office’s contractual relationship with Bankhaus Scheich and gives permission for the tokens to be sold to the bank.

Instead of dealing directly with exchanges that might disappear overnight, the state sells the assets directly to the bank at a discount. “We only have direct contact to Bankhaus Scheich,” says Ringwald. “Never to the market itself.” Other clients looking to trade crypto place orders directly with the bank, which fulfills the orders from its own crypto reserves.

To keep the total crypto it holds below a one million euro limit that it set after witnessing cryptobank Silvergate’s demise, the bank periodically nets the transactions with its other crypto buy and sell orders, selling them at market prices on 20 exchanges, liquidity pools and via over-the-counter (OTC) brokers that use the same security firms to check for blacklisted money.

After the buy and sell trades are netted, the position is closed out on cryptocurrency exchanges. “We don’t want to be long,” says von Schoenaich-Carolath. “We don’t want to be short.” “This white-listing process was then done for the first time in December 2021,” says Ringwald. “And then we had 100 million euros after that.”

Ironically, much of laundering process for tainted bitcoin and other dirty digital assets is accomplished manually via emails and phone calls. The whole process of cleaning tainted crypto takes about two weeks. Since its first crypto-washing cycle, the attorney general’s cybercrime unit has cleaned an additional €50 million worth of seized cryptocurrency using the Bankhaus Scheich process.

Yesterday morning in Frankfurt, Ringwald’s team, and the German Federal Criminal Police (the Bundeskriminalamt) surreptitiously acted as administrators of two servers to seize at additional 1,909 bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies along with seven terabytes of data about the operation. Germany expects to keep the proceeds of the sale of the assets, which should occur in the next week or two. “The FBI had a very big interest in this mixing service,” says Ringwald. “As many do. It was the biggest one on the dark web until yesterday.”

The funds will be turned over to the state’s Ministry of Finance and are expected to be partially used to support the state’s judicial offices, according to Ringwald. In part as a result of her work, Ringwald was appointed chair of the Hessen office on cryptocurrencies and is informally helping the other 15 German states explore ways to deal with dirty crypto.

“What is happening now in Germany is that other states are adopting that,” says Ringwald. Von Schoenaich-Carolath says two states have already signed a deal with the bank but declined to name them. In addition to its German state clients, Bankhaus Scheich is working with more than 30 institutions offering it other blockchain services, including, traditional securities exchange Börse Stuttgart, broker Trade Republic and Deutsche Telekom.

While some crypto initiatives, including a bitcoin exchange-traded note with Fidelity International, are run from the main bank offices, the majority are housed at subsidiary Tradias, which has grown to nearly 100 employees from just 10 a year ago. Chief Executive Beck owns 100% of Bankhaus Scheich and 60% of Tradias, with the other 40% owned by his son Christopher, who is the subsidiary’s CEO.

In February, the bank filed its annual statement for 2021, showing €14 million in crypto trading revenue, representing roughly a third of the €47 million in total trading income that year, compared to almost nothing the year before. That also doesn’t count Tradias’ revenue, which is not disclosed.

Given Bankhaus Scheich’s crypto-trading operation and the fact that it sells most of the crypto it cleans back to various crypto exchanges around the world, it maintains accounts at many of them. One of them happened to be recently shuttered FTX. In November, along with most of FTX’s other customers, the exchange froze Bankhaus Scheich’s funds, including about €2 million worth of bitcoin, ether and stablecoins.

The German bank is suing FTX, but the global exchange’s collapse may wind up bringing new business to Bankhaus Scheich as mainstream companies seek third parties to represent them in their crypto trading and tokenization efforts. “The clients now understood after FTX that there’s something like counterparty risk in the market,” says von Schoenaich-Carolath, who admits to already signing up three new clients that were formerly considering working with FTX.

“We put our money in 20 different baskets within our risk limits,” he says. “And when we lose some, nothing happens.” It’s possible that FTX’s collapse could create billions more in cryptocurrencies in need of cleansing, depending on which seized assets analytics firms decide to blacklist.

It is clear that U.S. regulators have prioritized enforcement over establishing clear regulatory rules and that’s likely to result in more crackdowns, seizures and untradeable crypto. In fact, in January, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency issued a rare joint statement warning banks about the “vulnerabilities related to cyber-attacks, outages, lost or trapped assets, and illicit finance” and seizures and forfeitures are expected to increase as regulators around the world crack down on illegal uses of cryptocurrency.

