Five Problems People Have When They Retire

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Everyone desires the sure thing, the safest path, and the most unquestionable of choices. But life is full of uncertainty, and there is no time like the present to see this. With uncertainty comes risk. Only gamblers find risk compelling. And that’s because they know how to manage it (or at least they think they do). Typically, though, no one likes risk.

Crossing the threshold into retirement magnifies the uncertainty you must deal with. Wouldn’t it be to your advantage to fully understand what those experienced with retirees see as the major problems people have when they retire? Here are five such problems for you to think about and possibly prepare for.

Organizing Finances

If you don’t plan, you plan to fail. The same goes for organizing your finances. Of the problems mentioned in this article, organizing your finances ranks as the one you should do well before you retire. By getting things in order in advance of retirement, you’ll better prepare yourself for the choices you have to make. “The main problem people face upon retirement is organizing their financial lives and finding new purpose,” says Robert Reilly, a member of the finance faculty at the Providence College School of Business and a financial advisor at PRW Wealth Management in Boston.

“If they have not already done some formal financial planning, replicating their old paycheck can be a daunting task. Most workers are used to a certain cycle for their paycheck and had a routine in place to pay their monthly bills. Significant time and effort can be required to figure out a new budget, new payment methods for healthcare and other major bills.”It’s natural to have several questions when you retire. Organizing your finances represents the best way to tackle the uncertainty of retirement.

“The two cornerstone questions faced by those anticipating retirement are ‘Am I going to be OK?’ and ‘Can I afford to financially support the lifestyle I have worked all my life toward?’ Neither of these questions can be answered with the level of accuracy and confidence that people want until they have taken the time to organize their thoughts about what being OK in their retirement looks like,” says Doug Dahmer, CEO and founder of Retirement Navigator in Burlington, Ontario.

“Retirees significantly underestimate the amount of cash flow that can be uncovered during retirement by employing a strategically sound drawdown strategy. The financial impacts are often measured in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. However, there is no way to optimize a retirement lifestyle plan that cannot be successfully funded and there is no way to develop a strategically sound retirement funding strategy without the granularity of understanding where the peaks and valleys of year-to-year spending occur.

As such, they must organize their thoughts and pre-test their expectations as it relates to their specific version of knowing they will ‘be okay’ once they have retired.”

Transitioning to a new lifestyle

Once you step into the river of retirement, you’ll find yourself immersed in a different current. It’s not the first time you’ve entered a whole new world, but it’s probably been a long time since you’ve had that experience. As mentioned above, the first challenge—or self-doubt—will center on money. But, in the end, it comes down to your ability to live a new life.

“The main problems I see as a wealth advisor often hit several areas,” says Clint McCalla, Senior Wealth Manager at LourdMurray in San Diego. “A big one is not saving enough based on the lifestyle the retiree wants. They simply can’t afford to do the things they want to do. The other problem is boredom or a loss of purpose.

I also see relationship issues emerge between significant others as you are now potentially spending more time together, which is an adjustment. For anyone going through this transition, you need to be realistic about how quickly you adapt to a new lifestyle. It isn’t going to happen overnight. Take time to figure it out, and don’t pressure yourself to meet the expectations you had going into retirement.”

Inflation

The greatest problem is usually the one you least expect. When it hits, it hits big. It means you haven’t prepared for it. As a result, it leads to anxiety. The angst can be justified, or it can simply result from your being surprised. “The biggest challenge people face when they retire is failing to account for inflation,” says Chris Kampitsis, a financial planner at The SKG Team at Barnum Financial Group in Elmsford, New York.

“They assume falsely that the amount they will need to withdraw in year one is the same amount they might need to withdraw in year ten or twenty. People also drastically underestimate their spending. Conversely, they also tend to overestimate how much they can safely withdraw from their nest egg.”

Inflation, even when it trickles in, will have ramifications deep into retirement. It’s one reason financial professionals suggest you keep a significant portion of your retirement savings in long-term investments. This will allow your portfolio to grow even in retirement.

“The main issues for retirees are replacing income in an inflationary environment, preparing for unknown future healthcare costs and long-term care costs, and feeling confident to spend money when they have been good savers,” says Emily C. Rassam, senior financial planner at Archer Investment Management in Charlotte, North Carolina. “I met with a client who is afraid to start distributions even though she has saved well and has plenty to cover current distributions and future expenses.”

Financial Insecurity

All the above problems can lead to the most vexing of worries, that of financial insecurity. This feeling isn’t all bad, as it represents a defensive tactic that can help protect you from the worst-case scenario. “People usually just don’t have enough to retire,” says Bob Chitrathorn, CFO CFO -0.4% and vice president of Wealth Planning at Simplified Wealth Management in Corona, California.

“They simply retire and will try to make do with what they have, without knowing how long the amount of money they have may or may not last! There are many factors that can compound your fears concerning money. Working longer may exasperate this (although it may also offer advantages.) “The main problems people face when they retire are financial insecurity, health issues and social isolation,” says Derek Miser, investment advisor and CEO at Miser Wealth Partners in Knoxville, Tennessee.

“Many people rely on their pension income to survive, and if this income is reduced due to higher retirement age, it can cause financial hardship. Health issues often become more prevalent in older age, and these may only be compounded by working longer. Also, many people struggle with social isolation when they retire, as they can lose touch with their work colleagues and struggle to find a new sense of purpose.”

Boredom

Just because you make it through the money-related obstacles doesn’t mean you won’t have problems in retirement. For example, do you know the answer to this question: What is the meaning of your life? Discovering the answer for you is easier to know than you think. Still, fewer spend the time and effort needed to look into themselves. The lack of purpose becomes more apparent once you retire.

“The main problems people face when they retire depends on the situation,” says Anna Rappaport, member and volunteer of the Society of Actuaries in Chicago. “For example, some people have major financial challenges, and others do not; some get depressed and bored. People need to contribute and have purpose in life. If their main purpose was their job, they need to find a new passion and/or purpose. Also, many people retire not by choice–either due to job problems, health issues or their family needing them as caregivers.”

