The Federal Reserve’s Plan To Combat Inflation By Raising Interest Rates Carries The Risk of A Recession

A woman shops for chicken at a supermarket in Santa Monica, California, on September 13.Apu Gomes/AFP via Getty Images 

The last year of inflation has disproportionately hurt low-income and nonwhite families — those with the least flexibility in their monthly budgets to absorb higher prices. Now those same groups could be hurt by economic policymakers’ plan to tackle inflation through interest rate hikes, and in potentially longer-lasting ways.

Last month, leaders at the Federal Reserve predicted that, given their plans to continue raising rates, unemployment would rise from 3.7 percent (or 6 million people) to 4.4 percent by the end of 2023. In plain terms, this means an additional 1.2 million people would lose their jobs over the 15-month period. “I wish there was a painless way to do that,” Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell had said. “There isn’t.”

Other financial analysts projected even higher unemployment to result. Bank of America predicted unemployment would reach 5.6 percent by the end of 2023, translating to 3.2 million more people out of their jobs. Researchers at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in September that unemployment may need to reach as high as 7.5 percent to curb inflation, which would mean roughly 6 million people losing work.

The Federal Reserve raises interest rates to slow down consumption across the economy: As the cost of borrowing rises, the hope is that people buy fewer things, and prices stop spiraling higher. The latest data shows inflation still up roughly 8 percent compared to a year ago, and recent reporting in the New York Times suggests Fed leaders may even raise rates more aggressively into 2023 than they had previously envisioned.

The question is whether the Federal Reserve will be able to hit the brakes when they decide they’ve done enough — or whether it will be too late, and the economy will be hurtling downhill toward a recession that the Fed created but can’t control.

“One thing that’s a very open debate and a very important subtext to all the fights is the question of whether the Fed can actually increase unemployment just a little,” said Mike Konczal, the director of Macroeconomic Analysis at the Roosevelt Institute, a left-leaning think tank. “And with every million who lose their jobs, it’s that much harder to reintegrate them [into the labor force] later on.”

Stabilizing the economy, Konczal said, is like mending a garment. “You can pull at the threads, but if it tears you can’t just push it all back,” he said. “That’s certainly what keeps me very nervous, that the Fed is so worried it underreacted last year [to inflation] that now it might overreact.”

Some economic experts and journalists are asking if the current pain of inflation outweighs the suffering of a potential recession, and if there are less blunt tools the federal government could be leveraging instead.

“To have a smaller paycheck due to inflation, is that really worse than having no paycheck at all?” Today, Explained host Noel King asked Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari last week. “There’s not an easy answer,” Kashkari acknowledged, ultimately arguing that unemployment affects fewer people than inflation, and it’s easier for the government to target assistance to those who might be hurt.

But higher unemployment and recessions don’t just affect those who lose their jobs, and the assumption that the government would be willing or even able to provide targeted assistance to those pushed out of the labor market beyond the maximum six months of traditional (and relatively meager) unemployment benefits seems highly uncertain, given how Democrats’ more generous pandemic stimulus policies have been blamed for contributing to inflation in the first place.

Experts say the country still lacks the infrastructure to deliver more targeted aid, and with Democrats barely even mounting a defense of their pandemic assistance, whether there’s political oxygen — let alone technological capacity — to help those in a recession remains unclear.

On top of all this, if rate hikes do push millions more people out of work, those who would likely bear the biggest brunt of that job loss and take the longest to recover are the same groups suffering most now from inflation: low-income workers, workers with less education, and people of color.

Missing a “soft landing” means millions more people could lose their jobs

The workers who are most vulnerable to near-term layoffs work in construction and mortgage lending, and sell products like TVs and cars. These are so-called “interest-sensitive” industries, particularly responsive to changes in interest rates and borrowing costs. The next hit would be those working in firms that are particularly exposed to financial speculation — like traders and tech companies built around equity valuation.

The Federal Reserve’s goal is to achieve a so-called “soft landing” — meaning they want to lower inflation without throwing the economy into a recession.

Earlier this year Powell, the Fed chair, explained their goal was to make it harder for people to switch jobs, since job-switching and the fierce competition to hire workers were driving up wages. In this scenario, maybe a business eyeing higher interest rates would post fewer new jobs or decide not to fill vacant roles.

Maybe an employee would see the hiring landscape as less friendly and decide to stay put. “The idea is there’s a whole lot of activity happening that we don’t see by just looking at the unemployment rate,” said Konczal, of the Roosevelt Institute. “So in this scenario, where it becomes harder to switch to new jobs, the economy still cools without unemployment going up.”

Konczal says there’s some evidence that Powell’s “soft landing” argument has been bearing out over the past two months — the number of new job openings has slowed, as have the number of workers voluntarily switching to take another job. Wage data expected at the end of October should provide a clearer picture of where things stand.

But many experts are pessimistic that inflation can really come down without driving up unemployment, and say that if the Federal Reserve wants to see a genuine drop in prices it will have to force layoffs in less “interest-sensitive” industries, even if that increases the risk of a recession. Fewer people simply work in interest-sensitive fields like manufacturing than they did decades ago.

“That’s where face-to-face services like hospitality start to take the hit,” said Josh Bivens, the research director at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute. “Recessions can have big multiplier effects. Layoffs typically start in construction and then radiate onward, and things can get pretty bad if you have a big spiral.”

It’s harder for less educated, low-income, and nonwhite people to find work after layoffs

While some policymakers are trying to figure out if they could reduce inflation while keeping unemployment around 4 or 5 percent, other economists are sounding the alarm on what even this optimistic aggregate figure obscures — the unemployment rate for Black people is generally double that of white people, and for Hispanic people it’s typically 1.5 times the rate.

In one recent study, researchers found that lowering interest rates disproportionately helped the employment prospects for Black workers, women, and those without a high school diploma. It makes sense — if employers are facing increased competition for labor, they may be less likely to discriminate in the hiring process. Relatedly, over the past year, workers with criminal records and workers with disabilities were more in demand than they have been, as employers struggled to fill vacancies.

“It’s just a truism that when bad things happen in an economy, it’s the marginalized people, the people with less power, who are hurt fastest and most,” said Wendy Edelberg, the director of the Hamilton Project, an economics division within the Brookings Institution. “That should be fiscal policymakers’ laser focus, at all times but particularly in a downturn.”

The government is less likely to offer aid to workers who lose their jobs

When the pandemic hit, and millions lost their jobs or had their working hours reduced, the federal government responded with an array of financial policies to ease the pain such as expanded unemployment benefits, three rounds of stimulus checks, rental assistance, monthly cash deposits for parents with kids, hundreds of billions for state and local governments, and subsidies for businesses — big and small.

The investments kept millions out of poverty and evictions below historic averages, and are credited generally with helping the economy rebound much faster than following past downturns, and more quickly than other nations that had less robust stimulus policies.

But now Republicans have latched onto that federal aid as one of the top reasons inflation is at its highest point in four decades. They blame the Biden administration for putting too much money in people’s pockets, allowing them to spend too much and drive up prices. Some argue the American Rescue Plan was simply too big, or not targeted enough to those who really needed help. Economists disagree over how much the pandemic policies are to blame but Democrats, notably, are not touting their investments on the campaign trail, as voters cite inflation as a top election concern.

Republicans are expected to win control of the House, and Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy has for months attacked Democrats’ Covid policies for driving inflation. This raises the question: If the economy does spiral and workers lose their jobs or their workable hours, what kind of assistance might they expect to receive in that scenario?

“It’s one of the reasons I’m so worried about the Fed potentially overshooting, that we just won’t do that much to help people since we’re told that helping people too generously is what got us into this mess,” said Bivens of the Economic Policy Institute. “I think that’s wrong, but I’m still totally worried about this dynamic.” Bivens also warned that if Republicans control Congress, it might be in their interest to prolong economic hardship ahead of the next presidential election.

“If the Fed slips the economy into recession, what kinds of tools and political capital will be available? That’s a real concern that we aren’t talking about and aren’t being honest with ourselves,” said Mark Paul, an economist at Rutgers who has argued raising rates is the wrong response to the inflation crisis. “In the pandemic, policymakers reacted in a far better way than they have in our lifetime, where, rather than the economy taking 10 years to get to pre-Covid levels, it essentially took 1.5 years. The narrative now is that the government overshot, but the question is what were the other options and what would those have led to?”

Edelberg of the Hamilton Project said if there is a downturn, she hopes we can get “targeted relief” to those most in crisis, so that it only has modest effects on inflation. “We should do that with eyes wide open — knowing it will boost aggregate demand a little bit and that will be okay because a policy should have more than one objective,” she said.

Edelberg acknowledged the country isn’t exactly positioned to distribute targeted relief — the nation’s unemployment insurance system remains in need of serious upgrades. “We should be improving the system so we can find the people who need to get the money, so we don’t need to do things like send checks to everyone,” she said. “We do not have that infrastructure now because we haven’t really valued it.”

Slow wage growth affects even those who keep their jobs

It took 10 years after the Great Recession for wages to finally start rising, long after unemployment had gone back down. Part of this was fueled by state and local minimum wage increases, but part of it, experts believe, was due to a finally tightening economy.

Workers have enjoyed increased power over the past two years amid the even tighter post-pandemic labor market. Wages have gone up, especially for workers at the lower end of the income spectrum, and especially among those who switched their jobs. In 2021, wages grew by 4.5 percent on average, the fastest rate in almost four decades.

Now that we’re finally seeing broad-based gains in the economy, progressive economists warn that aggressive Fed policy could make those raises disappear. One major risk of a recession is slowed wage growth, which can impact everyone, not just those who lose their jobs. Even modest economic downturns can significantly reduce the chance of employers handing out raises.

The Federal Reserve has been explicit that its goal is to reach 2 percent inflation — meaning prices would continue to rise in that scenario, just hopefully more slowly and predictably. But if wages are not also rising, then families will still feel worse off and struggle to afford basic necessities.

“This wage growth angle is, by far, the most important reason why just looking at the rise of unemployment in a recession is a radical understatement of how many workers are adversely affected by recessions,” Bivens wrote in July.

One big fear for inflation watchers is the risk of a so-called “wage spiral” — a scenario where wage increases cause price increases, which in turn cause more wage increases. The concern isn’t baseless; wage spirals have happened before, most notably in the US in the 1970s, but it’s certainly not an inevitability. The labor movement was also much stronger four decades ago — over a third were unionized compared to 6 percent of private sector workers today — giving workers the kind of bargaining power they simply lack now.

Fears of a wage spiral have been dissipating somewhat. Wage growth is still higher than pre-Covid levels but has been slowing down this year. Earlier this month, researchers with the IMF concluded that wage spiral risks “appear contained” for now.

What else could be done?

Some economists and writers have warned that raising interest rates further is unlikely to curb some of the root causes of inflation — such as the war in Ukraine and factory shutdowns — and that inflation would come down next year regardless as supply chains get back on track.Others say more attention should be on things like investigating corporations for raising their prices far beyond the cost increases for raw materials.

The House Subcommittee on Economic and Consumer Policy held a hearing on these concerns in late September, and three Democratic lawmakers introduced a bill in May that would seek to ban price gouging during market disruptions. Dean Baker, an economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, pointed to what he called “an extraordinary increase in profit shares in a relatively short period” — rising from 23.9 percent in 2019 to 26 percent in the second quarter of this year.

Some centrist and conservative analysts have framed higher unemployment and a possible recession as simply a necessary if regrettable stage in the life cycle of an economy, almost like a biological reset. “The Fed’s rate hikes will hurt,” said the right-leaning Washington Post editorial board. “That’s unavoidable.”

But “the idea that severe recessions are necessary is absolutely not true,” said Konczal. “That’s the whole point of having a Federal Reserve and macroeconomics. And the idea that recessions are somehow regenerative and healing to the economy is also wrong.”

Whether one needs higher-than-expected unemployment or lower-than-existing GDP to bring down inflation is not really clear. “People are not sure if that’s true,” said Konczal. “It’s a small sample size, and we have only so many economies that you can test.”

Others have argued that fiscal policy — as opposed to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy — demands more attention to combat inflation. (Fiscal policy refers to a government’s decision to tax and spend, whereas monetary policy is about a central bank’s control over the flow of money and credit.) Fiscal policy can be more targeted, but it can also be difficult to pass through the legislative process, and take far longer to have an economic effect.

For example, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) has called for a “production agenda” that would involve new investments in child care, housing, and community college to bring down prices and train Americans to work. These strategies, if successful, would take years however to trickle out. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) similarly argued this past summer that Congress investing in child care would help bring more parents into the workforce, which could counteract inflation, though pouring more money into child care amid a worker shortage, conversely, could also worsen it.

In August, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) introduced a bill that would place price controls on utilities, food, and housing, bolster the scope of the White House supply chain disruption task force, and authorize better data collection on corporate profiteering. (Price controls are controversial, and led to soaring prices after they were lifted in the 1970s.)

Paul, the Rutgers economist, helped advise Bowman on his bill and told Vox that he believes the Federal Reserve is not taking seriously its dual congressional mandate for both price stability and maximum employment. “Right now the Fed seems to be focused on price stability at all costs,” Paul said. “Full employment be damned.”

Source: The Federal Reserve’s plan to combat inflation by raising interest rates carries the risk of a recession – Vox

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Pay Transparency Laws Can Help Fix The Wage Gap But Not Erase It

Coming soon to a job posting near you: Knowing how much it pays.Getty Images

A series of local and state laws, both newly adopted and soon to be in effect, will force companies to divulge what a job pays when posting an open position. Besides being common sense, the intent of these laws is to shrink the persistent wage gap that divides white men from women and people of color. Lowering the pay gap would be an important step forward for equality in the US, affecting everything from Americans’ quality of life to how they see themselves.

But while pay transparency is a much-needed improvement, a lot more is needed to truly create balance for all Americans. In the US, women and people of color get paid less than white men, regardless of job or experience. Pay gaps often begin at the start of careers, then compound over a lifetime as women and people of color are less likely to get raises. A variety of other factors contribute to the gap as well, like the motherhood penalty, wherein women who take time off paid work to care for kids are paid nearly 40 percent less than those who don’t.

There’s occupational segregation, in which jobs that are filled predominantly by women or people of color, like home health aides or food service workers, are paid less.  (The pay and prestige of computer science, for example, rose only as more men entered the field.) Women and people of color are also seriously underrepresented in leadership positions, which are paid the most. In sum, that means the median hourly wage for women is 86 cents per hour for every dollar a man makes. Black women make 68 cents.

There’s been little progress on closing the pay gap in the last three decades. Enter this new spate of pay transparency laws. “Transparency is one of the leading tools we’ve identified for closing the wage gap,” Andrea Johnson, director of state policy at the National Women’s Law Center, told Recode. “It is absolutely crucial for both increasing worker power and employer accountability.”

While some of the new pay transparency laws protect workers’ rights to discuss pay without retaliation, others go further. Laws that prevent employers from asking candidates about their salary histories, which have been cropping up from Connecticut to Hawaii in recent years, keep past pay inequality from informing how much a person makes at their next job.

Most promising are laws that require employers to post the pay range for a job when they first start recruiting. One such law went into effect in Colorado in 2021. One in New York City goes into effect in November, while California’s and Washington’s go into effect in January. New York’s governor is expected to soon sign a state-wide law of this nature that would go into effect next year.

Disclosing a pay range lessens the likelihood implicit bias will creep into new salaries because it changes the need for negotiating salary, which typically works out unfavorably for women and people of color. When women ask for raises (which they do as much as men), for example, they’re simply less likely to get them.

