Corporate Taxes Poised to Rise After 136-Country Deal

 
1

Nearly 140 countries agreed Friday to the most sweeping overhaul of global tax rules in a century, a move that aims to curtail tax avoidance by multinational corporations and raise additional tax revenue of as much as $150 billion annually.

But the accord, which is a decade in the making, now must be implemented by the signatories, a path that is likely to be far from smooth, including in a closely divided U.S. Congress.

The reform sets out a global minimum corporate tax of 15%, targeted at preventing companies from exploiting low-tax jurisdictions.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the floor set by the global minimum tax was a victory for the U.S. and its ability to raise money from companies. She urged Congress to move swiftly to enact the international tax proposals it has been debating, which would help pay for extending the expanded child tax credit and climate-change initiatives, among other policies.

“International tax policy making is a complex issue, but the arcane language of today’s agreement belies how simple and sweeping the stakes are: when this deal is enacted, Americans will find the global economy a much easier place to land a job, earn a living, or scale a business,” Ms. Yellen said.

The agreement among 136 countries also seeks to address the challenges posed by companies, particularly technology giants, that register the intellectual property that drives their profits anywhere in the world. As a result, many of those countries established operations in low-tax countries such as Ireland to reduce their tax bills.

The final deal gained the backing of Ireland, Estonia and Hungary, three members of the European Union that withheld their support for a preliminary agreement in July. But Nigeria, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Pakistan continued to reject the deal.

The new agreement, if implemented, would divide existing tax revenues in a way that favors countries where customers are based. The biggest countries, as well as the low-tax jurisdictions, must implement the agreement in order for it to meaningfully reduce tax avoidance.

Overall, the OECD estimates the new rules could give governments around the world additional revenue of $150 billion annually.

The final deal is expected to receive the backing of leaders from the Group of 20 leading economies when they meet in Rome at the end of this month. Thereafter, the signatories will have to change their national laws and amend international treaties to put the overhaul into practice.

The signatories set 2023 as a target for implementation, which tax experts said was an ambitious goal. And while the agreement would likely survive the failure of a small economy to pass new laws, it would be greatly weakened if a large economy—such as the U.S.—were to fail.

“We are all relying on all the bigger countries being able to move at roughly the same pace together,” said Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe. “Were any big economy not to find itself in a position to implement the agreement,  that would matter for the other countries. But that might not become apparent for a while.”

 

Congress’ work on the deal will be divided into two phases. The first, this year, will be to change the minimum tax on U.S. companies’ foreign income that the U.S. approved in 2017. To comply with the agreement, Democrats intend to raise the rate—the House plan calls for 16.6%—and implement it on a country-by-country basis. Democrats can advance this on their own and they are trying to do so as part of President Biden’s broader policy agenda.

The second phase will be trickier, and the timing is less certain. That is where the U.S. would have to agree to the international deal changing the rules for where income is taxed. Many analysts say that would require a treaty, which would need a two-thirds vote in the Senate and thus some support from Republicans. Ms. Yellen has been more circumspect about the schedule and procedural details of the second phase.

Friction between European countries and the U.S. over the taxation of U.S. tech giants has threatened to trigger a trade war.

In long-running talks about new international tax rules, European officials have argued U.S. tech giants should pay more tax in Europe, and they fought for a system that would reallocate taxing rights on some digital products from countries where the product is produced to where it is consumed.

The U.S., however, resisted. A number of European governments introduced their own taxes on digital services. The U.S. then threatened to respond with new tariffs on imports from Europe.

The compromise was to reallocate taxing rights on all big companies that are above a certain profit threshold.

Under the agreement reached Friday, governments pledged not to introduce any new levies and said they would ultimately withdraw any that are in place. But the timetable for doing that has yet to be settled through bilateral discussions between the U.S. and those countries that have introduced the new levies.

Even though they will likely have to pay more tax after the overhaul, technology companies have long backed efforts to secure an international agreement, which they see as a way to avoid a chaotic network of national levies that threatened to tax the same profit multiple times.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

Do you agree with the global minimum tax on corporations? Why or why not? Join the conversation below.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which has been guiding the tax talks, estimates that some $125 billion in existing tax revenues would be divided among countries in a new way.

Those new rules would be applied to companies with global turnover of €20 billion (about $23 billion) or more, and with a profit margin of 10% or more. That group is likely to include around 100 companies. Governments have agreed to reallocate the taxing rights to a quarter of the profits of each of those companies above 10%.

The agreement announced Friday specifies that its revenue and profitability thresholds for reallocating taxing rights could also apply to a part of a larger company if that segment is reported in its financial accounts. Such a provision would apply to Amazon.com Inc.’s cloud division, Amazon Web Services, even though Amazon as a whole isn’t profitable enough to qualify because of its low-margin e-commerce business.

The other part of the agreement sets a minimum tax rate of 15% on the profits made by large companies. Smaller companies, with revenues of less than $750 million, are exempted because they don’t typically have international operations and can’t therefore take advantage of the loopholes that big multinational companies have benefited from.

Low-tax countries such as Ireland will see an overall decline in revenues. Developing countries are least happy with the final deal, having pushed for both a higher minimum tax rate and the reallocation of a greater share of the profits of the largest companies.

 
.
 
 
 
 

quintex-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1Related Contents:

 

 

 
 
 
 

Natural Gas Market Soars To Record Heights

European and UK gas prices surged Wednesday to record peaks, energised by fears of runaway demand in the upcoming northern hemisphere winter. Europe’s reference Dutch TTF gas price hit 162.12 euros per megawatt hour and UK prices leapt to 407.82 pence per therm in morning deals.

However, prices later erased gains to flatline in early afternoon trade. “It’s panic and fear with winter just around the corner,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch told AFP.

Soaring gas prices — coupled with oil which has struck multi-year highs — have fuelled fears over spiking inflation and rocketing domestic energy bills. Gas demand is also heightened in Asia, particularly from China, while key Russian exports are falling.

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Wednesday that Europe was to blame for the current energy crisis, after soaring gas prices spurred accusations that Moscow is withholding supplies to pressure the West.

“They’ve made mistakes,” Putin said in a televised meeting with Russian energy officials. He said that one of the factors influencing the prices was the termination of “long-term contracts” in favour of the spot market.

Some critics have accused Moscow of intentionally limiting gas supplies to Europe in an effort to hasten the launch of Nord Stream 2, a controversial pipeline connecting Russia with Germany.

At the same time, global gas stockpiles remain worryingly low.

“Natural gas prices have climbed to new peaks … as insufficient levels of inventories ahead of the winter season drive concerns for a spike in inflation and energy prices for consumers,” XTB analyst Walid Koudmani told AFP.

“These supply constraints could translate into higher costs of fuel moving into the winter months, a prospect which could further slow down economic recovery and worsen moods across markets.”

Europe’s energy crisis has also been exacerbated by a lack of wind for turbine sites, coupled with ongoing nuclear outages — and the winding down of coal mines by climate-conscious governments.

Gas demand has also galloped higher in recent months as economies reopened worldwide from their Covid-induced slumber. “The rebound in industrial activity across the world following months of Covid-related restrictions and widespread remote working … boosted demand for natural gas,” noted UniCredit economist Edoardo Campanella.

European gas futures have now multiplied by eight since April. And the market is set to shoot even higher, according to French bank Societe Generale. “Never before have power prices risen so far, so fast,” wrote Societe Generale analysts in a client note.

Shows evolution of the price of natural gas in Europe this past year to September 28 on the Dutch TTF Gas market Shows evolution of the price of natural gas in Europe this past year to September 28 on the Dutch TTF Gas market Photo: AFP / Patricio ARANA

“And we are only a few days into autumn — temperatures are still mild. “A cold winter could cause severe problems for Europe’s energy markets, where politicians are already trying to contain the fallout.”

European leaders are divided on how to respond to the record rise in energy prices, with France and Spain calling Wednesday for bold EU-wide action, while others urged patience. The European Commission — which is the European Union’s executive arm — will next week propose measures to mitigate the price surge for consumers.

Those suggestions will then be discussed by the bloc’s leaders at a summit in Brussels on October 21-22. Britain is particularly exposed to Europe’s energy crisis because of its reliance on natural gas to generate electricity.