These non-monetary problems can be more detrimental than issues dealing with the financial side of your life. Fortunately, they can be addressed in the same way. “Retirement can be a challenge for many, and it is a bit of an archaic construct,” says Lawrence Sprung, founder of Mitlin Financial in Hauppauge, New York. “The concept was built when people’s life expectancies were much lower.

There can be a tremendous loss of purpose for those that retire early, putting them in a position not to experience joy and undergo mental health struggles. Just like you financially plan for retirement, you need to plan mentally too.” Don’t underestimate the loss of purpose. During your career, you had a regular schedule. That gave your life purpose. You might even think it gave your life meaning. This all changes in retirement.

“One of the main problems people face when they retire is a lack of purpose and meaning in their lives,” says Dennis Shirshikov, the Head of Growth for Awning.com in New York City and a professor at the City University of New York, where he teaches finance, economics, and accounting. “Many retirees struggle with feelings of boredom, loneliness, and isolation, which can lead to depression and other mental health issues.”

Whether it’s financial problems or mental hurdles, retirement presents a challenge. Are you ready to take on that challenge? And what will you do to address these challenges? There are answers you can consider.

Child IRA Expert and Hamburger Historian, he’s the author of “The Parents Guide To Turning Your Teen Into A Millionaire: And How To Do It Before High School

Source: Five Problems People Have When They Retire

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Why Companies Are Pushing Premium Products With Higher Prices

Laurent Hrybyk

Big companies are prodding their customers toward fancier, and often pricier, versions of everything from Krispy Kreme doughnuts to cans of WD-40. It’s evidence of the corporate world’s new favorite buzzword: “premiumization.”

Businesses are hoping to keep the good times rolling after several years in which they seized on strong spending by consumers and rapid inflation to raise prices and pump up profit margins. Many firms are embracing offerings that cater to higher-income customers — people who are willing and able to pay more for products and services.

One sign of the trend: the notion of premiumization was raised in nearly 60 earnings calls and investor meetings over the past three weeks. It is an indication of a changing economic backdrop. Inflation and consumer spending are expected to moderate this year, which could make it more difficult for firms to sustain large price increases without some justification.

The premiumization trend also reflects a divide in the American economy. The top 40 percent of earners are sitting on more than a trillion dollars in extra savings amassed during the early part of the pandemic. Lower-income households, on the other hand, have been burning through their savings, partly as they contend with the higher costs of the food, rent and other necessities that make up a bigger chunk of their spending.

“The pool of people willing to spend on small to large premium offers remains strong,” said David Mayer, a senior partner in the brand strategy practice of Lippincott, a consultancy.

As products grow more expensive and exclusive, big swaths of the economy are at risk of becoming gentrified, raising the possibility that poorer consumers will be increasingly underserved.

Businesses have long segmented customers, trying to push richer ones into pricier and more profitable purchases: think of the spacious premium seats on an plane versus the cramped economy-class alternatives. But the trend picked up during the pandemic, and the lurch toward luxury is now spanning a wider array of products and services.

Executives at some companies are focusing heavily on the rich. At American Express, which reported record spending by cardholders last quarter, “we’re constantly tightening up the card members that we’re acquiring,” Stephen J. Squeri, the company’s chief executive, told analysts on a recent call, describing how the firm has been steadily limiting its focus to higher-earning applicants. “That premium customer base, while not immune to economic downturns, certainly right now is spending on through.”

Other companies are emphasizing premium offerings as an alternative to discounts. Krispy Kreme spent last year attracting customers using deals — including a “Beat the Pump” discount that matched the price of a dozen glazed doughnuts to the national average price of a gallon of gas. But it is planning to do less discounting this year, an executive said on a call, aiming instead to generate “excitement around our premium specialty doughnuts,” which include fancier, higher-priced offerings around holidays.

Pushing premium products has come up in some unexpected corners of the corporate world. WD-40, the firm that makes the lubricant of the same name, has found that customers will pay more for products with enhancements, like a can with a “smart straw” to spray the lubricant in two different ways — in either a precision stream or more of a mist. “Premiumization creates opportunities for revenue growth, grows margin expansion, and most importantly, it delights our end users,” Steve Brass, the company’s chief executive, said on a call.

The question now is what the shift toward more premium products means for the broader economy. It could be a sign that companies are making last-ditch efforts to justify higher prices and cling to fat profits as the economic outlook darkens.

To fight inflation, the Federal Reserve has been rapidly raising interest rates, which is meant to slow economic growth and cool consumer demand. That could make it harder for businesses to continue charging more, cooling inflation and potentially cutting into profits in the process.

“Most everybody had pricing power last year,” said Scott Chronert, a strategist at Citigroup, explaining that his forecasts suggest “that is going to shift.”And attempts to maintain profit margins by giving products a premium sheen are not guaranteed to pay off.

Six Flags, the theme park operator, recently shifted to a more premium model by raising prices and limiting discounts, which Selim Bassoul, the chief executive, described as “bold changes to our business model in order to elevate the guest experience.” It has had mixed results so far. In the nine months through September, attendance at its parks fell by 25 percent from the year before, spending per guest rose 22 percent and, in the end, profits fell by nearly 10 percent.

Understand Inflation and How It Affects You

In January, the Walt Disney Company acknowledged that it might have pushed too hard on prices at its theme parks, angering loyal customers. It revised its policies on ticketing, hotel parking, ride photos and annual passes.

But the shift toward premium products could signal the start of a more lasting change, as businesses settle into a routine of selling lower volumes for higher prices in a divided economy — a strategy that could leave poorer consumers worse off.

Take the U.S. car market. At the end of 2017, 36 models were priced below $25,000, and the share of cars that cost that much or less accounted for nearly 13 percent of all sales of new cars, according to an analysis by Cox Automotive. At the end of last year, only 10 models had starting prices that low, and their share of sales plunged to less than 4 percent. Subprime buyers are increasingly falling out of the market, in a sign that poorer people, who tend to have lower credit scores, are struggling for a foothold.

Carmakers may be cutting cheap models in part because it is hard to justify the cost of making them in an era of expensive parts and persistent labor shortages, said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox. But the expectation is that they will continue to focus on bigger-ticket models, while resisting pushing overall vehicle production higher to levels that could lead to discounting even as supply bottlenecks ease.

