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German Industry Braces For Tougher 2022 Due To War, Lockdowns

German industry is bracing for a tougher 2022 as lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine compound ongoing supply chain problems, leading two associations to downgrade their forecasts for the year.

The VDMA engineering association cut its machinery production growth outlook for a second time on Monday. It now expects production of industrial machinery carrying the “Made in Germany” label to grow 1% this year, having already slashed its forecast to 4% from 7% two months ago.

Last year, production grew by 6.4%. The BDI industry association said it now expects exports to grow by only 2.5% this year, after predicting a rise of 4% in January. read more

The lowered forecasts come despite many companies having strong backlogs of orders, as they are struggling to fill them: A survey by the Ifo institute said 77.2% of companies complained about bottlenecks and problems procuring intermediate products and raw materials.

One in two companies affected by material shortages said the China lockdowns made the situation even worse than before, the IFO survey published on Monday showed. VDMA President Karl Haeusgen said in a statement that before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 80% of companies described their business prospects in Russia as good or satisfactory. Now, 75% expect it to deteriorate in the next six months or want to abandon it altogether.

“This shows the extent to which the war has changed everything,” Haeusgen said. BDI predicts production will grow by nearly 2% – less than expected before the war began – with the caveat that this forecast depends on supply chain problems easing and Russian gas continuing to flow in.

Exports may also be a concern. Last year, machinery made up a substantial part of the 26.6 billion euros ($28.5 billion) in goods that Germany exported to Russia.

Source: German industry braces for tougher 2022 due to war, lockdowns | Reuters

Critics by Carlos Caceres, Mai Chi Dao, and Aiko Mineshima
IMF European Department

Germany’s economy contracted by just under 5 percent in 2020, outperforming most European peers. New waves of infections and associated lockdowns during late-2020 to early 2021 hampered the rebound from the first wave. But forward-looking indicators suggest further growth in exports and a brightening outlook for the services sector, in line with re-opening plans and anticipated pent-up demand.

For the year as a whole, growth of about 3.6 percent is expected. The recovery pae

th, however, is beset with risks, particularly regarding the progress of the pandemic and supply shortages in key industries. Retaining supportive fiscal policy until there is clear evidence of a sustained recovery while also using the fiscal space to lift potential growth over the medium term will be crucial.

The government has extended various COVID-19 measures from 2020, such as grants to firms and an expansion of the short-time work subsidy, while also introducing several new measures to support households and businesses. Maintaining adequate support while the economy is still weak is important to minimize scarring effects. As the recovery firms up, more targeted policies and a focus on facilitating resource re-allocation becomes important.

Over the medium term, it is important that Germany’s fiscal space is used to boost growth potential by investing in physical and human capital, accelerating digitalization, incentivizing innovation, bolstering labor supply, and increasing disposable income for low-income households. Making progress towards these goals would also help with external rebalancing.

A green transition is key to Germany’s recovery program, yet there are opportunities to improve the cost-effectiveness of its climate mitigation measures. Following a constitutional court ruling in May, Germany tightened its greenhouse gas emissions targets aiming for a 65 percent reduction by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2045. Germany could bolster its mitigation program with a better-specified schedule of carbon prices over a longer time horizon, complemented with sector-specific feebates (revenue-neutral tax/subsidy schemes).

Continued government support for green infrastructure and technologies is also essential for the transition and to spur the economic recovery. To mitigate the potential adverse impact of higher carbon prices on households, further relief targeted at lower-income earners can be considered.

Germany’s expanded short-time work subsidy or Kurzarbeit remains important until the recovery takes hold, while groups not covered by Kurzarbeit need to protected by different means. The unprecedented take-up of Kurzarbeit helped keep unemployment in check and supported aggregate demand. However, as the recovery takes hold, normalizing Kurzarbeit parameters becomes essential so as not to inhibit labor reallocation toward growing firms and industries. Job search assistance and appropriate training programs can facilitate workers’ transition into post-pandemic jobs.

