This Is The Biggest Fear CEF Investors Have In This Market

Hundred Dollar Bill Being Cut With a Scissor....getty

Plenty of CEF investors worry about dividend cuts. And for sure, they’re something to keep in mind. But CEFs are not the same as stocks. When we invest in high-quality CEFs, there are a couple other things we need to remember when we catch wind of a cut:

  1. High-quality CEFs will sometimes reduce payouts by a small amount so they can redeploy capital into oversold bargains. I’ll have more to say on this in a moment, but the upshot is that it holds the potential for us to make more in gains from this move than we lose in dividends.
  2. As mentioned, these cuts are usually small, reducing the yield only a small amount (again, we’ll demonstrate this below).

Before we go further, we really should stop for a moment and talk about the importance of diversification. Across a portfolio of multiple CEFs, you can ensure your income won’t change much if you choose funds that are profitable, have big discounts to net asset value (NAV, or the investments in their portfolios) and solid fundamentals that will make them profitable over the long term.

Take, for example, two very different funds: the Nuveen Real Asset Income and Growth Fund (JRI), a holding of my CEF Insider service that mainly holds shares of real estate investment trusts (REITs), utilities and pipelines, as well as bonds issued by these firms; and the corporate bond–focused PIMCO High Income Fund (PHK). Both funds have cut dividends in the past.

What we are seeing here is a history of very small payout cuts over time, including a penny-per-share cut most recently introduced by JRI at the start of this year. PHK’s cuts are bigger but seemingly behind it as dividends have stayed stable since early 2020.

Now consider this. Although PHK’s dividend has been stable for three years, it has earned investors less money. To be sure, JRI’s recent penny-per-share cut does lower distributions a hair, bringing the current yield to 8.7% from 9.6%. But that’s still a very high income stream.

And if you aren’t happy with JRI’s dividend cut from early 2020, you can still sell, then redirect the profits into another CEF with a higher yield.

Moreover, JRI’s penny-per-share cut sets it up for further gains because it lets the fund redeploy its capital into REITs, which are particularly oversold now. An eye for value like that is why JRI is still a strong performer. Adding to its appeal is the fact that despite this, it trades at a huge 13.3% discount to NAV—while the poorer-performing PHK sports an 11% premium!

To delve a little deeper into CEF dividend cuts, let’s go back to JRI’s payout reduction in October 2017, when dividends were cut by half a penny per share. This cut was one reason why I recommended JRI to CEF Insider members. Speaking of Nuveen, I wrote in the October 2017 issue that: “The firm will cut dividends if it thinks that’s good for the fund as a whole—and in JRI’s case, it has been.” That was true in October 2017 and it’s still true in 2023.

It’s also true for a lot of closed-end funds. Of the 10 top-performing CEFs of all-time, all 10 have cut dividends at some point in their history, and seven have cut dividends over the last decade.

However, these funds have also outperformed their benchmark index funds over the same period while yielding about five times as much as the S&P 500, thanks to their 8.6% average yield. In short, these funds get you a high income stream that stays high, even after small cuts here and there, as well as market outperformance.

Check out how just one of those superstar CEFs, the Columbia Seligman Premium Technology Growth Fund (STK), has outrun the S&P 500 for a decade.

It just goes to show that with CEFs, when you focus on long-term total returns instead of a penny dividend cut here or there, and when you diversify into a collection of top-quality funds with high income streams and market-beating potential, you can create true wealth.

Michael Foster is the Lead Research Analyst for Contrarian Outlook. For more great income ideas, click here for our latest report “Indestructible Income: 5 Bargain Funds with Steady 10.2% Dividends.

I have worked as an equity analyst for a decade, focusing on fundamental analysis of businesses and portfolio allocation strategies. My reports are widely read

Source: This Is The Biggest Fear CEF Investors Have In This Market

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Reputation Management For Hedge Funds And Private Equity Could Be Their Smartest Investment

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When it comes to reputational risk, not all business models are created equal. While people are predisposed to like businesses such as pet stores or clothing boutiques, private equity firms and hedge funds rarely inspire warm feelings, even when they create value for investors. Managers of these types of firms and organizations usually understand how vital their reputation is and how serious the impact can be on that reputation if issues crop up.

Concerning his 2022 Survey of the Top 50 Hedge Funds, Eric Uhlfelder remarks that “preserving investor capital and a firm’s reputation should be managers’ most important concerns,” explaining that establishing a reputation in this field takes time and work, and if hit with a huge drawdown, that reputation can instantly get wiped out. And that makes smart reputation management—for hedge funds and private equity alike—all the more important.

The ways in which private equity and hedge fund models are structured can create complex risk issues that must be fully understood to be effectively managed. While both models share some risk management similarities, they also diverge on a few key points.

Reputational Risks Faced By Hedge Funds And Private Equity

Some of the most common risks hedge funds face include poor performance, leading to negative publicity and investor anxiety; operational risk due to mismanagement; regulatory and compliance issues; or problems via association with a company or industry in which they invest.

