Working in Retirement Often is More a Dream Than Reality

Many workers are staying on the job longer or plan to before going into their golden years.

More retirees said they retired at ages 66-69, rising from 11% in 2021 to 14% in 2022, according to the latest annual survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) and Greenwald Research.

And 7 in 10 workers expect to work for pay as a source of their retirement income, and 1 in 5 are counting on it as a major source, according to the EBRI poll. A growing percentage of workers say they will never retire – 15% in 2022, up from 10% in 2021, according to the EBRI survey.

Unfortunately, expectations of working in retirement can backfire. For workers who plan to work in some fashion for pay after they retire, that desire still appears to be more of a nice notion than a reality. Only 27% of retirees have employment income, according to the EBRI poll.

‘Sad commentary that health insurance has to be such a big factor’

That desire to remain employed is backed up by other recent surveys. More than half of workers (57%) plan to work in retirement citing a variety of reasons ranging from the income to keeping their brains alert, or the social connection, according to the most recent study by the nonprofit Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies.

The specter of soaring medical costs alone is stomach-churning. The average couple age 65 retiring this year and enrolled in Medicare may need approximately $315,000 saved (after tax) to cover healthcare expenses in retirement, according to the Fidelity Retiree Health Care Cost Estimate.

That’s what motivated Russ Eanes, an author, to get back in the workforce after retiring five years ago from his job as chief executive at MennoMedia, a book publisher. A year ago, he went back to work at GetSetUp, an interactive website that delivers virtual education to older adults.

The impetus: A steady paycheck and access to a health insurance plan.

“It’s a sad commentary that health insurance has to be such a big factor in these decisions,” Eanes told Yahoo Money.. “I’m on Medicare as of February, but my wife is a year behind, so we have to scramble to figure out how to have her covered for another year. While I was making out okay as a freelancer, it can be feast or famine.”

Older workers are not always ‘proactive’

But getting back to work or staying employed is not always easy, and in some cases, it can be the workers themselves who short-change their ability to stay on the job longer.

“Many 50+ workers are not proactive about taking steps to help ensure they can work as long as they want and need,” Catherine Collinson, CEO and president of nonprofit Transamerica Institute and Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, told Yahoo Money. “Among those employed by for-profit companies, our research showed that only 62 % are focused on staying healthy so they can continue working and just 44% are keeping their job skills up to date.”

Only a small percentage are networking and meeting new people (16%), taking classes to learn new skills (12%), scoping out the employment market and opportunities available (10 %), attending virtual conferences and webinars (9%), or obtaining a new degree, certification, or professional designation (5 %), Collinson said.

Meantime, more than 2 in 5 workers expect a gradual transition to retirement, according to the EBRI survey.

In reality, “only a fraction of companies offer employees the option of a phased retirement,” Collinson said. “Our most recent employer survey finds 27% of employers offer a formal phased retirement program.”

Forced retirements

Even more troubling– nearly half of retirees retired earlier than they planned.

“Back-to-work plans can be upended by unexpected health challenges and caregiving demands,” Nancy Collamer, a retirement coach and author of “Second-Act Careers: 50+ Ways to Profit from Your Passions During Semi-Retirement,” told Yahoo Money.

The median expected retirement age for workers — age 65 — and the reported retirement age of retirees —age 62, according to the EBRI survey. Two-thirds said their early retirement was for a reason out of their control, such as a health problem or disability, company downsizing or reorganizations, or caregiving for a loved one.

Some of those reasons were amplified by the pandemic.

Since March 2020, 1.1 million more Americans between the ages of 55 and 74 retired earlier than what would have been expected during normal times, according to a recent report from The New School’s Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis. The number of those who retired involuntarily a year after losing a job was 10 times higher than pre-pandemic times, the report found.

‘Beginning to feel the impact of inflation’

This trend may be shifting. As of March 2022, 3.2% of workers who were retired just one year ago are now employed again, according to research by Nick Bunker, the director of economic research at Indeed Hiring Lab.

One caveat: while the EBRI Retirement Confidence Survey was conducted as the inflation rate had already begun its rapid rise, and at that time, the majority of workers and retirees reported being confident that they had enough money to keep up with inflation in retirement, the economic picture is grimmer now.

