Wall Street Strategists Are Already Telling Clients What To Expect In 2021

And Wall Street strategists are starting to move on to 2021. In a note to clients published Thursday, Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies, unveiled his S&P 500 price target for 2021. And Darby expects stocks will continue going up next year.

“We expect the market to reach 3,750 by end of 2021,” Darby wrote, unveiling his year-ahead price target for the first time. On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed at 3,510, implying just under a 7% gain for the benchmark index through the end of next year.

Underpinning Darby’s positive outlook is an improved outlook for corporate earnings amid a strengthening economy and an accommodative Federal Reserve.

“All of our US macro-equity-bond indicators are positive or beginning to turn,” Darby writes.

S&P 500 earnings are finally beginning to reflect the better underlying health of the economy as the backlog of orders increases. Similarly, the Russell 3000 earnings are just turning at the same time as job openings are recovering.”

Darby adds that, “One key underwriter for the markets, under either candidate, has been the Fed with its intervention in both fixed income and credit markets. The influence of the Fed’s balance sheet should not be underestimated as the forward PE ratio has certainly tracked the ‘excess money’ in the economy.”

So while some may argue that the Fed is “out of ammo” after the unprecedented expansion of its credit facilities in the early part of this pandemic, the Fed is still a driving force behind flows in the market. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank’s stance, saying at a press conference, “We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and to help assure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust as possible.”

And as Canaccord Genuity’s Tony Dwyer wrote in a note to clients this week, “Remember, a significant and sustainable period of economic retrenchment comes when there is a need for money to fund forward growth but very little access to it. The opposite is true today.”

Darby also expects the political situation to serve as a tailwind to investors. At least as far as market history is concerned.

As of Friday morning, the race for president had yet to be called. However, former Vice President Joe Biden’s odds of winning improved as he took the lead in the battleground state of Georgia over President Trump. Meanwhile, the prospect of a “blue wave” in Congress has been all but ruled out by investors.

In scenarios where a Democrat is in the White House but Republicans control at least one chamber of Congress, average returns for U.S. equities have been fantastic, with the S&P 500 rising an average of 33.9% during these periods since 1989.

Divided government under Democratic presidents has been great for the stock market over the last three decades. (Source: Jefferies)

As Darby writes, “Although we think the equity markets ‘churn’ until a result is determined, history suggests that periods of Democrat Gridlocked Congress tend to deliver positive returns.”

By Myles Udland, reporter and anchor for Yahoo Finance Live. Follow him at @MylesUdland

What to watch today


  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Change in Non-farm Payrolls, October (593,000 expected, 661,000 in September)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Unemployment Rate, October (7.7% expected, 7.9% in September)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month, October (0.2% expected, 0.1% in September)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Average Hourly Earnings year-over-year, September (4.6% expected, 4.7% in September)
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Labor Force Participation Rate, October (61.5% expected, 61.4% in September)
  • 10:00 a.m. ET: Wholesale Inventories month-over-month, September final (-0.1% in prior print)



  • Before market open: Viacom (VIAC) is expected to report adjusted earnings of 81 cents per share on revenue of $5.96 billion
  • 6:00 a.m. ET: Coty (COTY) is expected to report an adjusted loss of 20 cents per share on revenue of $1.14 billion
  • 6:30 a.m. ET: CVS Health Corp (CVS) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.33 per share on revenue of $66.66 billion
  • 7:00 a.m. ET: Marriott International (MAR) is expected to report an adjusted loss of 8 cents per share on revenue of $2.23 billion

Top News

US election fuels strong week of gains on global stock markets [Yahoo Finance UK]

Uber beats Q3 earnings expectations powered by growth in Eats business, Rides falls short [Yahoo Finance]

Petco retail chain says it’s filed confidentially for U.S. IPO [Bloomberg]

Tesla unveils ‘Tesla Tequila’ for $250, product sold-out on website [Reuters]


How Trump’s legal woes will worsen once he leaves office

Connecticut would consider legalizing marijuana, says governor

These states suffer the worst unemployment as the pandemic recovery continues

Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, SmartNews, LinkedIn, YouTube, and reddit.

Find live stock market quotes and the latest business and finance news

For tutorials and information on investing and trading stocks, check out CashayTags

More From Yahoo Finance:

By: Myles Udland



CNBC Television

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, joins “Squawk Box” to discuss what trends he expects to see in the market as he looks ahead to 2021. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2NGeIvi » Subscribe to CNBC TV: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCtelevision » Subscribe to CNBC: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBC » Subscribe to CNBC Classic: https://cnb.cx/SubscribeCNBCclassic Turn to CNBC TV for the latest stock market news and analysis. From market futures to live price updates CNBC is the leader in business news worldwide. The News with Shepard Smith is CNBC’s daily news podcast providing deep, non-partisan coverage and perspective on the day’s most important stories. Available to listen by 8:30pm ET / 5:30pm PT daily beginning September 30: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/29/the-n… Connect with CNBC News Online Get the latest news: http://www.cnbc.com/ Follow CNBC on LinkedIn: https://cnb.cx/LinkedInCNBC Follow CNBC News on Facebook: https://cnb.cx/LikeCNBC Follow CNBC News on Twitter: https://cnb.cx/FollowCNBC Follow CNBC News on Instagram: https://cnb.cx/InstagramCNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/select/best-cred…#CNBC#CNBCTV

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

%d bloggers like this: