What’s Happening With Clean Energy Fuels Stock?

Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ: CLNE), a company best known for collecting and transporting renewable natural gas that is produced from the organic waste collected at dairy farms and related sources, has seen its stock rise by about 15% over the last month (about 21 trading days). This compares to the S&P 500 which has gained 4% over the same period.

The recent gains are driven by new contract wins, including a deal to build a hydrogen station and supply liquid hydrogen fuel for Foothill Transit, a southern California bus service. Moreover, Clean Energy Fuels also won a deal to supply about 78 million gallons of liquified natural gas to World Fuel Services for two container ships.

So is CLNE stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 54% chance of a rise in CLNE stock over the next month. See our analysis on Clean Energy Fuels Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Five Days: CLNE -1.9%, vs. S&P 500 4%; Underperformed market

(41% Event Probability)

  • Clean Energy stock declined -1.9% over a five-day trading period ending 10/20/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose 4%.
  • A change of -1.9% or more over five trading days has a 41% event probability, which has occurred 1021 times out of 2516 times in the last ten years.
  • Clean Energy stock rose 14% over a ten-day trading period ending 10/20/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose 4%.
  • A change of 14% or more over ten trading days has an 11% event probability, which has occurred 287 times out of 2516 times in the last ten years.

Twenty-One Days: CLNE 15%, vs. S&P 500 4.3%; Outperformed market

(17% Event Probability)

  • Clean Energy stock rose 15% over a twenty-one-day trading period ending 10/20/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose 4%.
  • A change of 15% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 17% event probability, which has occurred 424 times out of 2516 times in the last ten years.

See our theme on Hydrogen Economy Stocks for an overview of U.S. companies that sell hydrogen fuel cells, related renewable energy equipment, and supply hydrogen gas.

[8/17/2021] Is Clean Energy Fuels Stock A Buy?

Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ: CLNE), a company best known for collecting and transporting renewable natural gas that is produced from the animal waste collected at dairy farms and related sources, has seen its stock decline by about 8% over the last five trading days and remains down by about 5% over the past month (21 trading days).

In comparison, the S&P 500 was up by roughly 1% over the last week. The recent decline follows the company’s mixed Q2 2021 earnings that were published in early August. While revenues rose 29% year-over-year to $79 million, on the back of higher delivery volumes, net losses widened due to some one-time charges.

So is the stock likely to correct further, or is a rally looking more likely? Per the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which analyzes historical stock price data, CLNE stock has a roughly equal chance of a rise or a fall over the next month. See our dashboard analysis on CLNE Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

Now is CLNE stock a buy for longer-term investors? We think it’s worth a look. Although Clean Energy Fuels’ performance in recent years has been mixed, with the company posting little or no revenue growth, things are poised to only get better from here.

There is increasing urgency to fight climate change among governments and big businesses, and this should play to Clean Energy Fuels’ strengths. The company supplies conventional natural gas as well as renewable natural gas, which can be used to power heavy-duty trucks and buses while effectively producing negative greenhouse gas emissions.

Clean Energy’s RNG sales are projected to rise driven by more favorable regulation as well as deals with top energy companies such as Total, and BP, and retail behemoth Amazon, which has a five-year contract to buy RNG from the company. Clean Energy is also investing in bolstering its RNG supply, with plans to increase RNG production to 100% of the total supply mix, up from about 40% last year.

Although the stock trades at a relatively high 5.5x forward revenue, the company’s leading position in the RNG space, the sizable market opportunity, as well as potential regulatory tailwinds could make the stock worth considering.

[6/1/2021] Why Clean Energy Fuels Stock Is Up 3.5x Over The Last Year

Clean Energy Fuels (NASDAQ NDAQ +1.4%: CLNE), a company best known for supplying natural gas, has seen its stock price rally by over 270% over the last 12 months, with the stock now trading at levels of close to $8 per share, although it remains down from levels of around $18 seen in February.

This compares to the S&P 500 which is up by just about 37% over the last 12 months. The rally comes despite a weak financial performance, with the company recording no growth between 2017 and 2019 as sales stood at levels of around $340 million, with sales declining to about $290 million in 2020.

Clean Energy Fuels has also remained largely unprofitable over its 14 years as a public company. However, the markets are valuing the company much more richly, with its P/S multiple, based on trailing sales, rising from 0.9x in 2017 to about 5.4x currently. So is Clean Energy Fuels stock still a buy? We think it is, for a couple of reasons.

See our analysis on What’s Driving Clean Energy Fuels Stock’s 270% Rally? for an overview of how CLNE’s key financial and valuation metrics have trended.

Clean Energy Fuels is best known for its fueling network of over 540 stations across the United States, engaged in the supply of compressed natural gas, liquified natural gas, and renewable natural gas. However, much of the company’s surging valuation likely comes from its focus on expanding its RNG business.

RNG is produced when organic waste from landfills, dairy farms, and other sources decomposes and releases methane gas, which is then further processed and purified. RNG is viewed as a clean fuel and is classified as a carbon-negative in states such as California, considering its feedstock such as dairy cow waste is a key source of greenhouse gas emissions, and by using this it takes more carbon out of the environment than it produces.

This makes the fuel very attractive from an environmental standpoint and governments are incentivizing this via potentially lucrative federal and state-level renewable credits.

While about 40% of the Clean Energy Fuels gas sold in 2020 came from RNG, it is targeting a 100% mix of RNG at all its fuel stations within the next five years. Major corporations have also shown a lot of interest in the RNG space with Clean Energy Fuels recently signing deals to build renewable natural gas fuel facilities and infrastructure with energy giants Total (NYSE: TOT) and BP (NYSE: BP).

While RNG is used predominately in the transportation sector, powering heavy vehicles, it could eventually be used for electricity generation and even as a raw material for hydrogen production, giving it a massive addressable market.

The outlook for Clean Energy Fuels financials is also looking better. Sales are projected to grow by about 10% each year over 2021 and 2022, per consensus estimates, with the company also likely to break even in 2022. Now although a 5x plus forward revenue multiple is somewhat high, the company’s leading position in the renewable natural gas space, the sizable market potential, regulatory tailwinds under the Biden Administration, and the recent correction make the stock worth a look.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since 2016.

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates

Led by MIT engineers and Wall Street analysts, Trefis (through its dashboards platform dashboards.trefis.com) helps you understand how a company’s products, that you

Source: What’s Happening With Clean Energy Fuels Stock?

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More Men Than Women Are Now Single. It’s Not a Good Sign

Almost a third of adult single men live with a parent. Single men are much more likely to be unemployed, financially fragile and to lack a college degree than those with a partner. They’re also likely to have lower median earnings; single men earned less in 2019 than in 1990, even adjusting for inflation. Single women, meanwhile, earn the same as they did 30 years ago, but those with partners have increased their earnings by 50%.

These are the some of the findings of a new Pew Research analysis of 2019 data on the growing gap between American adults who live with a partner and those who do not. While the study is less about the effect of marriage and more about the effect that changing economic circumstances have had on marriage, it sheds light on some unexpected outcomes of shifts in the labor market.

Over the same time period that the fortunes of single people have fallen, the study shows, the proportion of American adults who live with a significant other, be it spouse or unmarried partner, also declined substantially. In 1990, about 71% of folks from the age of 25 to 54, which are considered the prime working years, had a partner they were married to or lived with. In 2019, only 62% did.

Partly, this is because people are taking longer to establish that relationship. The median age of marriage is creeping up, and while now more people live together than before, that has not matched the numbers of people who are staying single.

But it’s not just an age shift: the number of older single people is also much higher than it was in 1990; from a quarter of 40 to 54-year-olds to almost a third by 2019. And among those 40 to 54-year-olds, one in five men live with a parent.

The trend has not had an equal impact across all sectors of society. The Pew study, which uses information from the 2019 American Community Survey, notes that men are now more likely to be single than women, which was not the case 30 years ago.

Black people are much more likely to be single (59%) than any other race, and Black women (62%) are the most likely to be single of any sector. Asian people (29%) are the least likely to be single, followed by whites (33%) and Hispanics (38%).

Most researchers agree that the trendlines showing that fewer people are getting married and that those who do are increasingly better off financially have a lot more to do with the effect of wealth and education on marriage than vice versa. People who are financially stable are just much more likely to find and attract a partner.

“It’s not that marriage is making people be richer than it used to, it’s that marriage is becoming an increasingly elite institution, so that people are are increasingly only getting married if they already have economic advantages,” says Philip Cohen, a professor of sociology at the University of Maryland, College Park.

“Marriage does not make people change their social class, it doesn’t make people change their race, and those things are very big predictors of economic outcomes.”

This reframing of the issue may explain why fewer men than women find partners, even though men are more likely to be looking for one. The economic pressures on men are stronger. Research has shown that an ability to provide financially is still a more prized asset in men than in women, although the trend is shifting.

Some studies go so far as to suggest that the 30-year decrease in the rate of coupling can be attributed largely to global trade and the 30-year decrease in the number of stable and well-paying jobs for American men that it brought with it.

When manufacturing moved overseas, non-college educated men found it more difficult to make a living and thus more difficult to attract a partner and raise a family.

But there is also evidence that coupling up improves the economic fortunes of couples, both men and women. It’s not that they only have to pay one rent or buy one fridge, say some sociologists who study marriage, it’s that having a partner suggests having a future.

“There’s a way in which marriage makes men more responsible, and that makes them better workers,” says University of Virginia sociology professor W. Bradford Wilcox, pointing to a Harvard study that suggests single men are more likely than married men to leave a job before finding another. The Pew report points to a Duke University study that suggests that after marriage men work longer hours and earn more.

There’s also evidence that the decline in marriage is not just all about being wealthy enough to afford it. Since 1990, women have graduated college in far higher numbers than men.

“The B.A. vs. non B.A. gap has grown tremendously on lots of things — in terms of income, in terms of marital status, in terms of cultural markers and tastes,” says Cohen. “It’s become a sharper demarcation over time and I think that’s part of what we see with regard to marriage. If you want to lock yourself in a room with somebody for 50 years, you might want to have the same level of education, and just have more in common with them.”

By Belinda Luscombe

Source: More Men Than Women Are Now Single. It’s Not a Good Sign | Time

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China Leaps Ahead in Effort to Rein In Algorithms

Beijing is building a system to ensure that the automated processes of Internet platforms are fair, transparent and in line with the ideology of the Communist Party

Regulators called for the algorithms to be fair and transparent, following the ideology of the Communist Party of China.

The campaign puts China one step ahead in policing tech forums, as governments around the world grapple with how to respond to automated technologies that reshape business, social interactions and politics.

Earlier this year, the European Union proposed restricting certain uses of artificial intelligence to reduce potential harm. In the US, lawmakers are investigating Facebook’s influence Inc. NS

Algorithm-driven content on users, after Businesshala reported that the company’s Instagram app has a negative impact on children’s mental health.

China has targeted algorithms more aggressively under the close watch of its domestic tech sector. Draft guidelines released this summer would require algorithms to protect the rights of workers and consumers, and restrict the use of algorithms to manipulate user accounts, online traffic or search results.

“We don’t necessarily see China as a regulatory innovator, but in this case they are,” said Rogier Creamers, an assistant professor at Leiden University in the Netherlands, which focuses on Chinese technical policy.

Under a three-year plan released last week, Chinese regulators outlined steps to monitor algorithms, including a registration process and the establishment of a technical team to evaluate the mechanisms and risks of an algorithm.

The latest campaign builds on a broad regulatory push in China’s tech sector that has prompted investigations into some of the country’s biggest companies, including e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding. Ltd.

The push is partly directed at business practices that regulators deem harmful so workers or consumers.

Companies such as Meituan and Didi have faced heat over the working conditions of drivers, as well as calls for creating algorithms that schedule workers’ tasks and pay more transparently. Officials have also warned tech companies this year against exploiting personal data and using algorithms to charge discriminatory prices from customers.

China’s Cyberspace Administration, Alibaba and Didi did not respond to requests for comment. China is currently celebrating its National Day holiday.

Meituan declined to comment. The company previously published an explanation of its delivery algorithm and said it is making changes to give delivery drivers more flexibility.

Experts said it would be a challenge for regulators to tighten controls on algorithms without hindering development or innovation in one of China’s most successful sectors. Internet companies rely on complex mathematical instructions for tasks ranging from analysis of social-media behavior to mapping optimal distribution routes.

While algorithms have contributed to technological advancement and societal development, the CAC said in last week’s announcement, they have also brought “challenges to ideological security, a fair and equal society, and the protection of the legal rights of Internet users.”

Beijing-based partner at law firm Bird & Bird, James Gong, said tighter regulatory oversight of algorithms is likely to impact China’s internet industry.

Mr. Gong said of the country’s Internet companies, “Almost all of them use algorithms and automated decision-making and profiling to ensure that their marketing is more accurate and to improve business efficiency and increase profits.” Is.”

A senior manager at ByteDance Ltd said the requirement to register the algorithm would only add a step, restricting the learning of user behavior and recommendation services, as well as requiring disclosure of proprietary technology that could hurt the company’s business. .

ByteDance, which owns social-media sensation TikTok and its Chinese sister app Douyin, is known for its powerful algorithms that drive user recommendations and content.

“The regulatory environment is clear, and we need to start thinking about how to adjust accordingly,” the ByteDance manager said. He said that since most of the new regulation is still under debate, it is difficult to say what the immediate commercial impact will be.

ByteDance did not respond to a request for comment.

Sam Sachs, senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center, said China’s approach could appeal to other countries that want a thriving digital economy while maintaining a firm grip on political and social discourse. However, she said there is still a lot of uncertainty over the details and enforcement of these new rules.

“I think they understand that this is an impossible task that they have set for themselves,” Ms Sachs said. “I would also say that three years can be ambitious.”

The CAC guidelines also state that algorithms used by Chinese companies must uphold core socialist values ​​and promote “positive energy” in content provided to users.

China is taking more control of online content and communities. In recent months, it has severely restricted online-videogame time for players under the age of 18, banned pop-idol rankings and criticized online male personalities for being too sacrilegious. are visible.

“It’s almost taking online censorship up a notch,” Ms Sachs said. “It is saying that you have an obligation to ensure that any content that is algorithmically driven that you feed into the online space is to shape socialist values.”

By: Stephanie Yang, Reporter, The Wall Street Journal

Source: China Leaps Ahead in Effort to Rein In Algorithms

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AI Can Write Code Like Humans Bugs and All

Some software developers are now letting artificial intelligence help write their code. They’re finding that AI is just as flawed as humans.

Last June, GitHub, a subsidiary of Microsoft that provides tools for hosting and collaborating on code, released a beta version of a program that uses AI to assist programmers. Start typing a command, a database query, or a request to an API, and the program, called Copilot, will guess your intent and write the rest.

Alex Naka, a data scientist at a biotech firm who signed up to test Copilot, says the program can be very helpful, and it has changed the way he works. “It lets me spend less time jumping to the browser to look up API docs or examples on Stack Overflow,” he says. “It does feel a little like my work has shifted from being a generator of code to being a discriminator of it.”

But Naka has found that errors can creep into his code in different ways. “There have been times where I’ve missed some kind of subtle error when I accept one of its proposals,” he says. “And it can be really hard to track this down, perhaps because it seems like it makes errors that have a different flavor than the kind I would make.”

The risks of AI generating faulty code may be surprisingly high. Researchers at NYU recently analyzed code generated by Copilot and found that, for certain tasks where security is crucial, the code contains security flaws around 40 percent of the time.

The figure “is a little bit higher than I would have expected,” says Brendan Dolan-Gavitt, a professor at NYU involved with the analysis. “But the way Copilot was trained wasn’t actually to write good code—it was just to produce the kind of text that would follow a given prompt.”

Despite such flaws, Copilot and similar AI-powered tools may herald a sea change in the way software developers write code. There’s growing interest in using AI to help automate more mundane work. But Copilot also highlights some of the pitfalls of today’s AI techniques.

While analyzing the code made available for a Copilot plugin, Dolan-Gavitt found that it included a list of restricted phrases. These were apparently introduced to prevent the system from blurting out offensive messages or copying well-known code written by someone else.

Oege de Moor, vice president of research at GitHub and one of the developers of Copilot, says security has been a concern from the start. He says the percentage of flawed code cited by the NYU researchers is only relevant for a subset of code where security flaws are more likely.

De Moor invented CodeQL, a tool used by the NYU researchers that automatically identifies bugs in code. He says GitHub recommends that developers use Copilot together with CodeQL to ensure their work is safe.

The GitHub program is built on top of an AI model developed by OpenAI, a prominent AI company doing cutting-edge work in machine learning. That model, called Codex, consists of a large artificial neural network trained to predict the next characters in both text and computer code. The algorithm ingested billions of lines of code stored on GitHub—not all of it perfect—in order to learn how to write code.

OpenAI has built its own AI coding tool on top of Codex that can perform some stunning coding tricks. It can turn a typed instruction, such as “Create an array of random variables between 1 and 100 and then return the largest of them,” into working code in several programming languages.

Another version of the same OpenAI program, called GPT-3, can generate coherent text on a given subject, but it can also regurgitate offensive or biased language learned from the darker corners of the web.

Copilot and Codex have led some developers to wonder if AI might automate them out of work. In fact, as Naka’s experience shows, developers need considerable skill to use the program, as they often must vet or tweak its suggestions.

Hammond Pearce, a postdoctoral researcher at NYU involved with the analysis of Copilot code, says the program sometimes produces problematic code because it doesn’t fully understand what a piece of code is trying to do. “Vulnerabilities are often caused by a lack of context that a developer needs to know,” he says.

Some developers worry that AI is already picking up bad habits. “We have worked hard as an industry to get away from copy-pasting solutions, and now Copilot has created a supercharged version of that,” says Maxim Khailo, a software developer who has experimented with using AI to generate code but has not tried Copilot.

Khailo says it might be possible for hackers to mess with a program like Copilot. “If I was a bad actor, what I would do would be to create vulnerable code projects on GitHub, artificially boost their popularity by buying GitHub stars on the black market, and hope that it will become part of the corpus for the next training round.”

Both GitHub and OpenAI say that, on the contrary, their AI coding tools are only likely to become less error prone. OpenAI says it vets projects and code both manually and using automated tools.

De Moor at GitHub says recent updates to Copilot should have reduced the frequency of security vulnerabilities. But he adds that his team is exploring other ways of improving the output of Copilot. One is to remove bad examples that the underlying AI model learns from. Another may be to use reinforcement learning, an AI technique that has produced some impressive results in games and other areas, to automatically spot bad output, including previously unseen examples. “Enormous improvements are happening,” he says. “It’s almost unimaginable what it will look like in a year.”

Source: AI Can Write Code Like Humans—Bugs and All | WIRED

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4 Missteps For Banks To Avoid When Migrating Payment Services To The Cloud

Banks and financial services providers can realize the efficiency and cost savings of cloud-based payments by taking proactive steps to guard against these common mistakes, notes Rustin Carpenter, a Global Payments Solution Leader for Cognizant’s Banking & Financial Services Industry Services Group.

The cloud’s lure of simplification is a powerful incentive for payment providers, as its role enabling modernization and permanently switching off legacy applications. Where banks struggle, however, is in shaping a strategy to get their payment services to the cloud. By understanding the common missteps, banks can create a plan for payment migration that maximizes benefits while minimizing risks.

The pandemic was a digital tipping point for banks, forcing them to implement in just a few months capabilities that otherwise would have taken several years. Research published in 2019 found that financial services firms lagged in adoption of public cloud infrastructure as a service (IaaS), with just 18% broadly implementing IaaS for production applications, compared to 25% of businesses overall.

Now many banking leaders we talk with are taking a serious look at cloud-based payment services, motivated by the age and complexity of their core payment applications as well as their business’s growing confidence in the security of cloud platforms such as Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services (AWS). As banks contemplate migrating payment services to the cloud, here are some common mistakes to avoid that will ensure a smoother journey:

1. Assuming the cloud is cheaper.

Cloud-based services are indeed less expensive to run — once applications and services have been migrated. To manage a successful payments migration, be aware of the costs along the journey. The cloud can be a heavy lift. While banks and financial services providers often consider themselves proficient at consolidation and rationalization, the extensiveness required for cloud migration frequently far exceeds the effort of previous initiatives. For example, we helped a bank reduce its infrastructure footprint by 25% and lower its total cost of ownership by migrating its applications to the cloud.

That outcome, however, required careful analysis of the bank’s application source code and development of a migration strategy and cloud deployment architecture, as well as assessing and migrating more than 800 applications over three years. Cloud-based services are more streamlined and less expensive to operate, but accurately budgeting for the upfront time and resources of a cloud payment migration is challenging due to the many unknowns. Careful attention to planning is critical for a realistic cost assessment.

2. Underestimating the amount of prework.

The cloud promises to reduce complexity but getting to that point takes a thoughtful migration plan that’s complete and doesn’t skimp on details. What steps will be taken to ensure there’s no disruption to clients? Which applications make sense to retain and manage in-house, and which can be leveraged as payments as a service? For instance, fund disbursements for a retail consumer bank that administers 529 plans are typically a low-volume service for which cloud automation is a great fit, replacing paper checks with significantly less costly cloud-based payments.

But when it comes to payments as a service, managing risk and ensuring value also come into play. Wire transfers might appear to be good candidates for migration to cloud payments, but if most of the bank’s transfers are for high net worth individuals with equally high customer lifetime value, then the transfers may require levels of personalized service best handled with an on-premise platform rather than in the cloud. A well thought out strategy that addresses all impacts and value opportunities helps bank leaders avoid the unintended consequences that keep them awake at night.