Private equity firms suffer from the above issues, too, but can also have their reputation sullied by the actions of a portfolio company. On the flip side, they are also at risk of reputational harm if they are viewed by the public as having treated a portfolio company, or its employees, unfairly. And given that private equity firms typically operate under an expected timeline for exiting, if a timely exit is not possible, the firm may face risk from unhappy, liquidity-seeking investors.

While there is considerable overlap, private equity firms and hedge funds do have risk differences. Hedge funds and private equity firms face different regulatory requirements, which creates differing levels of risk for non-compliance. As hedge funds are more public-facing, there is increased potential for negative media coverage or social media backlash. They may face criticism for market speculation or be perceived as an oppositional force to retail traders.

Historically, hedge funds have been more likely to be pilloried for poor performance, while private equity firms have drawn criticism for their use of debt financing and their management of portfolio companies. Due to the fact that private equity firms often increase value or make failing companies viable by cutting costs, they face perception risk created by employee layoffs and other moves.

How Funds And Firms Can Address Reputational Risk

While there is no “one size fits all” solution for mitigating risk or managing the fallout from negative events, there are some common strategies firms and funds can employ. Understanding the operational risks outlined above—and having appropriate processes in place to mitigate risk from things such as compliance or cybersecurity—is imperative.

However, even the best-run firms and funds are not perfectly insulated from risk. So, when a situation arises that creates the opportunity for reputational harm, it’s essential that you have a playbook ready. Here are three important points to keep in mind.

• Be transparent. Firms and funds should be upfront about problems and assume responsibility where and when needed. Trying to be coy or evasive simply undermines trust to an even larger degree.

• Create an action plan. Your plan should address the issue causing reputational harm and be communicated to investors, the media, company employees—anyone with a relevant interest. Explain how the plan solves the issue and prevents similar issues from occurring in the future. Scrutiny of such plans is often intense, so each plan must be carefully crafted. A plan perceived as insufficient can create additional reputational harm.

• Improve performance. Firms and funds coming out of a period of reputational harm will be under the microscope. Improving performance—and staying free from controversy—can help ease concerns and attract new investment or deals. In my experience, a well-performing fund or firm can lose any reputational taint much faster than one that struggles to deliver results.

In some cases, professional reputation management for private equity and hedge funds is recommended. While public relations professionals can help manage perceptions, funds and firms can also be served by partnering with a company that specializes in the field of reputation management.

When seeking a service provider, look for one that has the right experience and domain expertise to create a holistic solution for reputational risk suited to your company and situation, and that disseminates the solution via the proper channels.

When To Put Your Strategy In Place

It’s a common misconception that financial businesses only need reputation management when something negative has appeared in order to rebuild trust with current and potential investors or to reestablish themselves and their reputation. But I believe that reputation management should take place all the time, creating a strong presence and building a controlled situation to mitigate any potential negativity.

It’s important to take ownership of prime “digital real estate,” i.e., well-positioned space on search engine results pages. If these positions are kept secure with optimized SEO on appropriate, significant and high-ranking platforms, unwanted links will find it difficult to break through the barriers that have been created.

From maintaining regular coverage in target publication through PR to having a corporate social responsibility plan and sustainability policy that you actively promote, reputation management for hedge funds and private equity should be a running thread throughout any marketing strategy. When it comes to your reputation, if you’re already in control, you should never need to take back control.

Ran Blayer is the founder and CEO of Percepto, strategic reputation management and digital communications agency. Read Ran Blayer’s full executive profile here.

Source: Reputation Management For Hedge Funds And Private Equity Could Be Their Smartest Investment

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CompoundBanc Introduces Technology-Based Real Estate Investing

Real estate investing requires a close look at the data...getty

Real estate investing is moving away from its traditional roots into a technology based process that uses public and private real estate data including transactions, market analysis and deep market knowledge to guide investment actions.

CompoundBanc uses this data as the basis for its investment decisions. The financial technology company creates investment products for retail investors. The company has launched what it calls Compound Real Estate Bonds, along with its technology platform, WarrenIQ on February 17, 2023.

In the past, investing in real estate bonds was time and labor intensive and had a high administrative load. CompoundBanc similifies the process throughout the transaction. They utilize WarrenIQ, to analyze available data science other factors to enhance investment decision-making including market selection and risk mitigation in real estate.

In addition, the platform performs comprehensive data analysis to identify undervalued opportunities and markets, supporting the company’s investment principles. This is done via proprietary algorithms, machine learning, and AI.

“Unless you’re investing in a REIT, the data is so fragmented,” said Yuvraj Tuli, CompoundBanc Chief Strategy Officer. “What we’ve done is make it simple so that anyone can invest in Compound Bonds, (the company’s proprietary Compound Real Estate Bonds) and anyone can get their money out any time they want,” he explained.

“We have made real estate investment available to the everyday person who wants to invest. Investments can begin with just $10.” CompoundBanc’s platform ingests thousands of data points from real estate listings, Mobility Market Intelligence (MMI), CoreLogic, and commercial real estate databases.

It identifies trends and patterns in pricing and assesses risk for the team by assigning a proprietary score to each property. Then, the firm’s professional investment team reviews the data, adds their research into the mix and makes a final decision.