All of this could be good news for Bankhaus Scheich, its in house crypto specialist Tradias and its budding digital asset laundry.

I report on how blockchain and cryptocurrencies are being adopted by enterprises and the broader business community.

Source: Legal Money Laundering: How A German Bank Is Cleaning Tainted Bitcoin And Other Dirty Cryptos

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Growing Anxiety On LinkedIn, With Marketing And Tech Workers Most On Edge

Woman leaves work with her possessions after being laid off....getty

More than 30% of professionals on LinkedIn self-reported feeling anxious about their jobs, fearing that their employers are planning budget cuts and layoffs. People working in marketing, product management and tech are more concerned than those in legal, administration or accounting.

LinkedIn, the go-to social media platform for job seekers and career-oriented professionals, released its latest Workforce Confidence Index. The report gathers data from the nearly 900 million members to find out if people are confident or not in their jobs. The concerns, however, are not widespread. The data cites that “in relative terms,” professional services, including consulting, staffing, legal, recruiting, administrative support, and healthcare, have a higher confidence level as people.

People working in these sectors “are likely to have clients across the full sweep of U.S. industries, including areas such as retail or oil and gas, which have seen upturns in this year.” The recruiting inclusion raises some questions as headhunters are one of the first groups to be laid off when hiring stalls. LinkedIn News editor-at-large George Anders added that attorneys have less anxiety during tough times as people look to lawyers to help with issues such as property foreclosures, layoff-related litigations, bankruptcy filings and more.

People working in the military and protective services, community and social services, accounting, and administrative roles have lower anxiety over being laid off or worrying about budget cuts. On the flip side, people working in product management, quality assurance, and marketing are nervous about the state of affairs. These roles are usually correlated with new product rollouts, which decline during periods when customer demand wanes.

The data indicates that Wall Street and the tech sector professionals are less confident and becoming increasingly anxious as layoffs, hiring freezes, and job offer recessions are announced regularly. Historically, these cohorts experienced ever-increasing compensation and job growth. Record levels of runaway inflation, interest rate hikes, and a contracting economy doesn’t bode well for the white-collar tech and finance professionals.

The positive side, LinkedIn points out, is that the overall economy is still holding up. Recent monthly U.S. job reports indicate a solid job market. Hiring continues despite the doom and gloom. The unemployment rate remains at a 20-year low of about 3.7%; there are still 1.7 jobs posted for each unemployed person seeking a new role and 10.3 million available positions open.

What Is Happening On Wall Street

Wall Street investment bankers, brokers, traders, deal makers and money managers are not immune to market forces. According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan, Bank of America BAC +0.2%, Citigroup C +0.6%, and other financial institutions are considering cutting bonuses by up to 30%.

Compensation management consulting firm Johnson Associates reports that incentive pay may fall by more than 45%. There is a fear that some low performers will get “donuts,” the harsh term for not receiving any bonus payout.

The largest five United States investment banks saw their revenue plunge by nearly 50%, representing around $19 billion during the last three quarters of 2022. The decline in mergers and acquisitions, deal-making activities and initial public offerings caused management to reconsider paying big bonuses.

This hurts the wallets of white-collar Wall Street professionals who earn a large portion of total compensation in their yearly bonus. For high performers, in a good year, they can take home six to seven-figure bonus payments.

Top-tier New York City-based investment bank Goldman Sachs is planning to let go of around 4,000 white-collar professionals. The reductions will impact around 8% of the bank’s worldwide workforce. Goldman had laid off 500 employees in September as the economy started to falter.

Similar to the way tech companies purportedly conduct performance improvement plans and stack rankings to cull out low performers, securities industry firms usually ease out a small percentage of low-impact workers, or neglect to offer a bonus—which represents a significant portion of the total compensation—as a nudge for them to seek employment elsewhere.

It’s Not Just Goldman Laying Off People

The tech sector experienced more than 150,000 layoffs in 2022. The once invincible big tech companies such as Twitter, Amazon AMZN +1.7%, Meta laid off personnel, saw their stock prices plummet, hiring freezes put in place, and some job offers rescinded. Additionally, a contagion effect seems to occur as more companies are laying off workers across a wide array of industries.