“They’re better off selling fewer and maintaining pricing power,” Mr. Smoke said. That could spur competitors to jump into the market to provide cheaper cars, but such an adjustment is unlikely to happen quickly.

For now, car ownership could increasingly become the purview of the rich. Fewer new cars eventually translates into fewer used cars. That raises prices and, together with higher interest rates, threatens to shut poorer people out of the market.

It’s a window on what a widespread emphasis on premiumization could mean for the economy: Lower production, potentially higher inflation in the short run and permanently higher prices in the long run.

But it is too early to tell whether what is happening now is widespread and persistent enough to have a meaningful economic impact, said Isabella Weber, an economist at the University of Massachusetts Amherst who has been studying profits and prices during the pandemic. “It’s a very confusing moment,” she said.

Jason Karaian

Jason Karaian

Jeanna Smialek

Source: Why Companies Are Pushing Premium Products With Higher Prices – The New York Times

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Digital Payments: The Benefits, How To Use Them In Your Business And What To Look For In A Provider

CEO at Yooz Inc., leading product innovation road maps and strategic partnerships. Read Laurent Charpentier’s full executive profile here.

Source: Digital Payments: The Benefits, How To Use Them In Your Business And What To Look For In A Provider

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This Week In Credit Card News: A Talking Credit Card; A Proposal To Drastically Cut Late Fees

There may be some relief on the way for consumers on credit card late fees..getty

Credit cards are not easy for visually impaired people to use because they can’t always see the terminal to know where to insert their card. But the main challenge for blind people is that they can’t confirm whether the price the retailer keys in is accurate. To alleviate that problem, French tech firm Thales has developed a credit card that talks.

This credit card doesn’t only contain a payment chip but another piece of electronics that enables you to connect it to the user’s cellphone. This connection enables the reception via Bluetooth of all the information that is displayed on the card payment terminal. The smartphone then vocalizes that transaction through a speaker or headphones in French, English or a number of other languages. [Marketplace]

What Fed Rate Increases Mean for Mortgages, Credit Cards and More

As the Federal Reserve has lifted its key interest rate several times over the past year, Americans have seen the effects on both sides of the household ledger: Savers benefit from higher yields, but borrowers pay more.

You May Like To Read: FEXBIT Investment Platform

Credit card rates are closely linked to the Fed’s actions, so consumers with revolving debt can expect to see those rates rise, usually within one or two billing cycles. The average credit card rate was 19.9% as of Jan. 25, according to Bankrate.com, up from around 16% in March last year, when the Fed began its series of rate increases. [The New York Times]

Credit Card Debt Rose Hand in Hand with Inflation Last Year

In the last quarter of 2022, the average credit card debt per borrower increased to $5,804, compared to around $5,100 for the same period in 2021 and 2020. Overall, collective credit card balances reached about $930 billion in the last quarter of 2022, an 18.5% jump and new record high, TransUnion says.

That tracks with previous third-quarter data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which found credit card balances increased to $930 billion, a 15% year-over-year uptick. [Money]

85% of Consumers Feel More Secure in Life with a Healthy Credit Score

Of U.S. consumers, 85% say they feel more secure in the rest of their lives when their credit score is healthy, according to a national survey released by FICO last week. It also found that about one-third of Americans feel financially insecure, and 43% say the unstable economy is a barrier towards achieving financial goals. The survey results suggest that even during periods of economic uncertainty, good credit helps people feel more in control. [The Motley Fool]

Record $3.8 Billion Stolen in Crypto Hacks Last Year

A record $3.8 billion worth of cryptocurrency was stolen from various services last year, with much of those thefts driven by North Korean-linked hackers, according to a new report. The increase in crypto heists, from $3.3 billion in 2021, came as the overall market for cryptocurrencies suffered significant declines.

The value of Bitcoin, for example, fell by more than 60% last year. North Korea was a key driver for the surge in thefts, according to the report. Hackers linked to the country stole an estimated $1.7 billion worth of cryptocurrency through various hacks in 2022, up from $429 million in the prior year. [CNN]

It’s Live! Delta’s New Credit Card Benefit for 15% Off Award Flights

Delta and American Express officially launched TakeOff 15, a splashy benefit for both new and existing Delta SkyMiles American Express credit cardholders that gets you at least a 15% discount on SkyMiles award tickets booked through Delta.

TakeOff 15 is a new benefit for Delta SkyMiles American Express cardholders that provides at least a 15% mileage discount when redeeming SkyMiles for Delta-operated award flights. It’s available on both consumer and business versions of the Delta SkyMiles Gold, Platinum, and Reserve credit cards. [Thrifty Traveler]

Beyoncé Is Going on Tour, and a Citi Card Can Help You Get a Ticket

The demand for Beyoncé’s latest tour is sure to be astronomical for this global icon who hasn’t toured since 2018. If you’re hoping to catch one of Beyoncé’s U.S. concerts, your Citi card could help you score these coveted tickets. All Citi cards that have the Visa or Mastercard logo and Citi debit cards with the Mastercard logo are eligible.

Before registering for the Citi presale of your choice, you’ll first need to add your qualifying Citi card as a payment option in your Ticketmaster account. After adding the card to your Ticketmaster account, you’ll then have to complete the Verified Fan registration to access the presale. [NerdWallet]

American Express Launches Financial Management Tools for Small Businesses

American Express has launched a new service for small businesses that provides a way to manage their finances from a single point, a service which they call American Express Business Blueprint. Built on the Kabbage platform, which American Express acquired in 2020, Business Blueprint features cash flow insights and a way to buy digital financial products, such as a line of credit, from American Express. [Forbes]

Mastercard, Binance to Launch Their Second Prepaid Crypto Card in Latin America

Credit card giant Mastercard has teamed up with the world’s largest crypto exchange to launch another prepaid crypto card in Latin America. On Monday, Binance announced the launch of the Binance Card in Brazil. The new card is issued by Dock, a payment institution regulated by Banco Central do Brasil, Brazil’s central bank.

The new card will allow new and existing Binance users in the country with valid national IDs to make purchases and pay bills with crypto assets. The card is in a beta testing phase and will be widely available in the coming weeks. Brazil is the second country where Binance has launched the product, following Argentina in August. [Coin Telegraph]

Will Digital Wallets Kill Credit Cards?