By Roland Jackson

Source: Natural Gas Market Soars To Record Heights

.

Related Contents:

How And Why The Right Visuals Can Attract Attention To A Crisis

A picture, as the saying goes, is worth 1,000 words. And the right pictures have the potential to generate more attention and interest about crisis situations than words alone ever could.

People can immediately grasp a story or message that is being told by a picture, illustration, video or other visuals. And, given their increasingly shorter attention spans, many people often don’t want to read about a crisis when a picture or short video on social media or a television newscast is all they think they need.

Christen Costa, CEO of Gadget Review, noted that, “Study after study has shown that humans respond far better to visuals than text alone. You can tell your story in text and have it ignored, misinterpreted, or used against you. Images are harder for people to ignore or willfully misinterpret.  It’s important that the images you use are heavily vetted, however. You need to test them internally to be sure you’re saying exactly what you want to say.”

Challenges

The challenge for business leaders who are managing a crisis for their companies and organizations is to find the best visuals to help show or tell their side of the story in an appropriate and attention-getting way.

Of course, if you don’t provide visuals for a crisis, don’t be surprised when news organizations or people on social media find and post their own. And news outlets, of course, can find the visuals that best illustrates the crisis — but which you might prefer not be seen for whatever reason.

Coronavirus Crisis

Last Tuesday, ABC News reported that, “House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other lawmakers paid tribute to the more than 676,000 Americans who have died from Covid-19, [by] visiting a memorial on the National Mall that displays hundreds of thousands of small, white flags, one for each life lost.

“As we look at this work of art and see it fluttering in the breeze,” Pelosi said, “it really is an interpretation of the lives of these people waving to us to remember.” The lawmakers walked silently among the rows of flags, trails that stretch more than 3.8 miles, according to ABC News.

Climate Crisis

Earlier this week, motorists passing by the Tidal Basin in Washington, DC might have seen what appeared to be a submerged house near the Jefferson Memorial. According to Washingtonian.com, “Constructed out of wood and floating on pontoons, the hollow house was a warning from climate activists with Extinction Rebellion DC of what the city might face should unchecked climate change continue to contribute to rising sea levels.”

As is often the case with attention-getting visuals, more people likely saw news coverage or the YouTube video of the submerged “house” than saw the visual in-person.

Gun Violence

In 2018, to call attention to the number of children that were killed since the Sandy Hook school shooting, 7,000 pairs of empty shoes were displayed outside the U.S. Capitol.

CNN reported that, “The global advocacy group Avaaz [had] been collecting donated pairs of shoes for two weeks and early Tuesday morning lined them up one by one, 18 inches apart, in roughly 80 rows on the Capitol lawn, as Congress continues to sort through a debate over gun violence and school safety.

“Shoes are individual. They’re so personal. There are ballet slippers here and roller skates. These are kids,” said Nell Greenberg, the campaign director for Avaaz.”

‘The Power Of A Visual Image’

Baruch Labunski, CEO of marketing agency Rank Secure, said, “I’m a marketing expert, but you don’t have to be one to be one to understand the power of a visual image.

“When businesses are communicating with the public during a crisis, optics—both figurative and literal — are everything. Companies in crisis need to project a stable, consistent image that’s coherent with their brand. And in cases of transgressions or when a company is correcting a mistake, a visual image that reflects an amended ideology may be appropriate and effective,” he noted.

Advice For Business Leaders

“Here’s my cautionary advice,” Lubunski said. “Be authentic. Putting pictures of trees on a plastic water bottle doesn’t make your company environmentally friendly. Putting minorities on stage at an event while your entire C-suite is white doesn’t make you genuinely diverse.

“Make sure the visual images you choose reflect the actual values of your company. If you need to make amends, do it for real, rather than just for show,” he advised.

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Check out my website or some of my other work here.

I am a crisis management/communication expert, consultant, and author of the award-winning Crisis Ahead: 101 Ways to Prepare for and Bounce Back from Disasters, Scandals,

Source: How And Why The Right Visuals Can Attract Attention To A Crisis

.
Related Contents:

Transforming Blue Food Systems is a Win-Win For People and Planet

Can blue foods help protect the planet and meet the looming crisis of how to feed a fast-growing population? The United Nations, which has made foods from the water one of the key pillars at its special summit on Food Systems this week, thinks it can. But with a third of our oceans overfished, we must act now to harness its potential for future generations.

With the global population set to reach 10 billion by 2050 and hundreds of millions of people already undernourished, food from our oceans offers huge potential to alleviate hunger. This potential can only be unlocked, however, if governments work together to create sustainable and well-managed food systems.

The Blue Food Assessment (BFA) published last week provides one of the most comprehensive overviews to date of how blue foods can play a vital role in addressing the combined challenges of climate change, sustainable development and malnutrition.

One of its key papers found that fish, shellfish and algae have more nutritional benefits and sustainability gains than terrestrial animal-source foods. For example, compared to chicken, oysters and mussels have 76 times more vitamins B-12 and five times more iron. Blue foods also provide opportunities to reduce the environmental footprint of animal protein compared with land-based production.

However, as our ocean is already under immense pressure, and with the growth in demand for blue foods set to roughly double by 2050, sustainable management of ocean resources is crucial if the benefits of these aquatic food sources are to be reaped.

The urgency of this issue is spelled out in another of the scientific papers published as part of the BFA. The study, by some of the world’s leading food systems researchers, doesn’t pull its punches. Without the help of better policy and governance, it argues, shocks to small-scale fisheries and aquaculture could threaten the food and nutrition security of millions worldwide. Those in regions currently most vulnerable to food insecurity and the impact of climate change face the highest risks.

But this problem isn’t an unsolvable equation. We already know what works. We know, for instance, that tackling overfishing is a win-win for the planet and people. Fish stocks can recover and replenish if they are managed carefully, providing more people with the nutrients they need to live healthily. In fact, it is estimated that 16 million tonnes more in catch could be generated every year if all wild-capture fisheries used sustainable practices. The MSC’s own analysis, where I serve as chief executive, suggests that this would meet the protein needs of 72 million more people around the world every year.

Patagonian toothfishIcelandic cod and Cantabrian anchovy have all seen stocks rebound in recent years and just this month the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) announced that four commercial tuna species were recovering as a result of governments enforcing more sustainable fishing quotas and successfully combatting illegal fishing.

At a time when we need more success stories like this, many governments however are struggling to co-operate over fishery management measures that will ensure healthy fish stocks for future generations. Take the situation in the North East Atlantic, where some of the richest nations on the planet have consistently failed to find consensus on how to share quotas for herring, mackerel and blue whiting. As a result, catch quotas for these fisheries exceed the scientifically recommended limits needed to ensure their long-term sustainability, and these fisheries have consequently lost their certification to the MSC’s sustainability standard.

History shows us that taking more fish from the ocean than can be replenished, leads to stock collapse and, ultimately, impacts negatively on those fishing communities that rely on the sea for their livelihoods. Yet despite the mistakes of the past, this problem remains — the Mediterranean, for instance, remains the most overfished sea in the world. Despite the good news on some tuna species, many individual tuna stocks remain at risk and regional management authorities struggle to agree on international measures to manage those stocks sustainably for the long term.

Governments have a responsibility on behalf of the public to safeguard our oceans for current and future generations. As climate change, population growth and overfishing are converging to create a perfect storm that threatens the future health of our aquatic resources, and the billions of people that depend on them, it’s time for a revitalized global approach to the management of our oceans’ riches. The world is looking to the UN Food Systems Summit as an opportunity for decision-makers to decide on a meaningful, coordinated and cooperative change. Let’s hope they deliver.

By:

Source: Transforming blue food systems is a win-win for people and planet | TheHill

.

Related Contents:

Europe Faces Bleak Winter Energy Crisis Years in the Making

 
Europe is preparing for an extreme winter as an energy emergency that has been a very long time in the making leaves the landmass depending on the ideas of the weather.Faced with flooding gas and power costs, nations from the U.K. to Germany should rely on gentle temperatures to traverse the warming season. Europe is shy of gas and coal and if the breeze doesn’t blow, the most dire outcome imaginable could work out: far and wide power outages that power organizations and plants to shut.

The extraordinary energy crunch has been fermenting for quite a long time, with Europe developing progressively reliant upon discontinuous wellsprings of energy like breeze and sun based while interests in petroleum products declined. Natural strategy has likewise pushed a few nations to close their coal and atomic armadas, decreasing the quantity of force establishes that could fill in as back-up in the midst of shortages.

“It could get very ugly unless we act quickly to try to fill every inch of storage,” said Marco Alvera, CEO of Italian energy framework organization Snam SpA. “You can survive a week without electricity, but you can’t survive without gas.”

Energy request is ascending from the U.S. to Europe and Asia as economies recuperate from the worldwide pandemic, boosting modern movement and powering worries about swelling. Costs are so high in Europe that two significant compost makers reported they were closing plants or shortening creation in the region.

And it’s not simply organizations. Governments are additionally worried about the hit to families previously battling with greater expenses of everything from food to move. As force and gas costs break records for a long time, Spain, Italy, Greece and France are largely stepping in to shield shoppers from inflation.

“It will be expensive for consumers, it will be expensive for big energy users,” Dermot Nolan, a previous CEO of U.K. energy controller Of gem, said in a Bloomberg TV meet. “Electricity and gas prices are going to be higher at home than everybody would want and they are going to be higher than they have been for about 12 years.”

Europe’s gas costs have dramatically multiplied for the current year as top provider Russia has been checking the extra conveyances the landmass needs to top off its exhausted stockpiling locales following a virus winter last year. It’s been difficult to get hold of elective supplies, with North Sea fields going through weighty support after pandemic-instigated postponements, and Asia gathering up cargoes of condensed gaseous petrol to fulfill rising need there.

Higher gas costs helped the expense of creating power as renewables wavered. Low wind speeds constrained European utilities to consume costly coal, draining stores of the dirtiest of petroleum products. Energy strategy additionally assumed a part, with the expense of contaminating in the European Union flooding over 80% this year.

“Gas supply is short, coal supply is short and renewables aren’t going great, so we are now in this crazy situation,” said Dale Hazelton, head of warm coal at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “Coal companies just don’t have supply available, they can’t get the equipment, the manufacturers are backed up and they don’t really want to invest.”

European gas inventories are at their most minimal level in over 10 years for this season. Gazprom PJSC’s CEO Alexey Miller said Europe will enter the colder time of year in with regards to a month without completely renewing its support reserves. The Russian gas monster has been pushing to begin its questionable Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Europe now needs great climate. While forecasters say temperatures are probably not going to plunge beneath typical one month from now, assumptions can generally change. Comparable climate gauges didn’t appear last year, bringing about an unpleasant temperatures that sent LNG costs in Asia to a record in January.

“It may happen again,” said Ogan Kose, an overseeing chief at Accenture. “If we end up having a very cold winter in Asia as well as in Europe, then we may end up seeing a ridiculous spike in gas prices.”

In 2018, a profound freeze that became known as the Beast from the East shocked energy brokers. This year there’s additionally a possibility that a La Nina climate example would grow once more. While the wonder can carry warm climate to Europe, it will in general send temperatures diving in Asia.

The U.S. Environment Prediction Center said there’s a 66% possibility that a La Nina example will return some time from November to January. That could fuel the battle for LNG cargoes, as purchasers from Japan to India start alarm purchasing because of fears of rivalry with Europe.

“Unfortunately, the way the weather works, when it’s cold, it is cold: it’s cold for the U.S., it’s cold for Europe and then it gets cold for Asia,” said Snam’s Alvera, who is wagering on hydrogen as the future for efficient power energy markets.

Europe should diminish request if the colder time of year is cold, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said, anticipating the district will confront power outages. There are as of now indications of stress, with CF Industries Holdings Inc. closing two compost plants in the U.K. furthermore, Yara International ASA will have diminished its smelling salts creation limit by 40% by next week.

Shutdowns additionally hazard hitting the food store network, which utilizes a side-effect of compost creation in everything from meat handling to brew. The sugar and starch businesses are likewise influenced, with France’s Tereos SCA and Roquette Freres SA cautioning of higher energy costs.

And it doesn’t stop there. Europe top copper maker Aurubis AG said greater costs will keep on getting edges through the remainder of the year. Indeed, even synthetic compounds goliath BASF SE, which delivers the greater part of its force, said it has been not able to completely turn the effect of record-breaking power prices.

Supplies are probably not going to improve altogether any time soon. Russia is confronting its very own energy smash and Gazprom is guiding its extra creation to homegrown inventories. Costs could remain high regardless of whether Europe winds up with a gentle winter, said Fabian Ronningen, an expert at energy specialist Rystad Energy AS.

“With natural gas prices already hitting record highs in Europe ahead of rising winter demand, prices could move even higher in the coming months,” said Stacey Morris, overseer of exploration at file supplier Alerian in Dallas. “There is a potential it can get worse.”

Source: Europe Faces Bleak Winter Energy Crisis Years in the Making – Bloomberg

.

Related Contents:

Behind Oil Price Rise: Peak Oil or Wall Street Speculation

The humanitarian impact of Gaza’s electricity and fuel crisis

Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks

Bloomberg New Energy Finance, UNEP SEFI, Frankfurt School, Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment

Essay on Energy Crisis

Musharraf for emergency measures to overcome energy crisis

Pakistan’s PM announces energy policy to tackle crisis

Energy crisis upsets platinum market

Coal shortage has China living on the edge

China’s Guangdong faces severe power shortage

TABLE-China power shortage forecasts by region

Worldwide energy shortages

Long-term interest rate statistics for EU Member States

Understanding the Political Economy of the Eurozone Crisis

It’s All Connected: A Spectators Guide to the Euro Crisis

EU leaders reach a deal to tackle debt crisis

Greece debt crisis: Markets dive on Greek referendum

Banks Retrench in Europe While Keeping Up Appearances” (limited no-charge access

Media Coverage of the 2010 Greek Debt Crisis: Inaccuracies and Evidence of Manipulation

Swiss Pledge Unlimited Currency Purchases

Crisis in Euro-zone—Next Phase of Global Economic Turmoil

Cuts to Debt Rating Stir Anxiety in Europe

Seasonally adjusted youth unemployment rate

The Political Economy of the Greek Debt Crisis: A Tale of Two Bailouts – Special Paper No. 25

A NASA Scientist Explains Why The Weather is Becoming More Extreme

Across China and Western Europe in July, the amount of rain that might typically fall over several months to a year came down within a matter of days, triggering floods that swept entire homes off their foundations. In June, the usually mild regions of Southwest Canada and the US’s Pacific Northwest saw temperatures that rivaled highs in California’s Death Valley desert. The severe heat was enough to buckle roads and melt power cables.

Yesterday, a landmark United Nations report helped put those kinds of extreme events into context. By burning fossil fuels and releasing planet-heating greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, humans are fueling more dangerous weather. Researchers have been able to connect the dots between greenhouse gas emissions and climate change for decades.

But the new report showcases a big leap forward in climate science: being able to tie the climate crisis directly to extreme weather events like the June heatwave, which would have been “virtually impossible” without climate change according to recent studies.

The Verge spoke with Alex Ruane, one of the authors of the new report and a research physical scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. He walks us through the phenomena that’s supercharging extreme weather events. And he explains why scientists have gotten so much better at seeing the “human footprint” in each weather disaster.

This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

The new United Nations report ties many changes in extreme weather to a more intense water cycle. What is the water cycle and how does it affect the weather?

The water cycle is basically the way that we track moisture moving through the climate system. So it includes everything from the oceans to the atmosphere, the clouds, ice, rivers, lakes, the groundwater, and the way that those things move and transfer moisture and water from place to place.

So when we’re talking about the intensification of the water cycle, we’re basically saying things are moving faster. Air is pulling the moisture out of the oceans and out of the land faster. It’s moving more moisture from place to place on the planet. And when it rains, it can come down hard.

The fundamental difference is that there is more energy in the system. There’s more heat. And as the temperature goes up, there is an overall increase in the amount of moisture that the air is trying to hold. So that means when a storm happens, there’s more moisture in the air to tap into for a big, heavy downpour.