Elon Musk’s first order of business after his $44 billion acquisition of Twitter was indiscriminately firing an estimated 50% of the social media platform’s workforce. To make matters worse, Musk reportedly gave the existing employees an ultimatum: commit to the new “hardcore” Twitter 2.0 or leave with a severance package. The expectation is for his staff to put in long hours and work with intensity, as Musk desires only those who exhibit exceptional production.

According to internal estimates, 1,200 full-time employees left ahead of Musk’s commitment deadline, reported the New York Times NYT +1.2%. In the blink of an eye, Twitter’s workforce dwindled from 7,500 to about 3,700 after the separations from payroll.

Likely, other tech companies will closely follow Musk’s strategy in trimming the fat. Tech giants seeing their stock prices fall and are worried about the harsh economic climate ahead know they need to lay workers but may have held off because of the negative backlash associated with large layoffs. If Musk’s methodology works—enacting job cuts or making employees’ lives so difficult that they’ll leave on their own accord—other businesses will be encouraged to downsize too aggressively.

There is a herd mentality amongst corporate leadership. If a business leader at the helm of a bellwether company is conducting layoffs, others will follow. There will be concern by boards of directors that if everyone else is downsizing, why isn’t their company? Major shareholders will contend that management is not judicious in making tough decisions. By reducing headcount, shareholders and the board will benefit, in the long term, by saving money to help navigate a predicted upcoming recession.

What To Expect, And What You Should Do Now

As Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve Bank, follows through with his program of cooling down the economy and job market to thwart inflation; the intended result is to cause job losses. When people lose their jobs, they are less apt to spend money.

When this happens at scale, the economy will contract, along with inflation, as consumers cut their expenditures. Powell’s objective could take a year or two to reduce inflation to 2% from a nearly 40-year record high. Some economists and Wall Street professionals are concerned that the Fed’s program can cause a recession, hurting workers and businesses.

With this backdrop in mind, heading into the new year, you must be thoughtful about your job and career. This is not the time for acting your wage, quiet quitting or cyberloafing. You want to make yourself indispensable, so you’re immune from being let go.

In addition to working hard and smart, simultaneously plan a career cushion escape plan. If things go wrong at your company, you don’t want to start searching for a new job from a dead stop. Find recruiters, career coaches, resume writers, mentors, coaches and others who can introduce you to the hidden job market, cutting through the interview red tape and getting in front of decision-makers.

Put aside time to freshen up your résumé and LinkedIn profile. Seek out top headhunters in your field. Scope out ‘reach’ positions on job boards and target companies’ careers sites. Don’t be demure at Christmas, Hanukkah and New Years’ parties. Reach out to strangers and friends and ask them if they know of any job openings or business opportunities they could share with you.

You might decide to make a career pivot or reinvent yourself. This may require taking online courses to learn new skills or taking a step back to move forward in a new and different direction.

Most people discard their job hunt in December and put it off until the new year. While they sit on the sidelines, you’ll be charged up and stand out in the hiring process, as there is substantially less competition.

I am a CEO, founder, and executive recruiter at one of the oldest and largest global search firms in my area of expertise..

Source: Growing Anxiety On LinkedIn, With Marketing And Tech Workers Most On Edge

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Related contents:

‘A Failed and Broken System.’ Tech Layoffs Set the Clock Ticking for Foreign Workers The Tribune, California

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How Wall Street Banks Will Reap Billions From Tax-Free Renewable Energy Bonds

LLUSTRATION BY STUART BRADFORD FOR FORBES

One of the hottest trends in finance is prepaid muni bonds structured to help local utilities buy decades worth of renewable electricity. They’re good for the environment, but even better for the banks that will profit from cheap financing, trading profits and federal tax breaks.

Socially responsible investing, marketed under the moniker “ESG” (short for environmental, social and governance), is a huge and growing business. In 2015 global ESG-related assets were $2.2 trillion, according to PwC, growing to $9.4 trillion in 2020 and nearly doubling in 2021 to $18.4 trillion. Sustainable bonds are a big slice of this pie.

