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Consumer prices rose 8.6% in the 12 months ending in May, unexpectedly returning to record levels—and climbing at the quickest pace in four decades—amid an unprecedented surge in gas prices. Overall prices rose 1% from April—surpassing the 0.7% economists were expecting and much higher than the previous month’s increase of 0.3%, according to data released by the Labor Department on Friday.
The unexpected jump marks the largest 12-month increase since the period ending December 1981, according to the release, and comes after prices in April fell on a monthly basis for the first time since August. The overall increase was the result of broad upticks across shelter, food and gas prices, which jumped 4% after falling 6.1% in April, the government said.
“So much for the idea that inflation has peaked,” Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride said in emailed comments after the report, noting that increases were “nearly ubiquitous.” Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.6% in May against an expectation of 0.5%; shelter prices rose at the fastest pace in 31 years while food prices climbed at the largest rate in more than 41 years.
Stock futures immediately fell after the worse-than-expected report, with the S&P 500 reversing early gains and falling 1.6% below Thursday’s closing level in premarket trading. In another concerning sign, used car prices, which McBride says “had been the ray of hope for easing price pressures” after three straight months of declines, jumped 1.8% for the month of May.
Rising energy prices have elevated inflation readings during the pandemic to the highest level in decades, and stocks have struggled in recent months as Federal Reserve officials work to combat the surge by unwinding the central bank’s pandemic-era stimulus measures. After rising 27% in 2021, the benchmark S&P 500 has tumbled 16% this year.
Meanwhile, oil prices have surged more than 15% over the past month with demand expected to spike this summer—adding to supply concerns spurred by intensifying sanctions against Russia, one of the world’s top oil-producing countries. “Any hopes that the Fed can ease up on the pace of rate hikes after the June and July meetings now seem to be a long shot,” says McBride. “Inflation continues to rear its ugly head and hopes for improvement have been dashed again.”
Since Monday, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline has increased by nine cents to $4.71. According to new data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), total domestic gasoline stocks decreased by 700,000 bbl to 219 million bbl last week. Meanwhile, gasoline demand grew from 8.8 million b/d to 8.98 million b/d as drivers fueled up for Memorial Day weekend travel.
These supply and demand dynamics have contributed to rising pump prices. Coupled with volatile crude oil prices, pump prices will likely remain elevated as long as demand grows and supply remains tight. At the close of Wednesday’s formal trading session, WTI increased by 59 cents to settle at $115.26. Crude prices have increased amid supply concerns from the market as the European Union works to implement a 90 percent ban on Russian oil imports by the end of this year.
Crude prices were also boosted by increased demand expectations from the market after China lifted COVID-19 restrictions in Shanghai. Additionally, EIA reported that total domestic stocks decreased by 5.1 million bbl to 414.7 million bbl last week. As a result, the current storage level is approximately 13.5 percent lower than a year ago, contributing to rising crude prices.
I’m a senior reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business
Investors see central banks turning hawkish, even as economic growth slows. Photo: andrew kelly/Reuters
Nobody likes dropping cash, however Tuesday’s stock-price fall worries me greater than the headline of a 2% fall within the S&P 500 ought to. In itself, 2% is not any biggie: three days this yr had larger falls, and on common we now have had seven worse days a yr since 1964.
What bothers me is that the rise in bond yields that triggered the autumn was actually fairly small, and there may simply be much more to return. The ten-year Treasury yield rose solely 0.05 share level, taking it above 1.5%, and the 30-year rose barely extra to only above 2%. If that is the type of response we should always anticipate, then get out your tin hat. Yields must rise 4 occasions as a lot simply to get again to the place they had been in March.
Why, you would possibly fairly ask, are shares abruptly spooked by bond yields? Within the increase as much as March, shares and yields marched increased collectively, and for the previous 20 years increased yields have typically been higher for shares. The distinction is that investors see the central banks turning hawkish, whilst financial development slows, as a result of they will’t ignore excessive inflation.
As Pascal Blanqué,chief funding officer at French fund supervisor Amundi, places it, the worry is of an increase in charges pushed by inflation alone pushing central banks to behave, somewhat than an increase in charges pushed by financial development pushing central banks round. That is the mind-set that dominated funding till the late Nineteen Nineties. If it sticks, it marks a profound change.
In the long term, it could imply bonds would not present a cushion when inventory costs drop, making portfolios extra unstable. Within the quick time period, if the sharp rise in yields since the Federal Reserve meeting last week is the beginning of a development, then shares are in bother. On the flip aspect, if yields come again down, it is perhaps good for shares—because it was on Friday—somewhat than unhealthy, as has often been the case for a few many years.
To see the risk, suppose again to the spring, when yields had been marching increased. The outlook for inflation is about the identical (buyers are pricing it as excessive however short-term). The outlook for financial development is worse, which gives much less help for shares typically. However central banks have shifted stance from super-easy for just about perpetually to start out speaking about tightening.
That is the improper type of rise in bond yields. When yields had been rising as much as their March excessive of 1.75% for the 10-year Treasury, shares had been on a tear as a result of yields had been being pushed up by the prospect of upper financial development, and so stronger income. Overwhelmed-up worth shares and economically-sensitive sectors soared, whereas Huge Tech and different development shares, plus the dependable earners generally known as high quality shares, went sideways. After March, falling yields boosted development and high quality shares once more, whereas worth and cyclical went sideways.
This time, shares are reacting as they do when yields rise as a consequence of a central financial institution hawkish shift. Huge Tech, other growth stocks and quality suffered the most, as their excessive valuations make them reliant on projected earnings far sooner or later; increased yields make these future earnings much less enticing in contrast with proudly owning tremendous secure bonds. However with out the prospect of upper financial development to spice up earnings, low cost worth and cyclical shares additionally fell when yields rose, albeit by lower than development and high quality.
There’s enormous uncertainty in regards to the potential financial outcomes, so we shouldn’t simply assume that this week’s buying and selling sample will proceed. On the plus aspect, increased capital spending and the pandemic-driven adoption of know-how would possibly enhance productiveness greater than employee shortages push up labor prices. This could damp inflation and speed up development.
A retreat of Covid-19 might ease pressure on manufacturing and change spending again to companies. On the down aspect, hovering power prices and better costs from widespread provide bottlenecks would possibly hit households and weaken the financial system additional, whilst inflation stays excessive—the dreaded stagflation state of affairs.
We ought to be even much less assured about how central banks will react. I see twin triggers for the market’s reassessment. First, Fed coverage makers upped their “dot plot” predictions for rates of interest subsequent yr and the yr after, together with inflation. Second, the Financial institution of England, faced with an energy price crunch and higher-than-forecast inflation, warned of a potential price rise earlier than the tip of this yr. A slew of emerging-market central banks additionally raised charges, as did oil-producer Norway.
If the financial system reacts badly to increased yields, although, the Fed and Financial institution of England would possibly properly shift again to uber-dovishness. The withdrawal of emergency authorities spending measures in a lot of the world may also give the doves a brand new cause to maintain charges low.
Lastly, there’s uncertainty in regards to the market response itself. Possibly Tuesday’s bond strikes had been exacerbated by a mixture of momentum promoting and yields (which transfer in the other way to costs) rising above the brink of 1.5% on the 10-year and a pair of% on the 30-year.It may not be a coincidence that shares did properly on Friday as soon as the 10-year dropped again under 1.5%.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS
How involved are you in regards to the late September stock-price fall? Weigh in under. Spherical numbers shouldn’t matter, however typically do, whereas momentum is short-term. Tuesday’s transfer wasn’t pushed by an occasion on the day, so maybe the brand new narrative of hawkishness received stick. In spite of everything, it shouldn’t be that massive a deal to withdraw some financial help when inflation is greater than double the goal and coverage has by no means been simpler.