It also means that when air moves over a region, it has the potential to suck more moisture out of the ground more rapidly. So the same phenomenon is leading both to more intensive rainfalls and floods and precipitation, and also to more stark drought conditions when they do occur.

How are people affected by those changes?

So, I personally live in New York City. We are affected by the water cycle, for example, when there’s a heavy downpour it can flood subway stations. It can lead to surface flooding in rivers and streets that can affect transportation.

Other parts of the world have different engagements with the water cycle. They may be concerned about the snow fall or river floods that affect broad areas. And then of course huge parts of the world are concerned about drought. When we look at something like drought, it doesn’t just affect agriculture. It also affects ecosystems and urban parks. It affects water resources and infrastructure like power plants and roads and buildings.

So in all of these climate factors, we see that more than one sector is affected by these changes. We also see that if you take any specific thing that we care about, like agricultural fields, they are affected by more than just one type of climate change.

A specific set of climate conditions can lead to two extremes at the same time. So for example, heat and drought often go together because as conditions become drier, all of that sunshine, all of that energy, all of that heat goes into warming the air. That is a reinforcing cycle that can make hot and dry conditions even more extreme.

The big picture, as we’re seeing it, is that climate change is affecting all of the regions on Earth, with multiple types of climate changes already observed. And as the climate changes further, these shifts become more pronounced and widespread.

I’ve read that “weather whiplash” is becoming more common because of climate change — what is “weather whiplash”?

This idea that you can go from extreme to extreme very rapidly is giving society this sensation of a whiplash. This is part of the idea of an intensified water cycle. The water is moving faster, so when a wet condition comes it can be extremely wet. And then behind it could be a dry condition that can quickly get extremely dry.

That type of shift from wet to dry conditions is something that we explore and understand in our climate models, but the lived experience of it can be quite jarring — and not just uncomfortable, but a direct challenge for ecosystems and other things that we care about in society. They really are connected in many cases to the same types of phenomenon, and this new report connects the dots between this phenomenon and our human footprint.

How do scientists study how climate change affects extreme weather events?

There have been big steps forward in the methodologies and the scientific rigor of detection and attribution studies, which is another way of saying: understanding the human influence on these events.

The basic idea behind the extreme event attribution is that we need to compare the likelihood that an event would have happened without human influences against the likelihood of that event happening, given that we have influenced the climate.

We are able to use observational records and our models to look at what conditions were like before there was strong human influence. We look at what we call a preindustrial condition, before the Industrial Revolution and land use changes led to greenhouse gas emissions and other climate changes.

If we can understand how likely events would have been before we had our climate influences, and then compare it against the likelihoods today with those climate change influences factored in, that allows us to identify the increased chance of those events because of our influence. It allows us to attribute a human component of those extreme events.

How have researchers gotten so much better at attributing extreme weather events to climate change?

This is a really exciting, cutting-edge field right now. Methodological advances and several groups that have really taken this on as a major focus of their efforts have, in many ways, increased our ability and the speed at which we can make these types of connections. So that’s a big advantage.

Every year, the computational power is stronger in terms of what our models can do. We also use remote sensing to have a better set of observations in parts of the world where we don’t have weather stations. And we have models that are designed to integrate multiple types of observations into the same kind of physically coherent system, so that we can understand and fill in the gaps between those observations.

The other thing, of course, is when you look at any single attribution study, you get a piece of the picture. But what the new report does is bring them all into one place and assesses them together, and draw out larger messages. When you look at them all together, it is a much stronger and more compelling case than any one single event. And this is what the scientific community is showing us, that these things are part of a larger pattern of change that we have influenced.

What should we expect in the future when it comes to extreme weather? And what might we need to do to adapt?

First of all, it’s not like drought is a new phenomenon. There are parts of the world that are dealing with these conditions every day of the year. What we’re seeing, however, is that the overall set of expected conditions is moving into uncharted territory.

I want to emphasize it’s not just the record levels that we care about. We also care about the frequency by which these extremes occur, how long they last, the seasonal timing of when things like the last frost occurs, and also the spatial extent of extreme events — so where are conditions going to happen in the future that are outside of the observed experience of the last several generations.

It is a set of challenges that we have to face in terms of how do we adapt or manage the risk of these changes. Also, how do we prepare knowing that they may come in combination or in overlapping ways, with more than one extreme event happening at the same time, or in the same season in a sequence, or potentially hitting different parts of the same market or commodities trade exchange or something like that.

We are facing a situation where we have more information about these regional risks, but also know that every increment of climate change that occurs makes these changes more prominent. That sounds scary, but it also gives us agency.

It gives us the ability to reduce these changes if we reduce emissions, and if we can eventually limit them to something like net zero — no total carbon emissions into the climate system. And in that sense, I still remain optimistic despite all this information that you’re seeing in the report about the changes that could come. The bottom line is we have the potential to reduce those changes, if we can get emissions under control.

Source: A NASA scientist explains why the weather is becoming more extreme – The Verge

.

Related Contents:

Scientific Consensus: Earth’s Climate is Warming

United Nations Environment Programme

Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise

How insurance can support climate resilience

Cross-sectoral interactions of adaptation and mitigation measures

Trade-offs and conflicts between urban climate change mitigation and adaptation measures

Earth Is Warmer Than It’s Been in 125,000 Years

Work of the Statistical Commission pertaining to the 2030

Natural Resources Defense Council, 29 September 2017.

Co-financing in the green climate fund: lessons from the global environment facility

Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming

Weart “The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect

Hurricanes and Climate Change

Weart “Suspicions of a Human-Caused Greenhouse

Climate Models and their Evaluation

Historical Overview of Climate Change Science

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional

IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation

Climate Crisis: Scientists Spot Warning Signs of Gulf Stream Collapse

Climate scientists have detected warning signs of the collapse of the Gulf Stream, one of the planet’s main potential tipping points.

The research found “an almost complete loss of stability over the last century” of the currents that researchers call the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The currents are already at their slowest point in at least 1,600 years, but the new analysis shows they may be nearing a shutdown.

Such an event would have catastrophic consequences around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and West Africa; increasing storms and lowering temperatures in Europe; and pushing up the sea level off eastern North America. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets.

The complexity of the AMOC system and uncertainty over levels of future global heating make it impossible to forecast the date of any collapse for now. It could be within a decade or two, or several centuries away. But the colossal impact it would have means it must never be allowed to happen, the scientists said.

“The signs of destabilisation being visible already is something that I wouldn’t have expected and that I find scary,” said Niklas Boers, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who did the research. “It’s something you just can’t [allow to] happen.”

It is not known what level of CO2 would trigger an AMOC collapse, he said. “So the only thing to do is keep emissions as low as possible. The likelihood of this extremely high-impact event happening increases with every gram of CO2 that we put into the atmosphere”.

Scientists are increasingly concerned about tipping points – large, fast and irreversible changes to the climate. Boers and his colleagues reported in May that a significant part of the Greenland ice sheet is on the brink, threatening a big rise in global sea level. Others have shown recently that the Amazon rainforest is now emitting more CO2 than it absorbs, and that the 2020 Siberian heatwave led to worrying releases of methane.

The world may already have crossed a series of tipping points, according to a 2019 analysis, resulting in “an existential threat to civilization”. A major report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due on Monday, is expected to set out the worsening state of the climate crisis.

Boer’s research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, is titled “Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the AMOC”. Ice-core and other data from the last 100,000 years show the AMOC has two states: a fast, strong one, as seen over recent millennia, and a slow, weak one. The data shows rising temperatures can make the AMOC switch abruptly between states over one to five decades.

The AMOC is driven by dense, salty seawater sinking into the Arctic ocean, but the melting of freshwater from Greenland’s ice sheet is slowing the process down earlier than climate models suggested.

Boers used the analogy of a chair to explain how changes in ocean temperature and salinity can reveal the AMOC’s instability. Pushing a chair alters its position, but does not affect its stability if all four legs remain on the floor. Tilting the chair changes both its position and stability.

Eight independently measured datasets of temperature and salinity going back as far as 150 years enabled Boers to show that global heating is indeed increasing the instability of the currents, not just changing their flow pattern.

The analysis concluded: “This decline [of the AMOC in recent decades] may be associated with an almost complete loss of stability over the course of the last century, and the AMOC could be close to a critical transition to its weak circulation mode.”

