Big Tech Earnings: Microsoft And Alphabet Signal Q2 Could Be A Bottom

Big Tech earnings were off to a solid start on Tuesday when Microsoft and Google reported stable revenue growth and margins that are unchanged from recent macro conditions. The strong margins were especially welcomed as many companies have been missing on operating margins and cash flow. Meanwhile, Microsoft delivered free cash flow of $17.8 billion and net profits of $16.7 billion along with upbeat guidance for the year. Similarly, Google reported strong free cash flow of $12.6 billion and net profits of $16 billion in the recent quarter.

The same was not true for Meta, which primarily stumbled on its Q3 guide. The company reported its first decline in revenue in company history and guidance for next quarter missed due to FX headwinds. Analyst expectations for Q3 were for $30.4 billion, or 5% growth. Instead, the company guided for $26 billion to $28.5 billion, or a YoY decline of 6% at the mid-point of the guidance with the current exchange rates creating a 6% headwind.

Alphabet: Search is Resilient

The company reported revenue of 13%, or 16% in constant currency, for a total of $69.7 billion. The operating margin was flat year-over-year, which is a win. Operating expenses grew 24% yet the operating margin was in line with previous quarters at 28% for $19.58 billion in operating income.

The net margin was a bit weaker than previous quarters in 2021 at $16 billion yet in line with last quarter. The company has free cash flow of $12.6 billion. The company has $125 billion in cash and marketable securities. The company reported EPS of $1.21 compared to $1.36 for the same period last year.

Search was stable given the current environment at 13.5% growth to $40 billion and this provided relief that not all ad spend has been paused. Search was strong last quarter at 24% growth to $40 billion, and was flat sequentially in terms of total dollar amount.

The effects of Google’s large R&D department and advances in AI cannot be overstated when it comes to the resiliency of Search in the current environment. We are getting a very slight glimpse of what’s to come for Google in terms of its advertising dominance.

The expectations were that YouTube would weigh on the report yet YouTube provided a bit of growth at 5% year-over-year. The company was adamant that YouTube growth is low because of the tough comps. The tough comps was touched on many times, such as this: “the modest year-on-year growth rate primarily reflects lapping the uniquely strong performance in the second quarter of 2021.”

Notably, Google Cloud slowed to 35.6% growth down from 43.8% growth last quarter. This means Google Cloud is growing slower than Azure on a lower revenue base. This is something to monitor in the future.

Microsoft: Double-Digit Guide for FY2023

Many tech companies are declining to give guidance while Microsoft’s management provided strong guidance in both Q1 FY2023 and for FY2023. For Q1 FY2023, management provided a 10% guide across product lines for next quarter (this includes FX headwinds) and also provided guidance for fiscal year 2023 ending in June: “We continue to expect double-digit revenue and operating income growth in both constant currency and U.S. dollars. Revenue growth will be driven by continued momentum in our commercial business and a focus on share gains across our portfolio.”

Revenue grew by 12% YoY to $51.9 billion (missed Wall Street analysts’ estimates by 0.94%) and EPS came at $2.23 (missed estimates by 2.9%). The strong US dollar negatively impacted the revenue by $595 million and EPS by $0.04. Microsoft Cloud revenue grew by 28% YoY to $25 billion. The company’s results are good considering the various macro uncertainties, China lockdown, and the strong US dollar. FY2022 revenue grew by 18% YoY to $198.3 billion and net income increased by 19% YoY to $72.7 billion.

The company’s gross income increased 10% YoY to $35.4 billion. The gross margin decreased by 147 bps to 68.2% when compared to the same period last year. Excluding the impact from the change in the accounting estimate, the gross margin was relatively unchanged.

The operating income increased by 8% YoY to $20.5 billion. The operating margin decreased by 187 bps to 39.5%. Excluding the impact from the change in the accounting estimate and FX, the operating margin would be relatively unchanged.

