Could a Stronger Euro Bring Relief To Global Markets

This is generally regarded as the global “risk-free” rate. It’s not too much of an exaggeration to say that every other asset in the world is priced with reference to this slab of US government debt. But a close runner up is the US dollar.

A strong US dollar sucks money out of risk assets

The US dollar is one of the most important prices in the world. It’s the global reserve currency – everyone needs US dollars. As a result, when the price of US dollars goes up, you can view it as monetary policy getting tighter around the world (that’s an oversimplification, but it’s quite a useful one).

This is at least one reason markets have struggled in recent months; the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, has been ahead of other economies in terms of raising interest rates, while the US economy has also looked relatively resilient. The US dollar is also a “safe haven” asset, which means that it benefits when investors are feeling jittery.

As a result of all this, the dollar has shot up in value against other major currencies. And risk assets don’t like that one tiny bit. As my colleague Dominic pointed out earlier this month, “if the US dollar keeps rising from here, it’s going to hurt”.

The good news is that after a burst higher, the dollar is now a little lower than it was when Dominic wrote that piece. One key reason for that is the European Central Bank (ECB) – we’ll explain why in a minute. First, what’s the ECB done?

Well, yesterday, ECB chief Christine Lagarde came out with a blog post in which she – unusually for a central banker – was really quite clear about what the central bank will be doing over the next couple of quarters.

To summarise, she said that the ECB will stop printing money soon, it will start raising interest rates in July, and by the start of October rates will be back to 0% (ie, out of negative territory).

That’s quite an emphatic change for the ECB. As Marcus Ashworth says on Bloomberg, “I struggle to recall any central banker, certainly not one from the ECB, ever having been this definitive about the monetary policy outlook.”

There are probably two reasons for it. One is that the ECB has been lagging somewhat. Inflation has taken off in the eurozone too, but unlike the US, the economy has looked weaker so it’s been a tougher juggling act. But now it looks as though the hawks (for want of a better word) have won.

The second reason is that the euro was threatening to hit parity with the US dollar. In pure market terms, parity is just another number, no more or less significant than 1.01 or 0.99. But of course, it’s not actually just another number; it’s a big scary round number and one that grabs headlines. It’s probably best avoided if possible.

Part of a central bank’s role is to act as the guardian of the currency. That’s even more important in the eurozone than elsewhere because the euro is young and the lack of full political union between all of its member countries means there are still serious fault lines that could threaten its existence.

This risk has retreated greatly. During the sovereign bond crisis of the 2010s, the ECB, under Mario Draghi, effectively won the right to print money to suppress national bond yields – and thus underwrite the solvency of individual eurozone nations – where necessary.

But it’s better not to get to the point where markets decide to test your resolve on that front.

Why a stronger euro might be good news for markets

So why is this good news from a strong dollar front? Because the euro is the “other” global reserve currency. It’s miles behind the dollar in terms of being stockpiled by central banks around the world, but it is the biggest component in the “DXY” index which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of rival currencies. It is probably the most widely-watched barometer of dollar strength.

As a result, when the euro bounces against the dollar, DXY tends to fall. And what with this being quite a hawkish turn for the ECB, the euro rallied from falling as low as $1.03-ish last Friday, to heading above $1.07 now.

Meanwhile, on top of that, it helped that one of the monetary policy setters at the Fed – Raphael Bostic, the head of the Federal Reserve bank of Atlanta – said that it might make sense for the Fed to pause for breath in September on interest-rate rises.

That’s hardly a wildly dovish statement (it implies half-point increases in both June and July), but with the market currently sweating that Fed boss Jerome Powell hopes to inherit the mantle of inflation destroyer from Paul Volcker, any sign that the central bank might relent is welcome to investors.

A weaker dollar would be good news for investors, as it implies that the rush for safe havens will ease and investors will start seeking risk again.

That doesn’t mean it’ll happen. However, one feasible scenario in which this might continue is one in which inflation ebbs (even while remaining high) and other central bank policies start to converge with that of the Fed.

That’s certainly possible over the coming months. Does that mean you should be piling in as if everything is back to the tech bubble days? Not at all; the environment has changed and the winners over the next phase will differ from those of the last. But it does imply that the “crash-y” behaviour we’ve seen since the start of this year might be due a breather. Fingers crossed.

