Silvergate Earnings Finally Catching Crypto Winter Chill

Slivergate CEO Alan Lane, second from right, is applauded as he rings the New York Stock Exchange ... [+]Copyright 2019 The Associated Press. All rights reserved

Crypto winter is finally catching up with Silvergate, whose unusual business model saw its mostly interest-free deposits zoom while yields on its investments rose. The leading crypto bank gathers demand deposits from exchanges and crypto infrastructure providers that need to be able to tap their cash in a hurry.

A boom in deposits, coupled with Federal Reserve tightening and an investment portfolio with more than half its holdings in floating-rate instruments sent profit soaring in recent quarters. As the crypto economy has cooled and leading currency bitcoin’s price has stabilized at a lower level, trading volume has declined.

The current environment leaves investors concerned that Silvergate’s deposits have dropped, as they did last quarter when they fell to $13.8 billion from $14.7 billion in the first three months. On a year-over-year basis, Silvergate is still expected to report stunning figures, with net income up 83% to $42.9 million, and earnings per share on the adjusted basis used by Wall Street up to $1.40 from 88 cents a year ago.

But the tide seems to be turning. Jared Shaw, managing director at Wells Fargo WFC Securities said Silvergate may not be able to take as much advantage of rising bond-market interest rates as conventional banks because the liquidity needs of its customers require conservative investments. Wells Fargo earlier this month cut its full-year EPS outlook for Silvergate to $4.73 from $4.93, while slashing its 2023 forecast to $6.93 from $9.21.

Silvergate shares rose 5.2% on Monday to $70.65, though it remains far below the $239.26 it crested at in November. This year, the stock is down 55%, compared with a 5% drop for the Invesco KBW Regional Banking ETF.The depressed crypto market also has implications for one of Silvergate’s growth initiatives: bitcoin-backed loans.

Earlier this year, the bank made headlines by issuing a $205 million loan to analytics software company Microstrategy, which used the funds to buy bitcoin. However, with bitcoin’s price down 57% year-to-date, Shaw is not optimistic in the short-term about the business stream. “Clearly, with bitcoin pricing under pressure, people need to put more collateral down for that loan,” Shaw says. “I think the overall service use case for that is delayed and reduced.”

Investors will also be eager to hear an update on Silvergate’s plan to launch its own stablecoin by the end of the year. In January, the bank purchased Meta’s abandoned Diem project for $182 million. The stablecoin could make Silvergate’s existing payments network more efficient and the company’s CEO Alan Lane has said he believes U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins have the potential to change the traditional payments landscape.

“The reality is there is not a bank-regulated issue stable-coin in the world right now,” Michael Perito, managing director at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, says. “They know the advantage of being a first mover and I think that’s what they’re trying to move to.”

While stablecoins generate excitement in traditional and crypto communities, regulatory uncertainty looms over the progress of these projects. In 2013, Silvergate became the first to target crypto companies as business banking clients. Today, the bank acts as the plumbing behind much of the crypto economy by facilitating the conversion of dollars to crypto assets for clients like exchanges.

Additionally, Silvergate offers institutional custody services, issues bitcoin-backed loans and runs its own real-time payments network. Silvergate banks for some of the largest companies in crypto including Coinbase, FTX, Kraken, Gemini and Circle.

Source: Silvergate Earnings Finally Catching Crypto Winter Chill


Critics by Michael Bellusci

Silvergate Capital (SI) is no longer on track to bring its own stablecoin to market this year, though CEO Alan Lane said the company continues to work closely with regulators on the matter.

“We’re certainly disappointed that it looks like we’re gonna miss our goal of launching it this year,” Lane said during Silvergate’s earnings conference call Tuesday. The company, Lane added, is working diligently to build its operational and regulatory compliance “muscle” to ensure a smooth launch.

At the start of this 2022, Silvergate bought the technology and other assets from Diem – the stablecoin project from Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) that was first announced as Libra back in June 2019.

The delay isn’t related to any technology issues for the project, said Lane, who still believes Silvergate is in a strong position versus other banks to bring its own tokenized dollar to the blockchain.