The company’s cash flows continued to be strong in the recent quarter. Cash from operations grew by 8% YoY to $24.6 billion (47% of revenue) and free cash flow increased by 9% YoY to $17.8 billion (34% of revenue). The company has cash and investments of $104.8 billion and debt of $49.8 billion.

Despite weakness in PCs, the company’s other segments continue to grow. Intelligent Cloud grew 20% YoY to $20.9 billion and Productivity and Business Processes segment grew 13% YoY to $16.6 billion. The company also made an accounting change in the useful life for server and network equipment assets from four to six years which will extend the depreciation expenses for the company.

Amy Hood said in the earnings call, “First, effective at the start of FY ’23, we are extending the depreciable useful life for server and network equipment assets in our cloud infrastructure from 4 to 6 years, which will apply to the asset balances on our balance sheet as of June 30, 2022, as well as future asset purchases.

As a result, based on the outstanding balances as of June 30, we expect fiscal year ’23 operating income to be favorably impacted by approximately $3.7 billion for the full fiscal year and approximately $1.1 billion in the first quarter.”

Meta: Misses Q3 Expectations

The market does not need a perfect quarter for Q2 given the numerous headwinds facing tech companies. What the market does need is a sign that a company may have bottomed and is able to guide growth (even if minimal) from Q2-Q3.

In Q2, Meta’s revenue declined for the first time in history. This was expected. However, what was not expected was the lower guide for the next quarter. The company guided for $26 billion to $28.5 billion, or a YoY decline of 6% at the mid-point of the guidance. The guidance takes into consideration the weak advertising demand the company experienced in the recent quarter and also the foreign exchange headwinds of 6%. The investors were expecting a return of growth in the next quarter.

The company had a slight beat on DAUs at 1.97 billion versus 1.96 billion expected. Monthly users were 2.93 billion slightly missed expectations of 2.94 billion. Operating expenses rose 22% YoY to $20.4 billion. This led to the drop in the operating margin to 29% in the recent quarter compared to 43% in the same period last year. It also led to the 36% YoY drop in the net income to $6.69 billion. The EPS came at $2.46 compared to $3.61 in Q2 2021.

The company is looking to further reduce the operating expenses for the year to $85 billion to $88 billion from the last quarter guidance of $87 billion to $92 million and the prior estimate of $90 billion to $95 billion.

Apple: Strong results despite challenges

Apple released strong results despite the challenging macro environment, strong US dollar, and supply chain issues. Revenue grew by 1.9% YoY to $83 billion, which was in-line with the analysts’ estimates. It reported EPS of $1.20, which beat estimates by $0.04 (4% beat).

The product segment revenue declined marginally by 0.9% YoY to $63.4 billion and the services segment revenue grew by 12% YoY to $19.6 billion. The company’s installed base of active devices reached an all-time high. It had more than 860 million of paid subscriptions, up 160 million in the past year.

The company did not give exact revenue guidance for the next quarter. Tim Cook, CEO of the company, said in the earnings call, “We’re going to accelerate revenues in the September quarter as compared to the June quarter and will decelerate on the Services side.”

The company’s gross margin was 43.26%, compared to 43.75% in the previous quarter and 43.29% in the same period last year. It was above the management’s guidance of 42% to 43%. Net income was $19.4 billion or $1.20 per share compared to $21.7 billion or $1.30 per share in the same period last year. It beat the analysts’ EPS estimates by $0.04.

The company had cash and marketable securities of $179 billion and a debt of $120 billion. The company reported strong operating cash flows of $23 billion (28% of revenue). The company returned over $28 billion to the shareholders in the recent quarter in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

Royston Roche, Equity Analyst at the I/O Fund, contributed to this article.

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the company’s portfolio. We then share that information with our readers and offer real-time trade notifications. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance and it is not financial advice. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis. Beth Kindig and the I/O Fund own Alphabet and Microsoft at the time of writing.