By: John Stepek

Source: Could a stronger euro bring relief to global markets? | MoneyWeek

Further reading:

Bybit Boosts Crypto Trading Capabilities with MetaTrader4

Cryptocurrency believers can look forward to even better trading as Bybit, one of the world’s fastest-growing crypto exchanges, completes its highly anticipated MetaTrader 4 (MT4) integration. With this upgrade, Bybit is bringing its users the advanced technical analysis, flexible trading system, and algorithmic trading tools that mark MT4 out as the current gold standard for forex (FX) and contract for differences (CFD) trading.

Developed by MetaQuotes, MT4’s functionalities on Bybit are available to all users. The platform enables 24/7 trades of USDT perpetual contracts — all with Bybit’s low spreads and deep liquidity. Bybit users can also activate Expert Advisors for an automated trading experience that allows them to integrate their trading scripts from other providers offering MT4. Equipped with MT4’s widely popular and trusted functionalities, Bybit’s innovative, streamlined platform makes trading even more intuitive than ever before.

Faster, Simpler, Smarter

With the MT4 integration, Bybit users have top trading and analytical technologies at their fingertips and can implement trading strategies with ease. Users on Bybit MT4 will be trading off Bybit’s order book and liquidity prices, facilitating direct peer-to-peer buy/sell transactions with minimal slippage granted by the platform’s deep liquidity.

For an enhanced trading experience, MT4 also comes with informative technical indicators and algorithmic trading tools. Key features include the ability to automatically copy deals of other traders, as well as various support functions for users at all stages of their trading journey.

In addition, MT4 has a range of customizable layouts, complete with an intuitive interface and interactive charts that make planning and managing trades a breeze. Whether for longtime crypto believers or the newly crypto curious, Bybit’s MT4 integration delivers advanced trading features along with a hassle-free user experience.

A World-Class Platform

Since it was founded in 2018, Bybit has rapidly made a name for itself as a provider of innovative online spot and derivatives trading services, mining and staking products, an NFT marketplace as well as API support to both retail and institutional clients around the globe. Bybit has emerged as a next-level exchange for digital assets thanks to a smart and robust system that underlines speed, security, transparency, and market depth.

Liquidity is arguably the be-all and end-all of asset exchanges, and this is a leading quality of Bybit’s derivatives trading platform. With abundant liquidity and the tightest spread, Bybit guarantees that traders have the best quote and execution on the market even during periods of extreme volatility.

What’s more, with a 99.99% up rate, Bybit has proven to be the most reliable, stable, and usable crypto exchange of the bull run. The platform had no overload or downtime throughout the year — a unique attribute among major exchanges.

With a whole host of retail-focused products and customer-centric services (including multilingual support), Bybit’s platform is designed to help lower the entry threshold to digital assets trading, inviting people around the world to enjoy easy and immediate delivery of crypto transactions. With MT4, Bybit is furthering its mission to become a fully integrated trading powerhouse with a stellar, user-friendly interface.

“As one of the most advanced and convenient trading solutions, MT4 is an excellent tool for our users to elevate their trading experience,” said Ben Zhou, co-founder and CEO of Bybit. “We are excited to bring our products and services to the next level with this integration with MT4, and we look forward to our users benefiting from its functionalities and navigating the rise of digital assets with us.”

Source: Bybit Crypto Trading Capabilities MetaTrader4

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Cryptocurrencies are Crashing So How Low Will Bitcoin Go

With bitcoin crashing – in fact, the entire cryptocurrency sector crashing – I thought I should quickly cover it today. Needless to say, it’s not pretty. At all.

Faith in cryptocurrencies has been battered – in most cases, quite rightly

This time last year, bitcoin went on one its monster runs above $60,000. It then had one of its monster crashes. I can’t remember if it was on these pages or on Twitter, but somewhere I suggested that a reasonable target for the correction might be $20,000.

$20,000 was the old high from the 2017 boom and bust and an obvious pivotal price point. But the correction stopped at $30,000, or just below.The conclusion I drew – and on current evidence wrongly drew – was that, as bitcoin matured, its volatility was declining. The 90% corrections of previous bull markets were now 50%-60% corrections.

Bitcoin had a second run above $60,000 in the autumn, followed by another of its humongous corrections, and lo and behold, $30,000 held again (actually just below, but I use round numbers as they are more readable).