Silvergate shares fell over 20% in Tuesday’s trading session after reporting an earnings miss that included a slowdown in USD transfers and digital deposits, along with the stablecoin delay.


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A Recession is Now The Base Case Scenario For Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo slashed its economic outlook this week, with a year-end recession now the bank’s base case scenario as the Federal Reserve moves to tame red-hot inflation.

In an updated forecast, Wells Fargo cuts its 2022 GDP growth target to 1.5%, down from 2.2%, and slashed its 2023 target to a decline of 0.5%. The bank had previously predicted that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in a nation, would expand by 0.4% next year.

Overall, Wells Fargo expects a total peak-to-trough contraction of 1.3% across three quarters. By comparison, the economy shrunk 10% during the very brief, but sharp, pandemic-induced recession in 2020. During the 2008 financial crisis, the economy fell by 3.8%.

In making the new projection, Wells Fargo noted that “consumer activity has weakened” considerably as the economy confronts new COVID-19 outbreaks and restrictions, sky-high inflation and a strong U.S. dollar, in addition to the Russian war in Ukraine and aggressive Fed monetary policy.

Economic growth in the U.S. is already slowing. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported earlier this month that gross domestic product unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter of the year, marking the worst performance since the spring of 2020, when the economy was still deep in the throes of the COVID-induced recession.

Wells Fargo is not alone in its gloomy economic outlook; there are growing fears on Wall Street that the Fed may inadvertently trigger a recession with its war on inflation, which climbed by 8.3% in April, near a 40-year high. Other firms forecasting a downturn in the next two years include Bank of America, Fannie Mae and Deutsche Bank.

Fed policymakers already raised the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points earlier this month for the first time in two decades and have signaled that more, similarly sized rate hikes are on the table at coming meetings as they rush to catch up with inflation. Chairman Jerome Powell recently pledged that officials will “keep pushing” until inflation falls closer to the Fed’s 2% target.

Still, he has acknowledged there could be some “pain associated” with reducing inflation and curbing demand but pushed back against the notion of an impending recession, identifying the labor market and strong consumer spending as bright spots in the economy. Still, he has warned that a soft landing is not assured. 

“It’s going to be a challenging task, and it’s been made more challenging in the last couple of months because of global events,” Powell said Wednesday during a Wall Street Journal live event, referring to the Ukraine war and COVID lockdowns in China.

But he added that “there are a number of plausible paths to having a soft or soft-ish landing. Our job isn’t to handicap the odds, it’s to try to achieve that.”

Source: A recession is now the base case scenario for Wells Fargo | Fox Business

Wells Fargo & Co. clients are coping well with inflation and rising interest rates, which hasn’t yet stressed business at the bank, according to Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo.

“So far, so good,” he said Thursday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Clients come into this both on the consumer side and the corporate side in a much better position than they would have in other rising-rate environments.”

Wells Fargo reported first-quarter results earlier in the day, missing Wall Street estimates on revenue and expenses. Non-interest expenses were $13.9 billion, higher than what analysts had forecast. Revenue declined, bringing net income down to $3.7 billion, the San Francisco-based lender said in a statement

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Buffett’s Berkshire Buys Citigroup and Several other Stocks, Slashes Verizon

May 16 (Reuters) – Berkshire Hathaway Inc on Monday said it added new investments in Citigroup Inc and several other companies in the first quarter, as Warren Buffett’s conglomerate took advantage of volatile stock markets to invest $51.1 billion that had largely been sitting in cash.

In a regulatory filing describing its U.S.-listed equity investments as of March 31, Berkshire reported new stakes in Ally Financial Inc, chemicals and specialty materials company Celanese Corp, insurance holding company Markel Corp, drug distributor McKesson Corp and Paramount Global, formerly known as ViacomCBS.

Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire said it sold nearly all of an $8.3 billion stake in Verizon Communications Inc that it had amassed in late 2020.

Berkshire also finally exited Wells Fargo & Co, a 33-year-old investment that Buffett soured on after finding it too slow to address revelations that employees had mistreated customers, including by opening unwanted accounts.

