What’s Happening With Clean Energy Fuels Stock?

Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ: CLNE), a company best known for collecting and transporting renewable natural gas that is produced from the organic waste collected at dairy farms and related sources, has seen its stock rise by about 15% over the last month (about 21 trading days). This compares to the S&P 500 which has gained 4% over the same period.

The recent gains are driven by new contract wins, including a deal to build a hydrogen station and supply liquid hydrogen fuel for Foothill Transit, a southern California bus service. Moreover, Clean Energy Fuels also won a deal to supply about 78 million gallons of liquified natural gas to World Fuel Services for two container ships.

So is CLNE stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 54% chance of a rise in CLNE stock over the next month. See our analysis on Clean Energy Fuels Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Five Days: CLNE -1.9%, vs. S&P 500 4%; Underperformed market

(41% Event Probability)

• Clean Energy stock declined -1.9% over a five-day trading period ending 10/20/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose 4%.
• A change of -1.9% or more over five trading days has a 41% event probability, which has occurred 1021 times out of 2516 times in the last ten years.
• Clean Energy stock rose 14% over a ten-day trading period ending 10/20/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose 4%.
• A change of 14% or more over ten trading days has an 11% event probability, which has occurred 287 times out of 2516 times in the last ten years.

Twenty-One Days: CLNE 15%, vs. S&P 500 4.3%; Outperformed market

(17% Event Probability)

• Clean Energy stock rose 15% over a twenty-one-day trading period ending 10/20/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose 4%.
• A change of 15% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 17% event probability, which has occurred 424 times out of 2516 times in the last ten years.

See our theme on Hydrogen Economy Stocks for an overview of U.S. companies that sell hydrogen fuel cells, related renewable energy equipment, and supply hydrogen gas.

[8/17/2021] Is Clean Energy Fuels Stock A Buy?

Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ: CLNE), a company best known for collecting and transporting renewable natural gas that is produced from the animal waste collected at dairy farms and related sources, has seen its stock decline by about 8% over the last five trading days and remains down by about 5% over the past month (21 trading days).

In comparison, the S&P 500 was up by roughly 1% over the last week. The recent decline follows the company’s mixed Q2 2021 earnings that were published in early August. While revenues rose 29% year-over-year to $79 million, on the back of higher delivery volumes, net losses widened due to some one-time charges.

So is the stock likely to correct further, or is a rally looking more likely? Per the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which analyzes historical stock price data, CLNE stock has a roughly equal chance of a rise or a fall over the next month. See our dashboard analysis on CLNE Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

Now is CLNE stock a buy for longer-term investors? We think it’s worth a look. Although Clean Energy Fuels’ performance in recent years has been mixed, with the company posting little or no revenue growth, things are poised to only get better from here.

There is increasing urgency to fight climate change among governments and big businesses, and this should play to Clean Energy Fuels’ strengths. The company supplies conventional natural gas as well as renewable natural gas, which can be used to power heavy-duty trucks and buses while effectively producing negative greenhouse gas emissions.

Clean Energy’s RNG sales are projected to rise driven by more favorable regulation as well as deals with top energy companies such as Total, and BP, and retail behemoth Amazon, which has a five-year contract to buy RNG from the company. Clean Energy is also investing in bolstering its RNG supply, with plans to increase RNG production to 100% of the total supply mix, up from about 40% last year.

Although the stock trades at a relatively high 5.5x forward revenue, the company’s leading position in the RNG space, the sizable market opportunity, as well as potential regulatory tailwinds could make the stock worth considering.

[6/1/2021] Why Clean Energy Fuels Stock Is Up 3.5x Over The Last Year

Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ NDAQ +1.4%: CLNE), a company best known for supplying natural gas, has seen its stock price rally by over 270% over the last 12 months, with the stock now trading at levels of close to $8 per share, although it remains down from levels of around $18 seen in February.

This compares to the S&P 500 which is up by just about 37% over the last 12 months. The rally comes despite a weak financial performance, with the company recording no growth between 2017 and 2019 as sales stood at levels of around $340 million, with sales declining to about $290 million in 2020.

Clean Energy Fuels has also remained largely unprofitable over its 14 years as a public company. However, the markets are valuing the company much more richly, with its P/S multiple, based on trailing sales, rising from 0.9x in 2017 to about 5.4x currently. So is Clean Energy Fuels stock still a buy? We think it is, for a couple of reasons.

See our analysis on What’s Driving Clean Energy Fuels Stock’s 270% Rally? for an overview of how CLNE’s key financial and valuation metrics have trended.

Clean Energy Fuels is best known for its fueling network of over 540 stations across the United States, engaged in the supply of compressed natural gas, liquified natural gas, and renewable natural gas. However, much of the company’s surging valuation likely comes from its focus on expanding its RNG business.

RNG is produced when organic waste from landfills, dairy farms, and other sources decomposes and releases methane gas, which is then further processed and purified. RNG is viewed as a clean fuel and is classified as a carbon-negative in states such as California, considering its feedstock such as dairy cow waste is a key source of greenhouse gas emissions, and by using this it takes more carbon out of the environment than it produces.

This makes the fuel very attractive from an environmental standpoint and governments are incentivizing this via potentially lucrative federal and state-level renewable credits.

While about 40% of the Clean Energy Fuels gas sold in 2020 came from RNG, it is targeting a 100% mix of RNG at all its fuel stations within the next five years. Major corporations have also shown a lot of interest in the RNG space with Clean Energy Fuels recently signing deals to build renewable natural gas fuel facilities and infrastructure with energy giants Total (NYSE: TOT) and BP (NYSE: BP).

While RNG is used predominately in the transportation sector, powering heavy vehicles, it could eventually be used for electricity generation and even as a raw material for hydrogen production, giving it a massive addressable market.

The outlook for Clean Energy Fuels financials is also looking better. Sales are projected to grow by about 10% each year over 2021 and 2022, per consensus estimates, with the company also likely to break even in 2022. Now although a 5x plus forward revenue multiple is somewhat high, the company’s leading position in the renewable natural gas space, the sizable market potential, regulatory tailwinds under the Biden Administration, and the recent correction make the stock worth a look.

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