WarrenIQ operates on fundamental long-term principles of successful real estate investing, while helping to execute the company’s investment principles and managing a mountain of data. By using this system for their data ingestion, monitoring, aggregation, and sorting, the company can analyze it in real-time, making portfolio decisions that respond to market conditions across geographic areas.

The company said that this gives both it and their Compound Bonds a significant advantage in the space. And it said that by combining the human intelligence of their team of data scientists and professional real estate investors with WarrenIQ, the company is mitigating both investment and asset risk. This is intended to improve the rate of return on every dollar invested.

The company reports that it has a full team of seasoned professionals working on their investments and technology. This includes the creation of a transparent digital app that gives investors access to data in real-time that was once reserved only for billion-dollar institutions.

“We’re making investment available to the 99% of people who might not have been able to invest before,” said Tuli. “Our app utilizes a three-step process, sign up, create your account, and purchase your bonds. It’s exactly like a bank account. You can see how many bonds you have, how much interest you burn, and you can withdraw your funds any time.”

Wayne Rash is a science and technology writer based in Washington, DC. He’s a columnist for eWEEK and writes for PC Magazine.

Source: CompoundBanc Introduces Technology-Based Real Estate Investing

.

Related contents:

The National Association of Home Builders Archived 2010-09-22 at the Wayback Machine, accessed September 16, 2010

Homepage Housing Industry AssociationDeng, Yongheng; Girardin, Eric; Joyeux, Roselyne (2018).

Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy” (PDF). China Economic Review. 48: 205–222. doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2016.10.011.James Chen (May 2, 2019).

What Is Real Estate?”. investopedia.com. Retrieved May 13, 2019.

Louisiana Purchase: Primary Documents in American History”. Library of Congress Research Guides.

History of National Association of Realtors”. National Association of Realtors. 13 January 2012.

National Parks, Military Parks, Monuments, and Seashores; Minute Man National Historical Park”. US Legal.Kimberley Amadeo (March 28, 2019).

Real Estate, What It Is and How It Works”. thebalance.com. Retrieved May 13, 2019.“Introduction to U.S. Economy: Housing Market”. Congressional Research Service. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 2021.

Why Manhattan’s Skyscrapers Are Empty”. The Atlantic. 16 Jan 2020.

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Emotional Creativity: How We Become Better Creative Thinkers

An interesting realization came to me recently: I've never achieved a creative insight in a routine setting.

It’s a sobering thought. Think of all the time we spend in routine settings, engaged in routine activities. Consider the typical business meeting, for example. How often have you experienced a creative insight–from others or from yourself–during one of those meetings?

While traveling, however, I’ve experienced many fresh perspectives and generated quite a few new ideas. The more unique the travel destination, such as the Alaska glacier shown above, the more likely it’s been that I’ve arrived at important realizations.

The interesting thing is that I never go into those travel experiences expecting or needing creative outcomes. Rather, they seem to come naturally.

Why is it that we can find creativity on a simple walk through the neighborhood, but not in a business meeting where it might be most needed? Why is it that I find the trading floors among financial firms to be among the least creative settings I’ve encountered–so much so that traders and portfolio managers routinely concern themselves with “positioning”: the degree to which trade ideas are widely subscribed?

If creativity were simply an inborn trait or an acquired set of skills, setting should not matter so greatly in the generation of new ideas. When we look at business settings that are successful in cultivating creativity, such as those described by Ed Catmull of Pixar Animation and Disney Animation, we find that they feature vigorous debate, laughter, and participation; research trips; and active experiments.

Even during meetings, participants actively move around the room, draw on boards, and try things out. In short, they are actively engaged, emotionally and physically. They are doing and feeling new things, and that helps them generate new ideas.Just like a trip to Alaska: creativity seems to be a function of fresh experiencing.

A provocative line of psychology research from James Averill, Ph.D. of the University of Massachusetts supports this notion. He has researched what he calls “emotional creativity”: the capacity to experience the world in novel, authentic, and effective ways. Creativity, he maintains, is not limited to the domain of ideas; it is expressed equally in our responses to people, places, and events.

Consider the artist who travels to a beautiful area of the world and experiences a vista with a sense of awe. The combination of clouds, sky, and mountains evoke for the artist an otherworldly sense that becomes the inspiration for a painting. In such an instance, the creative work is facilitated by an emotional creativity: the ability to experience the world distinctively.

Emotional creativity is hardly limited to artists. I recently met with a portfolio manager who was visibly excited about the opportunities in financial markets. I expressed surprise, as most market participants perceived few opportunities at that time. The manager exclaimed that this was precisely why he was excited:

In his experience, the consensus of the herd was never correct and now there was a market consensus–not about a trade but about an absence of trading opportunity! Perhaps not coincidentally, this occurred days before the Brexit vote and considerable dislocations in markets. He perceived the same lack of conviction as other money managers. What differed was his emotional response to the situation.

Averill makes the interesting point that emotional creativity may lie at the heart of spirituality, the ability to experience the ordinary world in extraordinary ways. If we think about how we generate spiritual experiences, whether through the disciplines of meditation or yoga or through religious worship and practice, we can see that a common ingredient is a shifting of our focus and state of awareness.

If we wish to engage the world spiritually, we invariably exit our daily routines and cultivate distinctive states of consciousness. This is not so far from what happens in the creative business practices described by Catmull: we become more physically and emotionally engaged.

The implications are profound for the business world and for our personal lives. Much of what we do is structured to get things done efficiently by turning activities into habits and routines. Yet it is in the mode of habit and routine that we are least likely to be distinctively engaged with the world emotionally and physically.

Quite literally, our modes of physical and emotional engagement with the world are too dialed-down to generate the fresh perspectives that will enable us to adapt to changing markets and changing business landscapes.

We become better creative thinkers when we become more emotionally creative, and we become more emotionally creative when we actively engage the world in fresh ways. Whether in our careers or our relationships, new doing can catalyze new viewing.

I am Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY.

Source: Emotional Creativity: How We Become Better Creative Thinkers

.

Related contents:

Drivers and Enablers: Learning from Creative Thinking Experts University ofAI and Human Creativity: 5 Ways To Cultivate Creative Thinking Skills Newsweek

Setting a benchmark for creative thinking The University of Sunderland
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20 Great Stock Ideas For 2023 From Top-Performing Fund Managers

2022 was a terrible year for stocks. The S&P 500 has lost 20%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down nearly 10% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plummeted more than 30%. Blame it on raging inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve, the War in Ukraine or a looming global recession.

Given that the days of just buying the S&P 500 or some other broad index fund to garner double digit returns appear to be in the rearview mirror, experts believe it is now a so-called “stock pickers market.”

With that, Forbes tapped Morningstar to identify top-performing fund managers who have either beat their benchmarks this year or on a longer-term basis over three-year, five-year or ten-year periods. Here are their best stock ideas for the coming year.

*Stock prices and fund returns are as of 12/23/2022

Charles Lemonides

ValueWorks Ltd. Partners Long-Biased: Long-term strategy that finds disparities between a company’s underlying assets and security price.

2022 return: 39.4%, 5-year average annual return: 23.9%

Chord Energy (CHRD)

Market Capitalization: $5.5 billion

12-Month Revenues: $3.2 billion

Lemonides likes Chord Energy, which he calls ideal for a bumpy period in markets as it is a “defensive play with huge cash generation” that is selling at an “exceedingly attractive valuation.” The company owns nearly one million net acres of drilling rights, formed in July after the successful merger of Oasis and Whiting Petroleum. Both had previously spent billions of dollars building resources in the Permian Basin—so during the pandemic, many fund managers like Lemonides bought up the distressed debt in the two companies for cents on the dollar.

While Chord Energy currently has a $5.6 billion market cap, both Oasis and Whiting each had valuations far above that at their last peak five years ago, he points out. “Back then oil prices were roughly $80 per barrel, and today they’re basically around that,” Lemonides says, noting the two recently merged enterprises are “producing far more oil today than they were back then.” He also likes the fact that Chord Energy is “very shareholder friendly,” returning the great bulk of its more than $1 billion in free cash flow during the last year and a half to shareholders in the form of stock buybacks or dividends: “That’s cash money in shareholders’ pockets.”

Air Lease (AL)

Market Capitalization: $4.1 billion

12-Month Revenues: $2.3 billion

Lemonides is also a fan of Air Lease, which purchases commercial aircraft and leases them to airline customers worldwide. “The industry has gone through as tumultuous an experience as one can imagine with the pandemic, but Air Lease has basically been financially healthy through the other side of that,” he says. “While some airlines have struggled, the industry seems to be on the mend in a powerful way globally.”

Though the company has some debt, with travel rebounding and many planes at capacity, Air Lease is poised to benefit from its pricing flexibility and huge fleet of aircraft. “You’re paying for equity at a $4 billion market cap, but they own roughly $30 billion worth of aircraft that are probably continuing to appreciate in value annually,” even during inflationary environments, Lemonides describes.

“Airplanes always went up in value during my experience in the 80’s and 90’s,” he says. At current valuation levels—with shares down 17% in 2022, “it just doesn’t make a lot of sense not to buy.”

James Davolos

Kinetics Small-Cap Opportunities Fund:

Concentrated portfolio of small- to mid-sized growth companies.

2022 return: 34.7%, 5-year average annual return: 21.9%

CACI International (CACI)

Market Capitalization: $7.1 billion

12-Month Revenues: $6.3 billion

A long-time holding which the fund has owned for more than 10 years, Davolos highlights “defense technology” company CACI International, which he thinks covers “all the right niches that are relevant for national security.” Unlike Lockheed Martin or Northrop Grumman, which manufacture missiles and planes, CACI specializes in battlefield communications, encryption and cybersecurity.

“Given the modern form of warfare, these areas have much higher secular growth than capital goods-focused defense companies,” Davolos says. “But the market still treats it like a traditional defense contractor, with its fortunes heavily intertwined with defense budgets and the hawkishness of the current administration.”

Despite a slowing economy with interest rates staying high, most of CACI’s revenue comes from somewhere within the Department of Defense ecosystem, he describes, adding that government contracts are much less sensitive to inflation or an economic slowdown. Even after rising 9% in 2022, shares of the company “remain cheap on an absolute basis”—especially when compared with more traditional defense contractors with heavy capital expenditures.