“Whenever we take negotiation out or reduce the role of individual negotiation, pay-setting tends to get more equal,” Ariane Hegewisch, senior research fellow at the Institute for Women’s Policy Research, told Recode.

The very act of establishing a pay range for a position forces companies to evaluate their compensation practices and potentially fix disparities between existing employees. Finally, pay transparency for new roles would allow already-employed people to negotiate for better pay if they’re making less than others in similar positions. Relying on workers to identify and negotiate the difference is obviously imperfect, but it will certainly help.

“It’s very simple: The more data that’s out there, the better positioned talent can be to know how much they’re worth,” said Josh Brenner, CEO of Hired, a hiring platform that releases an annual study on the wage gap in tech. The company’s software also notifies employers when it detects bias in their salary offers (Hired said the nudge results in updated salary offers about 5 percent of the time, and those offers are on average 11 percent higher).

While research on the effects of pay range laws is new and therefore limited, experts point to the much smaller pay gaps in the public sector and at union jobs, where salaries are more transparent and regimented. For transparency efforts to be successful, the ranges can’t be too large and companies have to be actively penalized for not following pay transparency rules.

Research on Colorado’s new pay transparency law showed that the fraction of job postings with salary information has so far grown 30 percentage points since the law went into effect in 2021, but more compliance is expected over time. Data shared by compensation software company Payscale showed that employees working at companies with pay transparency make 7 percent more than employees with the same job and qualifications at companies without that transparency.

And although these laws are being set at the city and state level for now, it’s possible their effects will reverberate outside of those municipalities, influencing companies to voluntarily share pay information, whether it’s to simplify job posting or to attract talent in a tight hiring market.

“I would say about half of our customers came to us without any requirements on the legal end that they have to post,” said Payscale senior corporate attorney Lulu Seikaly, referring to company inquiries about setting pay ranges. “They know with states like California, Washington, New York, and Colorado being forced to post their salary ranges, they’re going to be also forced to post their salary ranges just to get the talent in the door.”

Other strategies to close the pay gap

Extending these pay transparency laws to existing positions — rather than just new job postings — and to more companies in more states would be even more effective. But pay transparency alone won’t completely close the pay gap. “There is no silver bullet,” Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, said. “But I think pay transparency moves us in the right direction.”

While the experts Recode interviewed for this story expect that pay transparency laws will certainly lessen the pay gap, they don’t think that will mean women and people of color will all of a sudden have truly equal pay. As we know, the pay gap is caused by a number of issues, so it will likely take a variety of tactics to solve it. Here are some that experts told us would help.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, in an independent review of the data collection, recently found, unsurprisingly, that doing so is a key tool to combat pay discrimination, and recommended that the EEOC broaden and strengthen its data collection (the Trump administration stopped the practice but it’s expected to return under Biden).

Going a step further and making that data publicly available could do more to compel companies to rectify their wage gaps, rather than waiting for discrimination charges to make them do so. Additionally, better funding for the EEOC would make the organization better able to address the pay discrimination complaints they handle.

Raise the minimum wage: Part of the reason for the pay gap is that women and people of color are overrepresented in the lowest-paid industries. Therefore, raising the federal minimum wage, which has been stuck at $7.25 since 2009, would disproportionately help women and people of color and would go a long way toward lessening their pay gap.

Affordable, high-quality child care: There’s a child care crisis in America, and it deeply hurts the career prospects of women, who shoulder more child care duties. Without adequate child care, women will continue to be pushed out of the workforce and their wages will continue to suffer. The sector needs more government investment, which will in turn improve the personal and working lives of women.

Make it easier to unionize: Unions help rationalize pay bands and lower the wage gap, but it is incredibly difficult to unionize in the US. Passing the PRO Act, which is stalled in the Senate after passing the House, would make the unionization process easier, and more unions means more pay equality.

Of course, all of this is easier said than done, and it will take a long time for the wage gap to disappear. But the new transparency laws show that progress is possible, and so are more changes on the horizon.

By:

Source: Pay transparency laws can help fix the wage gap — but not erase it – Vox

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Unemployment Rate Fell To 3.5% In September As Labor Market Added 263,000 Jobs

Workers assemble cars at a Ford Assembly Plant in Chicago. AFP via Getty Images

The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell last month as the economy added another 263,000 jobs—signaling that the labor market, which has remained one of the economy’s strongest pillars during the pandemic recovery, may not be cooling quickly enough for the Federal Reserve to ease up on interest rate hikes meant to combat inflation by slowing down the economy.

Job gains in September were down from 315,000 in August but slightly better than the 255,000 new jobs economists were expecting, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department; notable job gains occurred in healthcare, leisure and hospitality, the government said.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%—coming in lower than expectations calling for it to remain flat at 3.7%—as the number of unemployed people dipped to 5.8 million from 6 million in August.

“The numbers are a positive sign that the labor market isn’t deteriorating as quickly as some had feared,” says Eric Merlis, managing director at Citizens Bank, pointing out average hourly earnings were the same month over month and fell from 5.2% to 5% on a yearly basis—a welcome development for the Fed, which is concerned inflation could remain hot as a result of higher wages.

The overall job gains mark the lowest monthly total since April of last year, but in emailed comments analyst Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge Media said the report is “still too robust” for the Fed to pivot from its aggressive tightening just yet.

As a result, stock futures fell immediately after the report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average turning negative to trade down 62 points, or 0.2%, by 8:45 a.m. EDT, while the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively.

