The Federal Reserve’s Plan To Combat Inflation By Raising Interest Rates Carries The Risk of A Recession

A woman shops for chicken at a supermarket in Santa Monica, California, on September 13.Apu Gomes/AFP via Getty Images 

The last year of inflation has disproportionately hurt low-income and nonwhite families — those with the least flexibility in their monthly budgets to absorb higher prices. Now those same groups could be hurt by economic policymakers’ plan to tackle inflation through interest rate hikes, and in potentially longer-lasting ways.

Last month, leaders at the Federal Reserve predicted that, given their plans to continue raising rates, unemployment would rise from 3.7 percent (or 6 million people) to 4.4 percent by the end of 2023. In plain terms, this means an additional 1.2 million people would lose their jobs over the 15-month period. “I wish there was a painless way to do that,” Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell had said. “There isn’t.”

Other financial analysts projected even higher unemployment to result. Bank of America predicted unemployment would reach 5.6 percent by the end of 2023, translating to 3.2 million more people out of their jobs. Researchers at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in September that unemployment may need to reach as high as 7.5 percent to curb inflation, which would mean roughly 6 million people losing work.

The Federal Reserve raises interest rates to slow down consumption across the economy: As the cost of borrowing rises, the hope is that people buy fewer things, and prices stop spiraling higher. The latest data shows inflation still up roughly 8 percent compared to a year ago, and recent reporting in the New York Times suggests Fed leaders may even raise rates more aggressively into 2023 than they had previously envisioned.

The question is whether the Federal Reserve will be able to hit the brakes when they decide they’ve done enough — or whether it will be too late, and the economy will be hurtling downhill toward a recession that the Fed created but can’t control.

“One thing that’s a very open debate and a very important subtext to all the fights is the question of whether the Fed can actually increase unemployment just a little,” said Mike Konczal, the director of Macroeconomic Analysis at the Roosevelt Institute, a left-leaning think tank. “And with every million who lose their jobs, it’s that much harder to reintegrate them [into the labor force] later on.”

Stabilizing the economy, Konczal said, is like mending a garment. “You can pull at the threads, but if it tears you can’t just push it all back,” he said. “That’s certainly what keeps me very nervous, that the Fed is so worried it underreacted last year [to inflation] that now it might overreact.”

Some economic experts and journalists are asking if the current pain of inflation outweighs the suffering of a potential recession, and if there are less blunt tools the federal government could be leveraging instead.

“To have a smaller paycheck due to inflation, is that really worse than having no paycheck at all?” Today, Explained host Noel King asked Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari last week. “There’s not an easy answer,” Kashkari acknowledged, ultimately arguing that unemployment affects fewer people than inflation, and it’s easier for the government to target assistance to those who might be hurt.

But higher unemployment and recessions don’t just affect those who lose their jobs, and the assumption that the government would be willing or even able to provide targeted assistance to those pushed out of the labor market beyond the maximum six months of traditional (and relatively meager) unemployment benefits seems highly uncertain, given how Democrats’ more generous pandemic stimulus policies have been blamed for contributing to inflation in the first place.

Experts say the country still lacks the infrastructure to deliver more targeted aid, and with Democrats barely even mounting a defense of their pandemic assistance, whether there’s political oxygen — let alone technological capacity — to help those in a recession remains unclear.

On top of all this, if rate hikes do push millions more people out of work, those who would likely bear the biggest brunt of that job loss and take the longest to recover are the same groups suffering most now from inflation: low-income workers, workers with less education, and people of color.

Missing a “soft landing” means millions more people could lose their jobs

The workers who are most vulnerable to near-term layoffs work in construction and mortgage lending, and sell products like TVs and cars. These are so-called “interest-sensitive” industries, particularly responsive to changes in interest rates and borrowing costs. The next hit would be those working in firms that are particularly exposed to financial speculation — like traders and tech companies built around equity valuation.

The Federal Reserve’s goal is to achieve a so-called “soft landing” — meaning they want to lower inflation without throwing the economy into a recession.

Earlier this year Powell, the Fed chair, explained their goal was to make it harder for people to switch jobs, since job-switching and the fierce competition to hire workers were driving up wages. In this scenario, maybe a business eyeing higher interest rates would post fewer new jobs or decide not to fill vacant roles.

Maybe an employee would see the hiring landscape as less friendly and decide to stay put. “The idea is there’s a whole lot of activity happening that we don’t see by just looking at the unemployment rate,” said Konczal, of the Roosevelt Institute. “So in this scenario, where it becomes harder to switch to new jobs, the economy still cools without unemployment going up.”

Konczal says there’s some evidence that Powell’s “soft landing” argument has been bearing out over the past two months — the number of new job openings has slowed, as have the number of workers voluntarily switching to take another job. Wage data expected at the end of October should provide a clearer picture of where things stand.