As an asset, bitcoin has become highly correlated to the Nasdaq and tech stocks and, as we all know, tech stocks have been walloped. Peloton, for example, which we wrote about yesterday, is down over 90%.So over the past fortnight, I was quite encouraged to see bitcoin holding up quite well relative to other tech stocks. $30,000 looked like it was a floor.

Then we got the collapse in the protocol Terra, and its so-called stablecoin UST, which John covered earlier in the week, and the sector has been absolutely battered.This is big, and it’s going to take some recovering from. The bubble of 2016 was verging-on the-fraudulent ICOs. Today it’s staking and stable coins. The yields on staking – over 20% in some cases – were unsustainable and so they have not been sustained. (If you’re baffled as to what I’m talking about here, don’t worry, you haven’t missed out and at this stage it’s very much for the best).

Hundreds of thousands of people have lost money, in some cases fortunes, and the reputational damage to crypto is considerable. All those who declared that “crypto is a fraud” are now looking wise, while those, myself to an extent included, who made the argument that bitcoin is a hedge against currency debasement are looking stupid, given that it is off some 65% from its highs.

Bitcoin will survive (again) but it’s likely to hit $20,000 and could go even lower

Of course, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are not one and the same. Bitcoin remains a product of technical and open-source genius, but forever in its wake, and surrounding it, are disasters, gaffes, frauds and scams.Altcoins, NFTs, the Metaverse, Defi, staking, whatever the latest buzz thing is – all of it is puking value, and the bubble has well and truly burst. Again.

And there lies the keyword – again. This is not the first time this has happened, and it will not be the last. And, for all the junk that surrounds it, bitcoin keeps plodding on. As I write it sits at $27,500. I can’t see how it doesn’t retest $20,000 in the coming days.

We hope $20,000 holds, but these are horrible, horrible, horrible markets – and I’m not just talking about crypto. It was oil going bananas in 2008, rising to $150 a barrel, which triggered that collapse. It seems like something not too dissimilar is happening now, following oil’s spike to $130 last month.

There will be a lot of forced sellers out there – leveraged players (those using borrowed money) and so on. So we are going to see a lot of liquidation. My advice, if you own quality assets, and you don’t have to sell, is not to.

Gold, bitcoin, good companies – whatever. Their price may go lower, but if you are not confident you can beat the market, then don’t sell. Because just as bubbles always burst, so does quality always come good. And bitcoin itself – I’m not talking about other cryptocurrenciesbitcoin itself is a quality asset.

There’s even a chance it could go back to its corona-panic lows of March 2020. Heck, everything else seems to be going that way. That would take us to $3,000. I would have thought that unlikely, but never say never, especially in these markets. If you think you can beat the market, as I say, go for it. If not, HODL quality. Don’t trade it.

By: Dominic Frisby

Source: Cryptocurrencies are crashing – so how low will bitcoin go? | MoneyWeek

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A New Idea To Reduce Wealth Inequality: Tax Capital Gains At Death At A Higher Rate Than During Life

Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) have proposed different ways to tax unrealized capital gains every year. Their shared goal is understandable, with trillions of dollars escaping income tax under current law. But each plan raises serious administrative and legal problems. My colleague, Rob McClelland, and I suggest a simpler, more effective approach: Tax unrealized gains of the wealthy at death at a higher rate than if assets are sold or given as gifts during life.

An unrealized gain is the increase in the value of an asset, like stock, which has not yet been sold. Taxing these gains is important because unrealized gains now account for more than half of the staggering amount of wealth of the very richest Americans, those with at least $100 million of net worth.

Current law encourages the wealthy to hold their assets until death, when those gains escape income tax permanently. This happens for two reasons. First, current law does not treat a bequest as a sale so no income tax is due at death. And, second, heirs are allowed a “stepped-up basis” where they never pay tax on any increase in the value of property during a decedent’s lifetime.

The results: Government loses a massive amount of revenue, wealth inequality is perpetuated through generations, and investors are encouraged to retain (or “lock-in”) poorly balanced, and less productive, portfolios. More than fifty years ago, two leading tax experts described the failure to tax gains of property transferred at death as “the most serious defect in our federal tax system.”