Given Huge Tech’s outsize share of the general market, buyers within the S&P 500 should be satisfied that if bond yields are going to maintain rising, it is going to be for the great cause of an accelerating financial system, not the unhealthy cause of sticky inflation pushing central banks to behave.
This summer, fresh from the West Coast of the U.S., a tech entrepreneur arrived in Dubai. In tow were his family, their family office and a fleet of 30 luxury cars. Everything a billionaire needs to start a new life in Dubai.
“It’s very safe here for my children. L.A. isn’t what it used to be. Crime has risen since Covid,” says the entrepreneur in his mid-50s who did not want to be named.
Finding a house with space for 30 cars was not easy, says Rohal Kohyar, marketing director of Luxhabitat Sotheby’s International Realty. Eventually a villa on its own private estate was identified. It had a basement that could be converted into a giant garage.
Nor was setting up the family office straightforward. Family offices on this scale manage hundreds of millions of dollars in private wealth, a task that requires a team of around 30 specialists.
“We’ve had to increase the salary for an E.A. (executive assistant) position for it to be attractive for people to come back to the U.A.E.,” says Zahra Clark, head of the MENA region for Tiger Recruitment.
During the pandemic many expats left Dubai for home. But with so many wealthy families now relocating to Dubai, recruiters are having to offer big incentives to lure investment professionals back to the Emirate.
Kohyar estimates 20 billionaires have bought property in Dubai this year, and Luxhabitat Sotheby’s International Realty has seen around a 300% increase in business compared with the same period last year.
According to the Dubai Land Department, the volume of property sales in Dubai increased by 136.5% in August compared to the same month last year. Villa sales were up 124% thanks in part to the sale of several Dh 100 million ($27 million) villas in Dubai Hills Grove area. “Normally we do one or two Dh 100 million ($27 million) deals a year. This year we’ve already done nine of them,” says Kohyar.
Real estate booms have come before, but this time is different, says Kohyar. “Now people are buying these luxury properties to actually live in them with their families.”
And they are in a rush, he says. Buyers are not waiting around for developments to be finished off. “They have to be ready now now.” The rich are suddenly in a hurry.
There is something else happening in Dubai that is different: People are coming from further afield. Kohyar says most of his clients are coming from major European countries, like the U.K., Switzerland and Germany. Of the super-rich setting up family offices in Dubai, Clark says most are from the U.S. and U.K. Other recruiters say there is a heightened interest from Singapore and Hong Kong.
Many were impressed with the way Dubai handled the pandemic. Vaccines were rolled out quickly among Dubai’s three million residents, P.C.R. tests are cheap and available, and the country only suffered a brief lockdown in March and April of 2020. “We’re busier now than pre-Covid. This will continue for as long as Europe, U.K. and the U.S. can’t get things right in how they’re dealing with the Covid situation,” says Clark.
But in reality, the pandemic hit Dubai very hard. Thousands of skilled expats started heading home as jobs dried up, the cost of living spiraled and they worried about being stranded abroad.
Dubai’s rulers suddenly realized the fallibility of their economy. Expats brought with them businesses, wealth and entertainment. Without them, Dubai’s own talented or entrepreneurial youth might follow them overseas.
In an effort to reverse this brain drain, the U.A.E. government started offering “golden visas” to high achievers. The 10-year residency visa was created in 2019, but since the beginning of this year it has been handed out to top students, successful entrepreneurs and award-winning actors.
In July, 45 students who scored more than 95% in their exams were granted golden visas. Raghad Muaiyad Asseid Danawi, a 17-year-old Jordanian student studying at Dubai’s Qatr Al Nada School was among them. “This is a great opportunity for me, my parents and siblings,” she told Khaleej Times.
That same month, the U.A.E. made 100,000 golden visas available to computer coders. Having lost out to Europe, and Silicon Valley, Dubai now wants to establish itself as a tech hub and has a target to establish 1,000 major digital companies over the next five years.