For groups not covered by Kurzarbeit, maintaining expanded access to the current basic income program would be beneficial until the job market recovers sustainably. To arrest widening inequality, the government could consider reducing social security contributions on lower incomes, which would also spur hiring and labor supply.

Safeguarding financial stability during the nascent recovery is essential. So far bankruptcies and financial losses have been limited, while bank capital has actually increased since the onset of the pandemic. But bankruptcies may rise as support measures are phased out, warranting continued targeted liquidity and solvency support for viable firms.

Meanwhile, specifying an appropriately gradual timetable for banks to rebuild capital buffers is important to mitigate the risk of curtailed lending when it is most needed. Banks also need to improve their cost structures to address chronic low profitability. Progress has been made in narrowing data gaps that have hampered the full assessment of macro-financial risks. But the buildup of financial vulnerabilities in real estate markets calls for close monitoring and for expanding the macroprudential toolkit to include income-based instruments.

Further reading:

UK inflation expectations stick at high levels – Citi/YouGov, article with imageWorld

WorldNATO’s support for Ukraine is unbreakable, Spain’s PM Sanchez says,

European MarketsRussian rouble rallies past 62 vs dollar, reversing last week’s heavy losses

European MarketsWorld stocks turn positive in May on Fed bets

European MarketsDollar resumes slide as stock markets tentatively pick up

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Meet Skimpflation: A Reason Inflation Is Worse Than The Government Says It Is Planet Money

All is not so happy at the happiest place on Earth. The guests of the Magic Kingdom are restless. Despite reopening more than six months ago, Disney World and Disneyland have yet to restart their tram services to and from parking lots, forcing visitors to walk nearly a mile to enter and exit the parks. Some Disney fans are acting as though the company is a kind of greedy Cruella de Vil, willing to slaughter cute puppies and turn them into coats for a profit.

“Customer service is gone at Disney,” says commenter James E. on Facebook. “It’s all about maximizing profit now.””They haven’t brought back the trams because it’s saving Disney money!” writes Daniel P. “Trams need to be driven by multiple drivers.”

It’s all about “GREED,” says Harry Z. “It has nothing to do with COVID at this point.” A couple of weeks ago, amid mounting online fury over Disney’s transportation issues, the company announced it was finally reopening its famous monorail system. But, the company said, its trams to and from parking lots will remain idle for the foreseeable future.

What’s happening in the Magic Kingdom is happening across the entire economy. Domino’s is taking longer to deliver pizzas. Airlines are putting customers who call them on hold for hours. Restaurants, bars and hotels are understaffed and stretched thin. The quality of service seems to be deteriorating everywhere.

We’ve all heard about rising inflation. The price of stuff is going up. And if you read this newsletter, you’ve heard of shrinkflation. That’s when the price of stuff stays the same, but the amount you get goes down. The economywide decline in service quality that we’re now seeing is something different, and it doesn’t have a good name. It’s a situation where we’re paying the same or more for services, but they kinda suck compared with what they used to be.

We propose a new word to describe this stealth-ninja kind of inflation: skimpflation. It’s when, instead of simply raising prices, companies skimp on the goods and services they provide.

Skimping has a derogatory connotation, and, we should note, not all companies are Cruella de Vil or Scrooge McDuck. Many businesses, especially small businesses, are struggling to cope with surging costs and pandemic-related expenses. They’re having a hard time finding workers at the wages they used to pay. And some businesses may be unable to afford paying what it takes to recruit workers in the current environment. Nonetheless, whether it’s because they can’t afford to, they don’t want to or they’re being greedy, instead of enticing workers with higher wages, many businesses are cutting back on the quality of their services in order to stay profitable. And the Oxford dictionary definition of the word “skimp” seems to fit what they’re doing: “Expend or use less time, money, or material on something than is necessary in an attempt to economize.”

