Five Types Of Talent Behind The Great Resignation

Last summer, Shannon Harrell left a marketing role at Nestlé to work in the then booming telehealth industry at Teladoc Health. Several months later, as her new employer’s stock was falling amid disappointing results, Harrell switched her LinkedIn status to “open to work.” By April, she’d been recruited to run strategic communications and channel marketing at pet insurer PetPartners.

“I saw the writing on the wall,” Harrell says. “The growth of that category looked a little uncertain, so I was—as anyone would be—concerned.”

Harrell is what McKinsey would call a traditionalist, one of five types of talent that has spurred The Great Resignation—and may be key to defeating it. In a new study released Wednesday, the consultancy analyzed data and surveyed more than 13,000 workers worldwide to determine what motivated people in different industries to quit over the past two years in order to figure out what might make them stay.

One thing that cuts across all types of workers is a persistent sense of optimism. Three-quarters of respondents felt it would not be difficult to get a job that’s comparable to, or better than, their current role. “People are confident enough that they don’t even need the other job in hand when they do move,” says Aaron De Smet, a senior partner and co-author of the report. “They’re like, ‘I’ll just quit and go find another job,’ and they’re not worried about it.”

Quitting Trend That Just Won’t Quit

With record-low U.S. unemployment and 11.3 million open jobs, it’s easy to understand the optimism. High demand has enabled more than half of those who quit to not only move into new jobs but also move into new industries. Only 6% made what could be considered a lateral move within their industry. The public and social sector had the greatest attrition rate in the survey, with 57% leaving the sector, while healthcare and pharma had the least.

What matters is that many of them aren’t returning to their former industries or even the job world anytime soon. Of those who quit without a new job in hand, only 47% have returned to the workforce, with 29% returning to traditional full-time employment. “Some companies are waiting for those people to come back,” De Smet says. “And they might be waiting a long time.”

The Five Personas of Quitters

That means employers have to recognize who is open to new jobs—and figure out what it will take to hire and retain them. In the study, McKinsey identified five personas:

  • Traditionalists — Like PetPartners’ Harrell, these are career-oriented workers who are willing to make some trade-offs for the right price. They’re less likely to quit without a job to go to and more likely to stay if they get enough money.
  • Do-it-yourselfers — They emerged as the largest cohort in the study, a group that tends to value flexibility, meaningful work and compensation. Typically 25 to 45, they can be self-employed or doing gig work or part-time jobs. They want flexibility and a friendly work environment.
  • The caregivers and others — These are the people at home but are wanting more. Typically 18 to 44, with more women than men, they decided to sit it out at home and are looking for roles with flexibility that allow them to still continue their caregiving and responsibilities outside their jobs.
  • The idealists — Typically a younger cohort of students and younger part-timers, 18 to 24, this persona wants flexibility, strong organization culture and clear career advancement trajectories. They ranked belonging to an inclusive and welcoming community more highly than the other personas.
  • The relaxers — These are a mix of retirees, those not looking for work and others who might return to traditional work if the job is right. They want meaningful work and balance. Many retired workers are increasingly returning to work following a surge in retirement during the onset of the pandemic.

To appeal to these cohorts and address the attrition-attraction issue, companies need to double down on their value propositions—both traditional, which includes pay, title, benefits and career paths, and nontraditional, which involves flexibility, company culture and personalization, McKinsey outlines.

“There are some super talented people out there sitting on the bench because the offer is still the traditional offer,” De Smet says.

Source: Five Types Of Talent Behind The Great Resignation

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Sustainable Payments The Next Frontier

In providing the fuel and rails for the modern economy, the potential for payments to impact on sustainability cannot be underestimated. As rapid, global digitization continues to transform all aspects of our lives, payments are pivotal: almost every digital activity relies on a payment system.

As a result, there is a responsibility incumbent on payment providers in funding and increasing awareness to sustainability.