Levke Caesar, at Maynooth University in Ireland, who was not involved in the research, said: “The study method cannot give us an exact timing of a possible collapse, but the analysis presents evidence that the AMOC has already lost stability, which I take as a warning that we might be closer to an AMOC tipping than we think.”

David Thornalley, at University College London in the UK, whose work showed the AMOC is at its weakest point in 1,600 years, said: “These signs of decreasing stability are concerning. But we still don’t know if a collapse will occur, or how close we might be to it.”

By: Environment editor

Source: Climate crisis: Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream collapse | Climate change | The Guardian

.

More Contents:

How to Build a Water-Smart City

As water shortages and drought become increasingly common, cities will need to invest in infrastructure and find ways to recycle their supply.

Cities across time have stretched to secure water. The Romans built aqueducts, the Mayans constructed underground storage chambers, and Hohokam farmers dug more than 500 miles of canals in what is now the U.S. Southwest.

Today’s cities use portfolios of technologies to conserve supply — everything from 60-story dams and chemicals to centrifugal pumps and special toilets. And yet, the cities of tomorrow will have to do more.

A recent United Nations report on drought says climate change is increasing the frequency, severity and duration of droughts, which contribute to food insecurity, poverty and inequality. The report also asserts that “drought has been the single longest-term physical trigger of political change in 5,000 years of recorded human history.” It calls for urgent action and a transformation in governance to manage modern drought risk more effectively.

Examples can be found globally. In 2018, Cape Town, South Africa, narrowly averted a “Day Zero,” when the taps would have run dry. Indian aquifers are falling fast. The Colorado River, a water source for 40 million people, faces dire shortages as the American West slides deeper into “megadrought.” By 2050, the world’s population is projected to near 10 billion, increasing water demand by 55%. And by then, two-thirds of people will live in cities.

US-CLIMATE-DROUGHT
Houseboats sit in low water on Lake Oroville on July 25, 2021, as California’s drought emergency worsens.
Photographer: Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images

“As cities continue to grow, they will have more water demand from many sectors: residential, industrial, ecological,” says Enrique Vivoni, a hydrologist at Arizona State University. “City planners have to think ahead, and not only 5, 10 years, but perhaps 50 or 100 years.”

Every place is different when it comes to preparing for these challenges, but some tactics are universally applicable enough that they can be united into a blueprint for the water-smart cities of tomorrow.

Recycle Water

Experts point to one way everyone on the planet can conserve water: Use it more than once. We recycle plastics and metals, but why not water? Dragan Savic, chief executive officer of KWR Water Research Institute in the Netherlands, believes recycling at home is a “huge” opportunity. Newsha Ajami, director of Urban Water Policy at Stanford University’s Water in the West initiative, says onsite reuse is perhaps the best way to improve efficiency.

“If we think about the cities that we have right now, it’s pretty much a one-use system,” Ajami says. “So, water comes in, we use it once, it goes out. You flush down the toilet the same water that you drink, which is not very efficient, if you think about it.”

Homes should use water many times, according to Ajami. A multi-use approach is possible because several uses — landscaping, gardening and toilet water — don’t require drinking-quality water. Many of these needs can be met with greywater, meaning waste-free recycled water. As much as 75% of domestic water can be reused as greywater.

Installation of diverter valve for greywater system at new home construction site, California
A diverter valve for a greywater system is installed at a new home construction site in Los Angeles. A branched greywater system diverts discarded water from sinks and washing machines away from sewage lines, and recycles it back via a gravity-fed drain system for irrigation and back into the aquifer.
Photographer: Citizen of the Planet/Education Images/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

Consider the toilet. Toilets account for up to 30% of indoor domestic water use. However, toilet water could be second use, routed from sinks, showers and dishwashers, cutting demand. Some cities are acting on this knowledge. Sydney, Australia, has designed Green Square, a town center designed for sustainability and water reuse, including as toilet water. Microsoft’s office in Herzliya, Israel, is routing greywater to toilets as well.

Greywater can also help meet water needs for landscaping, which comprises almost one-third of residential American water use. Additionally, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency notes that informed plant selection can save 20% to 50% of landscaping water. Proper irrigation can save even more.

Measure Usage

More precise data on water usage could also aid conservation. With better water metering, people might better understand their home usage, both indoors and outdoors.

“Water is less measured than other systems, like transportation,” KWR’s Savic says. “If you don’t measure it, you cannot manage it.”

Ajami says she believes a “Nest-like device” that measures water usage by category could aid in such efforts. It might, for one, “let you know that you’re using too much water in the shower.” She also advocates for reforming water utilities themselves, since those companies profit from increased usage. Rate structures must be decoupled in a way that lets utilities recover their costs regardless of the water volume they sell.

“If you want to promote conservation, these utilities are not set for these consumption patterns,” Ajami says. “They’re selling you a commodity.”

Get Creative

As water becomes scarcer, some have even returned to the ancient art of rainwater harvesting, which can relieve pressure on surface water and groundwater sources if scaled broadly.

Cities across the globe are encouraging the practice, and, even in the driest of places, people have found a way to collect and store rain. In Tucson, Arizona, resident Brad Lancaster meets 95% of his water needs via rain. Many American cities offer financial incentives to people who install rainwater harvesting systems, making local water systems more resilient. In India, mandatory rainwater harvesting laws have arisen in some states and cities, like Tamil Nadu and New Delhi.

“Every drop of water we harvest from an alternative source is a drop of water we’re not taking out of the environment in a different way,” Ajami says.

Air conditioner condensate is another water source with potential, though it’s not likely to be a major contributor, especially in cities lacking humidity. Water is a byproduct of air conditioning. Places like the San Diego Airport and the Austin Public Library are collecting this water condensate and using it for power-washing, gardening and even brewing beer.

In the fastest-growing metropolitan area in the U.S., greater Phoenix, towns are ramping up reclaimed wastewater use, efforts that have led to some reduction in groundwater dependency. Similarly, Orange County in California has set records for reclaimed wastewater production. And in the desert city of Windhoek, capital of Namibia, reclaimed wastewater has been a vital water source for 50 years.

Desalination is another possibility. Turning salt water to fresh water has proven an important water source even in wet cities like London. The largest desalination plant in North America, in San Diego, produces tens of millions of gallons of freshwater per day. The process, however, is energy intensive and often uses fossil fuels (for now), meaning cities must balance costs and carbon emissions with their water needs.

Additionally, there are offsite water sources with narrower applicability, like the fog-catching machines of Lima, Peru. Even the International Space Station treats astronaut sweat, urine and breath moisture for water reuse.

Tackle the Underlying Cause

Cities can employ a range of solutions to tackle water scarcity, but climate change remains the root cause of many looming water issues. It drives supply-side water problems — lowering rivers, increasing evapotranspiration and disrupting precipitation patterns. If greenhouse gas emissions can be curbed, supply-side problems might be mitigated, according to water experts. (Demand, however, will continue to rise with population.)

Even so, some warming is already a certainty, and cities will need to become far more water efficient and invest in related education. Outdated pipes and water infrastructure must be updated. Savic emphasizes the need to equip water systems with cybersecurity. There are also a host of potential policy changes, including requiring buildings to reuse water, encouraging greywater systems, and pursuing innovative financing, like the Green Stormwater Infrastructure Fee that Tucson charges residents. That money funds rainwater capture systems and the development of green spaces.

“We are buildings future cities today,” says Ajami. “Every new development that goes up is going to be around for another 20, 40 or 100 years.”

When to build the necessary water-smart future cities? In a perfect world, 20, 40 or 100 years ago. But in our world, now.

By: Chris Malloy

Source: How to Build a Water-Smart City – Bloomberg

.

Related Contents:

Qatar extends deadline for Facility E independent water and power project proposals

SOURCE Global will test its water producing technology in Dubai

SWPC signs project agreements for Jubail 3B desalination project

Developer prequalification for PPP utilities package at Amaala project in Saudi Arabia begins

The Saudi Water Partnership Company issues a Request for Qualification for Jazan SSTP Programme

“Utilities will learn how they can leverage data collected for tracking system performance”

Apple Floats Above China Technology Crackdown For Now

The Chinese government under President Xi Jinping has rattled investors in Chinese technology companies by announcing regulatory measures meant to curb the country’s fast-growing economy while reasserting control over some of its biggest companies. But the big U.S. technology company most exposed to China — Apple Inc. — is likely insulated from the turmoil for the time being.