Buffett’s company ended March with $106.3 billion of cash and equivalents, down from a near-record $146.7 billion three months earlier, largely reflecting the new investments.

These included previously disclosed stakes in Chevron Corp and Occidental Petroleum Corp, computer and printer maker HP Inc and video game maker Activision Blizzard Inc, the latter an arbitrage bet.

Stock sales totaled $9.7 billion, and also included drugmakers AbbVie Inc and Bristol-Myers Squibb Co .

Citigroup, where Berkshire invested nearly $3 billion, has embarked on a multiyear plan to boost performance and a share price that in recent years has lagged larger rivals JPMorgan Chase & Co and Bank of America Corp, the latter a major Berkshire investment.

Some investors have described Markel as a small-scale version of Berkshire, and Buffett in March committed $11.6 billion to buy another insurance holding company fitting that description, Alleghany Corp.

Berkshire also owns several companies specializing in Celanese’s sectors. Monday’s filing does not say which investments were made by Buffett and his portfolio managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler.

Most large Berkshire investments are Buffett’s. Stock prices often rise after Berkshire reveals new stakes because investors view the investments as a stamp of approval.

At Berkshire’s annual meeting on April 30, Buffett said investors were too focused on flashy stocks, causing markets at times to resemble a casino, allowing him to focus on stocks that Berkshire understands and which add value.

Analysts have also viewed Chevron and Occidental as a way for Berkshire to benefit from rising oil prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“I wish the rest of the world worked as well as our big oil companies,” Berkshire Vice Chairman Charlie Munger said at the annual meeting.

More than three-fourths of Berkshire’s $390.5 billion equity portfolio on March 31 was in American Express Co, Apple Inc, Bank of America, Chevron, Coca-Cola Co and Kraft Heinz Co. Berkshire owned 26.6% of Kraft Heinz. (Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York; Editing by Chris Reese, Bernard Orr).

By Jonathan Stempel

Source: UPDATE 1-Buffett’s Berkshire buys Citigroup and several other stocks, slashes Verizon


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The World’s Best Banks 2022: As Covid Recedes, Banks Get A Boost From Higher Rates But Inflation Could Spoil The Party

After more than a decade of declining interest rates, the Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point rate hike last month, the first since 2018, and signaled more to come in 2022, as many as six, in order to combat inflation.

This should improve banks ability to earn net interest margin, the lifeblood of most banks from an earnings standpoint and could be mimicked in other large economies at a time when inflation is causing damage to global economies and other central banks look to take similar action.

Mike Mayo, managing director and head of U.S. large-cap bank research at Wells Fargo Securities, says that 2021 was a strong year for large investment banks that could aggressively take advantage of a bull market and tailwinds of a soaring stock market.

However, Mayo says 2022, with its troubled markets, will produce headwinds for those financial titans and serve as a “passing of the baton in the banking industry” to Main Street banks that will thrive amidst the pandemic recovery that brings along more volumes of deposit and loans along with the aforementioned rising interest rates.

As the world emerges from two difficult pandemic years, the U.S. the economy has improved dramatically at a breakneck pace. Gross Domestic Product grew at 5.7% in 2021. However, the pandemic has left behind supply chain challenges and outsize inflation that keeps hitting new highs, the latest being a 8.5% measurement for March, the highest since 1981.

Despite runaway inflation, economists think inflation will soon recede. Swiss banking giant UBS is predicting that inflation for the rest of 2022 will drop to as low as 3.4% by December.

“The US economy is coming online faster and stronger than other parts of the world,” Mayo says. “As a result we will likely see a pickup in Main Street banking in terms of companies increasing their buildup of inventory and their capital expenditures and consumers drawing down their excess savings to spend and travel.”

Bank stocks have had an underwhelming run in early 2022. While there have been marketwide struggles, the S&P 500 is down nearly 6.7% year to date, financial stocks have suffered even greater losses with the iShares U.S. Regional Bank ETF down 9.18% year to date. This comes on the heels of a strong year for bank stocks, with that same iShares ETF up 38.9% last year, outpacing the S&P 500 at 26.89% in 2021.