Despite widespread reports of layoffs at giant corporations, the job market has remained one of the economy’s strongest pillars this year, and Fed officials have long pointed to the strength as evidence the economy can withstand additional rate hikes. According to Challenger, U.S. employers have announced plans to cut nearly 210,000 jobs this year, marking the lowest total for the period since at least 1993. However, recent data have signaled things may be changing.

Hiring intentions, which measure the number of new jobs employers plan to add, fell to their lowest level since 2011, according to career services firm Challenger on Thursday. Meanwhile, new jobless claims jumped 15% to 219,000 last week, coming in higher than projected and ending a ten-week streak of better-than-expected data.

The Fed’s next interest rate announcement is due November 2. After the latest jobs data, investors are still expecting officials will hike rates by another 75 basis points—pushing borrowing costs to a new 15-year high.

Source: Unemployment Rate Fell To 3.5% In September As Labor Market Added 263,000 Jobs

Critics by Indhira Santos & Michael Weber Global Lead, Skills Global Solutions Group, The World Bank

The global agenda on poverty and shared prosperity hinges in large part on the number and quality of jobs people have.  Even before the disruption caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the world was changing rapidly and that is true for the nature of work and how we acquire skills on- and off- the job. Technological change and globalization have created unparalleled economic opportunities and challenges while shaping a new geography of jobs.

They are changing how skills are rewarded and create large uncertainties in terms of which skills will remain relevant in the medium to long term. Similarly, climate change is already generating significant disruptions, threatening livelihoods, and generating displacement, while at the same time opening new opportunities in greener economic activities for those with the necessary skills and inputs to clench them.

A new demographic landscape is developing – through aging in some parts of the world or youth bulges in others. This is generating a new set of opportunities for growth and better jobs through labor and skills policies but also concerns if policymakers do not react to demographic shifts. At the same time, demographic change also nurtures concerns such as the consequences of a shrinking labor force with depreciating skills (aging) and questions about maintaining social cohesion (e.g. in countries with high shares of unemployed youth).

In parallel, rapid urbanization is bringing new benefits from agglomeration, but also new challenges of identifying and connecting millions of vulnerable people, women, and youth to jobs in the more anonymous urban centers. Migration of workers within and between countries continues to be an important trend in most regions across the globe.

In addition to these opportunities and challenges linked to global mega-trends, significant structural issues prevail in labor markets across the world, notably inequality and informality. Substantial inequalities persist in the access to work and its quality. These include the segmentation of workers by their form of employment, their gender, age, or location, both between countries but also within countries’ urban and rural areas. Many women remain outside of the labor force in countries around the world; when they do work, they often do so in activities where pay is low and opportunities to progress scant.

Many youths are idle: not employed, or in education or training, putting a dent in aspirations. Just as worrisome, many of those who do work do so in very low productivity activities, often informally, without access to social or legislative protections and with few opportunities to move up the labor market ladder or learn. As a result, many workers today are poor or one shock away from falling into poverty. 

COVID-19 impacts could leave an entire generation behind; the outlook for future employment, productivity, and earnings growth is sobering. Experience shows that workers who start looking for a job during a recession experience significant and long-lasting negative impacts on employment and income compared to those with better timing. This ‘COVID-19 Generation’ includes recent graduates, first-time job seekers, and workers who have lost jobs due to the pandemic.

They are likely to be scarred from this crisis the longer they are out of work or underemployed. The disruptive impact of the COVID-19 crisis on workers, labor markets, skills development, and livelihoods, as well as its likely long-standing impact on the world of work, has reinforced the importance of labor & skills policies and programs. Looking beyond the crisis, it is imperative to reflect on the multiple impacts of COVID-19 on labor markets and skills development and understand its future implications on the agenda, especially in developing countries.

This changing landscape for employment relations overlays with other factors that have traditionally provided the rationale for public interventions, including market failures and the exploitation of workers. Public labor and skills policy interventions can help mitigate these challenges. They can, for example, limit uneven bargaining power, reduce information asymmetries or discrimination, improve access, quality, efficiency but also the relevance of skills training, and provide protection against risks such as job loss and disability.

As outlined in the World Bank’s 2013 World Development Report, beyond policies that facilitate investments and growth, advancing the global jobs agenda requires the right investment in people – the right skills for people to secure good jobs, the right protection for people against risks arising from volatile economies, and the right mechanisms to help people transition smoothly out of inactivity and unemployment into jobs, and from low to higher productivity employment. 

Labor policies and programs support these goals. Labor regulations and insurance programs protect workers from risks and, if well-designed, can facilitate labor market transitions thereby allowing individuals to engage in higher risk, higher return activities. Active labor market programs such as training, job-search assistance, or support to self-employment or micro-enterprises can also help workers acquire the skills they need and connect them to jobs. For many, these programs can facilitate internal or international labor mobility and increase access to better economic opportunities.

Related News:

Blockchain: A fix for the broken data layer underlying the global labor market VentureBeat

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Job Openings Post Biggest Drop In Two Years In ‘Ominous Sign’ For Labor Market

Peloton Scales Down, Again—Here Are The Major U.S. Layoffs This Year (Forbes)

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The CEO’s Role Is Changing. What It Takes To Get The Top Job Now

gradyreese/Getty Images

Recruiters, leadership experts and board directors say the path to the top job, and the skills needed to succeed in it, has changed.

The mission of a CEO used to be fairly straightforward. Set the vision and strategy of your company and make sure the right people are in the right roles. Be sensitive to the needs of employees, customers, suppliers and others in your orbit but make shareholders your top priority. Above all else, grow as fast and as big as you can.

But as the world has changed, so have the demands of the CEO job— and the skills needed to succeed in it. Between the pandemic and polarization, climate change and cancel culture, the role has evolved in ways that few would have imagined a few years ago. CEO contenders lack a clear grasp on how the jobs they’re pursuing will change while those at the helm can offer only limited guidance.

What many CEOs increasingly realize is that the change has to start from within. Dick Patton, who co-leads the global CEO practice for recruitment firm Egon Zehnder, detected a mood of deep reflection among the 972 global CEOs they surveyed in a study last year. Nearly 80% of CEO participants said they needed to transform themselves as well as their organizations, and be more adaptive and self-aware.

Part of what’s fueling a new mindset is the recognition that trust and transparency have become vital to business success. Stephen Miles, an executive coach and founder of the Miles Group, argues that the CEO has gone from being the leader who runs the company to the person who must also promote the company’s purpose, impact and credentials as an employer of choice. In short, they must defend the company’s license to operate.

That requires “more influence-building, team-building, people-related skills,” says Miles, not to mention the courage to initiate change on weak signals and be open about their own struggles to connect with people. Emotional intelligence becomes more critical as the demands for CEOs to engage in political hot-button topics mount.

“You have to anticipate whether someone will have the instincts and the intestinal fortitude,” says Jane Stevenson, a vice chair at Korn Ferry who leads its global CEO succession practice. “The expectation of CEOs to take a stand—and to know when to take the stand and when to be quiet—is huge. It’s always been about who the person is. Now it’s who the person is, squared.”

A Need For Bolder Boards

Boards are starting—slowly—to think more broadly about the skills and profile needed to succeed as a CEO in this environment. Experience in operating and running a business is still essential—but a wider range of resumes and roles is under consideration. Diversity candidates are in higher demand, as are traits such as agility, resilience and political judgment.

“Boards are bucking conventional wisdom a bit more,” says Tim Conti, managing partner of executive search firm ON Partners. “The best boards recognize a CEO is just one member of an executive team, and if complemented properly, can come from a lot of new backgrounds.”

That doesn’t mean directors are rushing to take risks. CEO turnover dropped during the pandemic, as many boards put a premium on stability and familiarity to get through the crisis. While CEO openings among Fortune 500 and S&P 500 companies have picked up, most of those slots are filled through internal promotions, according to the latest Crist Kolder Volatility Report of America’s Leading Companies. Only 18.9% of new CEO hires through July were external candidates, versus 30.7% in 2019.

That could indicate more robust succession planning and leadership development—or a lack of imagination at a time when companies need it most. Jim Citrin, who leads Spencer Stuart’s CEO practice, argues that many boards are being too conservative at a time when they need the courage to make bold choices. “Some of the best-performing CEOs were not the obvious choices,” says Citrin.

“Boards basically define success as an internal promotion; failure as having to go outside. In this moment of change and dramatic stakes, all of us need to be creative and courageous.” While the usual route to the CEO’s office is through the president’s or COO’s job, that is not always the best path. A recent report from Spencer Stuart found that over the past 20 years, 85 percent of S&P 500 CEOs have come from one of four “last mile” roles: chief operating officer, a division-level CEO role, chief financial officer and “leapfrog” leaders who held executive jobs another rung or two from the top.

The most successful CEOs were those promoted from a few levels down; the least were CEOs who came from the CFO function. While the latter group knew how to turn a profit, the study found they weren’t as strong at driving top-line growth.

“Some of the best-performing CEOs were not the obvious choices … In this moment of change and dramatic stakes, all of us need to be creative and courageous.”

Jim Citrin, Spencer Stuart

The message is not to discount the value of leading the finance function but rather to supplement it with other responsibilities and C-suite roles. Bonnie Gwin, co-managing partner of the global CEO and board practice at Heidrick & Struggles, says there is demand “for CFOs who are strategic and have played really strategic thought partner roles with their CEO.”

There’s a growing appreciation for experience in other C-suite roles, too. A stint as a chief marketing officer or chief customer officer can be essential for running consumer-facing companies. The chief product officer is also gaining ground as a stepping stone to the CEO job, according to Mark Oppenheimer, CEO of Modern Executive Solutions, as it often “brings together sales, product, strategy and operational responsibilities.” Jeff Christian, who leads the search firm Christian & Timbers, agrees, adding that “product people are becoming the next generation CEOs.”

Perhaps the most common resume builder that indicates a CEO could be destined for the corner office is experience on a high-profile public board of directors. “Getting on some of these major boards is a very interesting corollary to someone getting CEO calls,” says Jana Rich, founder and CEO of the San Francisco-based Rich Talent Group. “You’re networked in a different way. You’re getting incredible exposure to people in the boardroom.”

A Premium—But Limited Progress—On Diversity

Whatever their background, one promising sign is that new CEOs are more likely to be women or people of color. Of the 682 CEOs tracked in the Crist Kolder report, 7.3% were women as of July 31 – up from 6.9% last year and 1.9% in 2010. Heidrick & Struggles took an even broader look at 1,095 CEOs in 24 countries and found women accounted for 13% of new CEOs during the first half of last year, about double from six months earlier.