Digital wallets, also called mobile wallets, are gaining popularity for their convenience and ease of use. Despite their growing popularity, digital wallets are still quite a way from cornering the payment market, in part because merchants are slow to adopt new payments processing technology.

While mobile wallets probably won’t be the default anytime soon, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to think we’ll do away with plastic credit cards in favor of digital versions sometime in the next few decades. [The Motley Fool]

The Capital One Venture X Business Card Will Launch Next Week

Last year, Capital One quietly launched a small-business rewards card available exclusively to clients with a Capital One Relationship Manager. The Capital One Spark Travel Elite card was noticeably similar to the issuer’s premium credit card, the Capital One Venture X Rewards Credit Card, with parallel earning rates, travel benefits, and annual fees. Now the cards are even more aligned.

The Capital One Spark Travel Elite card will rebrand next week as the new Capital One Venture X Business Card. The Venture X Business Card won’t be available to just anyone. As with its previous incarnation, you’ll need to apply for the card through your Capital One Relationship Manager. They’re like a liaison between business owners and the bank who help arrange accounts, loans, and other credit. [Business Insider]

For 18 years, I was the Chief Executive Officer of LowCards, a consumer resource website on credit cards.

Source: This Week In Credit Card News: A Talking Credit Card; A Proposal To Drastically Cut Late Fees

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20 Great Stock Ideas For 2023 From Top-Performing Fund Managers

2022 was a terrible year for stocks. The S&P 500 has lost 20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down nearly 10% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plummeted more than 30%. Blame it on raging inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve, the War in Ukraine or a looming global recession.

Given that the days of just buying the S&P 500 or some other broad index fund to garner double digit returns appear to be in the rearview mirror, experts believe it is now a so-called “stock pickers market.”

With that, Forbes tapped Morningstar to identify top-performing fund managers who have either beat their benchmarks this year or on a longer-term basis over three-year, five-year or ten-year periods. Here are their best stock ideas for the coming year.

*Stock prices and fund returns are as of 12/23/2022

Charles Lemonides

ValueWorks Ltd. Partners Long-Biased: Long-term strategy that finds disparities between a company’s underlying assets and security price.

2022 return: 39.4%, 5-year average annual return: 23.9%

Chord Energy (CHRD)

Market Capitalization: $5.5 billion

12-Month Revenues: $3.2 billion

Lemonides likes Chord Energy, which he calls ideal for a bumpy period in markets as it is a “defensive play with huge cash generation” that is selling at an “exceedingly attractive valuation.” The company owns nearly one million net acres of drilling rights, formed in July after the successful merger of Oasis and Whiting Petroleum. Both had previously spent billions of dollars building resources in the Permian Basin—so during the pandemic, many fund managers like Lemonides bought up the distressed debt in the two companies for cents on the dollar.

While Chord Energy currently has a $5.6 billion market cap, both Oasis and Whiting each had valuations far above that at their last peak five years ago, he points out. “Back then oil prices were roughly $80 per barrel, and today they’re basically around that,” Lemonides says, noting the two recently merged enterprises are “producing far more oil today than they were back then.” He also likes the fact that Chord Energy is “very shareholder friendly,” returning the great bulk of its more than $1 billion in free cash flow during the last year and a half to shareholders in the form of stock buybacks or dividends: “That’s cash money in shareholders’ pockets.”

Air Lease (AL)

Market Capitalization: $4.1 billion

12-Month Revenues: $2.3 billion

Lemonides is also a fan of Air Lease, which purchases commercial aircraft and leases them to airline customers worldwide. “The industry has gone through as tumultuous an experience as one can imagine with the pandemic, but Air Lease has basically been financially healthy through the other side of that,” he says. “While some airlines have struggled, the industry seems to be on the mend in a powerful way globally.”

Though the company has some debt, with travel rebounding and many planes at capacity, Air Lease is poised to benefit from its pricing flexibility and huge fleet of aircraft. “You’re paying for equity at a $4 billion market cap, but they own roughly $30 billion worth of aircraft that are probably continuing to appreciate in value annually,” even during inflationary environments, Lemonides describes.

“Airplanes always went up in value during my experience in the 80’s and 90’s,” he says. At current valuation levels—with shares down 17% in 2022, “it just doesn’t make a lot of sense not to buy.”

James Davolos

Kinetics Small-Cap Opportunities Fund:

Concentrated portfolio of small- to mid-sized growth companies.

2022 return: 34.7%, 5-year average annual return: 21.9%

CACI International (CACI)

Market Capitalization: $7.1 billion

12-Month Revenues: $6.3 billion

A long-time holding which the fund has owned for more than 10 years, Davolos highlights “defense technology” company CACI International, which he thinks covers “all the right niches that are relevant for national security.” Unlike Lockheed Martin or Northrop Grumman, which manufacture missiles and planes, CACI specializes in battlefield communications, encryption and cybersecurity.

“Given the modern form of warfare, these areas have much higher secular growth than capital goods-focused defense companies,” Davolos says. “But the market still treats it like a traditional defense contractor, with its fortunes heavily intertwined with defense budgets and the hawkishness of the current administration.”

Despite a slowing economy with interest rates staying high, most of CACI’s revenue comes from somewhere within the Department of Defense ecosystem, he describes, adding that government contracts are much less sensitive to inflation or an economic slowdown. Even after rising 9% in 2022, shares of the company “remain cheap on an absolute basis”—especially when compared with more traditional defense contractors with heavy capital expenditures.

Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)

Market Capitalization: $1.1 billion

12-Month Revenues: $42 million

Shares of Permian Basin Royalty Trust, which have risen 116% this year, could be poised for further upside in 2023, according to Davolos. The trust itself is a passive royalty on the Waddell Ranch, the lease on which was bought by a private company Blackbeard Operating just over two years ago. The small-cap operator has made some exciting strides improving old wells by injecting fluid or carbon dioxide—and though relatively cheap per well, those costs have obscured the dividend, leading to a retail selloff in the stock.