“We are facing challenges at every turn: a pandemic, unprecedented government actions, a strong recovery after a sharp and deep global recession, a highly polarized U.S. election, mounting inflation, a war in Ukraine and dramatic economic sanctions against Russia,” said Jamie Dimon, CEO of the largest bank in the U.S. JPMorgan Chase JPM , in his annual letter to investors.

Looking forward, Dimon said he does not envy the Fed because it is likely to have to raise rates significantly higher than expected. While Dimon struck an optimistic tone that “if the Fed gets it just right, we can have years of growth, and inflation will eventually start to recede,” he conceded that the road to those greener pastures will be paved with consternation and volatility.

“The Fed should not worry about volatile markets unless they affect the actual economy. A strong economy trumps market volatility,” he added.

Outside the U.S., the economic recovery from the pandemic has not been as rapid, particularly in the world’s second largest economy, China, where a policy of “zero Covid” and less effective vaccinations than Western nations has led to a seemingly unending pandemic and shutdowns as recently as this month in Shanghai.

In the midst of global turmoil and a naggingly persistent pandemic, Forbes’ fourth annual list of the World’s Best Banks, which is published in partnership with market research firm Statista, surveys more than 45,000 customers in 27 countries to determine its ranking. Survey participants were asked their opinions on both their current and former banking relationships, defined as all financial institutions that offer a checking and/or savings account.

Click here for the Forbes list of World’s Best Banks.

Banks were rated on overall recommendation and satisfaction which were weighted the most as well as five other subdimensions: trust; terms and conditions; digital services; customer services; and financial advice.

The results yielded between 5 and 75 banks per country with a minimum score of 70 out of 100 and selected depending on the score achieved, the number of evaluations collected, the number of active banks in the specific country as well as the respective population in the country and number of banks with enough evaluations.

The U.S. has the largest number of awarded banks at 75, followed by Japan with 45 and Germany with 35 while 7 countries had the lowest number of 5. There were 27 countries with awarded banks.

The top five banks from the U.S. were Lincoln, Nebraska based Union Bank & Trust, Fargo, North Dakota-based Gate City Bank, Georgia-based United Community Bank UCBI , USAA, a lender open to members of the U.S. military and their families, making the cut as well as Boston-based Eastern Bank Corporation, a sign of the strength of regional banking with all but USAA having less than 2500 employees.

In Japan, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, an internet bank founded in 2007 by SBI Holdings and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, which was also listed, took the top spot showing the strength of upstart banks leading into the fintech space.

The top German bank was Sparda-Bank Hessen, a subsidiary of a series of cooperative banks known as Sparda-Banken that has a small employee count of 254 and was founded in 1897.

I’m a wealth management staff writer at Forbes based in New York. Prior to joining Forbes, I was on the same beat for Private Asset Management. I also

Source: The World’s Best Banks 2022: As Covid Recedes, Banks Get A Boost From Higher Rates But Inflation Could Spoil The Party


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Here’s Why Big Bank Stocks Like JPMorgan Are Struggling Despite Solid Earnings

Shares of several major banks tanked on Friday—even after reporting solid quarterly earnings—as reports underwhelmed investors and some firms warned about rising expenses and “inflationary pressures,” which could impact future profits.

Key Facts

Shares of JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. bank by assets, lost nearly 6% on Friday, despite beating profit and revenue estimates. It was the bank’s smallest earnings beat in the last seven quarters, and JPMorgan’s CFO lowered guidance on company-wide returns, citing “headwinds” including “inflationary pressures.”

Shares of Citigroup similarly fell over 2% after reporting solid revenue and profit numbers, as investors were particularly alarmed by the bank’s steep drop in profits.

The company’s net income fell 26% in the fourth quarter, with Citigroup blaming rising expenses for the sharp decline.

The only major bank to report earnings and buck the trend on Friday was Wells Fargo, shares of which jumped nearly 3% after better-than-expected revenue and a large jump in profits.

The fourth-largest U.S. bank by assets, Wells Fargo said lending activity is picking up again, adding that the latest quarterly results were boosted by an $875 million reserve release, which had been set aside to shield against loan losses.

