Dow’s Cash Flow Increases The Safety Of Its Dividend Yield

On a price return basis, the Safest Dividend Yields Model Portfolio (+4.4%) outperformed the S&P 500 (+3.8%) by 0.6% from June 23, 2022 through July 19, 2022. On a total return basis, the Model Portfolio (+4.8%) outperformed the S&P 500 (+3.8%) by 1.0% over the same time. The best performing large cap stock was up 12% and the best performing small cap stock was up 14%. Overall, nine out of the 20 Safest Dividend Yield stocks outperformed their respective benchmarks (S&P 500 and Russell 2000) from June 23, 2022 through July 19, 2022.

This Model Portfolio only includes stocks that earn an attractive or very attractive rating, have positive free cash flow and economic earnings, and offer a dividend yield greater than 3%. Companies with strong free cash flow provide higher quality and safer dividend yields because I know they have the cash to support the dividend. I think this portfolio provides a uniquely well-screened group of stocks that can help clients outperform.

Since its spin-off from Dupont De Nemours Inc. (DD) in 2019, Dow has grown revenue by 13% compounded annually and net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) by 65% compounded annually. Dow’s NOPAT margin rose from 6% in 2019 to 13% over the trailing twelve months (TTM), while invested capital turns improved from 0.7 to 1.1 over the same time. Rising NOPAT margins and invested capital turns drive the company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) from 4% in 2019 to 14% TTM.

Figure 1: Dow’s Revenue and NOPAT Since 2019

Dow has increased its regular dividend from $2.10/share in 2019 to $2.80/share in 2021. The current quarterly dividend, when annualized, provides a 5.5% dividend yield.

Dow’s free cash flow (FCF) comfortably exceeds its regular dividend payments. From 2019 to 2021, Dow generated $16.0 billion (43% of current market cap) in FCF while paying $5.7 billion in dividends. Over the TTM, Dow has generated $6 billion in FCF and paid $2 billion in dividends. See Figure 2.

Figure 2: Dow’s FCF vs. Regular Dividends Since 2019

Companies with strong FCF provide higher quality dividend yields because the firm has the cash to support its dividend. Dividends from companies with low or negative FCF cannot be trusted as much because the company may not be able to sustain paying dividends.

DOW Is Undervalued

At its current price of $52/share, DOW has a price-to-economic book value (PEBV) ratio of 0.3. This ratio means the market expects Dow’s NOPAT to permanently decline by 70%. This expectation seems overly pessimistic given that Dow grew NOPAT by 65% compounded annually since 2019.

Even if Dow’s NOPAT margin falls to 9% (vs. 13% over the TTM) and the company’s NOPAT falls 5% compounded annually over the next decade, the stock would be worth $75+/share today – a 44% upside. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. Should the company’s NOPAT not fall at such a steep rate, or even grow from current levels, the stock has even more upside.

Critical Details Found in Financial Filings by My Firm’s Robo-Analyst Technology

Below are specifics on the adjustments I make based on Robo-Analyst findings in Dow’s 10-K and 10-Qs:

Income Statement: I made $3.1 billion in adjustments with a net effect of removing $930 million in non-operating expenses (2% of revenue).

Balance Sheet: I made $16.6 billion in adjustments to calculate invested capital with a net increase of $11.3 billion. The most notable adjustment was $9.0 billion (18% of reported net assets) in other comprehensive income.

Valuation: I made $24.1 billion in adjustments with a net effect of decreasing shareholder value by $19.8 billion. Apart from total debt, one of the most notable adjustments to shareholder value was $6.1 billion in underfunded pensions. This adjustment represents 16% of Dow’s market value.

Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, Matt Shuler, and Brian Pellegrini receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, style, or theme.

New Constructs leverages reliable fundamental data to provide unconflicted insights into the fundamentals and valuation of private and public businesses.

Source: Dow’s Cash Flow Increases The Safety Of Its Dividend Yield

Critics by Macrotrends

Dow annual/quarterly free cash flow history and growth rate from 2017 to 2022. Free cash flow can be defined as a measure of financial performance calculated as operating cash flow minus capital expenditures.