With the inflation rate at 8.3% in April of 2022, down slightly from 8.5% in March, which was the highest since December of 1981, and the S&P 500 index off its January peak by 16.6%, that exuberance may be fading.

“Some workers are beginning to feel the impact of inflation, and the number is likely to grow,” Copeland said. “How the economy evolves over the next few months is likely to result in workers reconsidering where they stand regarding retirement. If inflation continues at historic rates and the stock market continues falling, more workers will be reevaluating their retirement plans.”

By:

Kerry is a Senior Columnist and Senior Reporter at Yahoo Money. Follow her on Twitter @kerryhannon

Source: Working in retirement often is more a dream than reality

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Will Inflation And The Stock Market Conspire To Kill The 4% Rule?

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A recent WSJ headline sent chills down the backs of every retiree—”Cut Your Retirement Spending Now, Says Creator of the 4% Rule.”

In the article, the WSJ quoted the father of the 4% rule, William Bengen, as saying that “there’s no precedent for today’s conditions.” Stock and bond prices are still at record highs. Mix in a reference to 8.5% inflation, and the WSJ starts to sound like an insurance salesperson pitching indexed annuities.

So are things really that bad? And do retirees need to rethink the 4% Rule? I don’t think so, and here’s why.

The 4% Rule is Now the 4.4% Rule

In the article, Mr. Bengen said he believes a safe initial withdrawal rate is 4.4%. Yes, that’s an increase from his initial findings in his 1994 paper.

In his 1994 paper, he assumed retirees invested in the S&P 500 and intermediate Treasury bonds. That’s it. Since then he expanded the asset classes to include mid-cap, small-cap, micro-cap and international stocks. This diversification caused him to increase the safe withdrawal rate from 4% to 4.7%. Because of the unprecedented conditions noted above, however, new retirees might want to start at 4.4%, he said.

As far as I can tell, the 4.4% rate is not based on data. Still, it represents a 10% increase, not decrease, from his initial 4% rule. That doesn’t sound so bad.

“The combination of 8.5% inflation with high stock and bond market valuations make it difficult to forecast whether the standard playbook will work for recent retirees,” said Bengen. He’s even gone so far as put 70% of his personal portfolio in cash. When the father of the 4% rule cashes out, shouldn’t we?

I don’t think so. For starters, it’s important to understand how Bengen developed the 4% Rule. He examined 50-year retirement periods dating back to 1926. For each, he identified the highest withdrawal rate one could take in the first year of retirement, adjusted for inflation in subsequent years, without running out of money for at least 30 years.

As you might imagine, every year had a different initial withdrawal rate. Some years the starting rate was twice what it was in others. Here’s the key point. He didn’t average all of these initial withdrawal rates to come up with the 4% rule. He took the absolute worst year—1968.

Here’s more on how the 4% Rule works.

What does this mean? It means the 4% Rule has survived the stock market crash of 1929, the Great Depression, WWII, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the inflation of the 1970s and early 1908s, the 1987 market crash, 9/11, the Great Recession and Covid-19.

Stock Prices

No matter how difficult past times have been, current conditions feel awful in ways that history never can. One need look no further than Robert Shiller’s CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) of the S&P 500 to raise concerns. It stands at roughly twice its average and at historic highs. It’s only been higher once, and that was during the tech bubble.

Yet as “unprecedented” as this may seem, it’s not for two reasons. First, most portfolios don’t have the same PE as the S&P 500, even if measured using CAPE. Add in mid-cap, small-cap and international stocks, and the PE comes down significantly.

Second, and more important, the CAPE of the S&P 500 would fall to average with a 50% decline in the S&P 500. This wouldn’t be fun, but it wouldn’t be unprecedented, either.

As noted above, the market lost 90% to kick off the Great Depression. And going back to the tech bubble, the market lost 9%, 12% and 22% from 2000 to 2002. That’s not quite a 50% total loss, but close. And from peak to trough during the Great Recession (2007-2009), the market lost more than 50%. The 4% Rule survived like a cockroach.