Key Background:

Bank stocks have outperformed in recent weeks amid a rising interest rate environment, with many analysts predicting upside ahead in 2022. Rising rates typically allow banks to charge more for loans and produce higher yields on cash holdings, which helps boost profit margins. While headline revenue and profit numbers reported by some major banks on Friday were by no means weak, the reports appear to have underwhelmed Wall Street with investors possibly expecting more.

Crucial Quote:

“The big thing that stands out to us is expenses,” says Vital Knowledge founder Adam Crisafulli, predicting that it is “likely to be a theme over the coming weeks as additional Q4 results get reported.” JPMorgan’s rising expense guidance, in particular, is the “most important piece of macro news all week” because it signals the rising risks of both wage inflation and corporate margin headwinds, he says.

Surprising Fact:

Wells Fargo was one of the top-performing bank stocks last year, surging 59% and beating out the likes of JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, which rose around 25% and 47% in 2021, respectively.

The Fed (Powell) says the economy is strong and has signaled several rate hikes beginning in March. The data (and the Fed’s own Beige Book) say otherwise. But this politicized Fed appears to have no choice as the Administration’s poll ratings are at record lows, much of it due to inflation. Unfortunately, the tools that the Fed has are inappropriate to fight a supply induced inflation. The ultimate consequences of their actions could possibly lead to a continuation of today’s high inflation levels.

The Headwinds

For the past two months, this blog worried that the “shortages” narrative had pulled holiday sales forward into October (+1.8%) and November (+0.3%) and that December sales would “disappoint.” That proved prescient.

Retail Sales fell in December by a non-trivial -1.9%. Non-store sales (read: Amazon) fell by a hard to believe -8.7% which gives credence to our hypothesis that demand was “pulled-forward.” For most of December, omicron wasn’t much of a concern. After-all, it was milder than delta and there were only a few cases.

Then the country got together for the holidays, and now omicron is everywhere. Surely, January’s consumer data will be weaker. As for businesses, the tsunami of absenteeism is sure to have negative growth impacts. Into this mess, the Fed has pledged to tighten policy – surely a mistake!

The tailwinds that have propelled the economy (and caused the inflation) are gone:

  • The three rounds of “Helicopter Money” from the IRS ended last spring;
  • For those states that opted-in, Supplemental $300/week Unemployment Benefits ended in September;
  • The expanded child tax credits (for 2021 only) ended in December; no longer will families be receiving $300+/month for each child in their household under 18 years of age;
  • Eviction moratoriums and rent deferrals have ended, meaning rent payments (and likely some back rent) must now be made out of current income which will no longer be available for consumption;
  • While student loan payments continue to be deferred (until April 30), unless extended again, payments will soon be required; again, removing cash from the consumption stream;
  • Market interest rates have risen in anticipation of pre-announced Fed rate hikes. As a result, mortgage interest rates are rising. This will negatively impact mortgage applications which will slow the housing market and reduce growth (the “good” effect here is that home prices may stop rising).

The economic data has yet to reveal the full impact of the omicron variant:

· When the December employment surveys were taken (week of December 12-18), omicron wasn’t a big factor. Even so, December’s employment report was much weaker than expected. Omicron is sure to have a negative impact on the January employment surveys taken this past week (January 9-15).

We have already seen large spikes in the Initial Unemployment Claims (ICs), shown on the right-hand side of the chart. There are also spikes in the Continuing Claims data.

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I am a senior reporter at Forbes covering markets and business news. Previously, I worked on the wealth team at Forbes covering billionaire and their

Source: Here’s Why Big Bank Stocks Like JPMorgan Are Struggling Despite Solid Earnings


More contents:

Here’s Why Stocks Are Rallying Despite Another Dire Inflation Report (Forbes)

Stocks Surge After Powell Says Fed Not Afraid To Raise Rates Further If Higher Inflation Persists (Forbes)

Ford Blows Past $100 Billion Market Valuation As Shares Surge Thanks To Hot Electric Vehicle Plans (Forbes)

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