  • Dow free cash flow for the quarter ending June 30, 2022 was 2,607.00, a year-over-year.
  • Dow free cash flow for the twelve months ending June 30, 2022 was , a year-over-year.
  • Dow annual free cash flow for 2021 was $4.79B, a 18.72% decline from 2020.
  • Dow annual free cash flow for 2020 was $5.893B, a 48.51% increase from 2019.
  • Dow annual free cash flow for 2019 was $3.968B, a 91.69% increase from 2018.

Dow annual/quarterly revenue history and growth rate from 2017 to 2022. Revenue can be defined as the amount of money a company receives from its customers in exchange for the sales of goods or services. Revenue is the top line item on an income statement from which all costs and expenses are subtracted to arrive at net income.

  • Dow revenue for the quarter ending June 30, 2022 was $15.664B, a 12.81% increase year-over-year.
  • Dow revenue for the twelve months ending June 30, 2022 was $60.129B, a 30.19% increase year-over-year.
  • Dow annual revenue for 2021 was $54.968B, a 42.62% increase from 2020.
  • Dow annual revenue for 2020 was $38.542B, a 10.27% decline from 2019.
  • Dow annual revenue for 2019 was $42.951B, a 13.41% decline from 2018.

Current and historical gross margin, operating margin and net profit margin for Dow (DOW) over the last 10 years. Profit margin can be defined as the percentage of revenue that a company retains as income after the deduction of expenses. Dow net profit margin as of June 30, 2022 is 11.06%.

Current and historical p/e ratio for Dow (DOW) from 2017 to 2022. The price to earnings ratio is calculated by taking the latest closing price and dividing it by the most recent earnings per share (EPS) number. The PE ratio is a simple way to assess whether a stock is over or under valued and is the most widely used valuation measure. Dow PE ratio as of August 03, 2022 is 5.40.

Current and historical current ratio for Dow (DOW) from 2017 to 2022. Current ratio can be defined as a liquidity ratio that measures a company’s ability to pay short-term obligations. Dow current ratio for the three months ending June 30, 2022 was 1.64.

Historical dividend payout and yield for Dow (DOW) since 2021. The current TTM dividend payout for Dow (DOW) as of August 03, 2022 is $2.80. The current dividend yield for Dow as of August 03, 2022 is 5.43%.

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You’ll Be Shocked To Learn What Happens After A Recession Ends

The United States may be better off than you think. Currently, the big concern and preoccupation for people is whether or not the U.S. will be heading into a recession. It’s the big boogeyman hiding in the closet that people are all supposed to be afraid of.

Of course, it’s not pleasant when the economy contracts and people lose their jobs, savings and investments. However, you can’t simply look at the job market, economy and financial markets in a snapshot picture. There are ebbs and flows over time. Short term, the situation may look bleak. Looking over the horizon, everything could turn around, as history has proven.

Recessions Create Opportunities

Many well-known, fabulously successful companies were started during recessions and economic downturns. Recessions, stock market plunges and periods of high unemployment occur relatively regularly. It’s baked into the system. The U.S. economy swings like a pendulum in boom and bust cycles. For context, if you are a Baby Boomer, you have lived through nearly a dozen recessions.

Now-Famous Companies That Started Out In A Recession

  • Hewlett-Packard (1937-1938 Recession)
  • Hyatt Hotels (1957-1958 Recession)
  • Microsoft (1973-1975 Recession)
  • Electronic Arts (1981-1982 Recession)
  • Mailchimp (2001 & 2009 Recession)
  • Uber (2007-2009 Recession)
  • Airbnb (2007-2009 Recession)
  • Slack (2007-2009 Recession)
  • Warby Parker (2007-2009 Recession)
  • Venmo (2007-2009 Recession)

Why Are Businesses Started During Downturns?

During a downturn, people lose their jobs. With a lack of available options, a laid-off worker who harbored dreams of being an entrepreneur now doesn’t have any excuses to wait any longer. There is a feeling of, “It’s so bad that it can’t get any worse, so I might as well take the shot.”

As other people are downsized, you may be able to recruit talent for your emerging enterprise. When the economy craters, it creates new opportunities for budding business owners to solve new problems.