Alongside students and computer coders, the U.A.E. has also been handing out golden visas to actors. Yasmin Abdelaziz, a popular Egyptian actress was given a golden visa in July, joining a trio of Lebanese pop-stars-Najwa Karam, Marwan Khoury and Ragheb Alama-who have already been given the visa.
All of this makes Dubai more attractive for the wealthy. For Dh 10 million ($2.7 million) they too can have a golden visa. And, thanks to a new law introduced in February this year, (Decree Law 19), they can bring their family offices with them.
But perhaps the most enticing thing about U.A.E. for the lack of income tax. When other parts of the world, and especially the U.S. and U.K., are mooting wealth taxes to pay for the pandemic, Dubai suddenly looks much more attractive.
And, if they start moving their businesses or family offices here, they are more likely to stick around, says Kohyar: “This surge right now is more on a personal level, it’s more rounded, and we think this is going to be much more sustainable because people are moving here with their families and with their businesses so they’ll definitely stay.”
I am a freelance journalist with a decade’s experience covering business stories from around the world. When not reporting, I advise governments, businesses and
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As oil prices spike to a nearly three-year high, a bitter disagreement between international oil producers has shattered hopes for a deal to increase oil production this year—thereby threatening to further hike up rising oil and gas prices as a broad economic reopening looks to ramp up travel demand.
Key Facts
Following two days of fraught discussions last week, the group of oil producers known as OPEC+ called off an afternoon meeting Monday and set no date to meet again, effectively suspending a planned agreement to raise output by 2 million barrels per day from August to December
Two unnamed sources told Reuters the failed negotiations mean the expected production hikes this year will no longer occur.
The price of U.S. oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate—at about $75.31 a barrel—jumped 1.3% Monday after the news and has climbed 5% over the past week’s disagreement, while the price of the United Kingdom’s Brent Crude ticked up 1.1% and 4%, respectively.
The United Arab Emirates, which has invested heavily in its oil production capacity, refused to move forward with the deal because it would also extend oil production cuts through late 2022.
Though the UAE wants to raise its output unconditionally, Saudi Arabian oil producers, who supported the agreement, argued the extended output cuts are necessary to prevent excess oil supply that could tank prices.
The production increase was meant to help curb rising oil prices and buy producers time while they assess the risk of rapidly spreading variants in countries like India once again hurting demand and shuttering economies.
Big Number
60%. That’s how much the price of WTI oil has surged this year alone, while the price of Brent Crude has climbed about 50%.
Tangent
Oil prices crashed last year but recouped all their pandemic losses by March, and they’ve surged roughly 20% higher since. After cutting production by about 10 million barrels per day last year, oil producers are still supplying about 5.8 million fewer barrels per day than before the pandemic. Most recently, OPEC+ in early June agreed to increase oil output by 450,000 barrels per day starting this month.
Key Background
Despite the easing of lockdowns and an accelerating vaccine rollout, producers have been careful to ramp up supply after excess inventories drove prices down to negative territory for the first time in history last spring. That happened after an all-out price war erupted between oil-producing giants Russia and Saudi Arabia in March 2020—just as travel demand began to plummet during the coronavirus outbreak.
Costly-to-maintain storage tanks soon filled up with no buyers, and the price of one American oil futures contract plunged below zero in April 2020. OPEC and its allies agreed to cut production in order to stabilize prices amid the turmoil, but according to the International Energy Agency, those inventories are still being worked off to this day.
I’m a reporter at Forbes focusing on markets and finance. I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where I double-majored in business journalism and economics while working for UNC’s Kenan-Flagler Business School as a marketing and communications assistant. Before Forbes, I spent a summer reporting on the L.A. private sector for Los Angeles Business Journal and wrote about publicly traded North Carolina companies for NC Business News Wire. Reach out at jponciano@forbes.com. And follow me on Twitter @Jon_Ponciano