Bond Prices and Inflation

Bond yields were at historic lows. I say “were” because that’s no longer the case. The roughly 3% yield on the 10-year Treasury is still below average, but there are plenty of years dating back to the 1800s when they were lower. And when Bengen published his 1994 paper, TIPS were three years away and the first I bond was still four years away. So at least now we can keep up with inflation.

Here’s the key. The 4% Rule has survived Treasury yields as low as 1 to 2%. It also survived inflation of more than 13% and a decade of inflation at 6% or higher. And like the Energizer Bunny, it keeps going and going (or ticking for you Timex fans).

Final Thoughts

Some year might come along that is worse than 1968 for new retirees. Maybe 2022 will turn out to be a worse time to retiree since the late 60s. Perhaps in 30 years we’ll know that for 2022, the initial safe withdrawal rate was 4.2% instead of 4.4%.

But can we really predict that based on current conditions, when the 4% rule has survived much worse? I don’t think so.

Rob is a Contributing Editor for Forbes Advisor, host of the Financial Freedom Show, and the author of Retire Before Mom and Dad–The Simple Numbers Behind a Lifetime of

Source: Will Inflation And The Stock Market Conspire To Kill The 4% Rule?

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Where Not To Die In 2022: The Greediest Death Tax States

Should death be taxing? Amid budget surpluses, states started slashing income taxes last year. But only two have made significant changes to their estate or inheritance taxes so far. Last year Iowa legislators decided to phase out the state’s inheritance tax by January 1, 2025. And this year Nebraska legislators made pro-taxpayer tweaks to its inheritance tax for deaths occurring on or after January 1, 2023.

Other jurisdictions have lessened the tax bite for dying in 2022—through previously scheduled changes or inflation adjustments. But some, without inflation adjustments, are still taxing estates at levels that haven’t budged for years, meaning more families are getting surprise death tax bills. In one of those states—Massachusetts—Democratic legislators are pushing for changes to spare more estates from the tax as part of a broader tax reform package this summer.

In all, 17 states and the District of Columbia levy estate and/or inheritance taxes. Maryland is the outlier that levies both. If you live in one of these states—or might retire to one—pay attention.

These taxes operate separately from the federal estate tax, which applies only to a couple thousand estates a year valued at over $12.06 million per person. (That number is set to drop roughly in half on January 1, 2026, when the Trump tax cuts that temporarily doubled the base exemption from $5 million to $10 million expire.) While few individuals need to plan around the federal estate tax, the state levies all kick in at much lower dollar levels, often making it a middle class problem.

Consider the current state estate tax in Massachusetts. The $1 million estate tax exemption hasn’t been adjusted for inflation since 2006, so it can hit the heirs of middle class folks who have seen their houses and retirement accounts appreciate.

“You can be real estate rich with a modest home, and your estate could be subject to this,” says Scott Cashman, a tax manager with Bowditch & Dewey in Worcester, Massachusetts. “It’s becoming more of an issue every year.” If the $1 million exemption amount set in 2006 had been adjusted for inflation, it would be closer to $1.5 million today.

Say a widow or widower died with a house worth $535,000, a $200,000 bank account, a $350,000 retirement account, and a $15,000 car, for a $1.1 million gross estate. Assuming $50,000 in deductions, the estate tax would be $20,500, he calculates.

(There’s no estate tax when assets are left to a spouse, but in this case the heirs are children.) If the house is worth $1 million, however, the tax would be $65,360— one third of the cash in the bank. Adding to the pain is what’s known as the cliff: Once the $1 million mark is crossed, the estate tax applies to everything over $40,000. “I don’t know if most legislators understand that,” he says.

A bill introduced by Democratic state senators would double the Massachusetts exemption amount to $2 million and only levy tax above that amount, removing the dreaded cliff. “We have such a surplus now, this is the time to do it,” says Cashman. “There’s broad-based support for reform.”

Inheritance taxes—levied in 6 states—can kick in at far lower levels, with the exemption and tax rate depending on the heir’s relationship to the deceased. In New Jersey, for example, if you leave your estate to a Class D beneficiary—including a nephew or non-civil-union partner—they’re taxed at 15% on assets up to $700,000 and 16% on assets above $700,000.