Stock Market Crashes And How Long It Takes To Recover

In 1929, the stock market crashed and the U.S. entered into the Great Depression. Without the public assistance Americans have access to now, families were left helpless. Wall Street professionals who lost their life savings had to panhandle for food. The stock market kept falling for a few more years and hit rock bottom in 1932. The market tumbled more than 80% lower than its all-time highs. It took over 20 years to recover.

In 1987, the “Black Monday” October crash happened. Similar to present-day events, a long bull-market run that kept the stock market moving higher without any corrections to cool it off ended badly, plummeting 22.6%. It took roughly two years to make a comeback.

In the late 1990s into 2000, the U.S. endured the dot-com boom and bust. Speculation in the newly emerging tech sector reached a fever pitch. Stocks were priced at ridiculously high levels based on the euphoria that these new tech darlings would change the world overnight.

Instead of valuing companies based on traditional price-to-earnings metrics, Wall Street research analysts pointed to the number of clicks a website received as evidence that the tech company was a terrific buy. However, the bubble ultimately burst in March 2000. The S&P 500, a benchmark used to gain an overall perspective of the financial markets, cratered—free falling more than 50% from its highs. It took about seven years to recover.

Shortly after the dot-com burst, there was another bubble emerging. In 2008, banks made reckless loans that enabled people to purchase homes that they couldn’t afford, if the economy cooled down. The U.S. had a housing bubble that lead to a subprime mortgage crisis. Sure enough, when the adjustable interest rates kicked in, families couldn’t make the higher monthly mortgage payments. Many lost their homes. The S&P 500 lost nearly half of its value. Around two years later, the market climbed back.

At the onset of the Covid-19, the stock market plunged more than 30% in February to March 2020. In this case, due to interventions by the U.S. federal government and Federal Bank actions, it only took about six months to climb back up again.

After all the gyrations, the end results were largely positive. You would have come out ahead if you were brave enough to invest during these difficult times. For example, a small investment of $100 in the S&P 500, at the beginning of 2009, would have represented a 582.13% return on your investment by the 2021 year-end.

It’s hard to come to grips with the economy and stock market vicissitudes. Recessions happen on a regular basis, as it’s part of the capitalistic cycle. The U.S. may need to endure some rocky times for the foreseeable future. However, if history repeats, it may take some time, but Americans will soon see better days.

What’s likely to happen is that after a few years, the government and Fed will forget about the past and enact more accommodative policies that will lead to another bull run, which will go to excess and ultimately burst. Then, the cycle will start all over again.

I am a CEO, founder, and executive recruiter at one of the oldest and largest global search firms in my area of expertise.

Source: You’ll Be Shocked To Learn What Happens After A Recession Ends

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Wall Street Firms Slash S&P 500 Price Targets As ‘Concerned’ Analysts Warn Of Earnings Slowdown

A handful of Wall Street’s biggest firms are slashing their S&P 500 forecasts for the year, predicting lower stock market returns thanks to a difficult quarterly earnings season ahead as companies wrestle with surging inflation and rising interest rates.

With the stock market down roughly 20% so far this year amid fears of a looming recession, there are “lots of reasons to be concerned” about upcoming corporate earnings—with an incoming “flurry of downward revisions,” Bank of America warned in a recent note.

Though quarterly earnings season has just started, Wall Street analysts are slashing forecasts—with seven out of 11 S&P 500 sectors facing reduced earnings estimates, according to FactSet data. UBS on Monday slashed its earnings forecasts due to slowing economic growth and rising costs, with the firm also reducing its year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4,150—down from a previous estimate of 4,850.

Evercore ISI also cut its year-end S&P 500 target the same day, to 4,200 from 4,300, as analysts sounded the alarm on corporate margins and earnings being “under pressure as prospective recession scenarios develop.”One of Wall Street’s biggest bears (who has also warned of further downward earnings revisions) is Morgan Stanley chief strategist Mike Wilson who is maintaining a year-end S&P 500 target of just 3,900, while also predicting the index could fall as low as 3,000 if a recession hits.

Even some of Wall Street’s most optimistic strategists are slashing their S&P forecasts somewhat, including Oppenheimer chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus, who reduced his estimate to 4,800 from 5,330 amid “palpable risks of recession.”