Amongst both businesses and consumers, there is also a greater awareness of the role of sustainable finance, which is playing an increasingly critical part in influencing investment decisions. ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) initiatives undertaken by payments can play a huge role in influencing these decisions.

Why is a sustainable payments industry important?

Firstly, necessity. The pandemic has significantly changed the structure of the economy, causing a decline of physical cash and digitizing businesses – all contributing to the reduction of reliance on carbon emitting processes.

The second reason is consumers. Regardless of industry, consumers are increasingly choosing businesses that share their environmental goals.

Consumers are also influencing investor pressure. Businesses are now looking to invest in environmentally friendly ways: two out of three French and German retail investors say they will invest in sustainable ways even if there is cost involved2. This is also visible in the green bond market, in 2022 green bond issuance has increased 49% year-on-year, with the market set to hit $1 trillion globally in 20213.

The third reason is regulatory. Increase in regulations, especially within Europe, is driving transparency in this space, with change being brought about thanks to the Paris agreement, COP 26 and other targeted regulations.

Challenges in the sustainable payments industry

  • Greenwashing
    Different standards, definitions and regulations can cause confusion and allow ‘greenwashing’. Incoming regulations will force industry standards and transparency, but rising focus on greenwashing is driving financial institutions to take a more cautious to ESG-linked products and solutions.
  • Geopolitical tensions
    World events can have a ‘butterfly effect’, increasing cost of living. This can result in challenges such as an impact on consumer demand, and the likelihood of consumers choosing green options when faced with financial insecurity.
  • Unintended consequences
    If not managed carefully, sustainable financing could cause unforeseen negative effects on society, such as job losses as a result of cutting finance to fossil fuel industries. Other unintended consequences for green initiatives should also be considered, for example by-products of electric cars including toxic and non-recyclable batteries.

How is J.P. Morgan making payments environmentally sustainable?

The payments scope is wide – stretching across every conceivable industry. As a common denominator between these industries, we have undertaken a program of workshops and client meetings to  recognize and support ESG needs, which vary considerably between industries. Environmental efforts are  concentrated for technology, media and telecoms as well as consumer and retail, diversified industries and natural resources. However, healthcare, utilities and public sector, alongside Financial Institutions, are targeting their focus on social and governance concerns.

Our approach to ESG management includes having robust governance systems, risk management and controls at a firmwide level. Equally important for us in J.P. Morgan is the social aspect –  investing in our employees and cultivating a diverse and inclusive work environment, and working to strengthen the communities in which we live and work.  At J.P. Morgan, we are advancing sustainable solutions for our clients and within our operations in several ways:

  • Minimizing the environmental impacts of our physical operations
  • Maintain carbon neutral operations since 2020
  • Transition J.P. Morgan’s fleet to electric vehicles by 2025
  • 100% paper purchased from renewable sources and reduce office paper by 90%
  • Working with organizations to advance sustainable development

Financing positive ‘green’ solutions. We are aiming to finance and facilitate more than $2.5 trillion over 10 years to advance climate action and sustainable development, including $1 trillion for green initiatives.

Last year, J.P. Morgan released the 2030 emission reduction targets for the Oil & Gas, Electric Power, and Auto Manufacturing financing portfolios4. In addition, we have expanded our financing restrictions on activities such as oil and gas development in the Arctic.

Specific to payments, we are developing financial solutions that drive action on climate change and generate other positive environmental impacts. In sustainable Supply Chain Finance in particular, our compelling alliance with Taulia and Ecovadis provides a sustainable SCF program that assesses sustainability of suppliers and offers tired pricing based on rating.

Based on our conversations with multi-national corporates in Europe, it is clear that sustainability sits at the heart of their corporate strategy for the future.

Every company has become a climate company in its own right, as we all work towards a common goal of limiting the impact of climate change. At J.P. Morgan, we would like to reiterate our commitment to supporting our clients, communities and colleagues by working towards a new frontier of sustainable payments where we not only invest in our platforms but in our planet.