To fix this longstanding flaw, our plan would tax unrealized gains at death for the very rich (couples with more than $100 million and singles with more than $50 million) at the tax rate for ordinary income—currently 37 percent. But profits from sales or gifts of assets during life would still be taxed at 23.8 percent. Transfers to spouses would be tax exempt. And the very rich would be allowed to deduct their income taxes at death from their estate taxes.

Our proposal turns the existing incentive for appreciated assets on its head. Instead of encouraging people to hold their appreciated assets until death to avoid income taxes, our proposal encourages them to sell these assets before they die.

For example, imagine an entrepreneur who owns $100 billion of his company stock, for which he paid nothing when he founded the firm. Under our proposal, if he holds his stock until death, he’d owe $37 billion in income tax. But if he sells during life, he would owe $23.8 billion. And, if he wants to transfer his stock to his children without paying the $37 billion, he could give his stock to them during his life and pay $23.8 billion.

To determine the reach of our proposal, Rob reviewed data from the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finances, which he combined with Forbes 400 information (which is excluded from the survey). He estimated that taxpayers subject to our proposal have unrealized gains totaling about $7.5 trillion in 2022.

If these households realize $6 trillion of their $7.5 trillion of that gain during their lifetimes, and the remaining $1.5 trillion at death, our proposal would raise almost $2 trillion over time. Over the next 10 years alone, our plan could raise several hundred billion dollars, just like Biden’s and Wyden’s plan. (Our plan could raise more than theirs eventually, as our tax rate at death is higher than Biden’s and Wyden’s.)

For simplicity, we assumed the unrealized gains don’t grow over time, which likely makes our estimates conservative.

Taxing the wealthiest households on their unrealized gains at death is much easier to administer than Biden’s or Wyden’s plans to tax them annually. Our plan would rely on existing estate tax returns, and valuations, which the rich already file, while Biden’s and Wyden’s plans would require new annual filings for taxpayers during their lifetimes.

While few taxpayers would pay Biden’s or Wyden’s tax, many more would need to value all their assets annually, as taxpayers close to the line might move in and out of the regimes over time. How would the IRS determine whether all these taxpayers filed properly?

Finally, our proposal to collect taxes on transfers by gift or bequests is well -established under the US Constitution, but collecting taxes outside of transfers during their lifetimes raises unresolved legal issues.

Today, older, wealthier taxpayers often hang on to appreciated assets during their lifetimes, waiting to transfer them at death. Our plan encourages them to realize gains during life, which could lead to better balanced portfolios, broaden ownership of these assets, and generate much-needed tax revenue.

I am a Senior Fellow in the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. I research, speak, and write on a range of federal income tax issues, with a focus on business

Source: A New Idea To Reduce Wealth Inequality: Tax Capital Gains At Death At A Higher Rate Than During Life

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Where Do Millionaires Keep Their Money?

Where do millionaires keep their money? High net worth individuals put money into different classifications of financial and real assets, including stocks, mutual funds, retirement accounts and real estate. Most of the 20.27 million millionaires in the U.S. did not inherit their money; only about 20% inherited their money. More than two-thirds of all millionaires are entrepreneurs. Here are some of the places the genuinely rich keep their money.

Cash and Cash Equivalents

Many, and perhaps most, millionaires are frugal. If they spent their money, they would not have any to increase wealth. They spend on necessities and some luxuries, but they save and expect their entire families to do the same. Many millionaires keep a lot of their money in cash or highly liquid cash equivalents.

They establish an emergency account before ever starting to invest. Millionaires bank differently than the rest of us. Any bank accounts they have are handled by a private banker who probably also manages their wealth. There is no standing in line at the teller’s window.

Studies indicate that millionaires may have, on average, as much as 25% of their money in cash. This is to offset any market downturns and to have cash available as insurance for their portfolio. Cash equivalents, financial instruments that are almost as liquid as cash. are popular investments for millionaires. Examples of cash equivalents are money market mutual funds, certificates of deposit, commercial paper and Treasury bills.

Some millionaires keep their cash in Treasury bills that they keep rolling over and reinvesting. They liquidate them when they need the cash. Treasury bills are short-term notes issued by the U.S government to raise money. Treasury bills are usually purchased at a discount. When you sell them, the difference between the face value and selling price is your profit. Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, has a portfolio full of money market accounts and Treasury bills.