While it may lurk in the shadows, make no mistake: Skimpflation is a form of inflation. As with normal inflation, it means we’re getting less for our money. And some argue the government is failing to properly account for this kind of inflation when crunching official statistics.

The inflation awakening of Alan Cole

Alan Cole first woke up to what we’re calling skimpflation this summer. He was on a road trip, driving from his home in Washington, D.C., to Vermont to see his family. It was during those glorious weeks when most of us were vaccinated and life seemed to be rocketing back to normal. You know, before the delta variant put that to a screeching halt.

“And I was on the New Jersey Turnpike, and I went through rest stops. And I noticed little things that were off,” Cole says. Stores had spotty hours. Napkin, utensil and condiment dispensers were empty. Fast-food restaurants weren’t fast. He could see Help Wanted signs everywhere. “The rest stops were struggling to keep up the same level of service that they had before.”

On his way back from Vermont, he stayed at a hotel in Poughkeepsie, N.Y. The morning after his stay, he woke up to a “sad and pitiful” breakfast that consisted of a plastic-wrapped, mass-produced pastry, prepackaged Raisin Bran and lukewarm milk. The hotel was now skimping on its hot-breakfast buffet as well as maid service for guests who stayed for more than one night. This, Cole realized, was happening across the entire economy — and he began to think the government wasn’t fully capturing the decline of quality in official statistics.

Cole was formerly a senior economist at the Joint Economic Committee of the U.S. Congress, where he used to advise Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, and write official economic reports. These days he’s a writer at Full Stack Economics. For most of his economics career, he says, he had believed that official government statistics actually made inflation seem worse than it really was. He had thought they didn’t fully capture improvements in the quality of products and services when quantifying changes in prices.

For example, a couple of decades ago, you had to fork over a lot of money to buy physical albums if you were a music lover. Now you can use Spotify and listen to basically every album ever recorded in history for free or a low monthly fee. Some products, like electric skateboards, didn’t even exist in the recent past. The government tries to capture such innovations and product improvements with a process called “hedonic quality adjustment.”

But Cole believed that the government, while accounting for quality improvements, still failed to capture how much better products and services were getting. He didn’t believe it was some sort of Illuminati conspiracy of Satan-worshipping pedophiles juicing the statistics. It’s just super-hard to systematically account for changes in quality when measuring changes in prices. How do you gauge the priceless improvements to our lives brought about by things like Google’s search algorithm, the Onewheel electric skateboard or baguette slippers?

Mismeasuring inflation has important implications. For example, it’s common to hear people argue that the real, or inflation-adjusted, wage of the typical American worker has stagnated in recent decades. But if the government has been overstating inflation in its statistics, this means American workers’ paychecks actually go further and living standards have gotten better than official statistics say.

“I thought that the world was getting better, faster than our official statistics would suggest because product quality was getting better,” Cole says. “That’s what I was saying for a decade — and I would have been saying it longer, but I’m not that old.”

But while he was eating that pitiful hotel breakfast, it hit him that the inverse was now happening. Instead of failing to capture improvements in the quality of products and services in economic statistics, the government was now failing to fully factor in deterioration in quality. In other words, the official statistics aren’t showing how bad inflation actually is. Hotel prices, for example, may be the same or higher than before, yet hotels are skimping on the services they used to provide. “We’re getting less for our money,” Cole says. “And that’s fundamentally what inflation is all about.”

You could chalk this all up to the pandemic and a slow adjustment to normal. And, Cole says, we should cut leaders and businesses some slack as they try to fix a difficult situation. That said, we’re now approaching two years of this pandemic, and, he says, it’s time to try to account for quality degradation — aka skimpflation — in the service sector.

Cole points to official government statistics that now say the economy — adjusted for standard inflation — is bigger and more productive than it was in 2019. “That kind of suggests that the goods and services we’re consuming now are better than they were before the pandemic,” Cole says. “And I don’t think that’s true.”