Source: Earth Day 2022 – Sustainable Payments | J.P. Morgan

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Bitcoin Brice Trades Around $21,000 As Crypto Firms Announce Layoffs

Cryptocurrencies have been sinking along with other higher-risk assets as the Federal Reserve steadily reverses the aggressive monetary policies it adopted earlier in the coronavirus pandemic. Lately, its efforts to raise interest rates to combat surging inflation have further dented investors‘ risk appetite. The market value of the entire crypto sector has fallen to less than $1 trillion from about $3 trillion in November, according to CoinMarketCap. Those falls reflect a significant drop in trading activity and momentum, and until that turns around, industry players like Coinbase are likely to remain under pressure, said KBW Managing Director Kyle Voigt.

Coinbase Chief Executive Brian Armstrong said the company had grown too quickly, expanding from about 1,250 employees at the start of last year to around 5,000 currently. “We saw the opportunities but we needed to massively scale our team to be positioned to compete in a broad array of bets,” he wrote in a note to staff. “While we tried our best to get this just right, in this case it is now clear to me that we over-hired.”

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
COIN COINBASE GLOBAL INC. 51.58 -0.43 -0.83%

The price of ether, the in-house currency of the Ethereum network, fell 4.5% to $1,187.30, its lowest close since Jan. 21, 2021. Over the weekend, the price fell below $1,360, the early 2019 high from the previous cycle. Other cryptocurrencies were mixed. Cardano fell 1.9%, but Solana was up 1.3% and Stellar was up 0.5%.

Source: Bitcoin price trades around $21,000 as crypto firms announce layoffs | Fox Business

BlockFi, a platform for trading and lending cryptocurrency, announced via a blog post on Monday that it’s laying off 20 percent of its 850 employees — around 170 to 200 people. CEO Zac Prince said in a Twitter thread that the layoffs can be traced to a “dramatic shift in macroeconomic conditions” and BlockFi’s push to become profitable.

It’s not the only crypto company letting workers go. On Friday, Crypto.com (the company with the Super Bowl ad featuring LeBron James) announced that it’s laying off around 260 workers, or around 5 percent of its workforce, according to a Twitter thread from its CEO, Kris Marszalek.

The layoffs come as the crypto market is struggling as a whole. The value of Bitcoin and Ethereum have been falling throughout Monday morning, and Celsius, a lending platform, has halted withdrawals, citing “extreme market conditions.” (BlockFi has specifically said that it has “no exposure to Celsius” on Twitter.) Binance, a large crypto exchange, paused Bitcoin withdrawals for about three hours, citing a technical issue, and within the past few months, we’ve seen coins like Terra essentially go to zero.

Crypto firms have struggled to weather the storm. Coinbase announced that it was slowing hiring in May and reportedly rescinded over 300 job offers the next month; several other companies, like Gemini, Mercado Bitcoin, and Bitso have also had to lay off at least 10 percent of their workers within the past month.

BlockFi says in its post that the layoffs come after a period of explosive growth. The company says it had “about 150 employees” at the end of 2020 and has since grown to a headcount of “over 850.” After the layoffs, however, the company will be down to around 600 employees.

Similarly, Crypto.com was riding high just a few short months ago. In November 2021, it reportedly paid $700 million to plaster its name onto a sports arena in Los Angeles, which was formerly known as the Staples Center. “In the next few years, people will look back at this moment as the moment when crypto crossed the chasm into the mainstream,” Marszalek told the Los Angeles Times when the naming deal, which is supposed to last for 20 years, was announced.

It’s easy to see why crypto companies have been hiring; the space has exploded during the pandemic with prices for major coins rocketing up, NFTs exploding onto the scene, and celebrities and companies alike hyping the blockchain. But, as 2022 has worn on and interest rates have gone up, the growth has started to reverse; trillions of dollars in value have been wiped out from the crypto market, NFT sales have slumped, and companies, including BlockFi, have run into trouble with regulators as governments try to figure out how to handle crypto. Not everyone who bought the boom has made it, and many in the space are predicting a “crypto winter.