Despite the gloomier forecasts recently, most Wall Street firms still predict a market rebound by the end of 2022, with the majority of price targets implying modest upside from the S&P 500’s current level of around 3,850. UBS and Evercore ISI’s most recent forecasts for the benchmark index both imply roughly 8% upside from current prices, while Oppenheimer’s price target suggests the market will rally nearly 25%. Even Morgan Stanley’s bearish outlook of 3,900 would mean stocks post a slight gain by the end of the year..

Even as recession fears remain front and center, not all Wall Street firms are forecasting an economic downturn. Analysts at Credit Suisse, for instance, also slashed their S&P 500 price target (to 4,300 from 4,900) but argued that the economy’s current slowdown is not recessionary. “Recessions are most accurately characterized by a meltdown in employment accompanied by an inability of consumers and businesses to meet their financial obligations,” Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Golub said in a note on Tuesday.

“While we are currently experiencing a meaningful slowdown in economic growth (from extremely high levels), neither of the above conditions are present today.” UBS strategist Keith Parker similarly sees slowing growth “but no recession,” with modest gains for the stock market ahead as he predicts high inflation will eventually subside.

Investors remain “nervous” about the upcoming inflation report on Wednesday, with experts predicting that consumer prices for June will surge higher than the 8.6% recorded in May.

I am a senior reporter at Forbes covering markets and business news. Previously, I worked on the wealth team at Forbes covering billionaires and their wealth.

Source: Wall Street Firms Slash S&P 500 Price Targets As ‘Concerned’ Analysts Warn Of Earnings Slowdown

Critics:

The S&P 500 Index (US500) has reacted to the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s ultra-hawkish stance by shedding over 20% in the first six months of 2022. 

As Fed chair Jerome Powell puts his foot on the pedal and accelerates quantitative tightening, investors now fear that decreasing money supply will push the US economy into a recession. Analysts remain divided on the likelihood of a recession as they await economic data, which remains key in anticipating the severity of rate hikes in the second half of the year.

S&P Global summed up the current market sentiment in its third quarter US economic outlook report: “We expect that the Fed raising interest rates and reducing its balance sheet will be enough to eventually begin to tame inflation and help restore real wage strength and purchasing power. The question is whether it will push the US into recession as well.”

After hitting its lowest level since December 2020, the S&P 500 rebounded by over 6% in the fourth week of June, breaking a three-week losing streak in the process as short squeezes caught bears off guard. Jefferies called the current market sentiment “extreme” in a note dated 27 June, having seen net S&P 500 futures turn to net short, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) S&P 500 speculative net positions data for week ended 24 June.

“Thoroughly depressed sentiment, an extreme in short positions and rising cash levels are creating a vicious short squeeze,” said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies. Despite seeing a recent rally in prices, the S&P 500 posted losses of close to 9% in June. As of 6 July 2022, the US benchmark index has lost close to 20% year-to-date (YTD).
In comparison, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index has slumped nearly 30% in the same period, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average index has shed about 15%. Based on the 5 July close of 3,831.4, the S&P 500 remains below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 3866.9.  After dropping to near oversold zones on 16 June, the index’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to a near-neutral zone of 56 points, as of 6 July.

The Jefferies report said that “investors are now holding high levels of cash after one of the worst drawdowns in modern history”. The report showed that the S&P 500’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings was “just above” its long-term average.  “The multiple correction has been driven by long rates and not necessarily earnings revisions,” added Jefferies. As of 6 July 2022, the S&P 500 index was about 20% away from its all-time high of 4,818, which it reached on 3 January 2022.

By Mensholong Lepcha

Related contents:

S&P 500 Loses Over 1% As Investors Brace For Shaky Earnings Season, Looming Inflation Report

Stocks Fall After U.S. Economy Adds Back 372,000 Jobs In June

Federal Reserve Prepares More Big Rate Hikes Amid Risk That High Inflation Could ‘Become Entrenched’

Stocks Close Out Worst First Half Of A Year Since 1970

Wall Street Chooses an Odd Time to Be Upbeat About Growth Stocks 

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Inflation Unexpectedly Spiked 8.6% In May Hitting 40-Year High As Gas Prices Surge Again

Consumer prices rose 8.6% in the 12 months ending in May, unexpectedly returning to record levels—and climbing at the quickest pace in four decades—amid an unprecedented surge in gas prices. Overall prices rose 1% from April—surpassing the 0.7% economists were expecting and much higher than the previous month’s increase of 0.3%, according to data released by the Labor Department on Friday.