Globally, over the last two years, an average of more than 400 bonds have been issued per quarter, totaling over $1.7 trillion, according to the London Stock Exchange’s Refinitiv group. European issuance is more than double that of the U.S., but a wave of new green bonds is coming here.

One particularly vibrant corner of this market: ESG-certified municipal bonds, such as those designed to help local communities prepay for decades’ worth of green electricity. According to Monica Reid, the founder of Kestrel, which charges “a fraction of a basis point” of a new bond deal’s face value to verify new issues as “social,” “green” or “sustainable,” there have been $85 billion worth of these municipal bonds issued in the U.S. in the last two years.

Reid’s Hood River, Oregon–based team of 27 analysts and engineers certified nearly a third of them. “Not everything is green or sustainable or socially beneficial because it’s financed with municipal bonds,” Reid says. “The muni market is also where coal ash dumps are financed, ports and airports. It’s where turnpikes and toll roads are financed.

We are very discerning. Internally we have a do-no-harm criteria. If repayment is from oil royalties or gambling revenues, that’s a problem.” Like so many environmental trends, this one started in California. Over the past 14 months enormous Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have persuaded ultra-green electric power agencies in Northern California to hand them roughly $2.7 billion, with $2 billion more in the works.

The power agencies raise that upfront cash by selling tax-free municipal bonds of the type Kestrel certifies. In return, the banks so far have promised to deliver into the California power grid 2.2 million megawatt hours per year of “green” electricity, sourced from solar, wind and hydropower.

There are many winners. The banks get cheap loans to spend on whatever they want. Californians, like the residents of 15 other states and the District of Columbia, get to pick their provider and can choose to put their money toward greener power. And investors can hold the bonds comforted by the knowledge that they have invested in something not only green but backed by a big bank’s guarantee.

The loser? Uncle Sam. If Morgan Stanley issued its own similarly structured corporate debt to raise funds, it would likely pay 6% or so interest, subject to federal tax. But when Morgan raises cash via a municipal prepaid green electricity deal at a 4% interest rate, it incurs no federal tax. On $3 billion in green power munis so far, that would equate to some $50 million a year in forgone tax revenue.

Maybe it’s worth it. After all, it’s a model that could quickly spread across the nation and help underwrite the development of enormous amounts of greener energy. But it also could add up to billions of dollars in hidden annual subsidies to rich Wall Street banks. That might not play well in Peoria.

California is one of 10 states that have enabled the creation of local electricity-purchasing cooperatives called Community Choice Aggregators. They have names like Marin Clean Energy and Silicon Valley Clean Energy, and were formed to enable Californians to buy power marketed as 100% “green.” In recent years these co-ops have entered multidecade contracts directly with the owners of solar fields and wind farms to buy their electricity output.

But these electric co-ops are utterly unequipped to manage a host of complex contracts with financial counterparties. So last year the Marin co-op joined with sister entities in places like Silicon Valley, Berkeley and Carmel to set up what’s known as a conduit issuer, the California Community Choice Financing Authority (CCCFA), essentially a shell agency with the power to issue tax-free municipal bonds.

In the last 14 months, CCCFA has issued $2.7 billion in three different Clean Energy Project Revenue Bond deals, with tax-exempt coupon rates of 4%, courtesy of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. The money goes toward prepaying for 30 years of renewable electricity. Prepaying comes with a discount. CCCFA members, for example, expect to save $7 million per year on their electricity purchases. Continue reading…..

By:&

Source: How Wall Street Banks Will Reap Billions From Tax-Free Renewable Energy Bonds

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Why Investors Should Lower Expectations For Making Money on Stocks

Vanguard, others predict bonds will rival single-digit returns on stocks; best bets are overseas.The era of big returns on stocks is over. It’s time for investors to recalibrate their expectations. That’s what many Wall Street firms and advisors are telling their clients.

Look for lower returns from U.S. stocks during the next decade compared with what has historically been the case, and expect U.S. bond returns that are on a par with equities. The best returns are projected for overseas stocks and bonds. Returns from most asset classes are projected to be positive.

“The next 10 years will be different than the last 10 years,” says Jim Masturzo, partner and chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies at Newport Beach, California-based Research Affiliates. “It will be more normal.”