Permian Basin Royalty Trust (PBT)

Market Capitalization: $1.1 billion

12-Month Revenues: $42 million

Shares of Permian Basin Royalty Trust, which have risen 116% this year, could be poised for further upside in 2023, according to Davolos. The trust itself is a passive royalty on the Waddell Ranch, the lease on which was bought by a private company Blackbeard Operating just over two years ago. The small-cap operator has made some exciting strides improving old wells by injecting fluid or carbon dioxide—and though relatively cheap per well, those costs have obscured the dividend, leading to a retail selloff in the stock.

Once Blackbeard’s capital expenditures taper off, however, “the stock could easily be distributing a dividend of $3 to $4 per share next year,” Davolos predicts. “You’re not just betting on capital expenditures rolling over and higher energy prices—Blakckbeard is also ramping up production in these wells significantly,” which will also pay off, he describes. The fund initiated a position in mid-2020, using the collapse in energy prices brought on by the pandemic as an opportunity to buy up shares on the cheap.

“If you underwrite an assumption of higher oil and gas prices next year, which we think is going to happen, the dividend will rerate materially—especially as these new wells come online,” Davolos adds.

Kimball Brooker

First Eagle Global Fund: Wide-ranging portfolio of mid- to large-sized growth and value companies, with hedges for volatility.

2022 return: -8%, 10-year average annual return: 6.2%

HCA Healthcare (HCA)

Market Capitalization: $67.8 billion

12-Month Revenues : $59.8 billion

Brooker likes HCA Healthcare—the largest hospital company in the United States, with more than 180 sites of care–because it has “developed a market share big enough so they can use scale to create the best facilities around.” A for-profit operator that is one of the nation’s leading providers of healthcare services, shares of HCA are down nearly 7% in 2022.

The fund has owned the stock since early 2018, when shares tanked after an earnings warning related to margin compression. HCA’s top line was hard-hit during the pandemic, both by hospital patients delaying visits or elective surgeries as well as by wage inflation for in-demand nurses, though both of those concerns have been gradually resolving, Brooker describes.

While the stock has struggled as a result, he says that HCA will be able to eventually pass price increases on to consumers, not to mention continue to generate “robust cash flows” as hospital visits continue to tick up. What’s more, unlike most hospitals–which are not-for-profit–the company is able to reinvest significant cash to upgrade facilities and thereby attract better doctors and improve patient outcomes, Brooker adds.

Comcast (CMCSA)

Market Capitalization: $153 billion

12-Month Revenues: $121 billion

A longtime and currently top-10 holding of the fund, Comcast may appear to have a mountain of debt—roughly $90 billion at the end of September. “In reality, the company has used these years of low rates to take advantage of reasonably cheap financing,” with a weighted average maturity in 2037 and weighted average coupon of around 3.5%, Brooker describes.

“These aren’t particularly scary credit metrics.” He still likes Comcast, shares of which have fallen 32% this year, because of its under-the-radar dividend, which has consistently grown over the past decade and now yields just over 3%. He describes the company as a “durable, sensibly run business” with solid free cash flow, mainly focused on broadband cable but also with elements of diversification with content streaming and theme parks.

“Comcast has a high-quality problem—market share is so high that subscriber growth is harder to get, but at the same time pricing can be used as a potential lever, so it really is a double-edged sword.” One potential catalyst to watch for in the next few years: Comcast’s roughly 33% stake in Hulu, which has an upcoming put option allowing the company to sell to Disney. “At a minimum total valuation of around $27 billion for Hulu, that could result in roughly $9 billion for Comcast,” Brooker points out.

Thomas Huber

T. Rowe Price Dividend Growth Fund: Blend of large-cap companies with a focus on dividend growers.

2022 return: -11.2%, 10-year average annual return: 12.6%

Becton Dickinson (BDX BDX )

Market Capitalization: $71.5 billion

12-Month Revenues: $19.4 billion

Huber likes BD, which he calls a “good defensive growth company” that has reasonable earnings visibility. The fund has owned the stock for a number of years, but it has struggled with disappointing margins and an FDA recall on its Alaris infusion pump last year. Still, “the worst is behind it,” says Huber, who points out that the company has “gotten its act together” with good new product flow, a healthy cost management program, some small M&A deals and steadily improving margins.

The relaunch of BD’s Alaris pump is still a wild card and probably won’t happen until at least 2024, but that has helped boost sentiment, he describes. “There is good money to be made in companies as they improve and come out of a troubled period, whether it is self-inflicted or market driven,” Huber says.

What’s more, while BD’s dividend yield of around 1.5% is by no means huge, it is raising it steadily over time, which is “a sign of a healthy, consistently growing business,” he adds. “All of that is important in a world where rates are rising and growth is slowing.”

Philip Morris International (PM)

Market Capitalization: $156 billion

12-Month Revenues: $31.7 billion

A holding of the fund since 2008, Philip Morris International is a “stock where you’re paid to wait” thanks to a 5% dividend yield, according to Huber. He thinks the tobacco company is “nicely set up as we go into next year;” While Philip Morris took a hit from the strong U.S. dollar earlier in 2022, the currency has since weakened, which could be a big headwind abating, Huber says.