“The crackdown out of Beijing has caught investors by surprise given the scale and scope,” said Dan Ives, an Apple analyst at Wedbush Securities. “It’s a major overhang on Chinese tech names, but Apple has been able to navigate the China political climate unlike any other U.S technology company in the last thirty years. Apple is able to be more Teflon-like in terms of regulatory focus.”

On Tuesday — when Chinese tech giant Tencent Holdings had its worst day in a decade and Chinese tech companies ranging from food delivery to online tutoring sectors continued a multi-day free fall — Apple underscored its dominance by releasing earnings that topped Wall Street expectations for both sales and profit and reported quarterly revenue that topped $100 billion for the first time. That included strong growth in Apple’s Greater China region, in which it reported $14.8 billion in sales, up 58% from the same quarter a year ago.

Under the premise of tackling the technology industry’s anti-competitive practices and cybersecurity concerns to curbing rising costs of tutoring companies, the Chinese government has sent a clear message: It is not afraid to wipe out massive economic gains in order to pursue its policies. “China goes back and forth on cracking down on their companies,” said Mark Zgutowicz, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities.

“If you think about Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com — China does not want any of their companies to get too big for them to control. And whenever these companies get too big for their britches, China will come down and say, ‘You know what, we’re going to regulate this or bring in another competitor.’”

Apple’s manufacturing supply chain is based in China and Taiwan, where nearly every iPhone, iPad and Mac computer is made. Over the years, China has proven itself to be both an important customer and partner to Apple.

According to Zgutowicz, Apple’s presence in China is actually a boon to the government’s agenda. Chinese technology companies like Huawei Technologies, Shenzhen Zhixin New Information Technology, Vivo Communication Technology Company and Guangdong Oppo Mobile Telecommunications Corp. have more or the same amount of mobile phone market share in China as Apple, according to data from market research firm Counterpoint.

This means that Apple is simply another player that keeps its domestic companies from getting too big. “Ironically, Apple keeps the other companies in check,” Żgutowicz said. “It keeps things level for the other Chinese manufacturers.”

Apple may not be facing the brunt of the Chinese crackdown, but it has not been totally immune to its regulatory bodies in recent years. In 2017, after China passed a cybersecurity law that required technology companies operating in China to store Chinese users’ data in the country, Apple agreed to build two data centers in the country. Cook assured the public that it would keep that data safe. But a recent New York Times investigation asserted that the company had more or less given up control of the computers inside the data center to the Chinese state.

In August 2020, Apple took down 47,000 applications from its App Store at the request of the Chinese government for not obtaining the appropriate gaming licenses, according to Rich Bishop, CEO of AppInChina, a Beijing-based firm that is a leading publisher of international apps in China and helps developers localize their apps and be compliant with local laws.

This request came after a decade of China turning a blind eye on how Apple operates its App Store in the country. “It is very unclear why the Chinese government has allowed Apple to operate until now without compliance with Chinese law,” said Bishop. “I would imagine it is because Apple contributes a lot to the Chinese economy in terms of manufacturing and sales — or maybe they have solid government relationships.”

The company’s heavy reliance on the region was an effort led in large part by Tim Cook, who worked at Apple for thirteen years under Steve Jobs before becoming its CEO in 2011. In the early 2000s, the Chinese government and its business leaders welcomed Apple, spending billions to build factories, power plants and employee housing. In one instance in 2004, when Apple was looking to expand its footprint in the country, a manufacturing partner in China physically moved a mountain in order to make space for an iPod-building factory.

Chief executives at some of Apple’s largest supply chain partners in China and Taiwan have become billionaires themselves. Zhou Qunfei, who chairs Lens Technology, a smartphone screen supplier that has long been one of Apple’s earliest suppliers for the iPhone, is one of the greater China region’s richest women, worth a cool $12.7 billion. Terry Gou, who founded Foxconn and assembles iPhones for Apple, is the richest person in Taiwan with a net worth of $6.7 billion.

“Part of this tight-wire balancing act for Apple and Cook has been to make sure they are successful in China without any blowback from the ongoing U.S.-China Cold Tech War,” said Ives of Wedbush. “And the reality is that in a peak iPhone cycle, Apple through its supply chain is one of the biggest importers in the whole country of China, potentially employing more than a million employees across the broader supply chain in the country.”

Apple and the greater China region have enjoyed a symbiotic relationship, but the company has made concessions in order to placate an increasingly controlling government. For now, it works — until the Chinese government starts to see Apple as a threat. “China welcomes the competition as long as Apple doesn’t get too big,” said Zgutowicz. “But whenever a company starts to get too big, they will see it from miles away. They do not want companies to get too big and create their own government with their users.”

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Send me a secure tip.

I am a staff writer at Forbes. Follow me on Twitter or send me an email at aau-yeung@forbes.com.

Source: Apple Floats Above China Technology Crackdown — For Now

.

Related Contents:

Invesco China Technology ETF (NYSEARCA:CQQQ) Sees Large Volume Increase

China ETFs Getting Pounded Amid Government Crackdowns

Futures Slide As Asian Stocks Plunge To 2021 Lows

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Plummets Further on China Technology Clampdown on 27 July– NonSell.com

BCM Alliance Receives RM845 Million Order From China For Coronavirus Disabling Devices

Chinese steelmaker starts using Iranian technology

Mapped: Visualizing GDP per Capita Worldwide in 2021

Asia ex-China tech IPOs thrive | IFR

Gordon Orr on LinkedIn: Pentagon drones ‘8 to 14 times’ costlier than banned Chinese craft | 19 comments

Chinese Eating Food | Super Eating with Spicy Food, Tik Tok China | Technology Food Taste

China orders Tencent to give up exclusive music licensing rights as

Notes from the Investment Floor: Staying positive on US high yield

Emerging Markets Innovate & Power Transformation | Franklin Templeton

The most insightful stories about China Technology

Huawei P50 Series Reportedly Set to Launch Globally After July 29 Debut in China | Technology News

IHT Wealth Management LLC Grows Stock Holdings in Invesco China Technology ETF (NYSEARCA:CQQQ)

5 Key Factors for Successful Digital Transformation

Norway says cyber attack on parliament carried out from China | Technology

Facial recognition for gamers, app store bans for Didi: what’s behind China’s recent crackdown on big tech? –

What’s behind China’s crackdown on big tech?

US Hegemony Ends by Seppuku (Part 2) – Usanas Foundation – Decode Diagnose Demystify

Cisco appoints Daisy Chittilapilly as president of India, SAARC operations | Business Standard News

China ETFs: A Contrarian Opportunity?

We Can’t Fight Climate Change Without Valuing Nature

new study in Nature Sustainability incorporates the damages that climate change does to healthy ecosystems into standard climate-economics models. The key finding in the study by Bernardo Bastien-Olvera and Frances Moore from the University of California at Davis: The models have been underestimating the cost of climate damages to society by a factor of more than five.

Their study concludes that the most cost-effective emissions pathway results in just 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) additional global warming by 2100, consistent with the “aspirational” objective of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.

Models that combine climate science and economics, called “integrated assessment models” (IAMs), are critical tools in developing and implementing climate policies and regulations. In 2010, an Obama administration governmental interagency working group used IAMs to establish the social cost of carbon – the first federal estimates of climate damage costs caused by carbon pollution. That number guides federal agencies required to consider the costs and benefits of proposed regulations.

Economic models of climate have long been criticized by those convinced they underestimate the costs of climate damages, in some cases to a degree that climate scientists consider absurd.

Given the importance of the social cost of carbon to federal rulemaking, some critics have complained that the Trump EPA used what they see as creative accounting to slash the government’s estimate of the number. In one of his inauguration day Executive Orders, President Biden established a new Interagency Working Group to re-evaluate the social cost of all greenhouse gases.

IAMs often have long been criticized by those convinced they underestimate the costs of climate damages, in some cases to a degree that climate scientists consider absurd.