Expect Single-Digit U.S. Stock Returns

With inflation at the highest levels in 40 years, against a backdrop of rising interest rates and a decline in valuations, long-term returns for U.S. equities are projected to be in the low- to mid single-digit territory. That’s compared with a historical yearly average of 12%-13% before inflation, and well below the nearly 16% average annual returns of the past decade.

This is clearly a whole new world to which investors are unaccustomed after decades of low inflation and the near-zero interest rates of the past 10 years. “Returns will be more muted compared with history and especially the past two years, especially for equities,” says Roger Aliaga-Diaz, head of portfolio construction and chief Americas economist at The Vanguard Group.

Bond Returns to Rival Stocks

On the brighter side, bonds are seen giving equities a run for their money, as fixed-income returns are projected to rival those of stocks.

“Bond market returns could equal equity returns with less risk,” says Joseph Carson, economic consultant and former chief economist at AllianceBernstein. Returns on stocks in the next decade will appear “minuscule” at 4%-5%, he says, mainly because “equity returns for three of the last four decades were far above average.”

Stocks benefited from declining inflation and lower bond yields in the 1980s. Stable inflation and expectations of “a new era of long cycles of growth and earnings” pushed stock returns higher in the 1990s. And “in the decade ending 2020 it was zero rates and inflated market multiples” that led to outsize gains in stocks, says Carson.

A line chart showing rolling annualized 10-year returns between 1971 and 2021.

The Lost Decade

The outlier decade proved to be 2000 through 2009, a period that included the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, as well as two punishing recessions and accompanying bear markets that dragged down returns and set the stage for easy money conditions. In what became known as the Lost Decade, stocks delivered a negative annualized total return of 0.95%, the only decade outside the Great Depression in which total returns for the period were negative.

At the start of the decade, a bubble in technology, telecommunications, and media stocks burst, resulting in a recession and the bear market of 2000-02, when stocks fell nearly 50%.

Not long afterward came the global financial crisis of 2007-09, precipitated by a housing meltdown brought about by banks and mortgage companies extending credit and making nontraditional interest-only and adjustable-rate loans to high-risk borrowers that were then packaged into mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations and sold as stable and safe investments.

With home prices skyrocketing, the Federal Reserve started raising rates to cool the market, which prompted a wave of mortgage defaults and a subsequent liquidity crisis. The result: the deepest and longest-lasting recession since World War II. Stocks fell about 55%. The unemployment rate more than doubled.

The interventions to rescue the financial system and the economy during the crisis introduced ultraloose monetary policies that were reintroduced more recently during the pandemic crisis of 2020, creating a boom in asset prices and driving inflation to the highest levels since the 1980s. Aiming to rein in spiraling prices, the Fed has boosted the federal-funds rate six times this year at an aggressive pace and plans to continue until it sees clear signs that inflation is abating and heading back to its target rate of 2% from more than 8%.

That’s driven up yields on bonds, driving their prices lower, and sent stocks sliding. No one expects inflation and interest rates to stay at current levels over the next 10 years, but they will be at higher levels than has been the case in the past decade. And that will affect valuations.

The Case for Bonds

“Definitely, the case for bonds in the portfolio is coming back,” says Aliaga-Diaz of Vanguard. “Higher yields make the case for bonds stronger.” Over the next 10 years, Vanguard is forecasting annualized nominal returns, that is before adjusting for inflation, on U.S. equities of 4.7%-6.7% and U.S. bonds at 4.1%-5.1%.

Research Affiliates projects annualized nominal returns on U.S. equities of 2.3% over the next decade. Its forecast for U.S. bonds is 5.1% on an annualized nominal basis. Morningstar Investment Management projects U.S. stocks will deliver 5.5% in annualized nominal returns and 4.8% for U.S. bonds.

A grouped bar chart showing forecasts for annualized asset class returns over the next 10 yrs from Morningstar, Vanguard, and Research Affiliates.

Of course, stock and bond returns will vary from year to year, but these long-term annualized forecasts provide a gauge that helps firms construct diversified asset-allocation portfolios that can be tailored to optimize returns for different risk tolerances.

Investment firms also calculate these projections in real terms, which means they factor inflation into their models in addition to other variables such as valuations, earnings growth estimates, and dividend yields to obtain a more accurate assessment of potential total returns. Still, it has become standard practice for firms to issue forecasts in nominal terms because that is what is reflected in client accounts.