Beth Kindig is the CEO and Lead Tech Analyst for the I/O Fund with cumulative audited results of 141%, beating Ark and other leading active tech funds over four audit periods

Source: Big Tech Earnings: Microsoft And Alphabet Signal Q2 Could Be A Bottom

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Wall Street Still Loves Big Tech Stocks: Analysts See Further Upside Ahead Of Crucial Earnings Week

Despite a brutal selloff so far this year in the tech sector, Wall Street analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Big Tech stocks ahead of upcoming second-quarter earnings this week, with the majority of experts predicting that companies like Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet can continue to post strong profits in the long run.

Though tech stocks have been hard-hit this year (with the Nasdaq down 25%) amid surging inflation, rising interest rates and ongoing recession fears, a majority of Wall Street analysts still maintain buy ratings on Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon ahead of key earnings results this week.

Three firms reiterated buy ratings on several big names Monday: Deutsche Bank predicted solid results from Apple, Bank of America expects Facebook parent Meta to see ad revenue take a smaller hit than expected and Oppenheimer predicts “robust” growth in Amazon’s AWS cloud services business.

Analysts note that while the tech sector is already slowing down, hiring across the board amid the more challenging economic environment, after a big selloff earlier this year, valuations are now looking much more attractive.

Netflix and Tesla saw their stocks rally last week after “better than feared” results, while Snap delivered “another train wreck quarter that highlights a digital ad slowdown, Apple iOS privacy headwinds and TikTok competition further heating up,” according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

While there’s been some “good and bad news” in the tech sector, “there are some encouraging signs” and investors can now buy shares in some of the biggest companies at a more attractive entry point, says Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist for Ally.

Among the more than 250 combined analysts covering the five Big Tech companies reporting earnings this week—Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon—fewer than five have sell ratings—a sign of just how bullish Wall Street is on some of America’s most valuable tech companies.

Alphabet and Microsoft kick off Big Tech earnings on Tuesday. Meta reports Wednesday, Apple and Amazon on Thursday. “Investors should be selective when picking stocks within the tech sector,” says David Trainer, CEO of New Constructs. “The strongest types of stocks are the ones where cash flows are strong and valuations underestimate the company’s ability to generate cash flows in the future.”

He especially likes Google parent Alphabet, which is trading at a “much cheaper” valuation than its peers and should continue to outperform, thanks to its ability to keep innovating. Trainer is “not as confident” about Facebook parent Meta, however, questioning the company’s “ability to sustain profits,” especially as it struggles to retain users amid increased competition from the likes of TikTok. His firm also remains bullish and “big fans” of Apple, though the stock is still somewhat expensive, he adds.

All of the Big Tech stocks have seen big losses so far this year, though they have recovered somewhat in recent months. Meta has suffered the greatest losses, with its market value falling by roughly half as Facebook’s ad business continues to struggle. Amazon and Alphabet are both down roughly 25%, Microsoft more than 20% and Apple 15%.

I am a senior reporter at Forbes covering markets and business news. Previously, I worked on the wealth team at Forbes covering billionaires and their wealth.

Source: Wall Street Still Loves Big Tech Stocks: Analysts See Further Upside Ahead Of Crucial Earnings Week

Critics by

In a single two-and-a-half-hour stretch on Jan. 25, Microsoft Corp. stock erased $156 billion of its shareholders’ money, then rebounded, recovering all of its losses and adding $74 billion. In one sense this was just another lurch in the markets’ wild ride in 2022, as investors adjust to recovering economies and the prospect of rising interest rates. But it also points to a new environment in which the most valuable U.S. tech companies are going to have to work harder to justify their trillion-dollar or near-trillion-dollar valuations.

The Big Tech companies are still doing well. The day after Microsoft’s earnings, Apple reported a quarterly performance that wildly exceeded expectations. On Feb. 1, Alphabet also beat analysts’ projections. Share prices for both companies spiked—but remain below their peaks. The way Microsoft’s white-knuckle afternoon played out is particularly illustrative of the shifting environment: At 4 p.m. New York time, it released quarterly financial results.

They exceeded analysts’ expectations, except for one crucial number: Growth slowed slightly at its lucrative Azure cloud computing business. Investors panicked, sending shares down as much as 6.8% in aftermarket trading. Shortly after 6 p.m., Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood told analysts that cloud computing growth would accelerate again in the next fiscal quarter. The stock jumped, erasing the earlier losses.

Short-term stock gyrations have limited predictive power. But the activity around Microsoft’s earnings highlighted how negatively investors are now inclined to react to slowing growth at key units, even if revenue and earnings beat expectations.

A standard way to look at how excited investors are about a particular company is to compare its share price with its expected earnings. In January 2017 the stocks of the five most valuable tech companies—Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft—traded in line with the S&P 500 as a whole, at 19 times their predicted earnings. By September 2020 that multiple for the Big Tech companies was 42, while the market as a whole traded at a 27 multiple.

Investors were rewarded. Apple shareholders enjoyed an average 43% annual return over the past five years if they reinvested all their dividends back into the stock. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google generated average returns of 38%, 28%, and 26%, respectively. Even Facebook’s relatively modest 18% outperformed the S&P 500’s average of 16%.

The lockdowns helped widen the gap between tech and everyone else, according to Kasper Elmgreen, the head of equities at Amundi SA. “The economy gets turned off, so we had an historic economic contraction that hit [vehicular] traffic, leisure, industrials, construction, financial services, and so forth hardest,” he says.

That could be changing. The Covid-19 omicron wave is receding in many places, and businesses that suffered during the pandemic could benefit more than tech companies from a renewed recovery. This could send investors looking to increase their stakes in companies they’ve spurned for the past two years while they focused on the tech giants.

“The whole case for investing in these companies and inflating their premiums was the fact that growth was scarce and they had the strongest growth prospects in the S&P 500,” says Gina Martin Adams, the chief equity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence in New York. “As economic conditions improve, that premium will naturally deflate.”

Related contents:

Netflix Stock Surges After Earnings—But Analysts Divided About Whether Growth Can Recover

New China Covid-19 Lockdowns Would Threaten U.S. Economic Recovery (Just Ask Tesla)

Tesla Shares Rally Despite Slowdown In Profits, Impact From China Shutdown

Dow Jumps 700 Points, Analysts ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ After More Solid EarningsNZ sharemarket falls another 0.2%, underperforms Wall Street Stuff.co.nz

07:34

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Nobody Wants To Pay For Ultra Fast Food Delivery

Ultra-fast delivery startups are either folding up or leaving markets, exiting the scene just as quickly as they arrived.

Another sign of potential turmoil for these unprofitable companies? Those that stick around continue to rely on giving users freebies. So far, they haven’t been able to convince customers to pay the full cost of delivery in 15 minutes or less. And while more established delivery players like Uber have been able to rely less on discounts in a pivot toward profitability, the ultra-fast delivery startups are trying to grow amid a volatile market in which both investors and customers are growing more wary of opening their wallets.

Nearly 30% of delivery orders from GoPuff, which is the biggest ultra-fast delivery player in the US, were discounted as of April, according to data from YipitData, a research firm. The share of orders discounted is greater outside of the US. For instance, Getir, a Turkish ultra-fast delivery startup, has over 80% of its orders discounted in countries like Germany and France, according to YipitData.

Tech stocks have plummeted over the past three months, and that has pushed investors to prioritize profits. In response, companies are changing how they do business. For instance, Uber rides and restaurant deliveries have become more expensive. (Unlike the newer ultrafast deliver startups, established delivery players like Uber have been able to pull back on discounts to show investors a clearer path toward profitability.)

Attracting customers with cheap Uber rides and food delivery

Discounting is a way for delivery companies, which depend on scale, to quickly attract and retain customers. Over time, as more of the orders come from customers who have been with the firms for some time, the discounting percentage should go down, said Daniel McCarthy, an assistant professor of marketing at Emory University. For rapid-delivery companies, the fact that discounting share remains high implies a less clear path to profitability.

“There is way too much money that went into this sector,” said Mathias Schilling, a founding partner at Headlines, a venture capital firm that invests in GoPuff. “Six months ago, this is the best thing and incredible… and now everything is negative. This extreme exuberance by the people is like ridiculous.”

The rapid growth of ultra-fast delivery companies

In the past couple of years, as the demand for delivery skyrocketed, ultrafast delivery services with abstract-sounding names—Buyk, Getir, Jokr—came onto the scene. Venture capitalists invested $28 billion into rapid delivery globally, more than double the amount in 2019, according to data from PitchBook, a research firm.

Like Uber’s playbook, these companies, flush with venture capital funding, burned cash fast to move into new markets and attract and retain customers with cheap services. The biggest services like GoPuff, Gorillas, and Getir relied on high order volumes and a shift in consumer shopping habits to achieve profitability, said Alex Frederick, a PitchBook analyst. But the model works best when markets are stable and VC funding is plentiful, he added.

It’s hard to make money in food delivery, as the money is split among retailer or restaurant, food delivery company, and worker. It’s even harder for faster delivery, as it requires hiring workers as employees and often comes with no minimum order. That allows a customer to order a pint of ice cream to be delivered in 15 minutes, a costly loss for ultra-fast delivery companies.

The question now is whether these companies will be able to sustain such losses, at a moment when funding is harder to come by, or will they follow in the footsteps of past rapid delivery companies that sprung up in the dot-com boom before going out of business.

Global downloads of the top 10 ultra fast delivery apps have grown 127%, year-over-year in Q1. With a more granular, monthly breakdown we can see a lot of this growth taking place in Q4 of 2021. As you can see in the chart below, this is a faster growth rate than that of the top 10 meal delivery apps (ex: Uber Eats) or top 10 grocery delivery apps (ex: Instacart). Meal delivery still takes the cake when it comes to absolute numbers.

It is reported to be acquiring French startup, Cajoo, which launched in early 2021 and struggled to gain ground in the country ever since Getir formally launched there in June 2021. This will help Flink compete with Getir in France. Flink says its reach in the country will now be greater than Getir’s but Apptopia estimates have Getir’s app usage comfortably ahead of Flink and Cajoo combined.

Ultra fast delivery companies do not just have each other to worry about. Traditional, or meal, delivery apps have massive brand power, user bases and deep pockets. Apps like Uber Eats are starting to enter the market of fast grocery delivery. Apptopia reported in January that meal delivery apps extending into grocery delivery, a faster growing segment of the delivery market.

Traditional grocery delivery apps are not standing still either. Instacart started offering 30 minute meal deliveries (sushi, salads, sandwiches) from supermarkets like Kroger and Publix. It will also begin offering 15 minute grocery delivery in the near-future.

When will supply chains go back to normal?

Supply chains should slowly recover in 2022, assuming overstuffed ports and warehouses finally get a chance to clear out the glut of containers piling up in shipyards and surrounding neighborhoods. But that will only happen if there aren’t any major new disruptions, like another mega-ship blocking the Suez Canal, future covid variants that shutter factories and ports, or other disasters that gum up the mechanisms of global trade.

Source: Nobody wants to pay for food delivery — Quartz

More contents:

Meta Vs. TikTok Vs. YouTube Shorts: The Winner Is Clear Seeking Alpha

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Housing Market ‘In Free Fall’ As New Construction Plummets

The number of housing starts, or ​​new houses on which construction started, plunged 14.4% to about 1.5 million last month from 1.8 million in April—sharply below economic projections calling for nearly 1.7 million starts, the Census Bureau reported Thursday.

Building permits also fell more than expected, coming in at less than 1.7 million in May despite expectations they would remain roughly flat from April at about 1.8 million. In emailed comments Thursday, Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson attributed the sharper-than-expected decline to an “abrupt and rapid” drop in new-home sales facing builders, who “overbuilt” since early 2021 to capitalize on demand that’s now “in free fall” and must slow construction to prevent a big hit to profits.