He is a big fan of the main product, the iQOS, a device, which uses heat rather than burn technology to consume tobacco. In addition to being a healthier alternative to regular cigarettes, the reduced risk product (RRP) category has higher margins than the core traditional tobacco business. “Philip Morris has invested heavily—roughly $9 billion in this category—and is now well ahead of the competition,” Huber says, adding that the company boasts “an enormous first-mover advantage.”

It recently acquired Swedish Match, a smaller, multinational tobacco company that crucially gives Philip Morris a distribution line for iQOS in the United States. While former parent Altria doesn’t want to cannibalize its own tobacco business domestically, Philip Morris paid several billion to break the existing agreement between the two companies, now paving the way for a launch in U.S. markets that could be as soon as 2023 or 2024, Huber describes. “That obviously has positive implications for the company and the stock.”

Christopher Marangi

The Gabelli Value 25 Fund: Portfolio of companies selling below private market value, with 25 core equity positions.

2022 return: -17.3%, 10-year average annual return: 5.3%

Liberty Media Series C Liberty Braves Common Stock (BATRK)

Market Capitalization: $1.7 billion

12-Month Revenues: $637 million

Marangi highlights this tracker stock, up 12% this year, which owns the Atlanta Braves baseball team as well as the real estate development rights around its ballpark. “By buying the stock at market today, you’re buying equity in the Braves at a roughly $1.5 billion valuation,” he describes, adding, “the New York Mets sold for $2.4 billion during Covid—and the Braves generate much more revenue.”

Though there is roughly $400 million in debt on the franchise, Marangi thinks that if sold, the Braves could garner a valuation nearing $3 billion. Sports franchises tend to trade as a multiple of revenue, but there has been “no slowdown in the public’s appetite for live entertainment post-pandemic,” he points out.

One catalyst to watch: Parent company Liberty Media, which also owns Formula One, announced in November that it would spin off the Braves into a separate asset. “Once that happens, it’s likely the team could get sold to a private buyer,” Marangi theorizes. “Sports franchises in general have been excellent stores of value, whether in an inflationary or deflationary environment.”

Dish Network (DISH)

Market Capitalization: $7.3 billion

12-Month Revenues: $17.1 billion

Despite a nearly 58% decline in Dish Network shares in 2022, Marangi has high hopes for the satellite TV and wireless services provider next year, having owned the stock for decades. “Communication services has been the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 for a lot of reasons—both secular and cyclical,” he describes. “Still, there is a tremendous amount of asset value in the stock today.”

He calls the company’s traditional satellite video business a “melting ice cube,” as it has taken a hit from cord-cutting, though it still generates large amounts of free cash flow. Marangi is particularly excited about the company’s wireless-network business: Dish has been spending tens of billions to acquire spectrum licenses across the country as it builds out a 5G network.

“The market is only pricing in a fraction of the value of those licenses,” he argues, with large upside potential for earnings to recover as the company eventually monetizes its investment. “This brand-new network won’t be held back by 4G subscribers who have to transition to 5G,” Marangi says, adding, “Dish can also be aggressive with pricing” as it competes with incumbent providers. Another area to watch for is a potential merger with DirecTV, which could “extend the life and cash flow” of both companies’ traditional video business, he predicts.

Eric Schoenstein

Jensen Quality Growth Fund: Portfolio of 30 large-cap growth companies.

2022 return: -17.4%, 10-year average annual return: 13.1%

TJX (TJX)

Market Capitalization: $90 billion

12-Month Revenues: $49.3 billion

A 10-year holding, off-price department store corporation TJX operates brands like T.J. Maxx, Marshalls and HomeGoods, with nearly 4,700 stores across nine countries and three continents. Schoenstein sees potential for the stock next year, calling it “relatively resilient, with defensive characteristics and a strong correlation to consumer spending” that can help its business withstand a slowing economy in 2023.

“As people have less money to spend, consumers will be more thoughtful about how they spend—and TJX plays a valuable role from that perspective,” he describes. A big selling point of TJX is its great deals, and thanks to prices that are low relative to peers, that helps drive customer loyalty, according to Schoenstein.

Amid an environment where consumers are facing higher rents, mortgages and home-ownership costs, TJX stands to benefit from the subsequent “trade-down effect” and “bargain theory” as consumers cut back spending. The stock has outperformed the market in 2022—not to mention many other retailers–rising nearly 3%.

UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

Market Capitalization: $491.3 billion

12-Month Revenues: $313.1 billion

Another of Schoenstein’s top picks is Minnesota-based UnitedHealth Group, the largest managed-healthcare and insurance company in the country, serving roughly 149 million people. In a slowing economic environment, not only is UnitedHealth a defensive play—with shares rising roughly 3.5% this year, but also “a growth company at the same time,” he describes, calling it “a long-term opportunity, albeit one that has generated some nice returns for us in an otherwise challenging year.”

Now a top five holding in the fund, Schoenstein admires the company’s resilient business model and ability to generate substantial cash flow—with stable earnings growth to limit volatility in the stock, he argues. “That is something that will be much more relevant in 2023, compared to the past where momentum was the play of the day.” UnitedHealth has managed through bumpy periods before, he points out, not to mention the company has grown, giving it the ability to scale up or down depending on the economic backdrop.