The unexpected jump marks the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981, according to the release, and comes after prices in April fell on a monthly basis for the first time since August. The overall increase was the result of broad upticks across shelter, food and gas prices, which jumped 4% after falling 6.1% in April, the government said.

“So much for the idea that inflation has peaked,” Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride said in emailed comments after the report, noting that increases were “nearly ubiquitous.” Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.6% in May against an expectation of 0.5%; shelter prices rose at the fastest pace in 31 years while food prices climbed at the largest rate in more than 41 years.

Stock futures immediately fell after the worse-than-expected report, with the S&P 500 reversing early gains and falling 1.6% below Thursday’s closing level in premarket trading. In another concerning sign, used car prices, which McBride says “had been the ray of hope for easing price pressures” after three straight months of declines, jumped 1.8% for the month of May.

Rising energy prices have elevated inflation readings during the pandemic to the highest level in decades, and stocks have struggled in recent months as Federal Reserve officials work to combat the surge by unwinding the central bank’s pandemic-era stimulus measures. After rising 27% in 2021, the benchmark S&P 500 has tumbled 16% this year.

Meanwhile, oil prices have surged more than 15% over the past month with demand expected to spike this summer—adding to supply concerns spurred by intensifying sanctions against Russia, one of the world’s top oil-producing countries. “Any hopes that the Fed can ease up on the pace of rate hikes after the June and July meetings now seem to be a long shot,” says McBride. “Inflation continues to rear its ugly head and hopes for improvement have been dashed again.”

Since Monday, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline has increased by nine cents to $4.71. According to new data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), total domestic gasoline stocks decreased by 700,000 bbl to 219 million bbl last week. Meanwhile, gasoline demand grew from 8.8 million b/d to 8.98 million b/d as drivers fueled up for Memorial Day weekend travel.

These supply and demand dynamics have contributed to rising pump prices. Coupled with volatile crude oil prices, pump prices will likely remain elevated as long as demand grows and supply remains tight. At the close of Wednesday’s formal trading session, WTI increased by 59 cents to settle at $115.26. Crude prices have increased amid supply concerns from the market as the European Union works to implement a 90 percent ban on Russian oil imports by the end of this year.

Crude prices were also boosted by increased demand expectations from the market after China lifted COVID-19 restrictions in Shanghai. Additionally, EIA reported that total domestic stocks decreased by 5.1 million bbl to 414.7 million bbl last week. As a result, the current storage level is approximately 13.5 percent lower than a year ago, contributing to rising crude prices.

I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business

Source: Inflation Unexpectedly Spiked 8.6% In May—Hitting 40-Year High As Gas Prices Surge Again

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JP Morgan Warns of An Economic ‘Hurricane’ Coming: ‘Brace yourself’

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned of a looming economic “hurricane” caused by an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve, rising inflationary pressures and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Dimon – who said at the beginning of May there were storm clouds forming on the economic horizon – ratcheted up his warning on Wednesday, citing fresh challenges facing the Fed as it seeks to tame the hottest inflation in a generation.

“I said there were storm clouds. But I’m going to change it. It’s a hurricane,” he said during a conference hosted by AllianceBernstein Holdings. “Right now it’s kind of sunny, things are doing fine, everyone thinks the Fed can handle it. That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We don’t know if it’s a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself.”

There are two main issues that Dimon said are worrying him: The Federal Reserve moving to unwind its $8.9 trillion balance sheet, deploying a less-known tool known as quantitative tightening that will further tighten credit for U.S. households as officials try to tame red-hot inflation.

The rundown of the Fed’s portfolio is poised to begin on Wednesday at an initial combined monthly pace of $47.5 billion. The Fed will increase the runoff rate to $95 billion by September, putting the central bank on track to reduce its balance sheet by about $3 trillion over the next three years. We’ve never had QT like this, so you’re looking at something you could be writing history books on for 50 years,” Dimon said.