But many experts are pessimistic that inflation can really come down without driving up unemployment, and say that if the Federal Reserve wants to see a genuine drop in prices it will have to force layoffs in less “interest-sensitive” industries, even if that increases the risk of a recession. Fewer people simply work in interest-sensitive fields like manufacturing than they did decades ago.

“That’s where face-to-face services like hospitality start to take the hit,” said Josh Bivens, the research director at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute. “Recessions can have big multiplier effects. Layoffs typically start in construction and then radiate onward, and things can get pretty bad if you have a big spiral.”

It’s harder for less educated, low-income, and nonwhite people to find work after layoffs

While some policymakers are trying to figure out if they could reduce inflation while keeping unemployment around 4 or 5 percent, other economists are sounding the alarm on what even this optimistic aggregate figure obscures — the unemployment rate for Black people is generally double that of white people, and for Hispanic people it’s typically 1.5 times the rate.

In one recent study, researchers found that lowering interest rates disproportionately helped the employment prospects for Black workers, women, and those without a high school diploma. It makes sense — if employers are facing increased competition for labor, they may be less likely to discriminate in the hiring process. Relatedly, over the past year, workers with criminal records and workers with disabilities were more in demand than they have been, as employers struggled to fill vacancies.

“It’s just a truism that when bad things happen in an economy, it’s the marginalized people, the people with less power, who are hurt fastest and most,” said Wendy Edelberg, the director of the Hamilton Project, an economics division within the Brookings Institution. “That should be fiscal policymakers’ laser focus, at all times but particularly in a downturn.”

The government is less likely to offer aid to workers who lose their jobs

When the pandemic hit, and millions lost their jobs or had their working hours reduced, the federal government responded with an array of financial policies to ease the pain such as expanded unemployment benefits, three rounds of stimulus checks, rental assistance, monthly cash deposits for parents with kids, hundreds of billions for state and local governments, and subsidies for businesses — big and small.

The investments kept millions out of poverty and evictions below historic averages, and are credited generally with helping the economy rebound much faster than following past downturns, and more quickly than other nations that had less robust stimulus policies.

But now Republicans have latched onto that federal aid as one of the top reasons inflation is at its highest point in four decades. They blame the Biden administration for putting too much money in people’s pockets, allowing them to spend too much and drive up prices. Some argue the American Rescue Plan was simply too big, or not targeted enough to those who really needed help. Economists disagree over how much the pandemic policies are to blame but Democrats, notably, are not touting their investments on the campaign trail, as voters cite inflation as a top election concern.

Republicans are expected to win control of the House, and Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy has for months attacked Democrats’ Covid policies for driving inflation. This raises the question: If the economy does spiral and workers lose their jobs or their workable hours, what kind of assistance might they expect to receive in that scenario?

“It’s one of the reasons I’m so worried about the Fed potentially overshooting, that we just won’t do that much to help people since we’re told that helping people too generously is what got us into this mess,” said Bivens of the Economic Policy Institute. “I think that’s wrong, but I’m still totally worried about this dynamic.” Bivens also warned that if Republicans control Congress, it might be in their interest to prolong economic hardship ahead of the next presidential election.

“If the Fed slips the economy into recession, what kinds of tools and political capital will be available? That’s a real concern that we aren’t talking about and aren’t being honest with ourselves,” said Mark Paul, an economist at Rutgers who has argued raising rates is the wrong response to the inflation crisis. “In the pandemic, policymakers reacted in a far better way than they have in our lifetime, where, rather than the economy taking 10 years to get to pre-Covid levels, it essentially took 1.5 years. The narrative now is that the government overshot, but the question is what were the other options and what would those have led to?”

Edelberg of the Hamilton Project said if there is a downturn, she hopes we can get “targeted relief” to those most in crisis, so that it only has modest effects on inflation. “We should do that with eyes wide open — knowing it will boost aggregate demand a little bit and that will be okay because a policy should have more than one objective,” she said.

Edelberg acknowledged the country isn’t exactly positioned to distribute targeted relief — the nation’s unemployment insurance system remains in need of serious upgrades. “We should be improving the system so we can find the people who need to get the money, so we don’t need to do things like send checks to everyone,” she said. “We do not have that infrastructure now because we haven’t really valued it.”

Slow wage growth affects even those who keep their jobs

It took 10 years after the Great Recession for wages to finally start rising, long after unemployment had gone back down. Part of this was fueled by state and local minimum wage increases, but part of it, experts believe, was due to a finally tightening economy.

Workers have enjoyed increased power over the past two years amid the even tighter post-pandemic labor market. Wages have gone up, especially for workers at the lower end of the income spectrum, and especially among those who switched their jobs. In 2021, wages grew by 4.5 percent on average, the fastest rate in almost four decades.

Now that we’re finally seeing broad-based gains in the economy, progressive economists warn that aggressive Fed policy could make those raises disappear. One major risk of a recession is slowed wage growth, which can impact everyone, not just those who lose their jobs. Even modest economic downturns can significantly reduce the chance of employers handing out raises.

The Federal Reserve has been explicit that its goal is to reach 2 percent inflation — meaning prices would continue to rise in that scenario, just hopefully more slowly and predictably. But if wages are not also rising, then families will still feel worse off and struggle to afford basic necessities.

“This wage growth angle is, by far, the most important reason why just looking at the rise of unemployment in a recession is a radical understatement of how many workers are adversely affected by recessions,” Bivens wrote in July.

One big fear for inflation watchers is the risk of a so-called “wage spiral” — a scenario where wage increases cause price increases, which in turn cause more wage increases. The concern isn’t baseless; wage spirals have happened before, most notably in the US in the 1970s, but it’s certainly not an inevitability. The labor movement was also much stronger four decades ago — over a third were unionized compared to 6 percent of private sector workers today — giving workers the kind of bargaining power they simply lack now.

Fears of a wage spiral have been dissipating somewhat. Wage growth is still higher than pre-Covid levels but has been slowing down this year. Earlier this month, researchers with the IMF concluded that wage spiral risks “appear contained” for now.

What else could be done?

Some economists and writers have warned that raising interest rates further is unlikely to curb some of the root causes of inflation — such as the war in Ukraine and factory shutdowns — and that inflation would come down next year regardless as supply chains get back on track.Others say more attention should be on things like investigating corporations for raising their prices far beyond the cost increases for raw materials.

The House Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy held a hearing on these concerns in late September, and three Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill in May that would seek to ban price gouging during market disruptions. Dean Baker, an economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, pointed to what he called “an extraordinary increase in profit shares in a relatively short period” — rising from 23.9 percent in 2019 to 26 percent in the second quarter of this year.

Some centrist and conservative analysts have framed higher unemployment and a possible recession as simply a necessary if regrettable stage in the life cycle of an economy, almost like a biological reset. “The Fed’s rate hikes will hurt,” said the right-leaning Washington Post editorial board. “That’s unavoidable.”

But “the idea that severe recessions are necessary is absolutely not true,” said Konczal. “That’s the whole point of having a Federal Reserve and macroeconomics. And the idea that recessions are somehow regenerative and healing to the economy is also wrong.”

Whether one needs higher-than-expected unemployment or lower-than-existing GDP to bring down inflation is not really clear. “People are not sure if that’s true,” said Konczal. “It’s a small sample size, and we have only so many economies that you can test.”

Others have argued that fiscal policy — as opposed to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy — demands more attention to combat inflation. (Fiscal policy refers to a government’s decision to tax and spend, whereas monetary policy is about a central bank’s control over the flow of money and credit.) Fiscal policy can be more targeted, but it can also be difficult to pass through the legislative process, and take far longer to have an economic effect.

For example, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) has called for a “production agenda” that would involve new investments in child care, housing, and community college to bring down prices and train Americans to work. These strategies, if successful, would take years however to trickle out. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) similarly argued this past summer that Congress investing in child care would help bring more parents into the workforce, which could counteract inflation, though pouring more money into child care amid a worker shortage, conversely, could also worsen it.

In August, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) introduced a bill that would place price controls on utilities, food, and housing, bolster the scope of the White House supply chain disruption task force, and authorize better data collection on corporate profiteering. (Price controls are controversial, and led to soaring prices after they were lifted in the 1970s.)

Paul, the Rutgers economist, helped advise Bowman on his bill and told Vox that he believes the Federal Reserve is not taking seriously its dual congressional mandate for both price stability and maximum employment. “Right now the Fed seems to be focused on price stability at all costs,” Paul said. “Full employment be damned.”

Source: The Federal Reserve’s plan to combat inflation by raising interest rates carries the risk of a recession – Vox

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Why Fast Food Is Racing To Ditch The Dining Room

Taco Bell’s new Defy restaurant is pure drive-thru. Taco Bell

Five hours into a long drive through New England last week, I needed coffee. I pulled up to a Dunkin’ in Gorham, New Hampshire, parked, and got out of the car. Mistake. In the donut-scented interior, I learned that this Dunkin’ wasn’t taking orders in the store—only at the drive-thru and via the app. Reluctantly, I downloaded Dunkin’, selected a large cold brew, tapped in my credit card number, and watched in silence as two workers prepared and placed the coffee on the largely obsolete counter.

Seven days later, I got an email—“Are Your Cravings Calling?”—that left me unsure if I’d signed up for DD or AA. I was part of the Dunkin’ digital universe now, which is right where the company, owned by Atlanta-based Inspire Brands, wants me. Certainly more than in the actual store. Last August, Dunkin’ opened its first “digital” location on Beacon Street in Boston. There are no cashiers, replaced by touchscreens and mobile ordering, and no seats or tables.

Dunkin’ is far from alone. Name a fast-food restaurant and the odds are the company has recently developed a branch without any restaurant at all. Chipotle’s first “Digital Kitchen,” which opened in upstate New York in 2020, has no dining room. A branch that opened last year in the Cleveland suburbs doesn’t even let customers inside the store.