Racial diversity is a slower climb, although Indian-born leaders continue to ascend to CEO roles, most recently at companies like Starbucks and FedEx. When it comes to the skills in demand for CEOs, some measures of potential remain constant. After studying data from thousands of CEO assessments, Elena Botelho, a partner at leadership advisory ghSMART, distilled the core behaviors for success to the acronym DARE – decisive, adaptable, reliable and engaging for impact.

While the framework is unchanged, Botelho says “adaptability became really paramount” amid the pandemic, which is less about the ability to spot a shift than to immediately respond to it. Resilience is critical. For current CEOs, the exhaustion of the last two years is real, despite it being a job where the median pay was a record-high $14.5 million last year for S&P 500 CEOs, according to an Equilar/Associated Press study.

The rinse-and-repeat series of crises and the dizzying rate of technological change is shifting how CEOs lead, how quickly they’re ready to pass the baton, and what their ambitions may be. While the current generation of CEO-ready leaders has arguably lived through more booms, busts and industry-shattering innovations than the people who came before them, many still feel unprepared. Faced with the prospect of added stress and scrutiny, some recruiters say a lot of candidates also want the job less and less.

They can earn millions through other C-suite roles without the constant scrutiny and stress. Still, for as long as there have been ambitious people, there have been people ambitious to lead. Increasingly, the brass ring is likely to go to those who are ambitious to learn. As Matthew Smith, an executive coach and former chief learning officer at McKinsey puts it: “Leaders who adapt and pivot with speed in the face of opportunities will outperform those who are over-reliant on the skills and habits that got them to the top.”

I am an assistant managing editor at Forbes, overseeing our editorial team that runs the C-suite communities, careers, ForbesWomen, 30 Under 30, and related coverage.

I am a Senior Editor at Forbes, leading our coverage of the workplace, careers and leadership issues. Before joining Forbes, I wrote for the Washington Post for more than a decade covering

Source: The CEO’s Role Is Changing. What It Takes To Get The Top Job Now

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Quiet Quitting Is a Trend Taking Over TikTok and Possibly Your Workplace

Getty Images 

Closing your laptop at 5 p.m. Doing only your assigned tasks. Spending more time with family. These are just some of the common examples used to define the latest workplace trend of “quiet quitting.” Some experts say it’s a misnomer and should really be defined as carving out time to take care of yourself.

Ed Zitron, who runs a media consulting business for tech startups and publishes the labor-focused newsletter Where’s Your Ed At, believes the term stems from companies exploiting their employees’ labor and how these businesses benefit from a culture of overwork without additional compensation.

“If you want people to go ‘above and beyond,’ compensate them for it. Give them $200. Pay them for the extra work,” Zitron told NPR over email. “Show them the direct path from ‘I am going above and beyond’ to ‘I am being rewarded for doing so.'”

Quiet quitting doesn’t actually involve quitting. Instead, it has been deemed a response to hustle culture and burnout; employees are “quitting” going above and beyond and declining to do tasks they are not being paid for.

How employees have changed their approach to work

Workplace culture has gone through many changes during the COVID-19 pandemic, including with the “great resignation.” Some workers are negotiating for better work conditions and benefits with newfound leverage.

Some workers have expressed a desire for a less rigid line between their work and personal selves. Professionals told NPR’s Morning Edition how during the pandemic, they have made changes in their work lives, from how they dress to their career field, to align more closely with their personal values.

“I started to realize that all of the hang-ups about being away from work to spend time with my kids, that was all me wanting to be a really good employee,” Kristin Zawatski told NPR’s Morning Edition. “But my work speaks for itself.”

Zawatski works in project management, a job that has afforded her the flexibility she needs as a mom of two. Although she would always make sure her work was done, she felt guilty whenever she needed to leave early or take a day off. That changed with the pandemic.

“Knowing that life could be short, I didn’t want to waste it anymore all the time just worrying about what kind of employee I was, because my kids don’t care what kind of employee I am,” Zawatski said. “My kids care what kind of mom I am.”

Quiet quitting is in line with a larger reevaluation of how work fits into our lives and not the other way around. As Gen Z is entering the workforce, the idea of quiet quitting has gained traction as Gen Zers deal with burnout and never-ending demands.

However, Gen Z is not the first generation to experience burnout, and quiet quitting is not a new idea. Zitron shared his frustrations with the framing of the term, because it mischaracterizes doing the tasks you are paid for with the idea of quitting your job.

“The term ‘quiet quitting’ is so offensive, because it suggests that people that do their work have somehow quit their job, framing workers as some sort of villain in an equation where they’re doing exactly what they were told,” Zitron said. Employers benefit financially from workers doing extra work without compensation and it is reasonable for employees to push back against that, he added.

“It’s part of an overwhelming trend of pro-boss propaganda, trying to frame workers that don’t do free work for their bosses as somehow stealing from the company,” Zitron said. For employers that are dealing with workers who may be exhibiting signs of quiet quitting, Zitron has one simple message for them: Pay them for extra work.

If you are experiencing burnout at work, setting boundaries can help you regain some control. Additionally, working on addressing workplace conflict head-on can make a situation easier — or be a sign it’s time to move on.