While the stock is susceptible to news of potential government regulation in the healthcare sector, “that particular threat seems to have died down somewhat,” with further upside ahead as more people get access to insurance and Medicaid programs around the country, according to Schoenstein.

Kenneth Kuhrt

Ariel Fund: Flagship value fund, primarily focused on small- to mid-sized companies.

2022 return: -19.9%, 10-year average annual return: 10.1%

Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL)

Market Capitalization: $12.5 billion

12-Month Revenues: $7.2 billion

The Ariel Fund has owned shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises, the number two player in the cruise line industry, for roughly 15 years. Like the other major cruise operators, Royal Caribbean struggled as pandemic lockdowns effectively crippled the industry with fleets under extended no-sail orders.

Still, the company is “frequently misunderstood in terms of the stability of the business model,” argues Kuhrt, adding, “not many companies can be shut down for a year and a half then survive and prosper on the other side of that.” Markets continue to take a very short-term outlook on the cruise industry in general, with investors growing fearful of headlines relating to everything from energy prices to geopolitics, he describes.

“We’re surprised the market isn’t giving Royal Caribbean more credit for their recent earnings guidance and business ramp up.” Despite a 37% drop in the stock this year, Kuhrt points to “significant upside” ahead, especially as management aims for double-digit earnings power by 2025. He also emphasizes that on a comparable basis, cruise pricing is now above pre-pandemic levels, while occupancy rates have also rebounded significantly. “A big part of the story is customer retention,” he says. “The cruise line industry is connected to and understands its customer base better than we’ve ever seen before.”

Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)

Market Capitalization: $12.6 billion

12-Month Revenues: $5.7 billion

This market leader in enterprise asset intelligence, which focuses on bar-code scanning and inventory tracking technology, trades at a “significant discount to its underlying intrinsic value,” Kuhrt says. Zebra Technologies’ large customers include Amazon, Target and many others spanning a range of sectors including retail, manufacturing, healthcare and transportation. While the stock was at $600 per share just one year ago, it has suffered a big dislocation–now down to $250and has undergone multiple compression because of its ties to the technology sector.

Still, investors are underestimating the fundamental earnings power of the business, Kuhrt describes: “Decades ago, the business model revolved around just scanning a barcode; Now, the complexity of logistics and tracking assets is ever increasing.” He is particularly optimistic about some of Zebra’s newer technologies, such as radio-frequency identification (RFID), which uses electromagnetic fields to track and identify different objects in transit. In the nearly 10 years that the fund has owned Zebra’s stock, the company has “continued to adapt and grow” and will continue to do so, despite Wall Street’s concerns about an economic slowdown, Kuhrt argues.

Amy Zhang

Alger Mid-Cap Focus Fund: Focused portfolio of around 50 mid-size companies.

2022 return: -36%, Average annual return since inception (2019): 9.1%

Waste Connections (WCN)

Market Capitalization: $34.3 billion

12-Month Revenues: $7 billion

Zhang likes this Woodlands, Texas-based waste collection, disposal and recycling company, which she calls a “defensive business that would be resilient in a slowing economic environment.” Waste Connections, shares of which are down just 1% in 2022, serves millions of customers across the United States and Canada—with a focus on exclusive and secondary markets that helps guarantee “durable revenue growth.”

Zhang notes that in a business less focused on volume growth and more concerned with pricing, Waste Connections has a strong track record of industry-leading margins and cash flow. Waste management is a stable, defensive business that typically does well during recessions, Zhang points out. Thanks to the company’s pricing power and “superior market selection strategy,” she thinks Waste Connections will be “even more resilient than its peers” going into next year.

Zhang expects margins to improve in 2023 as inflation headwinds dissipate, while also emphasizing that the company could “continue to be an M&A flywheel” if it keeps making smart acquisitions to shore up market share.

Insulet (PODD)

Market Capitalization: $20.7 billion

12-Month Revenues: $1.2 billion

Zhang is also excited about “long-term compounder” Insulet, a medical device company focused on treating diabetes patients through its body-worn Omnipod insulin pump. One of the fund’s top 10 positions, shares have risen nearly 10% this year, outperforming peers in the medtech sector. Beyond the classic Omnipod and Omnipod Dash DASH insulin management systems, Insulet’s sales have gotten a massive boost this year thanks to the company’s newest device, the Omnipod 5 automated delivery system, which received FDA clearance in early 2022 with a full U.S. launch in late summer.

Zhang calls it a “revolutionary new product,” as it is the first tubeless, automated insulin delivery system on the market. “With many diabetes patients still using tube-based pumps or administering injections, Omnipod has a clear advantage to both alternatives,” she says, adding, “it’s been gaining significant market share and has huge potential market penetration.” Insulet’s “high revenue visibility and predictability,” especially with further adoption of the Omnipod 5 next year, makes this a “recession-resilient stock” that is “particularly appealing in an economic slowdown.”

Nancy Zevenbergen

Zevenbergen Growth Fund: Mostly large-cap consumer and tech companies.