For their part, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department say the weird, inflationary economy we’re seeing right now is transitory. And they’re probably right. We’re just hoping that the visitors to Disneyland and everyone else irked by skimpflation get their fairy tale ending soon.

By: Greg Rosalsky

Source: Meet skimpflation: A reason inflation is worse than the government says it is : Planet Money : NPR

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Experts Slam Apple’s Child Protection Phone-Scanning Technology

A group of leading cybersecurity experts has spoken out against Apple’s plan to detect child sexual abuse images on iPhones, claiming it amounts to mass surveillance and should be banned.

Earlier this year, Apple announced plans to introduce client side scanning, searching individual devices’ iCloud photo libraries for child sexual abuse material (CSAM). Images would be scanned using a technology called NeuralHash and then compared with known CSAM material, before being reported to the authorities.

The plans were delayed last month, with Apple stating that feedback from customers, advocacy groups, researchers and others was prompting it to look for improvements.

Now, though, there’s more feedback, and from sources that it’s hard to downplay. In a paper titled Bugs in our Pockets: The Risks of Client-Side Scanning, security and cryptograhy experts Hal Abelson, Ross Anderson, Steven M. Bellovin, Josh Benaloh, Matt Blaze, Jon Callas, Whitfield Diffie, Susan Landau, Peter G. Neumann, Ronald L. Rivest, Jeffrey I. Schiller, Bruce Schneier, Vanessa Teague, and Carmela Troncoso claim the technology goes much too far.

“In this report, we argue that CSS neither guarantees efficacious crime prevention nor prevents surveillance,” they write.

“Indeed, the effect is the opposite. CSS by its nature creates serious security and privacy risks for all society while the assistance it can provide for law enforcement is at best problematic. There are multiple ways in which client-side scanning can fail, can be evaded, and can be abused.”

The main fear is the risk of abuse by repressive governments. While Apple says that only CSAM and terrorist material would be flagged, the researchers aren’t so sure.

“If device vendors are compelled to install remote surveillance, the demands will start to roll in. Who could possibly be so cold-hearted as to argue against the system being extended to search for missing children?” writes Ross Anderson, professor of security engineering at the University of Cambridge.

“Then President Xi will want to know who has photos of the Dalai Lama, or of men standing in front of tanks; and copyright lawyers will get court orders blocking whatever they claim infringes their clients’ rights.”

With the EU believed to be considering device scanning as a part of a new law on child protection, the researchers say that it should be a national-security priority to ‘resist attempts to spy on and influence law-abiding citizens’.

And, they point out, the Data Retention Directive has already been struck down on the grounds that such bulk surveillance, without warrant or suspicion, was an unacceptable infringement of privacy, even in the fight against terrorism. Client-side scanning is equally problematic, the researchers say.

“Instead of having targeted capabilities such as to wiretap communications with a warrant and to perform forensics on seized devices, the agencies’ direction of travel is the bulk scanning of everyone’s private data, all the time, without warrant or suspicion,” they write.

“That crosses a red line. Is it prudent to deploy extremely powerful surveillance technology that could easily be extended to undermine basic freedoms?”

By: Emma Woollacott

I’ve been writing about technology for most of my adult life, focusing mainly on legal and regulatory issues. I write for a wide range of publications: credits include the Times, Daily Telegraph and Financial Times newspapers, as well as BBC radio and numerous technology titles. Here, I’ll be covering the ways content is controlled on the internet, from censorship to online piracy and copyright. You can follow my posts by clicking the ‘ Follow’ button under my name.

Source: Experts Slam Apple’s Child Protection Phone-Scanning Technology

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Economy Week Ahead: Inflation, Jobless Claims, Retail Sales

The outlook for the global economy darkened as a stream of data from Europe and Asia suggested growth faltered in the third quarter, hobbled by world-wide supply-chain snarls, sharply accelerating inflation and the impact of the highly contagious Delta variant.

U.S. inflation accelerated last month and remained at its highest rate in over a decade, with price increases from pandemic-related labor and materials shortages rippling through the economy from a year earlier.