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The Future Of Sales And The Pervasiveness Of Technology

I was recently a guest speaker at the Sales Leadership Conference organized by Dr. Karen Peesker, Co-Founder of the Sales Leadership Institute, a department at the Toronto Metropolitan University (formally Ryerson University) in Toronto, Canada. The conference was hosted by IT World Canada, Microsoft, DHL, Rogers and other community leaders. The conference goals were to bring university professors, students, industry leaders, and academicians to share their learning programs, identify gaps and requirements to advance the sales profession and most importantly, tackle a vision for the future of sales.

The strongest theme of the conference was the business imperative for advancing digital literacy, data literacy and ensuring that technology was firmly embedded in all sales learning programs. Digital literacy is best defined as an individual’s ability to find, evaluate, and clearly communicate information and knowledge through using diverse digital platforms. It is best evaluated by an individual’s interaction skills with technology and includes: grammar, composition, typing skills and the ability to produce text, images, audio and designs using technology.

This point was acutely reinforced by Fawn Annan, the CEO of IT World Canada (ITWC), with her high impact video conference address, where she identified how pervasive technology is in shifting the global sales landscape. Her panoramic and rich perspectives highlighting how diverse technologies – AI, analytics, IoT, driverless cars – are collectively impacting the world of a sales professional at work, and in society.

Annan quoted Gartner Group’s research stating that “a seller’s decision making is now based more on data, analytics and AI, versus intuition and experience” – prior stable hallmarks of a sales professional. This means that sales professionals will need far more digital literacy and data literacy training to be able to function in a far more data centric world. Other key takeaways from this video included:

1.) Hyper automation is advancing a buyer’s sales journey, and that a seller only has 26 moments to engage and influence a buyer in his /her purchasing journey. In other words, finding the right moments is even more important in following the customer data crumbs.

2.) Consumers check their cell phones on average 47 times/day and these frequent check-in’s, according to Google, are referred to as micro-moments. Hence the increased value of AI driven advertising as well the increasing intrusion consumers feel in invading their privacy.

3.) Over 76% of consumers transact and ship on mobile devices, and this number is increasing year-over-year. Hence, sales professionals’ primary interaction devices must be mobile and portable.4.) Sales applications exist throughout the sales buyer’s journey and increasingly, they are AI applications. According to McKinsey, the fastest growing companies invest more in AI sales digital tools than slower growth companies. A major contributor of sales performance success is having a robust sales software infrastructure. Hence, companies must accelerate their investments in sales intelligence software toolkits for advancing competitive advantage.

5.) Annan profiled two companies in her video address: SalesChoice and RingCentral. SalesChoice’s focus is on accelerating the growth of sales professionals and is a comprehensive AI platform well known for its proven sales use cases. Solutions include:

· Predictive Opportunity Scoring (focusing on the best deals with highest probability of a win outcome),

· Predictive Sales Forecasting that are securing prediction levels of up to 95% accuracy,

· Monitoring your data to ensure the AI predictions are on solid foundations,

· Relationship intelligence, with their new alliance partner, IntroHive, to bring even more win or loss signals to the attention of sales professionals. Who would not want to buy software that can predict your future outcomes at the top of your funnel and predict a win or a loss on every sales deal outcome, and identify the depth and breadth of your customer relationships across your enterprise?

· Mood and Health Intelligence: SalesChoice is active in innovation research with the Ontario Center of Innovation (AVIN program) and Purolator, propagating the importance of health in advancing employee productivity, and reducing attrition. Did you know that according to Payscale, sales account management was ranked as the second most stressful job, with 73% of respondents rating the role as “highly stressful.” Salespeople are under a lot of pressure to meet quota, convert quickly, and keep approval rankings high.