Perhaps the most prominent IAM is the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model, for which its creator, William Nordhaus, was awarded the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Judging by DICE, the economically optimal carbon emissions pathway – that is, the pathway considered most cost-effective – would lead to a warming increase of more than 3°C (5.4°F) from pre-industrial temperatures by 2100 (under a 3% discount rate). IPCC has reported that reaching this level of further warming could likely result in severe consequences, including substantial species extinctions and very high risks of food supply instabilities.

In their Nature Sustainability study, the UC Davis researchers find that when natural capital is incorporated into the models, the emissions pathway that yields the best outcome for the global economy is more consistent with the dangerous risks posed by continued global warming described in the published climate science literature.

Accounting for climate change degrading of natural capital

Natural capital includes elements of nature that produce value to people either directly or indirectly. “DICE models economic production as a function of generic capital and labor,” Moore explained via email. “If instead you think natural capital plays some distinct role in economic production, and that climate change will disproportionately affect natural capital, then the economic implications are much larger than if you just roll everything together and allow damage to affect output.”

Bastien-Olvera offered an analogy to explain the incorporation of natural capital into the models: “The standard approach looks at how climate change is damaging ‘the fruit of the tree’ (market goods); we are looking at how climate change is damaging the ‘tree’ itself (natural capital).”

In an adaptation of DICE they call “GreenDICE,” the authors incorporated climate impacts on natural capital via three pathways:

The first pathway accounts for the direct influence of natural capital on market goods. Some industries like timber, agriculture, and fisheries are heavily dependent on natural capital, but all goods produced in the economy rely on these natural resources to some degree.

According to GreenDICE, this pathway alone more than doubles the model’s central estimate of the social cost of carbon in 2020 from $28 per ton in the standard DICE model to $72 per ton, and the new economically optimal pathway would have society limit global warming to 2.2°C (4°F) above pre-industrial temperatures by 2100.

The second pathway incorporates ecosystem services that don’t directly feed into market goods. Examples are the flood protection provided by a healthy mangrove forest, or the recreational benefits provided by natural places.

In the study, this second pathway nearly doubles the social cost of carbon once again, to $133 per ton in 2020, and it lowers the most cost-effective pathway to 1.8°C (3.2°F) by 2100.

Finally, the third pathway includes non-use values, which incorporate the value people place on species or natural places, regardless of any good they produce. The most difficult to quantify, this pathway could be measured, for instance, by asking people how much they would be willing to pay to save one of these species from extinction.

In GreenDICE, non-use values increase the social cost of carbon to $160 per ton of carbon dioxide in 2020 (rising to about $300 in 2050 and $670 per ton in 2100) and limit global warming to about 1.5°C (2.8°F) by 2100 in the new economically optimal emissions pathway.

(Note for economics wonks – the model runs used a 1.5% pure rate of time preference.)

Climate economics findings increasingly reinforce Paris targets

It may come as no surprise that destabilizing Earth’s climate would be a costly proposition, but key IAMs have suggested otherwise. Based on the new Nature Sustainability study, the models have been missing the substantial value of natural capital associated with healthy ecosystems that are being degraded by climate change.

Columbia University economist Noah Kaufman, not involved in the study, noted via email that as long as federal agencies use the social cost of carbon in IAMs for rulemaking cost-benefit analyses, efforts like GreenDICE are important to improving those estimates. According to Kaufman, many papers (including one he authored a decade ago) have tried to improve IAMs by following a similar recipe: “start with DICE => find an important problem => improve the methodology => produce a (usually much higher) social cost of carbon.”

For example, several other papers published in recent years, including one authored by Moore, have suggested that, because they neglect ways that climate change will slow economic growth, IAMs may also be significantly underestimating climate damage costs. Poorer countries – often located in already-hot climates near the equator, with economies relying most heavily on natural capital, and lacking resources to adapt to climate change – are the most vulnerable to its damages, despite their being the least responsible for the carbon pollution causing the climate crisis.

Another recent study in Nature Climate Change updated the climate science and economics assumptions in DICE and similarly concluded that the most cost-effective emissions pathway would limit global warming to less than 2°C (3.6°F) by 2100, without even including the value of natural capital. Asked about that paper, Bastien-Olvera noted, “In my view, the fact that these two studies get to similar policy conclusions using two very different approaches definitely indicates the urgency of cutting emissions.”

Recent economics and climate science research findings consistently support more aggressive carbon emissions efforts consistent with the Paris climate targets.

Wesleyan University economist Gary Yohe, also not involved in the study, agreed that the new Nature Sustainability study “supports growing calls for aggressive near-term mitigation.” Yohe said the paper “provides added support to the notion that climate risks to natural capital are important considerations, especially in calibrating the climate risk impacts of all sorts of regulations like CAFE standards.”

But Yohe said he believes that considering the risks to unique and threatened systems at higher temperatures makes a more persuasive case for climate policy than just attempting to assess their economic impacts. In a recent Nature Climate Change paper, Kaufman and colleagues similarly suggested that policymakers should select a net-zero emissions target informed by the best available science and economics, and then use models to set a carbon price that would achieve those goals. Their study estimated that to reach net-zero carbon pollution by 2050, the U.S. should set a carbon price of about $50 per ton in 2025, rising to $100 per ton by 2030.

However climate damages are evaluated, whether through a more complete economic accounting of adverse impacts or via risk-based assessments of physical threats to ecological and human systems, recent economics and climate science research findings consistently support more aggressive carbon emissions efforts consistent with the Paris climate targets.

Dana Nuccitelli

By

Source: We Can’t Fight Climate Change Without Valuing Nature – The Good Men Project

..

.

More Contents:

Questionable exclusion from climate summit
[…]   Surprisingly Pakistan which is among the countries worst hit by the climate change, is contributing to shape global climate change discourse as the Vice President of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has not been invited […]
0
The Dry Corridor: Climate Change’s Impact on Hunger in Central America
sfcir.secure.force.com – Today
[…]   Carlos Fuller is the International and Regional Liaison Officer of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, an intergovernmental organization established to coordinate CARICOM’s response to climate change. Mr. Fuller’s primary responsibility is to coordinate the region in the international climate change negotiation process […]
2
GOP lawmakers take aim at Arizona renewable energy standards
abcnews.go.com – Today
[…] forced to keep installing green technologies at a time when Arizona faces more extreme heat from climate change […]
0
“Crisis of Capitalism”: Roberto Lovato on How U.S. Policies Fuel Migration & Instability
[…] number of asylum seekers are arriving at the southern border, fleeing extreme poverty, violence and climate change in their home countries […] It’s just there’s different actors, different conditions — for example, like climate change […] The new animal and the new beast in the room is climate change […]
5
GOP lawmakers take aim at Arizona renewable energy standards
abcnews.go.com – Today
[…] forced to keep installing green technologies at a time when Arizona faces more extreme heat from climate change […]
3
GOP lawmakers take aim at Arizona renewable energy standards GOP Democrats Arizona California Colorado
[…] forced to keep installing green technologies at a time when Arizona faces more extreme heat from climate change […]
N/A
GOP lawmakers take aim at Arizona renewable energy standards
waow.com – Today
[…] forced to keep installing green technologies at a time when Arizona faces more extreme heat from climate change […]
0
GOP lawmakers take aim at Arizona renewable energy standards – StarTribune.com
[…] forced to keep installing green technologies at a time when Arizona faces more extreme heat from climate change […]
0
Farm Insurance Coverage in Edmonton, Alberta
[…] This province gets more than its fair share of severe weather, and with climate change being an ever-growing concern, it’s in the best interest of all Alberta farmers to expect th […]
0
GOP lawmakers take aim at Arizona renewable energy standards
wtop.com – Today
[…] forced to keep installing green technologies at a time when Arizona faces more extreme heat from climate change […]
0
WebPort Global – Blog Community
[…] Choden is a social entrepreneur and consultant possessing an ecosystem portfolio of careers in climate change and sustainability issues encompassing […]
0
REFLECT Webinar: Geothermal Energy in Turkey
[…] contributions to international conferences and is editor of the book “Groundwater and Ecosystems”, “Climate Change and its Effects on Water Resources, Issues of National and Global Security” (NATO Science Series […]
N/A
Milner Library provides access to Dr. Harsha Walia’s e-books ahead of her keynote lecture – News – Illinois State
news.illinoisstate.edu – Today
[…] Bringing together discussions of how conquest, capitalist globalization, and climate change are displacing people worldwide, she maps the lucrative connections between state violence […]
0
Ann Makosinski: Inventing your UBC experience
you.ubc.ca – Today
[…] Climate Grant, a $50,000 award given to “young entrepreneurs who are advancing viable solutions to climate change in Canada,” funded by Canadian Geographic and Shell […]
21
The climate crisis is seriously spooking economists
[…] the financial toll from the climate crisis is expected to rise dramatically: Economic damage from climate change is projected to reach $1 […] “People who spend their careers studying our economy are in widespread agreement that climate change will be expensive, potentially devastatingly so,” Peter Howard, economics director at the Institute […] The authors reached out to 2,169 economists who have published articles related to climate change in a highly-rated economic journal […]
12
Finnish vertical farming technology saves water and reduces energy consumption –
greenhouse.news – Today
[…] Environmental issues and climate change set various challenges on farming […]
1
Democrats’ $8.3B budget primed for passage after party-line House vote
bangordailynews.com – Today
[…] Sophia Warren, I-Scarborough, to direct the Maine Climate Council to seek funding for climate change initiatives was killed in the House […]
1
The Answer To Anti-Asian Racism Is Not More Policing
popularresistance.org – Today
[…] Kayla Hui (she/her) is a freelance journalist covering health, policy, social justice, and climate change […]
0
Rexel : AMENDMENT TO THE 2020 UNIVERSAL REGISTRATION DOCUMENT MADE AVAILABLE | MarketScreener
[…] Rexel is rated A- in the 2020 CDP Climate Change assessment and ranked in the 2020 CDP Supplier Engagement Leaderboard […]
0
US, EU financial regulators meet to discuss stablecoins and CBDCs ⋆
[…] The US officials also touched on climate change and how it constitutes potentially an economic risk […]
0
Covering Climate Now: Katrina vanden Heuvel, The Nation – Morningside Area Alliance
morningside-alliance.org – Today
[…] Heuvel, The Nation WATCH LATER SUBSCRIBE News media can no longer be complacent when it comes to climate change […]
0
Understanding the Health Harms of Climate Change: A Six Americas Analysis
mailchi.mp – Today
Dear Friends, Over the past six years, Americans have become increasingly aware that climate change threatens human health in multiple ways […] Six Americas, six segments of the public that differ in their understanding of and concern about climate change.    We find that awareness of climate change health harms has increased not only among the two audience segments that are most worried abou […] Director, Yale Program on Climate Change Communication Yale School of the Environment (203) 432-4865 Twitter: @ecotone2 environment […]
0
“Dairy Feed in Focus” program aims to drive economic and environmental benefits for farmers
[…] “Dairy Feed in Focus” is another way of contributing to global food production, while addressing climate change, water security and biodiversity […]
0
50 Times Architects Really Outdid Themselves And People Celebrated Their Works Online
[…] responsible and more resource-efficient, which are both vital to reducing the effects of climate change […]
N/A
COVID: Angela Merkel vows to take tough action | Germany| News and in-depth reporting from Berlin and beyond | DW | 29.03.2021
[…] They have benefited from new urgency to address climate change and the electorate’s disenchantment with the current “grand coalition” of CDU/CSU and th […]
0
MTM- So Much More Than Just a Lift | Company Report | Technology
[…] cares about community impact, and we feel very strongly about diversity, equity, inclusion, and climate change […]
1
A Unified Research Data Infrastructure for Catalysis Research – Challenges and Concepts – Wulf – – ChemCatChem – Wiley Online Library
chemistry-europe.onlinelibrary.wiley.com – Today
[…] 1 Introduction Catalysis is a key technology field for solving the challenges related to climate change and a sustainable supply of energy and materials […]
N/A
PM call with President Joko Widodo of Indonesia: 30 March 2021
[…] They discussed the opportunities for collaboration to tackle climate change and protect nature, and the Prime Minister highlighted the importance of setting ambitious 203 […]
0
What Your Finance Chief Should Learn From Auto Industry CFOs
chiefexecutive.net – Today
[…] In one clear example, the Biden administration’s renewed focus on climate change is pushing the industry hard in the direction of environmental sustainability […]
N/A
Purolator deploys fully electric delivery vehicles in Vancouver; Motiv Power Systems
ecotopical.com – Today
[…] of Super-Polluting Methane Gas, With or Without the Republicans InsideClimate News 96 How Will Climate Change Affect Hailstorms? ENN 91 Baker Hughes acquires exclusive license from SRI International for mixe […]
1
Austin looks to blockchain to help the homeless – Cities Today – CRYPTO CRYPTO NEWS
cryptocryptonews.com – Today
[…] power for up to 5,000 homes, the scheme aims to address historic environmental justice concerns, climate change, and economic development in underserved communities […]
0
Google Maps to start directing drivers to ‘eco-friendly’ routes – Software
[…] this year in the US and eventually reach other countries as part of its commitment to help combat climate change through its services […]
2
ESG Litigation in Europe
[…] Equally, in relation to environmental claims, concerns about climate change have dramatically altered the profile of environmental litigation away from claims seeking t […] [xi] There has also been a slew of climate change litigation including directly against companies. According to LSE’s 2020 study of climate change lawsuit trends, litigation against major oil and gas companies has increased significantly sinc […]
0
Remote monitoring could boost the use of nature-based solutions to safeguard against natural hazards | EurekAlert! Science News
[…] protect communities from devastating natural hazards such as floods, storms and landslides, say climate change experts from the University of Surrey […] manage their growing population and address the planet’s ongoing struggle against urbanisation and climate change […] of Surrey, said: “Unfortunately we do expect a significant uptick in natural hazards, thanks to climate change […]
0
Google Maps to start directing drivers to ‘eco-friendly’ routes in U.S. | Toronto Sun
torontosun.com – Today
[…] and eventually reach other countries as part of its commitment to help combat climate change through its services […]
N/A
Factors that may predict next pandemic
[…]   Modelling from the Sydney School of Veterinary Science suggests pressure on ecosystems, climate change and economic development are key factors associated with the diversification of pathogen […]   These factors combined confirm human development – including human-influenced climate change – not only damages our environment but is responsible for the emergence of infectious diseases […] suggests sustainable development is not only critical to maintaining ecosystems and slowing climate change; it can inform disease control, mitigation, or prevention,” Professor Ward said […]
N/A
Google Maps to start directing drivers to ‘eco-friendly’ routes
[…] and eventually reach other countries as part of its commitment to help combat climate change through its services […]
2
Want to create 5 million green jobs? Invest in public transport in cities | Business
[…] Cities are key to combating climate change because they generate three-quarters of carbon emissions, earlier studies have found, with urgen […]
0
Grain School returns to UCCS in April event –
communique.uccs.edu – Today
[…] and their relationship to health, nutrition, dietary fiber, and the microbiome, environment and climate change issues related to agriculture, and topics of biodiversity, grain’s role in sustainable farmin […]
0
UMD study suggests supporting Indonesian women in conservation supports biodiversity –
bioengineer.org – Today
[…] “Climate change, habitat loss and encroachment, an increasing human population putting stress on natura […]
0
Government Innovation
annualreport.bloomberg.org – Today
[…] cities” with funding and guidance to develop and test local responses to challenges around climate change, health, and other critical issues […]
8
in ClimateChangeMitigation.eu’s newsletter
climatestorylines.eu – Today
[…] eu Interested in climate change mitigation? Subscribe to the ClimateChangeMitigation […]
N/A
Can sustainability save capitalism? | Greenbiz
[…] wiping out poverty, protecting human rights, ensuring clean water and sanitation and mitigating climate change are no longer seen as do-good fantasies […] but its roots emanate from the publication of Laudato si’, Pope Francis’ 2015 encyclical on climate change […]
2
Valuing water:  An elusive ‘blue gold’ to billions   –
mb.com.ph – Today
[…]   Water scarcity, flooding and climate change can push up costs and disrupt supply chains […]
0
%d bloggers like this: