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In 1903, The New York Times predicted it would take between 1 million and 10 million years to develop airplanes. The Wright Brothers took flight just nine weeks later. In 2023, the same levels of ambition, determination, and innovation will make green flight a reality, and the first commercial passenger planes fueled by hydrogen will take to the skies.
Aviation is the world’s fastest-growing contributor to climate change. According to a report by the International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation, by 2037 we will see an estimated doubling of air passengers to 8.2 billion. And by 2050, the sector could be responsible for as much as 22 percent of our total carbon emissions. We know that we have to cut global emissions in half by 2030—and that means addressing the rising contribution of the aviation sector, and quickly.
My company, ZeroAvia, is tackling the transition to zero-emission aviation through the development of hydrogen-electric engines for airplanes. These use hydrogen in fuel cells to generate electricity, which is then used to power electric motors to turn the aircraft’s propellers. Ultimately, we will put these engines in every type of aircraft—all the way up to large, commercial aircraft.
Why fuel cells? According to McKinsey, electric flight powered by hydrogen offers the best possible reduction in climate impact. Hydrogen fuel cells are between two and three times more energy efficient than current gas-guzzling fuel combustion engines. And the sole byproduct from these engines is water.
Alternatives, such as sustainable aviation fuel, do not tackle the problem of non-carbon emissions. Nitrogen oxides, particulates, soot, and high-temperature water vapor are all potent climate forcing agents. Combined, these have a larger climate change impact than carbon dioxide does alone. But for hydrogen-electric engines, they do not enter the equation.
What about batteries? Too heavy and too inefficient. Research from the University of Houston suggests eight airplanes would be required to carry the batteries needed to power a jumbo jet. What works for a Tesla doesn’t necessarily work for a Dreamliner.
Hydrogen is also abundant—as it can be produced from water—and it will only become cheaper to produce. According to PWC, the cost of green hydrogen will drop by 50 percent by 2030. On-site hydrogen production further lowers prices and makes the entire system zero-emission from end to end.
In 2023, we will finalize the design for the world’s first commercial hydrogen-electric aircraft engine, and we plan to enter the market by the following year. This will unlock commercial zero-emission flights of up to 300 miles, say, London to Glasgow, or San Francisco to Los Angeles. As well as powering new aircraft, hydrogen-electric engines can also be retro-fitted into existing planes, ensuring rapid market entry and enabling us to tackle the sector’s emissions sooner.
While converting the entire industry will take time, the road map is obvious. The UK’s Aerospace Technology Institute’s FlyZero project made it clear that hydrogen will be aviation’s fuel of the future. This year-long independent study commissioned by the UK government established that the first generation of zero-emission aircraft would need to include hydrogen technology by 2025.
Airbus is developing its own hydrogen-powered ZEROe concept aircraft and teaming up with Delta. Rolls-Royce is partnering with EasyJet on hydrogen combustion engines and exploring hydrogen fuel cells. Boeing is also beginning to embrace hydrogen’s potential, having run the first tests back in 2008.
The world’s biggest problem requires the farthest-reaching solutions, and support for hydrogen is growing in governments globally. Measures in the US Inflation Reduction Act will turbocharge the hydrogen economy, while the UK’s Jet Zero strategy aims to deliver net-zero aviation by the middle of the century. In 2023, accelerating innovation will meet this increasing political will, and hydrogen electricity will start the process of transforming aviation into a zero-emissions industry in a generation.
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Val Miftakhov is founder and CEO of ZeroAvia.
Source: Net-Zero Aviation Is Possible With Hydrogen Fuel Cells | WIRED UK
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The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report issued Monday night by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for the week ending Nov 23 revealed a three-fold increase in the number of short bitcoin futures contracts held by retail investors compared to the previous week. These holdings, called open interest, represent capital held at the CME as collateral for long and short trades.
Shattering the average number of short bitcoin futures held by retail traders (about 798 contracts through last week), the COT report showed a 200% jump in short bitcoin contracts from 887to 2,663. The monetary equivalent of this net short increase is $511 million, and it should be noted it did not come from trading in micro bitcoins (MBT) futures, which is still nascent and 20 times smaller than the BTC futures market.
This dramatic shift follows a temporary but equally sharp bullish (long bitcoin) move on the second half of October. Together, these moves suggest that perhaps wealthy retail investors, those able to purchase the typical $300,000 CME bitcoin futures contract, may be starting to place short-term speculative bets in tandem to profit from short-term movements in the volatile cryptocurrency market.
In recent weeks and months, the market for providing crypto trading insights has grown from trading platforms like LMAX Digital and Coinbase to also a few US banks with crypto research teams. Wealthy retail traders require specialized brokerage access to trade CME futures and this can be done through firms like ADM, Stonex, thinkorswim (owned by Schwab), and also a small number of investment banks that have authorized wealthy clients to buy and sell CME crypto futures.
One surprising development seen in the CME bitcoin futures market is the fluidity by which market participants take on and ease off trading risk. While retail traders are uncharacteristically short bitcoin presently, a small (eight to ten) group of asset managers active in CME futures have taken massive, long bitcoin futures positions in November, totaling more than 5,000 bitcoin futures contracts equivalent to $1.5 billion.
Thus, the long bitcoin futures holdings of commercial and retail traders seen in October amidst the ProShares BITO bitcoin ETF launch, ushered asset manager demand which they, in turn, received from institutional clients wanting a long bitcoin position in their funds.
Commercial traders, which are firms and/or professionals with deep industry and market knowledge generally hired to mitigate business risk through use of futures contracts, cut back sharply their long bitcoin futures holdings to pre-BITO levels but boosted sharply their ‘spread’ contracts – which is the practice of holding long and short positions in the same contract to provide liquidity to those who need it.
Separately and over recent weeks, this group of traders has built a large short position equivalent to $113 million worth of MBT futures contracts which makes them the largest short liquidity providers. Said differently, this group of traders went from facilitating liquidity for the large surge from bitcoin ETF in October to now getting back to a smaller exposure and selectively providing liquidity in new areas like MBTs.
Meanwhile retail traders shrewdly adopted the previously discussed short bitcoin futures position, betting on the price of bitcoin possibly falling below the $57,600 level bitcoin seen last week – bitcoin did fall to a low of 53,200 on Nov 28 and that could have provided some of these retail traders a profitable exit of their short trades – which become profitable as the price of an asset decreases in value.
The big picture remains bright for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at large as institutional demand continues to grow, with large asset managers like Vanguard and BlackRock allowing funds they manage to pour approximately $3 billion each into crypto stocks as of Nov 2021 and rival Fidelity nearly doubling to 200 their institutional clients – hedge funds, family offices, registered investment advisors, pensions and corporate treasuries – that use the firm’s bitcoin execution and custody services.
While bitcoin price has dropped 18% below its $69,000 Nov 10 high, this has been due to robust macro headwinds like rising inflation and the Omicron variant impact on the global economy, and not due to weak bitcoin demand. In fact, the sharp drop in crude oil prices – Brent crude oil price down 20%+ since Nov 10 – shows that Omicron uncertainty is providing an organic break to inflationary forces.
It will be weeks if not months until the world regains confidence that it can defeat the Omicron variant, and in the meanwhile it’s sensible to expect lower expectations for global economic growth, lower inflation, and a modest appreciation of risky assets like cryptocurrencies. For these reasons, shrewd investors will continue to look to crude oil price action as a proxy for the expected energy demand globally but also as a guide for bitcoin appreciation potential over the short term.Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Check out some of my other work here. Send me a secure tip.
I write about digital assets trends and am a leading creator of the Forbes Digital Assets tools and functionality our viewers require. I support the
It’s great that so many have copies of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, but very unfortunate that so few have read it. The alleged “supply chain” problems we’re enduring right now were explained by Smith in the book’s opening pages.
Smith wrote about a pin factory, and the then remarkable truth that one man in the factory working alone could maybe – maybe – produce one pin each day. But several men working together could produce tens of thousands.
Work divided is what enables the very work specialization that drives enormous productivity. If this was true in an 18th century pin factory, imagine how vivid the truth is today. Figure that something as basic as the creation of a pencil is the consequence of global cooperation, so what kind of remarkable global symmetry leads to the creation of an airplane, car, or computer? The kind that can’t be planned is the short answer, but more realistically the only answer.
Please keep this in mind as you read media coverage of the so-called “supply-chain disruptions” resulting in “shortages” that are said to be causing “inflation.” If you want a bigger laugh, read about what President Biden wants to do in order to get “supply” back on the market with an eye on replenishing U.S. retail shelves that are increasingly bare. He’s decreed 24-hour port operations! Yes, thanks to the 46th president we now know what held the Soviets back, and ultimately destroyed the Soviet Union: their ports weren’t open long enough; thus the shortages of everything…
All of the above would be funny if it weren’t so sad. Media members, “experts,” economists, and politicians don’t even disappoint anymore. To say they do would be to flatter them.
Either they think we have inflation, shortages, or a combination of both. Wrong on all counts. Really, who was talking about supply-chain shortages or the impossibility that is demand-driven inflation in early 2020? Very few were, and that’s because the U.S. economy was largely free then. At which point politicians panicked. And in panicking, they imposed a rather draconian form of command-and-control on the U.S. economy.
Some were free to work, some weren’t, and more still were free to work and operate their businesses within strict political limits. From freedom to central planning in a very small amount of time. At which point it’s worth considering once again the simple pin factory that Smith witnessed in the 18th century versus the global cooperation that was the norm 19 months ago.
The supply lines of February 2020 were impossibly complicated structures that no politician could ever hope to design. Think billions of individuals around the world pursuing their narrow work specialization on the way to enormous global plenty. Put another way, the shelves in economically free countries were heaving with all manner of products based on economic cooperation that was staggering in scope. Brilliant as some experts claim to be, and brilliant as some politicians think they are as they look in the mirror, they could never construct the web of trillions of economic relationships that prevailed before the lockdowns. But they could destroy the web. And they did; that, or they severely impaired it.
In which case let’s please not insult reason by talking about “shortages” or “inflation” now. Let’s instead be realistic and talk about central planning. We know from the 20th century that when politicians, authoritarians or both substitute their intensely narrow knowledge for that of the marketplace that immense want for very little (and lousy) supply is the logical result. Yes it is. When we’re not economically free, bare shelves are the inevitable result.
Conversely, product and service abundance is a certain consequence yet again of the infinite actions and trillions of economic relationships entered into by billions of people. These commercial tie-ups were constructed by consenting individuals over many years and many decades only for them to be wrecked by a political class arrogantly seeking to protect us from ourselves. That’s what happens when command-and-control replaces voluntary order. The remunerative ties that bind us fray, or vanish altogether. Consenting, profitable economic activity was suddenly illegal. Yet politicians and other experts are only now wringing their hands about a lack of supply?
Really, what did they think was going to happen? While politicians couldn’t ever create or legislate billions working together around the world, they could and can surely break voluntary economic arrangements. When you have guns, handcuffs, the power to quite literally shut off power sources to the productive, not to mention the wealth produced by the productive, you have the power to impose command-and-control. And so they did, only for the “supply chains” painstakingly created in self-interested but spontaneous form over many decades to suddenly break apart. Just don’t call it inflation, or shortages.
Inflation is a devaluation of the unit of account. In our case it’s the devaluation of the dollar. And while Treasury hasn’t always done a great job as the dollar’s steward over the decades, that’s just the point. Devaluation was routine problem in the 1970s, it ceased to be in the 80s and 90s, but it reared its ugly head once again during the George W. Bush administration in the early 2000s. To say inflation is a “now” thing is to ignore that it’s more realistically been a 21st century-long thing.
We don’t suddenly have an inflation problem. To say we do is the equivalent of saying that the Soviets had inflation because all the goods worth getting were both difficult to find, and incredibly expensive if they could be found. In our case we’ve had a lockdown problem care of nail-biting politicians that suffocated commercial cooperation around the world. And with work divided less than it used to be care of government force, productivity is naturally lower than it used to be.
Please consider modern productivity in terms of Smith’s pin factory example yet again, and ask what it would do to supply. The only thing is supply shortfalls are not evidence of inflation. A rise in one price due to lack of supply implies a fall in other prices. Yes, we have a central planning problem. Were he around today, Adam Smith could diagnose this in seconds.
I’m the editor of RealClearMarkets, and a senior economic adviser to Applied Finance Advisors. I’m also the author of five books. The most recent released in March is When Politicians Panicked: The New
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To this approach belongs at least in part an attempt to view mercantilism as economic dirigee, a planned economy with national economic objectives – ‘wealth’, ‘plenty’ or simply ‘welfare’ within the framework of the nation and at the expense of other nations.