So increasing health approaches are critical to ensure sales talent don’t burn out or give up. Estimates of annual turnover among U.S. salespeople run as high as 27%—twice the rate in the overall labor force. In many industries, the average tenure of a sales professionals is less than two years. Given that the costs to recruit a sales professional is 20% and the time it takes to ramp up a sales professional is around 9 months, you can see how expensive it is to not retain your sales talent.

AI can act like a crystal ball. With good data, the mathematical genius in an AI algorithm and computational power is like the holy grail to guide sales professionals to greater deal outcome success and hopefully to happier behaviors and positive win outcomes as well.

The second company profiled was Ring Central, where Annan highlighted their collaboration and call center solutions, using AI methods to optimize building more productive customer interactions. Leaders like Sheevaun Thatcher, are advancing sales modernization programs at Ring Central, integrated diverse disciplines from: Adult Learning, Interactive Design, Strategic Planning, Collaborative Leadership, Diversity and Inclusiveness and always connecting the dots seamlessly. If there is a leader to watch advancing the field of sales and learning enablement, it is Sheevaun Thatcher.

Annan consistently highlighted that having advanced AI solutions can make a major difference to your digital conversion success, and reinforced that the old tools of looking in the rear view mirror are simply yesterday’s approaches. Due to the rapid speed of our world’s changing footprint, having smarter and forward looking (predictive AI analytics) toolkits is the only way that companies can grow faster, and more importantly, survive.

Increased AI Sales Toolkits Knowledge and Competency is Key.

Educating sales professionals to be ready for a smarter AI focused workplace will require skills, knowledge and proficiency in using modernized toolkits. So sales training must offer hands-on and practical skills development in universities to hit the ground running and bring value to a company immediately upon hiring.

Companies that use AI for sales in pre-sales have seen a 50% boost in leads, a 60-70% reduction in call time, and a 40-60% cost reduction. Numerous toolkits are in the market identifying the ideal buyer prospect and even knowing the propensity (density) of a buyer’s interest in your solution. Knowing where you customer is in their buyer journey is an inflection point for engaging in a micro-moment. Leading solutions advancing leads using AI are profiled in this blog.

In addition to pre-sales, other AI approaches can be used in opportunity scoring, predictive forecasting, and even mood / health indicator correlated to win rates. These are all areas that SalesChoice, a former ITWC Digital Transformation Award recipient, has been pioneering in.

According to the 2021 Buyer Experience Study, 80% of SaaS buyers report the buying process has too many steps and results in frustration for both the buyers and sellers. Hence, what this means for developing sales training programs is that skills not relevant to technology will need to be balanced with those that are. For example, empathy and two-way listening is key. Strong sales professionals understand that a buyer comes to solve a specific problem and not to buy your product. Understanding your buyer’s need is key in order to find a path for resolving it rapidly and reducing buyer and seller friction.

Research has shown that identifying the needs of your buyer can shorten sales cycle by as much as 65%. Customers (buyers) are coming into sales cycles far more informed from online sources. Hence, sales professionals need to learn more consultation skills to unravel the customer’s needs using relevant problem solving skills, enabled with as much prior information on the buyer as the buyer has on the seller.

Increase Training on Collaboration and Selling Virtually

With continued reliance on working virtually, the sales professionals will need to use a variety of online sales toolkits, ranging from a leading CRM (HubSpot, Salesforce, Microsoft Dynamics, etc.,), calendar management system, and collaboration system (like Zoom, or Microsoft Teams) etc. Expertise for effective collaboration will need to include skills in emotional intelligence, written skills, video presence (posture, smiling vs frowning), and voice skills (how you sound impacts how people want to listen). Other key skills like relationship development are increasingly valued in our network economy as building trust online must be mastered in seconds to capture a conversion in a micro-moment exchange.

Increase Digital Literacy Skills

There are many skills in digital literacy – from being able to use software, operate a digital device, to the ability to manage complex cognitive, social, emotional and motor skills to function effectively in digital high-tech environments. Key areas in digital literacy for a sales professional will need to include: the ability to understand reading instructions in digital environments, create or analyze simple to complex graphical displays in user interfaces, use diverse visualization methods, extract knowledge from non-linear, hypertextual navigation, and ascertain the quality and the validity of the information that is being presented.