This summer, Taco Bell opened something it calls Taco Bell Defy, which is not a restaurant at all but a purple taco tollbooth powered by QR code readers and dumbwaiters that bring the food down from a second-story kitchen. The operation is, by most accounts, astoundingly efficient. Wingstop’s “restaurant of the future” doesn’t have seats or take cash.

What’s driving this trend? Partly savings on real estate and labor. But mostly it’s a response to consumer preference. Pushed by pandemic restrictions and pulled by the increasing ease of mobile transactions, customers have rushed into drive-thrus, delivery, and mobile ordering. Even with coronavirus fears in most Americans’ rear-view mirror, Chipotle’s in-restaurant sales now account for just a third of its business. At Panera, which opened its first to-go-only locations this summer, that figure is under 20 percent.

“It’s a way to cater to changing customer-order behaviors,” explains Emma Beckett, an editor at Restaurant Dive, an industry publication. While smaller store footprints and radical new designs are mostly reserved for new locations, she says, the arms race is on to remodel older stores with drive-thru lanes. “Everyone wants double or triple drive-thrus, so those parcels are becoming competitive, because there are only so many corner lots that can accommodate that.”

Everything is moving in the direction of Checkers and Rally’s, two drive-thru chains that were early to this idea. Take Salad And Go, the nine-year-old budget salad chain that now has dozens of locations in Arizona and Texas. Salad And Go has no inside at all, nor does it usually bother with picnic benches or even parking spots, like Sonic. Founder Roushan Christofellis has said the stores’ “microfootprints” are the secret to their super-affordable salads. As a bonus, no public interior space means you don’t need to build customer parking.

Wherever Americans are eating, it isn’t inside fast-food joints. To meet this shift, some chains, like Wendy’s and Qdoba, have embraced “ghost kitchens,” unmapped, closed-door facilities where food for delivery might be prepared for a dozen different brands at once.

Increasingly, the logic behind ghost kitchens is finding its way into public-facing retail design too. Last year, I wrote about how the rise in digital ordering was messing up the fast-casual experience, as restaurant workers struggled under a workload that depended little on the number of customers in the store. The good news is they are working on solving the problem. The bad news is: I am the problem.

Like the parallel remote-work phenomenon, the rise of what McDonald’s calls the Three D’s—digital, drive-thru, and delivery—may reflect an ongoing social atomization as the shared spaces that emptied out during the pandemic are slow to fill back up, to the point that walk-up, dine-in customers like me are no longer the focus, and might even be a nuisance. Often lauded as a vital “third space” for seniors, teenagers, and families in communities that lack friendly public spaces, McDonald’s unveiled a concept store in 2020 that has no seating at all.

It does, however, have algorithms inside the My McDonald’s App. “Imagine what can happen once we start to know, ‘Oh, Brian’s coming to the restaurant,’ and what we can do,” McDonald’s digital engagement head Lucy Brady told Wired in 2020. It’s like a 21st-century version of the waitress asking if you’ll have the usual.

On the other hand, to-go orders might not be replacing meals with friends as much as they’re eating into grocery-store spending. In the 2010s, American restaurant spending surpassed grocery spending for the first time, a dramatic shift from the 1990s when U.S. consumers spent $3 at the grocery for every $2 at the restaurant. “Breakfast spending is the fastest-growing daypart,” one industry analyst observed, “and that’s the ultimate utility. No one is sitting down for breakfast.”

That’s probably what’s motivating coffee-centric chains, among which Panera isn’t the only one scrambling to scrap seating areas. As Jonathan Maze wrote this summer in Restaurant Business Online, “Dutch Bros, which went public last year, rocketed to become the third-largest coffee chain with a model that features no seating. The fifth largest is Scooters Coffee, which is also a drive-thru-only concept. The fourth largest, Minneapolis-based Caribou, is focusing all its attention on growing drive-thru-only locations.” The occasion for Maze’s piece was the first drive-thru-only Tim Horton’s.

Something similar is happening at Starbucks. Despite its roots as an urban gathering place whose comfy chairs, Wi-Fi, and bathrooms invite customers to linger, on-and-off closures related to COVID have helped accelerate a business shift toward mobile, delivery, and drive-thru, which now make up almost three quarters of the brand’s U.S. revenue. And that’s just fine with Starbucks brass: Those customers make bigger purchases than the ones who walk in and order at the counter.

Starbucks opened its first “Starbucks Pickup” store in 2019, in Manhattan, and the model has since expanded to cities across the country. “These stores center on convenience and illustrate one way we can meet evolving customer behaviors in dense, urban locations,” a spokesperson says. As for Starbucks’ role as social infrastructure, the company has said it is “creating the digital third space.” “We plan to create a series of branded NFT collections, the ownership of which initiates community membership, and allows for access to exclusive experiences and perks,” chief marketing officer Brady Brewer wrote in May. Your Viennese coffee house could never.