2022 return: -52%, 5-year average annual return: 7%

DoubleVerify (DV)

Market Capitalization: $3.6 billion

12-Month Revenues: $424 million

Zevenbergen likes DoubleVerify, a small-cap software company focused on providing verification and safety for digital brand advertising. DoubleVerify’s technology helps brands and publishers with viewability, by detecting fraud and by protecting brand safety. Zevenbergen’s fund has owned the stock since its IPO in April 2021, but despite being profitable with top-line growth, shares have declined over 30% this year and are now trading below their initial share offering price of $27.

DoubleVerify has seen a major market correction this year, but within that there is a major opportunity,” says Zevenbergen. Though overall ad spending could go down during an economic slowdown, markets are also “incredibly concerned about brand safety with advertising,” she adds. “This kind of ad spend should preclude the fear of a recession.” Zevernbergen also sees further opportunities as new entrants beyond social media platforms, such as Netflix, enter digital advertising. “Risk of fraud or poor content placement makes DoubleVerify’s insurance very important… advertisers are going to want to have brand safety.”

Bill.com Holding (BILL)

Market Capitalization: $11 billion

12-Month Revenues: $753.5 million

Another of Zevenbergen’s stock picks for 2023 is $11 billion (market cap) cloud-based software fintech Bill.com, which assists small businesses on accounts payable and receivable. Bill.com helps smooth out back-office payments and could benefit as they move money in a rising-rate environment.

After a 54% drop in share price this year due to macroeconomic headwinds, the founder-led company could present an “incredible opportunity” at an attractive valuation thanks to its high-growth and profitability, Zevenbergen describes, adding, “all the negatives have been priced into the stock.” The company is well-positioned, compared with its peers:

“Being able to digitize or substitute software for labor—a tight resource these days—will be a spend that you want to make,” she says. “Competition from fintech startups is also likely to erode slightly because money isn’t free anymore.” While Bill.com’s payment volume has fallen slightly due to a more challenging economic environment, that has been offset by pricing power and new-customer momentum.

Kirsty Gibson

Baillie Gifford U.S. Equity Growth Fund: Concentrated portfolio of growth companies.

2022 return: -53.5%, 5-year average annual return: 7.2%

Duolingo (DUOL)

Market Capitalization: $2.9 billion

12-Month Revenues: $338.7 million

One of the fund’s more recent additions—from the company’s July 2021 IPO—is education tech company Duolingo, known for its app that teaches languages. Shares of the company have fallen roughly 30% this year, and while Duolingo has fallen victim to the collective selloff in growth stocks, “not all growth companies are alike,” Gibson describes. The edtech company has shown promising trends—reporting five consecutive quarters of accelerating user growth, with revenue in the latest quarter rising roughly 50% year over year..

The app, which boasts roughly 15 million daily users, offers entirely free language courses in the form of missions that are unlocked in sequence–with different lessons that are dynamic and adaptively constructed to each individual learner. “One of the hardest parts of learning a new language is staying motivated to keep studying–particularly if you’re not living in that country,” she adds. “Duolingo has taken a gamification approach to overcome this.”

Since the app is free to use, the company has been able to grow organically with relatively low marketing outlays, allowing more cash for product development. Gibson predicts that it will be difficult for potential competitors to come in and disrupt Duolingo’s “great product,” not to mention that the company has room for growth in the form of new products and paid subscriptions that allow users to bypass ads.

Shopify (SHOP)

Market Capitalization: $43.6 billion

12-Month Revenues: $5.2 billion

The fifth-largest holding in Baillie Gifford’s U.S. Equity Growth fund is Canadian e-commerce giant Shopify, shares of which have tanked more than 70% in 2022. “The company is looking to be the central nervous system that powers millions of businesses around the world,” Gibson describes. While Shopify’s stock was “very much a pandemic darling,” it has since seen a significant price decline as companies that are taking losses for future growth have been pulled down by market sentiment, she adds, describing the business as “discretionarily unprofitable” in that it is choosing to invest in new areas for the long run at the expense of short-term margins.

Gibson also likes what she describes as exciting changes such as the company moving into enterprise markets and launching Shopify Audiences, a premium tool that helps businesses find new customers through focused digital advertising on different platforms like Facebook or Google. “We believe we will continue to see Shopify’s ability to adapt and be resilient in this current environment,” she summarizes.

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Send me a secure tip.

I am a staff writer at Forbes covering wealth management, money and markets. Previously, I worked on the breaking news and wealth teams at Forbes, covering the stock market..

Source: 20 Great Stock Ideas For 2023 From Top-Performing Fund Managers

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Power Reviews    https://jvz8.com/c/202927/384625/
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Video Campaignor      https://jvz4.com/c/202927/387058/
Video Games   https://jvz3.com/c/202927/184902/
VideoEnginePro     https://jvz2.com/c/202927/372916
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Voiclet   https://jvz4.com/c/202927/388755/
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WebCop  https://jvz4.com/c/202927/378683/
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WordPress Mastery   https://jvz1.com/c/202927/386249/
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WP GDPR    https://jvz8.com/c/202927/299907
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writing job   https://jvz8.com/c/202927/213027
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