The second matter weighing on Dimon is the Russian-Ukraine war and its effect on the price of commodities like food and oil. The bank CEO said that oil could hit $150 or $175 a barrel as a result of the conflict, which began in late February. Brent crude, the benchmark, is currently selling for $116 a barrel. “Wars go bad. They go south. They have unintended consequences,” he said.

Dimon’s comment comes amid growing fears on Wall Street that the Fed may drag the economy into a recession as it seeks to tame inflation, which climbed by 8.3% in April, near a 40-year high. Bank of America, as well as Fannie Mae and Deutsche Bank, are among the Wall Street firms forecasting a downturn in the next two years, along with former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Policymakers raised the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points earlier this month for the first time in two decades and have signaled that more, similarly sized rate hikes are on the table at coming meetings as they rush to catch up with inflation.  Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has acknowledged there could be some “pain associated” with reducing inflation and curbing demand but pushed back against the notion of an impending recession, identifying the labor market and strong consumer spending as bright spots in the economy. Still, he has warned that a soft landing is not assured.

Source: Jamie Dimon warns of an economic ‘hurricane’ coming: ‘Brace yourself’ | Fox Business

Critics by : J.P. Morgan

October data showed that consumer prices in the United States rose at a 6.2% pace relative to last year, the fastest pace in 30 years. Food prices are 5% higher than they were last year. Used car prices are up 26%. Energy prices are up 30%. Shelter, one of the most critical sub-categories, has rapidly recovered to its pre-COVID 3.5% pace. The gains are broad based, and seem to be accelerating. Compared to last month, the median component is up almost 60 basis points, the highest reading back to 1983.

Rising prices pressure all spenders, especially those with low disposable incomes. However, only focusing on rising prices ignores important context. Over the last year, the economy has added almost 5.5 million private sector jobs. Aggregate earnings are up 4% annualized over the last two years versus prices up 3.7%. Retail sales are 15% higher than they were a year ago.

Yes, gasoline prices have soared to $3.40 per gallon relative to just $2.10 one year ago. But gas was also $3.40 per gallon in 2014, when incomes were 25% lower than they are now. The only sector that is seeing any demand destruction because of soaring prices and shortages is automobiles.

Economy wide corporate profits (before tax) are 16% higher. S&P 500 profit margins actually expanded in the third quarter despite expectations for a decline. Input and labor costs are surging, but so are sales. For now, inflation just comes with the territory of a booming economy, and a lower inflation environment would likely also be characterized by a weaker labor market and a more tepid jobs recovery.

There are compelling reasons why stock markets are still close to all-time highs. Third quarter earnings surprised to the upside, global supply chain pressures seem to be getting better, not worse (Vietnamese factory operations are normalizing and shipping costs are falling), and onerous corporate tax hikes seem increasingly unlikely.

Bond markets are a little more stressed, but given the circumstances, they have been relatively tame. Two-year bond yields have moved up by about 30 basis points since the start of October because investors are starting to think that the Federal Reserve will start raising rates soon in an effort to deal with inflation. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury bonds are yielding just over 1.5%. Why so low? Simply, because bond markets think that this surge in inflation will be temporary. Longer run inflation expectations are still well below where they were from 2000-2014.

Inflation has been strong all year and risk assets have hardly blinked. The mega cap tech sector was often cited as the one that was most at risk during an inflationary environment. The Nasdaq 100 is up over 25% this year.

What could change the picture is if the Federal Reserve makes an abrupt turn toward hawkish policy. And we don’t mean something like accelerating the pace of tapering asset purchases. We mean something like what happened in 1994, when the Fed raised rates by 300 basis points cumulatively because they thought they needed to act quickly to snuff out inflation. Even though corporate earnings grew around 20% that year, equity markets ended flat because cash got more and more attractive.

Another longer term risk is that the discourse around inflation is inherently political. Surging inflation now could make it less likely that policymakers opt for powerful fiscal stimulus during future downturns, which could delay economic recovery and be harmful for stocks.

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