By:

Source: Quiet quitting is a trend taking over TikTok and possibly your workplace : NPR

.

Critics by Mariah Espada  

Maggie Perkins, a Georgia-based teaching advocate, had been working as a teacher for nearly half a decade before she decided to “quiet quit” her job. The decision didn’t mean she’d leave her position, but rather limit her work to her contract hours. Nothing more, nothing less.

“No matter how much I hustle as a teacher, there isn’t a growth system or recognition incentive,” Perkins told TIME. “If I didn’t quiet quit my teaching job, I would burn out.”

Perkins joins a larger online community of workers who have been sharing their experiences on TikTok, taking a “quiet quitting” mentality—the concept of no longer going above and beyond, and instead doing what their job description requires of them and only that.

The movement comes in the wake of a global pandemic that caused employees to reimagine what work could look like, considering the potentials of extending remote work, not working much on Fridays, or in some cases, amid the Great Resignation, not working at all. Arianna Huffington, founder of the Huffington Post and CEO at Thrive, wrote in a viral LinkedIn post, “Quiet quitting isn’t just about quitting on a job, it’s a step toward quitting on life.”

Why companies are worried about quiet quitting

With worries of an economic slowdown swirling, productivity levels are a major concern to company executives. U.S. nonfarm worker productivity in the second quarter has fallen 2.5% since the same period last year, its steepest annual drop since 1948, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Companies are now looking at productivity scales as a metric for excellence, with some going as far as moderating employees’ keyboard activity.

Major tech companies like Google are signaling that they are slowing hiring and could lay off staff amid concerns about overall productivity. Johnny C. Taylor Jr., President and CEO of Society for Human Resource Management, the world’s largest HR society, says remote work has caused severe burnout, Zoom fatigue, and made it harder for some workers to take breaks from home. “I don’t know a company in America that is not sensitized to burnout and the need for employees to step away from the workplace for their mental health.”

Taylor, who, as a CEO himself leads a team of over 500 associates, advocates for his employees taking time off when they’re feeling overworked, but he doesn’t see how embracing quiet quitting will be helpful to employees in the long term. “I understand the concept, but the words are off-putting,” he says. “Anyone who tells their business leader they are a quiet quitter is likely not to have a job for very long.”

Gergo Vari, CEO of job board platform Lensa, also believes the decision won’t serve employees long-term either. “Anytime that you silence your own voice in an organization, you may be depriving yourself of the opportunity to change that organization,” says his spokesperson.

Employees acting on their dissatisfaction at work isn’t only potentially affecting their job security. Gallup’s State of the Global Workplace report found that job dissatisfaction is at a staggering all-time high and that unhappy and disengaged workers cost the global economy $7.8 trillion in lost productivity.

The decision to step away from “hustle culture” can cause tension between employees and company executives, and can also cause a rift between fellow colleagues who may have to pick up the slack. “Whether people feel like their coworkers are committed to quality work can affect the performance of the organization and cause friction inside teams and organizations,” says Jim Harter, Chief Scientist for Gallup’s workplace management practice…

.

Related contents:

“Quiet quitting: why doing the bare minimum at work has gone global”. the Guardian. 2022-08-06. Retrieved 2022-08-12.

Bakshi, Pema. “In Defence Of ‘Quiet Quitting’ Your Job”. http://www.refinery29.com. Retrieved 2022-08-12.

Scott, Ellen (2022-07-29). “Could ‘quiet quitting’ your job be the answer to burnout? What you need to know”. Metro. Retrieved 2022-08-12.

Yang, Lindsay Ellis and Angela (2022-08-12). “If Your Co-Workers Are ‘Quiet Quitting,’ Here’s What That Means”. The Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. Retrieved 2022-08-12.

Kolev, Galin (2022-08-16). “What Is “Quiet Quitting” (And Should You Join The Trend)”. Officetopics.com. Retrieved 2022-08-18

Autonomy is the self-regulation of the social body in its independence and in its interaction with the disciplinary norm.”“What is the Meaning of Autonomy Today?” by Bifo Archived 26 September 2019 at the Wayback Machine

“Inspiracy presents Bob Black”. inspiracy.com.

Abolition of Forced Labour Convention (No.105), Article 1

“Definition of Wage Slave”. http://www.merriam-webster.com.

“the definition of wage slave”. http://www.dictionary.com.

Sandel, Michael J. (1998). Democracy’s Discontent: America in Search of a Public Philosophy. Harvard University Press. ISBN 978-0674197459 – via  Books.

“Conversation with Noam Chomsky, p. 2 of 5”. Globetrotter.berkeley.edu. Retrieved 28 June 2010.

“From wage slaves to wage workers: cultural opportunity structures and the evolution of the wage demands of the Knights of Labor and the American Federation of Labor, 1880–1900. Crime”. Socialissues.wiseto.com. 30 August 2007. Archived from the original on 30 June 2009. Retrieved 28 June 2010.

“The Bolsheviks and Workers Control”. http://www.spunk.org.

Full text of Cannibals All! Or, Slaves Without Masters, by George Fitzhugh (1857)

“Robert Schalkenbach Foundation”. Archived from the original on 16 July 2012.

“Conversation with Noam Chomsky, p. 2 of 5”. globetrotter.berkeley.edu.

Jensen, Derrick (2002). The Culture of Make Believe. ISBN 978-1893956285.

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