In Nebraska, lawmakers this year fell short of inheritance tax repeal but succeeded in chipping away at the state’s inheritance tax. The new law, effective Jan. 1, 2023, cuts the top tax rates (from 18% to 15%, for example) and increases the exemption amounts (from $10,000 to $25,000, for example). It also eliminates inheritance taxes for heirs under 22, and it makes unadopted step-relatives taxed at the lower rate for nearer family members and not the higher rate for unrelated heirs.

“Lawmakers wouldn’t agree to a general phase-down of the tax at this point that would apply to everyone, but they were willing to accept that if a younger person were to inherit property or cash (and we can use a lot more young residents and entrepreneurs in Nebraska) that it’s not in the state’s economic interest to take any of it away from them,” says Adam Weinberg, communications director with the Platte Institute, which is continuing its effort to repeal the inheritance tax in Nebraska.

Meanwhile, Connecticut, the least taxing of the estate tax states, is on schedule to increase its exemption to $9.1 million in 2022, and then to match the federal exemption for deaths on or after January 1, 2023. In an unusual nod designed to keep the richest taxpayers in the state, Connecticut has a $15 million cap on state estate and gift taxes (which represents the tax due on an estate of approximately $129 million).

Other states with 2022 changes: Washington, D.C. reduced its estate tax exemption amount to $4 million in 2021, but then adjusted that amount for inflation beginning this year, bringing the 2022 exemption amount to $4,254,800. Several states, which all have set their exemption amounts at different base levels, also see inflation adjustments for 2022. Maine’s is $6,010,000, while New York’s is $6,110,000. In Rhode Island, the 2022 exemption amount is $1,648,611.

I cover personal finance, with a focus on retirement planning, trusts and estates strategies, and taxwise charitable giving. I’ve written for Forbes since 1997.

Source: Where Not To Die In 2022: The Greediest Death Tax States

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How Much Liquidity Does Your Portfolio Need During Ages 30, 40, 50, 60+

The global market’s volatility and increasing inflation is likely a cause for concern as you manage your portfolio.  With these challenges, it’s advisable to incorporate liquidity into your planning.

Liquidity is described as the amount of cash you can readily access, or how quickly you can convert assets to cash. The need for liquidity can vary depending on your age and risk tolerance, and short and long term financial goals. We’ve asked financial experts for their advice about how to plan your liquidity strategy as you age.

Liquid emergency savings for unforeseen life events

According to financial experts, you should have about six months of liquid living expenses set aside in an emergency fund, if you encounter a job loss, experience a medical emergency or have a sudden expense like a car repair.

“At any age we recommend an emergency fund in cash or cash investments to cover roughly six-month expenditures.”

“At any age we recommend an emergency fund in cash or cash investments to cover roughly six-month expenditures,” says Rob Williams, CFP®, CRPC®, managing director, financial planning, retirement income and wealth management, Schwab Center for Financial Research. “They can cover a one-time surprise expense or tide you over if you have an illness, change jobs, or have another expense, to help avoid the need to sell investments.”

How your age factors in on your liquidity path

According to Williams, investors aged 30 to their early 60s and still working and who do not need money from their portfolio soon could start with around 5% of their portfolio in cash and cash investments, based on the time horizon and risk tolerance.

And, for investors nearing retirement, when they may need to start tapping their portfolio, or another goal, such as paying for a child’s education, may want to hold a higher proportion in cash and cash investments in their portfolio, Williams says.

“We suggest, generally, that investors hold the next year of money that they may need to withdraw from a portfolio, to pay for a goal or expense in cash or cash investments.”

“We suggest, generally, that investors hold the next year of money they may need to withdraw from a portfolio, to pay for a goal or expense, in cash or cash investments,” Williams explains. “This is a good guideline, to determine how much you might want to hold based not just on your age, but your goals as well.”

How goals can influence your decade-by-decade liquidity decisions

John Pilkington, CFP, senior financial advisor with Vanguard Personal Advisor Services, also recommends setting aside 3-6 months’ worth of expenses in an emergency fund, and, given an individual’s or couple’s lifestyle and financial goals, he advises to consider how liquid reserves fit into a broader financial plan.