You can see the zeitgeist in the rise of another coffee chain, Blank Street, whose New York locations rewards mobile pre-orders and often eschew seating altogether in favor of tiny, low-rent retail footprints. Most don’t have bathrooms, but then Howard Schultz has said Starbucks may reverse its own open-bathroom policy, citing problematic customer behavior. After closing a store in Philadelphia due to “safety” issues, Starbucks’ new Center City location has neither seating nor restrooms.

Perhaps we shouldn’t take these seatless concept stores too seriously. After all, they represent only a tiny experiment compared to the nation’s tens of thousands of existing fast-food restaurants, which, the Dunkin’ in Gorham, New Hampshire excepted, continue to offer old-fashioned thrills such as ordering with a human cashier and sitting at a table to eat. And let’s be honest, fast food’s appeal has always been the food—not the human connection and certainly not the ambiance.

“Pre-pandemic, about 50 percent of food was consumed on premise and 50 percent was drive-thru and delivery,” said Mark Landini, a retail designer who has worked with McDonald’s and other brands. “Because of the pandemic, that’s now changed to 20-80.” Landini specializes in eye-catching designs, and he suggested that further streamlining the fast-food experience might not be good for workers or, in the long run, brands.

(Or, obviously, his firm.) “I think ghost kitchens are a big mistake,” he said. “You’re effectively putting your business in someone else’s hands and the less a brand can manifest its personality, the less you’ll experience it emotionally. If you’re going to reduce that physical interaction for operational economics, or to reach a broader audience, the long-term effect is your product becomes a commodity on someone else’s shelf.”

Then again, the futuristic Taco Bell Defy and its ilk—as well as these companies’ earnings reports—show us where Americans are going, or more precisely, how. It’s not just mobile apps that are making these changes attractive, but an older technology that also promised both freedom and a kind of anti-social isolation: the automobile. The pandemic-fueled rise of the drive-thru just isn’t going away. Maybe it’s because remote work has pushed fast-food spending into suburban, car-dependent locations.

Maybe it’s because sitting down at Chipotle only seemed like a good idea relative to returning to the office, but nothing beats the kitchen table. Maybe it’s because there are more fun things to do at home, online, than ever before. One way or another, vehicle miles traveled are back to where they were in 2020, even though many white-collar workers aren’t in the office five days a week. They’re still going to the drive-thru, though.

Source: Fast-food chains like Taco Bell, Dunkin’, and Panera are ditching dining areas for drive-thrus and mobile ordering.

Critics by deliverect

we’ll discuss some key challenges of digital ordering and online food delivery for restaurants and how to address them.

1. You punch in delivery orders manually, losing time and sometimes making errors 

Many restaurants assign one of their employees to online orders, accepting delivery and takeout orders on the aggregators’ tablets and entering them in your restaurant’s point-of-sale system by hand. This manual task, which is both time and labor intensive, creates a delay in the order flow.

By automating the online order process, you can eliminate human error and free up your staff’s time, to focus on improving the customer experience. With tickets printed in the kitchen in a consistent format, your delivery operation will run much smoother.

2. The more online ordering platforms, the more tablet mayhem

When you deliver food, working with multiple third-party food ordering players is a smart strategy to scale up your business. Each delivery service your restaurant works with will send you their own device, usually a tablet, with platform-specific software.

You can solve this issue by integrating your delivery orders into your point-of-sale system, automatically pulling in all your orders to your POS.

3. Managing your menus across different online ordering platforms takes up a LOT of time

Never before have there been so many restaurants offering delivery and takeout. Therefore it’s crucial to stand out, and one sure-fire way to do this is with a menu adapted for delivery that is clear, attractive, and customizable.

Fortunately, it’s possible to quickly and efficiently manage multi-location and multi-platform menus from one screen. Deliverect’s omnichannel restaurant solution comes with an easy menu builder that enables you to create, duplicate and automate menu items, and publish them to multiple channels with a few clicks.

4. You don’t have real-time sales data, and you don’t know what’s been sold online

Analyzing your sales data is one of the best and fastest ways to optimize and grow. If your restaurant is available on multiple online ordering platforms, however, it can be challenging to get a complete overview of all your online sales. 

Seamless integration between your online sales channels and your POS system is all it takes to solve this pain. Connecting all your online ordering platforms to your point of sale means you’ll see all your sales data in real-time, on one screen.

5. Customers can order out-of-stock items because your stock isn’t synced with your online channels

Replenishing your inventory can be a complicated job if your stock isn’t automatically updated in your restaurant inventory software or point-of-sale system after an order has been placed online.

Many modern POS systems already include stock management, but to sync with your online sales platforms, restaurants need an active POS integration.

6. Your online orders aren’t in your POS – you’re not VAT compliant

Hospitality businesses are subjected to rigid tax regulations worldwide. In some countries, restaurants and catering services are required to work with a registered cash system – the so-called “white cash register” to avoid fraud.