Once Blackbeard’s capital expenditures taper off, however, “the stock could easily be distributing a dividend of $3 to $4 per share next year,” Davolos predicts. “You’re not just betting on capital expenditures rolling over and higher energy prices—Blakckbeard is also ramping up production in these wells significantly,” which will also pay off, he describes. The fund initiated a position in mid-2020, using the collapse in energy prices brought on by the pandemic as an opportunity to buy up shares on the cheap.

“If you underwrite an assumption of higher oil and gas prices next year, which we think is going to happen, the dividend will rerate materially—especially as these new wells come online,” Davolos adds.

Kimball Brooker

First Eagle Global Fund: Wide-ranging portfolio of mid- to large-sized growth and value companies, with hedges for volatility.

2022 return: -8%, 10-year average annual return: 6.2%

HCA Healthcare (HCA)

Market Capitalization: $67.8 billion

12-Month Revenues : $59.8 billion

Brooker likes HCA Healthcare—the largest hospital company in the United States, with more than 180 sites of care–because it has “developed a market share big enough so they can use scale to create the best facilities around.” A for-profit operator that is one of the nation’s leading providers of healthcare services, shares of HCA are down nearly 7% in 2022.

The fund has owned the stock since early 2018, when shares tanked after an earnings warning related to margin compression. HCA’s top line was hard-hit during the pandemic, both by hospital patients delaying visits or elective surgeries as well as by wage inflation for in-demand nurses, though both of those concerns have been gradually resolving, Brooker describes.

While the stock has struggled as a result, he says that HCA will be able to eventually pass price increases on to consumers, not to mention continue to generate “robust cash flows” as hospital visits continue to tick up. What’s more, unlike most hospitals–which are not-for-profit–the company is able to reinvest significant cash to upgrade facilities and thereby attract better doctors and improve patient outcomes, Brooker adds.

Comcast (CMCSA)

Market Capitalization: $153 billion

12-Month Revenues: $121 billion

A longtime and currently top-10 holding of the fund, Comcast may appear to have a mountain of debt—roughly $90 billion at the end of September. “In reality, the company has used these years of low rates to take advantage of reasonably cheap financing,” with a weighted average maturity in 2037 and weighted average coupon of around 3.5%, Brooker describes.

“These aren’t particularly scary credit metrics.” He still likes Comcast, shares of which have fallen 32% this year, because of its under-the-radar dividend, which has consistently grown over the past decade and now yields just over 3%. He describes the company as a “durable, sensibly run business” with solid free cash flow, mainly focused on broadband cable but also with elements of diversification with content streaming and theme parks.

“Comcast has a high-quality problem—market share is so high that subscriber growth is harder to get, but at the same time pricing can be used as a potential lever, so it really is a double-edged sword.” One potential catalyst to watch for in the next few years: Comcast’s roughly 33% stake in Hulu, which has an upcoming put option allowing the company to sell to Disney. “At a minimum total valuation of around $27 billion for Hulu, that could result in roughly $9 billion for Comcast,” Brooker points out.

Thomas Huber

T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth Fund: Blend of large-cap companies with a focus on dividend growers.

2022 return: -11.2%, 10-year average annual return: 12.6%

Becton Dickinson (BDX BDX )

Market Capitalization: $71.5 billion

12-Month Revenues: $19.4 billion

Huber likes BD, which he calls a “good defensive growth company” that has reasonable earnings visibility. The fund has owned the stock for a number of years, but it has struggled with disappointing margins and an FDA recall on its Alaris infusion pump last year. Still, “the worst is behind it,” says Huber, who points out that the company has “gotten its act together” with good new product flow, a healthy cost management program, some small M&A deals and steadily improving margins.

The relaunch of BD’s Alaris pump is still a wild card and probably won’t happen until at least 2024, but that has helped boost sentiment, he describes. “There is good money to be made in companies as they improve and come out of a troubled period, whether it is self-inflicted or market driven,” Huber says.

What’s more, while BD’s dividend yield of around 1.5% is by no means huge, it is raising it steadily over time, which is “a sign of a healthy, consistently growing business,” he adds. “All of that is important in a world where rates are rising and growth is slowing.”

Philip Morris International (PM)

Market Capitalization: $156 billion

12-Month Revenues: $31.7 billion

A holding of the fund since 2008, Philip Morris International is a “stock where you’re paid to wait” thanks to a 5% dividend yield, according to Huber. He thinks the tobacco company is “nicely set up as we go into next year;” While Philip Morris took a hit from the strong U.S. dollar earlier in 2022, the currency has since weakened, which could be a big headwind abating, Huber says.

He is a big fan of the main product, the iQOS, a device, which uses heat rather than burn technology to consume tobacco. In addition to being a healthier alternative to regular cigarettes, the reduced risk product (RRP) category has higher margins than the core traditional tobacco business. “Philip Morris has invested heavily—roughly $9 billion in this category—and is now well ahead of the competition,” Huber says, adding that the company boasts “an enormous first-mover advantage.”

It recently acquired Swedish Match, a smaller, multinational tobacco company that crucially gives Philip Morris a distribution line for iQOS in the United States. While former parent Altria doesn’t want to cannibalize its own tobacco business domestically, Philip Morris paid several billion to break the existing agreement between the two companies, now paving the way for a launch in U.S. markets that could be as soon as 2023 or 2024, Huber describes. “That obviously has positive implications for the company and the stock.”

Christopher Marangi

The Gabelli Value 25 Fund: Portfolio of companies selling below private market value, with 25 core equity positions.

2022 return: -17.3%, 10-year average annual return: 5.3%

Liberty Media Series C Liberty Braves Common Stock (BATRK)

Market Capitalization: $1.7 billion

12-Month Revenues: $637 million

Marangi highlights this tracker stock, up 12% this year, which owns the Atlanta Braves baseball team as well as the real estate development rights around its ballpark. “By buying the stock at market today, you’re buying equity in the Braves at a roughly $1.5 billion valuation,” he describes, adding, “the New York Mets sold for $2.4 billion during Covid—and the Braves generate much more revenue.”

Though there is roughly $400 million in debt on the franchise, Marangi thinks that if sold, the Braves could garner a valuation nearing $3 billion. Sports franchises tend to trade as a multiple of revenue, but there has been “no slowdown in the public’s appetite for live entertainment post-pandemic,” he points out.