“For example, if someone is in their early 40s and is planning a significant purchase, such as a vacation property, in the near future, they will have significantly higher liquidity needs than someone of the same age who is only saving for longer term goals,” he says.

Other factors that can impact your need for liquidity could be financing a child’s education or creating a retirement plan.

“Typically, those in their 30s and 40s have competing financial goals – think paying down a mortgage, student loans, saving for children’s future college expenses, saving for retirement – and therefore have a higher need for liquidity should they need to tap funds amid planning other financial obligations,” Pilkington says.

As he mentioned,  a challenge that many in these 30s to 40s decades face is the ability to create liquid reserves, as their competing goals are co-existing among higher debt burdens.

“This audience can benefit from looking at alternative sources of liquidity – such as a home equity line of credit, tapping a Roth IRA, or a personal loan,” adds Pilkington.

Source: How much liquidity does your portfolio need during ages 30, 40, 50, 60+ ? | Fox Business

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Critics:

Liquidity becomes even more critical to consider in the context of an investor’s financial goals. For most, goals can be described most simply as certain amounts of money needed at particular points in time. However, when the time comes, investors will likely need to fund their goals in the form of cash, rather than in the form of financial securities or art.

Of course, exceptions exist for example, a charitable donation of stock or repurposing a piece of real estate investment property to serve as a retirement home. Your financial advisor has the tools and resources to incorporate your financial goals into your long-term plan. To illustrate this, consider a goal of funding a child’s university education. For most, this involves multiple payments of cash over the course of a few years at some point in the future.

When the tuition due-date nears, the portfolio of securities would likely need to become less risky, more stable, more liquid, and more accessible in order to ensure the tuition payment clears. The graph below depicts a hypothetical example of how the cash required over the child’s age increases as he approaches his college education years – requiring strategic planning for liquidity needs.

Especially in the case of relatively large financial goals such as funding higher-education, the chances that your goals become a reality can be improved by starting early, having a long-term focus, and putting a plan in place with your financial advisor.

More contents:

Liquidity – Dictionary Definition of Liquidity”. About.com Education. Archived from the original on 17 April 2015. Retrieved 27 May 2015.

Keynes, John Maynard. A Treatise on Money. Vol. 2. p. 67.

TradeLive”. TradeLive.in. Archived from the original on 26 December 2017. Retrieved 27 May 2015.

The Performance of Liquidity in the Subprime Mortgage Crisis” (PDF). New Political Economy. 15 (1): 71-89. doi:10.1080/13563460903553624. S2CID 153899413.

Mifid ushers in a new era of trading”. Financial Times. Retrieved 27 May 2015.

Understanding Financial Liquidity”. Investopedia.com. Investopedia US. Archived from the original on 3 May 2018. Retrieved 11 August 2014.

Why Stocks Are Rising: It’s The Liquidity, Stupid!”. Yahoo Finance. Archived from the original on 1 June 2013. Retrieved 11 August 2014.

Liquidity: Finance in motion or evaporation”, lecture by Michael Mainelli at Gresham College, 5 September 2007 (available for download as an audio or video file, as well as a text file)

The role of time-critical liquidity in financial markets by David Marshall and Robert Steigerwald (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

Financial market utilities and the challenge of just-in-time liquidity

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What You Should Know Before Investing In Fidelity’s Bitcoin Retirement Accounts

This morning crypto advocates and the crypto curious alike woke up to the news that asset management giant Fidelity will start allowing investors to put bitcoin into their 401(k) retirement savings accounts. On its surface this looks like an easy way for individuals to get access to this emerging asset class in an advantageous way from a tax perspective. However, there are still some important considerations to take into account.

Here is what you need to know.

The service will be available later this year to participants in employee-sponsored retirement plans offered by Fidelity—but only if an employer opts to offer it. Annual gains in a 401(k) are tax deferred, which eliminates the hassles associated with crypto investing and annual tax reporting. Withdrawals from a 401(k) in retirement are either taxed as ordinary income (if you contributed to a traditional pre-tax account) or tax-free (if you put after tax dollars into a Roth account).