Automate your online order flow to ensure your online orders, no matter which platform they come from will be sent to your POS system without you having to do anything. It’s that simple!

7. Your restaurant is crowded with riders

Food delivery couriers need to make as many deliveries as possible to earn a living. For them, there’s nothing more frustrating than waiting for a meal that’s not ready for pickup.

One solution is to rethink your restaurant’s design and flow to accommodate specially designed waiting areas for riders. You may also want to think about a screen displaying order statuses that are ideally placed in your delivery pickup area. This will increase the efficiency of your pickup.

8. Customers don’t find your restaurant in the app

Cities like London, Madrid, Amsterdam, Dubai, and New York count thousands of eateries with delivery services. With many of those signed up with platforms like Uber Eats, Postmates, Talabat, and Deliveroo, the number of in-app restaurant listings, and thus competition, is huge.

Faster preparation times, faster delivery times, higher acceptance and online rates,… in short, a better delivery performance will lead to more positive customer reviews and a better position of your listing.

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Dow Falls Over 300 Points Despite Solid Jobs Report, Stocks Post Third Straight Week Of Losses

The stock market tanked on Friday despite the August jobs report coming in slightly lower than expected and dropping significantly from last month, which did little to ease investor concerns about more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve plunging the economy into a recession.

Stocks gave up gains in the afternoon and turned negative: The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.1%, over 300 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite 1.3%.

Stocks initially opened higher after the U.S. economy added 315,000 jobs in August—slightly under the 318,000 expected by analysts and far lower than the 526,000 new jobs added in July, according to data released by the Labor Department on Friday.

Though unemployment ticked up to 3.7% from 3.5%, the jobs market has remained strong despite slowing economic growth this year, which Fed officials have pointed to as evidence that the economy can withstand more aggressive rate hikes without falling into a recession.

The labor market is “less tight than it was in July” and “moving in the right direction for policymakers,” meaning that overall this is a “good report for those concerned about inflationary impacts of a tight labor market,” says Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial.

Despite the solid jobs data, stocks added to losses this week and continued to fall amid hawkish comments from Fed officials that the central bank will continue to raise interest rates well into next year and it would take some time before a reversal in monetary policy.

Many Wall Street experts now warn that the prospect of the Fed raising rates “higher for longer” could well spook markets into retesting their June lows, especially as September is historically the market’s worst month on record.

“The market is in a bad place in general – rising interest rates and too high inflation,” says Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance. “The Fed is somewhat on autopilot for the near future – they will be hiking rates no matter what – but to the extent that the economic data comes in like this, it could take some pressure off of them in future meetings.”

Stocks finished higher on Thursday to kick off the month of September, which has historically been a rough one for markets. Still, all three major averages are set to post their third negative week in a row, continuing a slump that began in mid-August. Optimism about a potential Fed pivot, which was driving the rally earlier this summer, has faded—especially after comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell last week, who reiterated aggressive rate hikes for the foreseeable future.

I am a senior reporter at Forbes covering markets and business news. Previously, I worked on the wealth team at Forbes covering billionaires and their wealth.

Source: Dow Falls Over 300 Points Despite Solid Jobs Report, Stocks Post Third Straight Week Of Losses

Critics:

Investors parsed through the latest jobs report showing U.S. hiring remained elevated in May. Nonfarm payrolls added 390,000 jobs last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists expected 328,000 jobs added, according to Dow Jones. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in May, according to the BLS, slightly less than the consensus estimate of 0.4% and in line with April’s pace.

“Good news is bad news. … It reminds us that the Fed is still the swing factor, at least in investor emotion,” Mark Hackett, Nationwide’s chief of investment research, said. Traders selling stocks likely reacted to the move higher in rates with fears of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy at the forefront. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed after the report, above the 2.9% level.

“Numbers this strong would likely reverse any hopes the Fed would consider a pause in rate hikes after the June/July increases, because it would signal the labor market remains very tight,” Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report said. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester later Friday said she supports aggressive rate hikes ahead, as she has not seen enough evidence that inflation has peaked.

“I don’t want to declare victory on inflation before I see really compelling evidence that our actions are beginning to do the work in bringing down demand in better balance with aggregate supply,” Mester said on CNBC’s “The Exchange.” Investors fear higher rates could slow the economy too much and tip it into a recession. Higher yields also discount the value of future earnings, which can make stocks look less attractive, especially growth and tech names.

Technology shares retreated Friday amid the rising rates. Micron Technology fell 7.2%, and Nvidia lost about 4.5%. Mega-cap tech names Google-parent Alphabet and Meta Platforms declined roughly 2.6% and 4.1%, respectively. Apple pulled back about 3.9% after a cautious research note from Morgan Stanley. The firm said slowing App Store growth could hurt the company in the near-term.