One catalyst to watch: Parent company Liberty Media, which also owns Formula One, announced in November that it would spin off the Braves into a separate asset. “Once that happens, it’s likely the team could get sold to a private buyer,” Marangi theorizes. “Sports franchises in general have been excellent stores of value, whether in an inflationary or deflationary environment.”

Dish Network (DISH)

Market Capitalization: $7.3 billion

12-Month Revenues: $17.1 billion

Despite a nearly 58% decline in Dish Network shares in 2022, Marangi has high hopes for the satellite TV and wireless services provider next year, having owned the stock for decades. “Communication services has been the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 for a lot of reasons—both secular and cyclical,” he describes. “Still, there is a tremendous amount of asset value in the stock today.”

He calls the company’s traditional satellite video business a “melting ice cube,” as it has taken a hit from cord-cutting, though it still generates large amounts of free cash flow. Marangi is particularly excited about the company’s wireless-network business: Dish has been spending tens of billions to acquire spectrum licenses across the country as it builds out a 5G network.

“The market is only pricing in a fraction of the value of those licenses,” he argues, with large upside potential for earnings to recover as the company eventually monetizes its investment. “This brand-new network won’t be held back by 4G subscribers who have to transition to 5G,” Marangi says, adding, “Dish can also be aggressive with pricing” as it competes with incumbent providers. Another area to watch for is a potential merger with DirecTV, which could “extend the life and cash flow” of both companies’ traditional video business, he predicts.

Eric Schoenstein

Jensen Quality Growth Fund: Portfolio of 30 large-cap growth companies.

2022 return: -17.4%, 10-year average annual return: 13.1%

TJX (TJX)

Market Capitalization: $90 billion

12-Month Revenues: $49.3 billion

A 10-year holding, off-price department store corporation TJX operates brands like T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods, with nearly 4,700 stores across nine countries and three continents. Schoenstein sees potential for the stock next year, calling it “relatively resilient, with defensive characteristics and a strong correlation to consumer spending” that can help its business withstand a slowing economy in 2023.

“As people have less money to spend, consumers will be more thoughtful about how they spend—and TJX plays a valuable role from that perspective,” he describes. A big selling point of TJX is its great deals, and thanks to prices that are low relative to peers, that helps drive customer loyalty, according to Schoenstein.

Amid an environment where consumers are facing higher rents, mortgages and home-ownership costs, TJX stands to benefit from the subsequent “trade-down effect” and “bargain theory” as consumers cut back spending. The stock has outperformed the market in 2022—not to mention many other retailers–rising nearly 3%.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Market Capitalization: $491.3 billion

12-Month Revenues: $313.1 billion

Another of Schoenstein’s top picks is Minnesota-based UnitedHealth Group, the largest managed-healthcare and insurance company in the country, serving roughly 149 million people. In a slowing economic environment, not only is UnitedHealth a defensive play—with shares rising roughly 3.5% this year, but also “a growth company at the same time,” he describes, calling it “a long-term opportunity, albeit one that has generated some nice returns for us in an otherwise challenging year.”

Now a top five holding in the fund, Schoenstein admires the company’s resilient business model and ability to generate substantial cash flow—with stable earnings growth to limit volatility in the stock, he argues. “That is something that will be much more relevant in 2023, compared to the past where momentum was the play of the day.” UnitedHealth has managed through bumpy periods before, he points out, not to mention the company has grown, giving it the ability to scale up or down depending on the economic backdrop.

While the stock is susceptible to news of potential government regulation in the healthcare sector, “that particular threat seems to have died down somewhat,” with further upside ahead as more people get access to insurance and Medicaid programs around the country, according to Schoenstein.

Kenneth Kuhrt

Ariel Fund: Flagship value fund, primarily focused on small- to mid-sized companies.

2022 return: -19.9%, 10-year average annual return: 10.1%

Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL)

Market Capitalization: $12.5 billion

12-Month Revenues: $7.2 billion

The Ariel Fund has owned shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises, the number two player in the cruise line industry, for roughly 15 years. Like the other major cruise operators, Royal Caribbean struggled as pandemic lockdowns effectively crippled the industry with fleets under extended no-sail orders.

Still, the company is “frequently misunderstood in terms of the stability of the business model,” argues Kuhrt, adding, “not many companies can be shut down for a year and a half then survive and prosper on the other side of that.” Markets continue to take a very short-term outlook on the cruise industry in general, with investors growing fearful of headlines relating to everything from energy prices to geopolitics, he describes.

“We’re surprised the market isn’t giving Royal Caribbean more credit for their recent earnings guidance and business ramp up.” Despite a 37% drop in the stock this year, Kuhrt points to “significant upside” ahead, especially as management aims for double-digit earnings power by 2025. He also emphasizes that on a comparable basis, cruise pricing is now above pre-pandemic levels, while occupancy rates have also rebounded significantly. “A big part of the story is customer retention,” he says. “The cruise line industry is connected to and understands its customer base better than we’ve ever seen before.”

Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)

Market Capitalization: $12.6 billion

12-Month Revenues: $5.7 billion

This market leader in enterprise asset intelligence, which focuses on bar-code scanning and inventory tracking technology, trades at a “significant discount to its underlying intrinsic value,” Kuhrt says. Zebra Technologies’ large customers include Amazon, Target and many others spanning a range of sectors including retail, manufacturing, healthcare and transportation. While the stock was at $600 per share just one year ago, it has suffered a big dislocation–now down to $250and has undergone multiple compression because of its ties to the technology sector.

Still, investors are underestimating the fundamental earnings power of the business, Kuhrt describes: “Decades ago, the business model revolved around just scanning a barcode; Now, the complexity of logistics and tracking assets is ever increasing.” He is particularly optimistic about some of Zebra’s newer technologies, such as radio-frequency identification (RFID), which uses electromagnetic fields to track and identify different objects in transit. In the nearly 10 years that the fund has owned Zebra’s stock, the company has “continued to adapt and grow” and will continue to do so, despite Wall Street’s concerns about an economic slowdown, Kuhrt argues.