According to The Wall Street Journal fees on these investments will range between 0.75%-0.90%, plus trading fees which falls within the mid-range of spot market trading fees offered by most major exchanges in the U.S. such as Coinbase, Gemini, Kraken, FTX.US, and Binance.US. Additionally, for now, employees will only be able to allocate a maximum of 20% of their currently account balances and new contributions to bitcoin.

The service is going to be slowly rolled out over the course of 2022. Currently the only firm to have publicly signed on is business analytics firm MicroStrategy. Led by billionaire bitcoin bull Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy is the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin with a treasury topping $5 billion worth of the asset. And again, your employer will have to agree to offer the service. Some may balk at the asset’s volatility.

Back in 2013 you could purchase a single bitcoin for under $300. As of this writing, a whole bitcoin will run you approximately $40,000. This is gargantuan growth, but it has not been smooth.

There have been multiple occasions where bitcoin and other leading crypto assets have lost well north of 50% of their value (many of which happened before the industry broke into the mainstream consciousness). However, many investors likely remember bitcoin approaching $20,000 in late 2017 before losing 75% of its value in the subsequent months.

We saw another such drop during the late fall when bitcoin fell from $69,000 to the low $30,000s. Bitcoiners will tell you that the asset more than recovers each time that it gets knocked down. In fact, many consider riding these boom and bust cycles as a rite of passage. But it might not be for everyone.

While there may have been cheering throughout #cryptotwitter that Fidelity is letting clients dip their toes in bitcoin, the government may not be as happy. For starters, federal regulators have been very reticent at letting investors get easy exposure to the crypto spot markets, even bitcoin.

Famously, the Securities and Exchange Commission is yet to approve a bitcoin spot ETF (it has approved a handful of products that offer exposure to bitcoin futures contracts), often citing the market’s vulnerability to fraud and manipulation.

When it comes to retirement planning, volatility again comes into play. Bitcoin is down nearly 40% from its all-time high of just under $70,000 last November, and retirees and those soon to retire may not have the funds or time to ride out these boom and bust cycles. In fact, last month the Department of Labor issued a notice expressing several concerns with investing retirement funds in crypto.

Chief among them were the market’s extreme volatility, its emerging (cloudy) regulatory status, the inability of investors to make informed decisions, as well as more basic concerns about the security of holding crypto assets, which have become juicy targets for hackers. Labor’s concerns matter because it has a say in the regulation of employer sponsored plans.

In addition, when news came out last July that Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the U.S., had partnered with a retirement firm to offer such services, David John, a senior policy advisor at AARP Policy Institute and the deputy director of the retirement security project at the Brookings Institution, told Forbes: “Crypto itself is fascinating, and intriguing as it starts to develop, but it’s still in its early phases.

And it is definitely not appropriate for retirement investing.” Added John: “The fact is that for retirement investing, you want growth, and you want a limited amount of volatility. The older you get, the less you want your portfolio to gyrate up and down, because it makes it very hard to plan your retirement income.”

While Fidelity is a world unto itself when it comes to asset management and retirement savings, there are other ways to get your retirement savings access to crypto. Firms such as Kingdom Trust, iTrust Capital and BitcoinIRA let investors purchase digital assets via exchanges and hold them in individual retirement accounts.

Additionally, Coinbase partnered with ForUsAll in June to let participants in employer sponsored plans purchase dozens of different crypto assets and hold them in tax deferred programs.

Finally, if you want exposure to the industry but don’t want to directly hold digital assets, there are plenty of stocks and ETFs that track companies operating in the crypto industry that are highly correlated to the underlying assets.

Saving for retirement is a personal decision, and your strategy – from what to hold to allocation percentages must —depend on your specific circumstances. Please seek out a Registered Investment Advisor or other professional advice before making any big decisions.

I am director of research for digital assets at Forbes. I was recently the Social Media/Copy Lead at Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange based in the United States.

Source: What You Should Know Before Investing In Fidelity’s Bitcoin Retirement Accounts

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