Increase Data Science and AI Skills

In our data rich world, it is imperative for sales professionals to develop stronger data literacy skills. Data literacy skills include the ability of a sales professional to identify, understand, operate on, and use data effectively. Gartner Group defines data literacy as “the ability to read, write and communicate data in context, including an understanding of data sources and constructs, analytical methods and techniques applied, and the ability to describe the use case, application and resulting value.

Further, data literacy is an underlying component of digital dexterity — an employee’s ability and desire to use existing and emerging technology to drive better business outcomes.” Gartner Group is predicting that by 2023, data literacy will become essential in driving business value, demonstrated by its formal inclusion in over 80% of data and analytics strategies and change management programs.

However, traditionally sales professionals possess stronger skills in relationship building, listening and understanding people’s emotional states. A recent survey found that out of over 7M sales professionals on Linkedin, only 0.4% indicated they had studied math. This mirrors my experience as well leading sales teams or building software for sales professionals. Data literacy is a major gap in sales and to bridge this gap, companies will need to invest in training sales professionals in math, statistics and AI general concepts. This also will shift the hiring profile as increasing digital literacy and data skills are imperative to lead in the changing data rich world.

Conclusion

The Sales Leadership Institute and the leadership of Dr. Karen Peesker is an excellent initiative that requires government and industry support, as close to 5% of the North American labour population is comprised of sales professionals. Sales is an important profession focused on selling a company’s products or services, and also one that manages the customer’s relationship from an account management perspective.

Skill development in digital literacy, data literacy, relationship intelligence, and not losing sight of the softer skills (communication, written and oral, and listening) are all critical to advance the sales profession and be prepared to compete in a world that, as Annan shared in her video address, is increasingly technology centric.

SalesChoice, an AI SaaS company focused on Ending Revenue Uncertainty and brining more Humanity to Sales to avoid attention deficit disorder using AI and Cognitive Sciences. A former Accenture, Xerox and Citicorp executive, she bridges governance, strategy and operations in her AI initiatives. She is also a board advisor of the Forbes School of Business and Technology, and the AI Forum. She is passionate about modernizing innovation with disruptive technologies (SaaS/Cloud, Smart Apps, AI, IoT, Robots and Cobots), with 14 books in the market, with The AI Dilemma just released. Follow her on Linked In or on Twitter or her Website. You can also access her at The AI Directory.

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Source: The Future Of Sales And The Pervasiveness Of Technology

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German Industry Braces For Tougher 2022 Due To War, Lockdowns

German industry is bracing for a tougher 2022 as lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine compound ongoing supply chain problems, leading two associations to downgrade their forecasts for the year.

The VDMA engineering association cut its machinery production growth outlook for a second time on Monday. It now expects production of industrial machinery carrying the “Made in Germany” label to grow 1% this year, having already slashed its forecast to 4% from 7% two months ago.

Last year, production grew by 6.4%. The BDI industry association said it now expects exports to grow by only 2.5% this year, after predicting a rise of 4% in January. read more

The lowered forecasts come despite many companies having strong backlogs of orders, as they are struggling to fill them: A survey by the Ifo institute said 77.2% of companies complained about bottlenecks and problems procuring intermediate products and raw materials.

One in two companies affected by material shortages said the China lockdowns made the situation even worse than before, the IFO survey published on Monday showed. VDMA President Karl Haeusgen said in a statement that before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 80% of companies described their business prospects in Russia as good or satisfactory. Now, 75% expect it to deteriorate in the next six months or want to abandon it altogether.

“This shows the extent to which the war has changed everything,” Haeusgen said. BDI predicts production will grow by nearly 2% – less than expected before the war began – with the caveat that this forecast depends on supply chain problems easing and Russian gas continuing to flow in.