As Vanguard’s Aliaga-Diaz explains: “If you start with a $1,000 investment in 2022 and your portfolio returns 10% in nominal terms in 2023, your account will be $1,100. In real terms, your account would be worth $1,080 measured in 2022 dollars.”

Many investors may be gun-shy about embracing bonds, burned by steep double-digit losses this year in their portfolios at a time when stocks fell into a bear market.

The popular investment strategy of structuring portfolios with a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds to achieve attractive risk-adjusted returns with lower volatility, the so-called 60/40 portfolio, failed to provide the diversification and balance that made it a tried-and-true investment approach for so long, delivering 10.6% average annual returns for the past 40 years.

The Morningstar US Moderate Target Allocation Index, which serves as a benchmark for the 60/40 strategy, is down 17.53% this year, while the Morningstar US Market Index is down more than 21%. But what worked so well for so long will work again, say strategists.

“There is a fear and concern that what we saw this year with stocks and bonds coming down together represents a new regime,” says Aliaga-Diaz. “But we will get back to the normal relationship.”

That view has been echoed by others, including Morgan Stanley’s chief cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets, who has forecast a 10-year annualized return of 6.2% for the strategy. “While we do expect the 60/40 portfolio to deliver lower risk-adjusted returns compared with those over the last four decades, that doesn’t mean it is broken,” he wrote in a report issued this summer.

Starting Points Matter

A key driver of these forecasts comes down to prices: Lower prices point to higher implied returns. “Starting prices matter,” says Philip Straehl, global head of research and investment management at Morningstar Investment Management. “U.S. valuations have improved dramatically in the last 12 months. There’s been significant repricing in the U.S. equity markets.”

That’s even more true internationally, where stocks have had the added burden of coping with the strong U.S. dollar and weakened local currencies on top of inflation and rising rates. Strategists say developed and emerging markets represent the best opportunities for the highest returns.

Morningstar Investment Management forecasts stocks in developed international countries will return 9.4% annualized over the next decade. For emerging markets, the expectations are even rosier at 11.8%. Vanguard’s outlook for stocks in developed international countries is for annualized total returns of 7.2%-9.2%, and 7%-9% in emerging-markets equities. Research Affiliates is forecasting 13.1% returns annualized for emerging markets over the next 10 years and 12.6% annualized for developed international markets.

“Our recommendation would be to look outside the U.S.,” says John Thorndike, co-head of asset allocation at Boston-based investment manager GMO, which bases its outlook on a seven-year investing time frame. “If you are going to take equity risk, take the bulk of it in non-U.S. value stocks. We think you should take the risk. These stocks are attractive.”

By:

Source: Why Investors Should Lower Expectations for Making Money on Stocks | Morningstar

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Cryptokit    https://jvz8.com/c/202927/383809/
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CryptoUnderworld     https://jvz8.com/c/202927/374345/
Dealcheck     https://dealcheck.io?fp_ref=armin16
DesignaSuite      https://jvz2.com/c/202927/297271
DesignBeast    https://jvz6.com/c/202927/371547
DevelopSelfEmpowerment     https://jvz6.com/c/202927/383094/
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DFYSuite   https://jvz3.com/c/202927/381194/
Diabetes Guide    https://jvz2.com/c/202927/358870/
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DUX Forex Signals   https://jvz3.com/c/202927/128215/
EBook Agency    https://jvz2.com/c/202927/384573/
Ejaculation Total   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/75989/
Email Monetizer    https://jvz2.com/c/202927/386337/
EngagerMate  https://jvz8.com/c/202927/328172
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Facebook Cash Machine   https://jvz4.com/c/202927/382333/
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Fitness Nutrition   https://jvz4.com/c/202927/353334/
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High Converting Emails  https://jvz3.com/c/202927/386305/
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Hostley Domain Creator   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/379223/
Human Synthesys Studio  https://jvz8.com/c/202927/367353/
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Insta Keyword    https://jvz6.com/c/202927/351606/
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LiteTrading   https://www.litefinance.com/?uid=929237543
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Stoodaio   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/372094
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Video Campaignor      https://jvz4.com/c/202927/387058/
Video Games   https://jvz3.com/c/202927/184902/
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