The Labor Department said last month’s consumer-price index, which measures what consumers pay for goods and services, rose by 5.4%

The gap between yields on shorter- and longer-term Treasury’s narrowed Wednesday after data showed inflation accelerated slightly in September, fueled by investors’ bets that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected. Measures of inflation in China and the U.S. highlight this week’s economic data.

China’s exports, long a growth engine for the country’s economy, are expected to increase 21% from a year earlier in September, according to economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. That is down from a 25.6% gain in August. Meanwhile, inbound shipments are forecast to rise 19.1% from a year earlier, retreating from the 33.1% jump in August.

The International Monetary Fund releases its World Economic Outlook report during annual meetings. The latest forecasts are likely to underscore the relatively quick economic rebound of advanced economies alongside a slower recovery in developing nations with less access to Covid-19 vaccines.

China’s factory-gate prices for September are expected to surge 10.4% from a year earlier, a pace that would surpass its previous peak in 2008, according to economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Higher commodity costs have led to the rise in producer prices this year, but so far that hasn’t fed through to consumer inflation. Economists forecast the consumer-price index rose only 0.7% from a year earlier in September.

September’s U.S. consumer-price index is expected to show inflation remained elevated as companies passed along higher costs for materials and labor. Rising energy prices likely contributed to the headline CPI, while core prices, which exclude food and energy, might start to reflect climbing shelter costs.

The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its September meeting, potentially offering additional insight on plans to start reducing pandemic-related stimulus.

U.S. jobless claims are forecast to fall for the second consecutive week as employers hold on to workers in a tight labor market. The data on claims, a proxy for layoffs, will cover the week ended Oct. 9.

U.S. retail sales are expected to fall in September. U.S. consumers appear to be in decent financial shape, but Covid-related caution, rising prices and widespread supply-chain disruptions are tamping down purchases. The auto industry has been especially hard hit by a semiconductor shortage—separate data released earlier this month show U.S. vehicle sales in September fell to their lowest level since early in the pandemic.

By: WSJ staff

Source: Economy Week Ahead: Inflation, Jobless Claims, Retail Sales – TechiLive.in

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5 Ways AI Can Help Mitigate The Global Shipping Crisis

With the fourth Now we have a quarter on us, all industries are faced with the challenge of managing a holiday production schedule that will deliver the products. The key for startups looking to defend the quarter from disruptions is to take a proactive, data-driven approach to inventory management.

Here are five methods we’ve been advising clients to adopt:

Use data and analysis to identify and map inventory that is impacted by the global shipping crisis. If you don’t have the data on what’s on a ship carrying your materials, use this crisis as an opportunity to justify prioritizing supply chain digital transformation with advanced data, IoT, and analytics (e.g. machine learning and simulation).
You need to know the location of your products at all times if you are to successfully assess the impact a shortage will have on your operation. Eventually, AI will aid startups realize how myriad disruptions impact their provide chain so they can better respond with a Prepare B when the unthinkable comes about.
If you don’t have the data available, you should partner with a vendor and use a secure environment to share third-party data to provide actionable AI-driven insights on business impact on all parties involved, from start-up to commissioning. retailer. to the consumer.
Simulate and forecast the impact of these problems on the supply side on the demand side. Perform scenario planning exercises and inform critical business decisions. If this capability is not in place, an emergency such as a pandemic, civil unrest, or an uncontrollable rate hike will wreak havoc on your business plan. Use this situation as an opportunity to implement a disaster management program to prepare for potential risks.

By: Ahmer Inam

Ahmer Inam is the chief synthetic intelligence officer (CAIO) at Pactera EDGE. He has greater than 20 years of expertise driving organizational transformation. His expertise contains management roles at Nike Inc., Wells Fargo, Sonic Automotive and Cambia Well being Options.

Source: 5 ways AI can help mitigate the global shipping crisis | TechCrunch