Tesla shares fell 9.2% after Reuters reported, citing an internal email, that CEO Elon Musk wants to cut 10% of jobs at the car maker. According to Reuters’ report, Musk also said in the email that he has a “super bad” feeling about the economy. The comments from Musk come after warnings from other bellwether companies this week. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Wednesday said he expects an economic “hurricane” ahead amid the war in Ukraine and the Fed’s tightening regime.

On Thursday, Microsoft cut its earnings and revenue guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter, citing unfavorable foreign exchange rates. This week’s decline comes in spite of a strong session Thursday and after a winning prior week. “We have transitioned pretty demonstrably from a ‘buy the dip’ world last year to a ‘sell the rally.’ Last week was a rally, this week is a bit of a pullback. Yesterday was a rally, today’s a pullback,” Nationwide’s Hackett said. “It’s very hard to have consecutive weeks or consecutive days of strength because there’s so much worry that people use any piece of good news as a chance to sell,” he added.

Companies in focus
  • Tesla Inc. TSLA, -2.51% Chief Executive Elon Musk said Monday he is aiming to get the electric-vehicle maker’s self-driving technology ready by year-end, and said he hopes it could quickly be in wide release in the U.S. and even Europe depending on regulatory approval, Reuters reported. Shares finished down by 1.1%.
  • Shares of Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. BBBY, -0.92% closed 25% higher and bucked the broader market’s selloff as meme-stock investors expressed optimism ahead of the home-goods retailer’s strategic update.
  • On Monday, Boeing Co. BA, -1.20% announced an order from United Parcel Service Inc. UPS, -0.28% for eight more 767 Freighters. That would bring package delivery giant UPS’s fleet of 767 Freighters to 108. Boeing shares ended 0.5% higher.
Other assets
  • The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY was flat.
  • Oil futures rallied, with October WTI crude CLV22, +0.44% rising $3.95, or 4.2%, to settle at $97.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Meanwhile, gold futures for December delivery lost a dime to settle at $1,749.70 an ounce.
  • Bitcoin BTCUSD, -0.01% rose 0.9% to trade at $20,184.
  • The Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP, +2.04% finished down by 0.8%, while London markets were closed for the summer bank holiday.
  • The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.05% ended 0.1% higher, while the Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.74% finished down by 0.7% in Hong Kong and Japan’s Nikkei 225 NIK, -0.04% dropped 2.7%.

Related News:

Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Rose To 3.7% In August As Layoffs Continue To Spike

The Stock Market’s Summer Rally Is Over And Investors Should Prepare For A Rough September

Stocks Break Losing Streak Even As Investors Brace For The Market’s Worst Month

Market Experts Predict Further Volatility As Fed Rate Hikes Leave ‘Little Room’ For Soft Landing

Wall Street pros issue warning on stocks. Here’s what they say to buy instead

Bank of America sees ‘no real signs of a bull market,’ calls for S&P 500 to fall to 3,600

A risk-free 2-year Treasury now yields double the average corporate dividend, luring income seekers

Bonds enter first bear market in at least 30 years

‘The psychology has changed so quickly’: Why stock-market lows may be retested as S&P 500 enters its weakest stretch of year

Barron’s: Giant Fund Sells Apple, Tesla, Microsoft Stock. Here’s What It Bought.

Silver is at a 2-year low, but it’s not gold that will determine what happens next, this analyst says

Recession or Not, There Will Be Pain

Markets Brief: Stocks End Week Down; Employment Report Brings Some Good News

Beware of Buying Low in a Bear Market

4 Dangerous Assumptions That Could Hurt Your Retirement Plan

Has Holding Cash Helped Equity Fund Managers?

Flows Into ETFs Hold Steady as Markets Wobble in August

Weekly Wrap: The Witch of Wall Street, Buying the Dips, and Dangerous Retirement Plan Assumptions

3 of the Best Stocks to Buy Before Labor Day

Signify Health Shares Rise 6% on WSJ Report of Advanced Talks with CVS | Dow Jones

ADRs End Mostly Lower; ArcelorMittal, Benitec Biopharma Trade Actively | Dow Jones

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April Retail Sales Rise 0.9%, Even as Consumers Confront Sky-High Inflation

Americans ramped up their spending at retail stores in April, a sign that consumers are still weathering the inflationary storm even as prices continue to hover near a 40-year high.

Retail sales, a measure of how much consumers spent on a number of everyday goods, including cars, food and gasoline, rose 0.9% in April from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was in line with expectations from Refinitiv economists, but it marked a noted slowdown from the upwardly revised 1.4% gain in March.

The so-called core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services and are most closely correlated with the consumer spending aspect of the nation’s gross domestic product, rose 1% in April.

People walk through a shopping area in Manhattan on June 7, 2021, in New York City. (Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The April advance – which is not adjusted for inflation, meaning that consumers may be spending the same but getting less bang for their buck – was led by a burst in spending at bars and restaurants as well as on vehicles, clothing, furniture and electronics.