“This is still the early stages of the housing rollover,” adds Shepherdson, predicting the next few months will bring further steep declines in housing construction as additional interest rate hikes make home buying more expensive and push demand even lower.

Home builder stocks took a hit after the data, with the S&P Homebuilders Select Industry Index, which includes home-manufacturing giants such as Masco and Owens Corning, plunging more than 4% Thursday, while the S&P 500 fell 3%. One bright spot in the report: Home completions climbed to the highest level since 2007, which should help home price increases—clocking in at the quickest pace this century—slow from about 20% to the low single digits by the end of next year, says Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams.

Historically high savings rates and government stimulus measures helped ignite a home buying frenzy during the pandemic, but signs of a slowdown have quickly emerged as the Federal Reserve embarks on its most aggressive interest-rate-hiking cycle in two decades. According to data released last month, pending home sales slid for the sixth consecutive month in April to the lowest level in nearly a decade, while new home sales plunged nearly 17% from March. More recently, the average interest rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage spiked 5.5% to more than 6.2% this week—the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.

The Fed’s Wednesday rate hike is “likely to accelerate the slowing of the housing market” and eliminate construction jobs, says Mace McCain, chief investment officer at Texas-based Frost Investment Advisors. “We’ll be watching job openings and layoffs closely as the Fed continues to tighten into a slowing economy.”54

“[Fed Chair Jerome] Powell yesterday said the housing market is undergoing a reset, but it’s much more than that,” says Shepherdson, referring to comments Powell made after instituting the largest interest rate hike in 28 years on Wednesday. Speaking to reporters, the Fed chair suggested rising mortgage rates may not be long-lived, saying, “Home buyers need a reset. . . . Ideally, we do our work in a way where the housing market settles in a new place and housing and credit availability are at appropriate levels.”

I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business

Source: Housing Market ‘In Free Fall’ As New Construction Plummets—Here’s When ‘Reset’ Could Cool Prices

Critics by Dean Baker

Given other economic data it is certainly plausible that the rate of house price decline is accelerating. The unemployment rate has risen by more than 3 percentage points from its low in 2007, with involuntary part-time rising by another 2 percentage points. If there are twice as many people who fear unemployment or short hours as who actually end up unemployed or working short hours, then the weak economy would have reduced the number of potential homebuyers by 15 percent.

In addition, the plunge in house prices will also reduce demand, since it has destroyed home equity. By some estimates, close to 20 percent of mortgage holders are underwater. After deducting realtor fees and other closing costs, tens of millions of current homeowners would not have enough equity left to make the down payment on a new home. In this respect, many long-time homeowners will face the same difficulty as first-time homebuyers in raising the money needed for a down payment. With the sharp drop in the stock market destroying savings, few of these homeowners will have enough financial wealth to make a down payment.

The danger in this situation is that house prices will go into a downward spiral, with declining house prices destroying equity. The loss of equity reduces the number of potential buyers in the market, putting further downward pressure on prices. This sort of downward spiral will have further negative effects on the economy. As homeowners lose more equity, they will feel the need to cut back further on consumption. In addition, with more homes underwater, default rates will rise with the losses on each foreclosure increasing.

Unfortunately, there has been little real discussion to date of measures that could arrest this sort of price decline. A serious effort would focus on sustaining prices in markets where the bubble has already deflated. Efforts to sustain house prices in markets where the bubble is still deflating will almost certainly fail, and will result in the government wasting money on a failed effort.

However, in the markets where sale prices are in line with rents, it would be desirable for the government to try to prevent prices from overshooting. It can do this by directly intervening in the market, buying up foreclosed properties. This could be an effective policy that carries little downside risk. In fact, this policy certainly carries less risk than continuing to allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to guarantee mortgages in markets where the bubble is still deflating……

Related contents:

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Housing Market Boom ‘Is Over’ As New Home Sales Implode–Here’s What To Expect From Prices This Year 

Mortgage Demand Plunges To 22-Year Low As ‘Worsening’ Affordability Deters Buyers—But Here’s Why Prices Will Still Rise

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