Amy Zhang

Alger Mid-Cap Focus Fund: Focused portfolio of around 50 mid-size companies.

2022 return: -36%, Average annual return since inception (2019): 9.1%

Waste Connections (WCN)

Market Capitalization: $34.3 billion

12-Month Revenues: $7 billion

Zhang likes this Woodlands, Texas-based waste collection, disposal and recycling company, which she calls a “defensive business that would be resilient in a slowing economic environment.” Waste Connections, shares of which are down just 1% in 2022, serves millions of customers across the United States and Canada—with a focus on exclusive and secondary markets that helps guarantee “durable revenue growth.”

Zhang notes that in a business less focused on volume growth and more concerned with pricing, Waste Connections has a strong track record of industry-leading margins and cash flow. Waste management is a stable, defensive business that typically does well during recessions, Zhang points out. Thanks to the company’s pricing power and “superior market selection strategy,” she thinks Waste Connections will be “even more resilient than its peers” going into next year.

Zhang expects margins to improve in 2023 as inflation headwinds dissipate, while also emphasizing that the company could “continue to be an M&A flywheel” if it keeps making smart acquisitions to shore up market share.

Insulet (PODD)

Market Capitalization: $20.7 billion

12-Month Revenues: $1.2 billion

Zhang is also excited about “long-term compounder” Insulet, a medical device company focused on treating diabetes patients through its body-worn Omnipod insulin pump. One of the fund’s top 10 positions, shares have risen nearly 10% this year, outperforming peers in the medtech sector. Beyond the classic Omnipod and Omnipod Dash DASH insulin management systems, Insulet’s sales have gotten a massive boost this year thanks to the company’s newest device, the Omnipod 5 automated delivery system, which received FDA clearance in early 2022 with a full U.S. launch in late summer.

Zhang calls it a “revolutionary new product,” as it is the first tubeless, automated insulin delivery system on the market. “With many diabetes patients still using tube-based pumps or administering injections, Omnipod has a clear advantage to both alternatives,” she says, adding, “it’s been gaining significant market share and has huge potential market penetration.” Insulet’s “high revenue visibility and predictability,” especially with further adoption of the Omnipod 5 next year, makes this a “recession-resilient stock” that is “particularly appealing in an economic slowdown.”

Nancy Zevenbergen

Zevenbergen Growth Fund: Mostly large-cap consumer and tech companies.

2022 return: -52%, 5-year average annual return: 7%

DoubleVerify (DV)

Market Capitalization: $3.6 billion

12-Month Revenues: $424 million

Zevenbergen likes DoubleVerify, a small-cap software company focused on providing verification and safety for digital brand advertising. DoubleVerify’s technology helps brands and publishers with viewability, by detecting fraud and by protecting brand safety. Zevenbergen’s fund has owned the stock since its IPO in April 2021, but despite being profitable with top-line growth, shares have declined over 30% this year and are now trading below their initial share offering price of $27.

DoubleVerify has seen a major market correction this year, but within that there is a major opportunity,” says Zevenbergen. Though overall ad spending could go down during an economic slowdown, markets are also “incredibly concerned about brand safety with advertising,” she adds. “This kind of ad spend should preclude the fear of a recession.” Zevernbergen also sees further opportunities as new entrants beyond social media platforms, such as Netflix, enter digital advertising. “Risk of fraud or poor content placement makes DoubleVerify’s insurance very important… advertisers are going to want to have brand safety.”

Bill.com Holding (BILL)

Market Capitalization: $11 billion

12-Month Revenues: $753.5 million

Another of Zevenbergen’s stock picks for 2023 is $11 billion (market cap) cloud-based software fintech Bill.com, which assists small businesses on accounts payable and receivable. Bill.com helps smooth out back-office payments and could benefit as they move money in a rising-rate environment.

After a 54% drop in share price this year due to macroeconomic headwinds, the founder-led company could present an “incredible opportunity” at an attractive valuation thanks to its high-growth and profitability, Zevenbergen describes, adding, “all the negatives have been priced into the stock.” The company is well-positioned, compared with its peers:

“Being able to digitize or substitute software for labor—a tight resource these days—will be a spend that you want to make,” she says. “Competition from fintech startups is also likely to erode slightly because money isn’t free anymore.” While Bill.com’s payment volume has fallen slightly due to a more challenging economic environment, that has been offset by pricing power and new-customer momentum.

Kirsty Gibson

Baillie Gifford U.S. Equity Growth Fund: Concentrated portfolio of growth companies.

2022 return: -53.5%, 5-year average annual return: 7.2%

Duolingo (DUOL)

Market Capitalization: $2.9 billion

12-Month Revenues: $338.7 million

One of the fund’s more recent additions—from the company’s July 2021 IPO—is education tech company Duolingo, known for its app that teaches languages. Shares of the company have fallen roughly 30% this year, and while Duolingo has fallen victim to the collective selloff in growth stocks, “not all growth companies are alike,” Gibson describes. The edtech company has shown promising trends—reporting five consecutive quarters of accelerating user growth, with revenue in the latest quarter rising roughly 50% year over year..

The app, which boasts roughly 15 million daily users, offers entirely free language courses in the form of missions that are unlocked in sequence–with different lessons that are dynamic and adaptively constructed to each individual learner. “One of the hardest parts of learning a new language is staying motivated to keep studying–particularly if you’re not living in that country,” she adds. “Duolingo has taken a gamification approach to overcome this.”

Since the app is free to use, the company has been able to grow organically with relatively low marketing outlays, allowing more cash for product development. Gibson predicts that it will be difficult for potential competitors to come in and disrupt Duolingo’s “great product,” not to mention that the company has room for growth in the form of new products and paid subscriptions that allow users to bypass ads.

Shopify (SHOP)

Market Capitalization: $43.6 billion

12-Month Revenues: $5.2 billion

The fifth-largest holding in Baillie Gifford’s U.S. Equity Growth fund is Canadian e-commerce giant Shopify, shares of which have tanked more than 70% in 2022. “The company is looking to be the central nervous system that powers millions of businesses around the world,” Gibson describes. While Shopify’s stock was “very much a pandemic darling,” it has since seen a significant price decline as companies that are taking losses for future growth have been pulled down by market sentiment, she adds, describing the business as “discretionarily unprofitable” in that it is choosing to invest in new areas for the long run at the expense of short-term margins.