Millionaires also have zero-balance accounts with private banks. They leave their money in cash and cash equivalents and they write checks on their zero-balance account. At the end of the business day, the private bank, as custodian of their various accounts, sells off enough liquid assets to settle up for that day. Millionaires don’t worry about FDIC insurance. Their money is held in their name and not the name of the custodial private bank.

Other millionaires have safe deposit boxes full of cash denominated in many different currencies. These safe deposit boxes are located all over the world and each currency is held in a country where transactions are conducted using that currency.

Real Estate

For more than 200 years, investing in real estate has been the most popular investment for millionaires to keep their money. During all these years, real estate investments have been the primary way millionaires have had of making and keeping their wealth. The trend started with buying a primary home and then other residences, usually for tenants. After buying some personal real estate, then they have started buying commercial real estate like office buildings, hotels, stadiums, bridges and more.

Millionaires often have large real estate portfolios. Once they have established themselves as a buyer in the real estate market, real estate agents start bringing them deals and they find it easy to obtain financing. Large investors have many millions tied up in real estate. Real estate is not an investment to depend on for cash, but it is a lucrative investment in the long run and a tried and true investment for millionaires because they like passive income and find that real estate provides it.

Stocks and Stock Funds

Some millionaires are all about simplicity. They invest in index funds and dividend-paying stocks. They like the passive income from equity securities just like they like the passive rental income that real estate provides. They simply don’t want to use their time managing investments.

Ultra-rich investors may hold a controlling interest in one or more major companies. But, many millionaires hold a portfolio of only a few equity securities. Many may hold index funds since they earn decent returns and you don’t have to spend time managing them. They also have low management fees and excellent diversification.

Millionaires also like dividend-paying stocks for the passive income they provide. Of course, they are also interested in capital appreciation but, for some, that’s less of a concern than generating current income.

Private Equity and Hedge Funds

Unless you are a multimillionaire, you may not participate in a hedge fund or buy into a private equity fund. Public equity is well known since its shares trade on stock exchanges. One of its advantages is its liquidity. You can readily liquidate your public equity or shares of stock. Private equity funds, on the other hand, generally gets their investments from large organizations like universities or pension funds.

Investors of private equity funds have to be accredited investors with a certain net worth, usually at least $250,000. Accredited investors can be individuals as well as organizations, but they are defined by regulations. In other areas, private equity funds do not have to conform to as many regulations as public equity does. Some of the ultra-rich, if they are accredited investors, do invest in private equity.

Hedge funds are not the same as private equity. Hedge funds use pooled funds and pursue several strategies to earn outsized returns for their investors. Hedge funds invest in whatever fund managers think will earn the highest short-term profits possible.

Commodities

Commodities, like gold, silver, mineral rights or cattle, to name a few, are also stores of value for millionaires. But they require storage and have a level of complexity that many millionaires simply don’t want to deal with.

Alternative Investments

Some millionaires, along with the ultra-rich, keep a portion of their money in other alternative investments like such tangible assets as fine art, expensive musical instruments or rare books. Also, there are millionaires and the ultra-rich that have investments in intellectual property rights such as the rights to songs or movies. These can be very lucrative investments.

Cryptocurrency

It is estimated that there are around 100,000 cryptocurrency millionaires out there with the majority holding Bitcoin. To try to make your fortune in cryptocurrency, you have to be willing to take on some risk and many millionaires don’t have an appetite for risk.

You can take a small portion of a millionaire’s wealth and invest in one of the different cryptocurrencies. Plenty of people have become millionaires this way. Some have lost their money. More and more, cryptocurrency is becoming accepted as a legitimate investment that deserves a look when trying to accumulate wealth.

The Bottom Line

Millionaires have many different investment philosophies, so it’s difficult to generalize concerning where they keep their money. However, all of the above are legitimate investments for millionaires. They have a desire for a reduction of their risk, so many prefer diversified investment portfolios. More than one of these investments can be combined to try to enhance wealth.

Tips on Investing

Would you like to investigate how your investments are growing? Check out SmartAsset’s free investment calculator.

Do you have questions about how to start investing? It’s wise to begin by consulting a financial advisor. Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn’t have to be hard. SmartAsset’s free tool matches you with up to three financial advisors in your area, and you can interview your advisor matches at no cost to decide which one is right for you. If you’re ready to find an advisor who can help you achieve your financial goals

By:

Source: Where Do Millionaires Keep Their Money?

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