Receipts at gas stations actually dropped last month as prices at the pump briefly fell from highs recorded in March. However, gas prices have since notched a new record, climbing to a national average of $4.52 per gallon, up from $3.04 one year ago.

“American consumers continued to spend more at retail stores in April, despite inflation as lower gasoline prices helped to boost spending on discretionary items,” said Tuan Nguyen, a U.S. economist at RSM. “But it won’t last long as gasoline prices reached a record high in May.”

Signage displays fuel prices at a Shell gas station in San Francisco, California, on March 7, 2022.  (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

There are other signs that inflation is beginning to weigh on consumers: Walmart reported earlier Tuesday that its profit took a beating in the first quarter of the year as the company grappled with soaring prices for everyday goods like food and fuel and higher costs from snarled supply chains.

The data comes as consumers face the worst inflation spike in decades The government reported last week that the consumer price index climbed 8.3% in April from the previous year, close to a four-decade high. The reading was much higher than economists expected and underscores that inflationary pressures in the economy remain strong.

Rising inflation is eating away at strong wage gains that American workers have seen in recent months: Real average hourly earnings decreased 0.1% in April from the previous month, as the inflation increase eroded the 0.3% total wage gain, according to the Labor Department. On an annual basis, real earnings actually dropped 2.6% in April.

Source: April retail sales rise 0.9%, even as consumers confront sky-high inflation | Fox Business

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Why The Dow Plunged More Than 1,000 Points? Should I Wait For Stocks To Sink Lower

What a difference a day makes. Fresh off the best percentage gain for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.30% since Nov. 9, 2020, the blue-chip index got clobbered, along with the rest of the stock market, including the S&P 500 SPX, -0.57% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -1.40%.

Not even U.S. Treasurys were safe, with the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.127% climbing above 3% as prices fall.

Some experts attributed Wednesday’s rally to a statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that a 75-basis-point increase wasn’t being actively considered by policy makers at the central bank at coming meetings.

The remark came after the Fed on Wednesday delivered the first half-percentage-point interest-rate hike, as had been widely expected, since 2000, in the final months of President Bill Clinton’s second term.

The Fed has been hiking rates to combat a surge in inflation that materialized in the aftermath of the COVID-19 shutdowns and dislocations, and which has been exacerbated by bloody conflict in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion in late February.

Some industry watchers peg Thursday’s selloff partly to fears that inflation will continue to dog the economy in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world.

Data on Thursday showed that the productivity of American workers and businesses sank at an 7.5% annual pace in the first quarter, marking the biggest drop since 1947, amid supply shortages and production bottlenecks.

“It was a setback for our Roaring 2020s scenario of a technology-led productivity growth boom offsetting the chronic shortage of labor,” according to Yardeni Research, a provider of global investment strategy founded by Ed Yardeni, a MarketWatch contributor.

Meanwhile, Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in New York, said the day’s action reflects “a continuation of 2022’s market roller coaster of high volatility, with this session’s strong spiral downward erasing yesterday’s gains.”

Bassuk told MarketWatch that “investors are selling today on renewed concerns regarding the plethora of continued uncertainties.”

The AXS CEO pointed to tensions with China, Russia’s siege in Ukraine, as well as a mixed bag of corporate earnings and nagging concerns about COVID-19 hamstringing a more powerful recovery in parts of the world.

Recession fears and inflation worries have been the centerpiece of the current bout of bearishness on Wall Street. “There’s no doubt that inflation, rising rates and volatility will continue to characterize the market environment in [the second quarter] and beyond,” Bassuk said.

“What is really interesting about these markets is that there are these every-other-day changes in either direction where investors are outrageously bullish, or outrageously bearish the next day,” said Sylvia Jablonski, chief executive and chief investment officer at Defiance ETFs in New York.

Indeed, MarketWatch’s Bill Watts wrote that, with the exception of 2020, the S&P 500 has already topped or is on track to exceed annual totals of 2%-or-greater moves for every year stretching back to 2011.

“Inflation may have peaked, growth may be slowing, but it is still positive. The consumer is still spending, [and] employment is at all-time highs,” she said, going on to point to the up to $2 trillion in excess savings said to have been amassed during the pandemic.

Market Extra (July 2021):

The volatile state of the market is stoking confusion about the outlook. Is this time to jump into stocks, or should investors wait for a better entry point? Or should we heed billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones’s advice and stay clear of traditional markets altogether?

History suggests that you can’t time the market and that, over a long period, the market wins. The big question is what’s your time frame what’s your tolerance for pain?

The slump in bonds, with yields rising as prices fall, is complicating matters for some investors. Treasurys, notably the benchmark 10-year U.S. government bond TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.127%, traditionally are seen as a refuge in times of uncertainty, but they also have been undone given the Fed’s current rate-hike plan, which has led to selling in bonds in the hope of richer yields to come.

Source: Why the Dow plunged more than 1,000 points? Should I wait for stocks to sink lower? Here’s what some pros think. – MarketWatch

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