Gibson also likes what she describes as exciting changes such as the company moving into enterprise markets and launching Shopify Audiences, a premium tool that helps businesses find new customers through focused digital advertising on different platforms like Facebook or Google. “We believe we will continue to see Shopify’s ability to adapt and be resilient in this current environment,” she summarizes.

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Send me a secure tip.

I am a staff writer at Forbes covering wealth management, money and markets. Previously, I worked on the breaking news and wealth teams at Forbes, covering the stock market..

Source: 20 Great Stock Ideas For 2023 From Top-Performing Fund Managers

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Linkomatic  https://jvz2.com/c/202927/380937/
LiteTrading   https://www.litefinance.com/?uid=929237543
Live Your Truth  https://jvz6.com/c/202927/379020
Living An Intentional Life    https://jvzoo.com/c/202927/382455
Living an International Life    https://jvz8.com/c/202927/382455/
Local Leader   https://jvz4.com/c/202927/383751/
Local Sites   https://jvz4.com/c/202927/380543/
LocalAgencyBox  https://jvz2.com/c/202927/359468
LocalCentric   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/379339/
LocalioAI    https://jvz6.com/c/202927/378310/
MarketAll      https://jvz2.com/c/202927/386971/
Marketingblocks     https://jvz6.com/c/202927/374934
MarketPresso   https://jvz3.com/c/202927/343043/
Massfluence  https://jvz4.com/c/202927/386885/
Mat1 Simple Funnel   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/380197/
Maxslides  https://jvz8.com/c/202927/376842
Mech Forex Robot   https://jvz6.com/c/202927/383447/
MediaCloudPro   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/343635
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Motion Kingdom Studio  https://jvz4.com/c/202927/383177/
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My Passive Income   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/384099/
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Next Drive  https://jvz4.com/c/202927/371095/
NichBox  https://jvz2.com/c/202927/370705/
Organic Life Guide  https://jvz8.com/c/202927/366872/
Pcommerce   https://jvz6.com/c/202927/372265/
Phemex  https://phemex.com/register-vt1?referralCode=D8HUS2
Photokit  https://jvz4.com/c/202927/373207/
PicsAds   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/385468/
PigMoneyMethod   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/377665/
Pipstock    http://pipstockexchange.com/register?ref=204
Pitchdeck   https://jvz3.com/c/202927/347847/
Pixal  https://jvz2.com/c/202927/378775/
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Podcast Advantage   https://jvz8.com/c/202927/379995/
Podcast Masterclass  https://jvz3.com/c/202927/379998/
PodKastr    https://jvz1.com/c/202927/369500/
PopLinks    https://jvz2.com/c/202927/368095/
Postradamus     https://jvz6.com/c/202927/108695
Power Reviews    https://jvz8.com/c/202927/384625/
PowerHabits  https://jvz6.com/c/202927/390625/
Powrsuite   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/390564/
PR Rage  https://jvz4.com/c/202927/343405
Prime Stocks   https://jvz8.com/c/202927/369164
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Seniors Income    https://jvz2.com/c/202927/383888/
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ShopABot   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/291955
ShopFunnels   https://jvz3.com/c/202927/384069/
SocialAgency360   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/385357/
SocialMediaMarketing   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/243553/
SociCake  https://jvz2.com/c/202927/321987
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SociJam  https://jvz2.com/c/202927/309649
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Stock Mages   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/388669/
Stoodaio   https://jvz6.com/c/202927/388794/
Storymate    https://jvz3.com/c/202927/320972
StoryReel   https://jvz3.com/c/202927/387813/
StreamPilot   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/385431/
Studioninja   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/374965
Sunday Freebie  https://jvz1.com/c/202927/267113/
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Tonai Voice Content   https://jvz8.com/c/202927/383119/
Toon Video Maker    https://jvz2.com/c/202927/357201
TrafficForU   https://jvz3.com/c/202927/381950/
Trendio  https://jvz3.com/c/202927/381003/
TubePal   https://jvz6.com/c/202927/379863/
Tubeserp   https://jvz3.com/c/202927/370472
TubeTargeter  https://jvz6.com/c/202927/377211
TuneMingo    https://jvz3.com/c/202927/386556/
TV Boss Fire  https://jvz6.com/c/202927/379480/
Ultrafunnels A.I   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/381129/
VIADZ Ad Template  https://jvz4.com/c/202927/379307/
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Viddeyo    https://jvz6.com/c/202927/382326/
ViddleInteract   https://jvz8.com/c/202927/388716/
Videevolve   https://jvz4.com/c/202927/381011/
Vidently   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/387798/
Video Campaignor      https://jvz4.com/c/202927/387058/
Video Games   https://jvz3.com/c/202927/184902/
VideoEnginePro     https://jvz2.com/c/202927/372916
VideoGameSuite    https://jvz3.com/c/202927/366537/
VideoRobot Enterprise   https://jvz8.com/c/202927/291061
VidKreate   https://jvz6.com/c/202927/386029/
VidMingo   https://jvz6.com/c/202927/378359/
VidRaffle   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/386840/
VidSnatcher    https://jvz3.com/c/202927/342585
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Viral Quotes      https://jvz2.com/c/202927/386984/
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Vocalic  https://jvz2.com/c/202927/383848/
VoiceBuddy    https://jvz1.com/c/202927/342854
Voiclet   https://jvz4.com/c/202927/388755/
VR Studio  https://jvz8.com/c/202927/388296/
WebCop  https://jvz4.com/c/202927/378683/
Webinarkit   https://jvz3.com/c/202927/383937/
Webprimo   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/379455/
WordPress Mastery   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/386249/
WowBackgraounds   https://jvz2.com/c/202927/381556/
WP GDPR    https://jvz8.com/c/202927/299907
WP Simulator    https://jvz3.com/c/202927/46987/
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writing job   https://jvz8.com/c/202927/213027
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Xinemax  https://jvz1.com/c/202927/381749/
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YTSuite   https://jvzoo.com/c/202927/381179
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