Exports may also be a concern. Last year, machinery made up a substantial part of the 26.6 billion euros ($28.5 billion) in goods that Germany exported to Russia.

Source: German industry braces for tougher 2022 due to war, lockdowns | Reuters

Critics by Carlos Caceres, Mai Chi Dao, and Aiko Mineshima
IMF European Department 

Germany’s economy contracted by just under 5 percent in 2020, outperforming most European peers. New waves of infections and associated lockdowns during late-2020 to early 2021 hampered the rebound from the first wave. But forward-looking indicators suggest further growth in exports and a brightening outlook for the services sector, in line with re-opening plans and anticipated pent-up demand.

For the year as a whole, growth of about 3.6 percent is expected. The recovery pae

th, however, is beset with risks, particularly regarding the progress of the pandemic and supply shortages in key industries. Retaining supportive fiscal policy until there is clear evidence of a sustained recovery while also using the fiscal space to lift potential growth over the medium term will be crucial. 

The government has extended various COVID-19 measures from 2020, such as grants to firms and an expansion of the short-time work subsidy, while also introducing several new measures to support households and businesses. Maintaining adequate support while the economy is still weak is important to minimize scarring effects. As the recovery firms up, more targeted policies and a focus on facilitating resource re-allocation becomes important.

Over the medium term, it is important that Germany’s fiscal space is used to boost growth potential by investing in physical and human capital, accelerating digitalization, incentivizing innovation, bolstering labor supply, and increasing disposable income for low-income households. Making progress towards these goals would also help with external rebalancing.

A green transition is key to Germany’s recovery program, yet there are opportunities to improve the cost-effectiveness of its climate mitigation measures. Following a constitutional court ruling in May, Germany tightened its greenhouse gas emissions targets aiming for a 65 percent reduction by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2045. Germany could bolster its mitigation program with a better-specified schedule of carbon prices over a longer time horizon, complemented with sector-specific feebates (revenue-neutral tax/subsidy schemes).

Continued government support for green infrastructure and technologies is also essential for the transition and to spur the economic recovery. To mitigate the potential adverse impact of higher carbon prices on households, further relief targeted at lower-income earners can be considered.

Germany’s expanded short-time work subsidy or Kurzarbeit remains important until the recovery takes hold, while groups not covered by Kurzarbeit need to protected by different means. The unprecedented take-up of Kurzarbeit helped keep unemployment in check and supported aggregate demand. However, as the recovery takes hold, normalizing Kurzarbeit parameters becomes essential so as not to inhibit labor reallocation toward growing firms and industries. Job search assistance and appropriate training programs can facilitate workers’ transition into post-pandemic jobs.

For groups not covered by Kurzarbeit, maintaining expanded access to the current basic income program would be beneficial until the job market recovers sustainably. To arrest widening inequality, the government could consider reducing social security contributions on lower incomes, which would also spur hiring and labor supply.

Safeguarding financial stability during the nascent recovery is essential. So far bankruptcies and financial losses have been limited, while bank capital has actually increased since the onset of the pandemic. But bankruptcies may rise as support measures are phased out, warranting continued targeted liquidity and solvency support for viable firms.

Meanwhile, specifying an appropriately gradual timetable for banks to rebuild capital buffers is important to mitigate the risk of curtailed lending when it is most needed. Banks also need to improve their cost structures to address chronic low profitability. Progress has been made in narrowing data gaps that have hampered the full assessment of macro-financial risks. But the buildup of financial vulnerabilities in real estate markets calls for close monitoring and for expanding the macroprudential toolkit to include income-based instruments.

Further reading:

UK inflation expectations stick at high levels – Citi/YouGov, article with imageWorld
WorldNATO’s support for Ukraine is unbreakable, Spain’s PM Sanchez says,
European MarketsRussian rouble rallies past 62 vs dollar, reversing last week’s heavy losses
European MarketsWorld stocks turn positive in May on Fed bets
European MarketsDollar resumes slide as stock markets tentatively pick up
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