3. Failure to prioritize.

A payments migration needs to be phased in a way that provides strategic competitive advantage. Setting priorities is key. For example, a bank may choose to align its payments migration with a specific strategy, such as a planned de-emphasis on branch offices. Another approach is to migrate the costliest payment applications first. Some banks may reserve cloud adoption for when they’re ready to add new payments capabilities.

Each bank’s path to cloud payments is nuanced, yet there’s often a feeling among banking leaders that moving to the cloud is an all-or-nothing proposition. That is, payments are either entirely cloud-based or all on premise. A more realistic goal is to craft a migration roadmap for a hybrid environment that accommodates both types of infrastructure for the near future, and to then prioritize and phase the payments migration in a way that makes strategic sense.

4. Testing in a dissimilar environment.

Replicating legacy operating environments for testing is expensive, so it’s not uncommon for banks to settle on environments that are similar but not identical — though the variation often leads to production environment errors that can derail cloud migration efforts. Performance falls short of expectations, typically due to the tangle of payment applications resulting from years of mergers and acquisitions.

For example, post-merger banking platforms often utilize more than one legacy payment hub, and there’s little chance that a bank’s current IT staff fully understands or can predict the unintended consequences for the hubs when making changes to the platform. Don’t fret over creating the perfect testing environment. Rather, build an environment that’s as close as possible.

By avoiding these common missteps, payment providers can reap the benefits of a simplified, modern infrastructure and application environment and minimize the risks.

To learn more, please visit the digital payments section of our website or contact us.

Rustin “Rusty” Carpenter leads payments solutions within Cognizant’s Banking & Financial Services’ Commercial Industry Solutions Group (ISG). In this role, he works with group leaders and client-facing teams to elevate Cognizant’s client relevance, industry expertise and challenge-solving capabilities. Over his career, he has developed deep and broad expertise in payments and the emerging alternative and digital/mobile payments arenas. He is a frequent speaker on these topics at conferences worldwide and serves as a board advisor to fin-techs in all areas of payments and fraud prevention/mitigation.

Carpenter most recently was Head of Sales & Service, NA for ABCorp. Previously, he ran the Instant Issuance business for North America at Entrust Datacard; served as COO for Certegy Check Services, N.A.; was General Manager, NA for American Express Corporate Services; and completed multiple assignments at Andersen Worldwide and Dun & Bradstreet. Rustin has a Bachelor of Arts degree from Denison University and an MBA in finance from Rutgers Graduate School of Management. He can be reached at Rustin.Carpenter@cognizant.com

Source: 4 Missteps For Banks To Avoid When Migrating Payment Services To The Cloud

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Scientists Figured Out How Much Exercise You Need to ‘Offset’ a Day of Sitting

We know that spending hour after hour sitting down isn’t good for us, but just how much exercise is needed to counteract the negative health impact of a day at a desk? A 2020 study suggests about 30-40 minutes per day of building up a sweat should do it.

Up to 40 minutes of “moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity” every day is about the right amount to balance out 10 hours of sitting still, the research says – although any amount of exercise or even just standing up helps to some extent.

That’s based on a meta-analysis across nine previous studies, involving a total of 44,370 people in four different countries who were wearing some form of fitness tracker.

The analysis found the risk of death among those with a more sedentary lifestyle went up as time spent engaging in moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity went down.

“In active individuals doing about 30-40 minutes of moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity, the association between high sedentary time and risk of death is not significantly different from those with low amounts of sedentary time,” the researchers wrote in the British Journal of Sports Medicine (BJSM) in 2020.

In other words, putting in some reasonably intensive activities – cycling, brisk walking, gardening – can lower your risk of an earlier death right back down to what it would be if you weren’t doing all that sitting around, to the extent that this link can be seen in the amassed data of many thousands of people.

While meta-analyses like this one always require some elaborate dot-joining across separate studies with different volunteers, timescales, and conditions, the benefit of this particular piece of research is that it relied on relatively objective data from wearables – not data self-reported by the participants.

The study was published alongside the release of the World Health Organization 2020 Global Guidelines on Physical Activity and Sedentary Behavior, put together by 40 scientists across six continents. In fact, in November 2020 BJSM put out a special edition to carry both the new study and the new guidelines.

“These guidelines are very timely, given that we are in the middle of a global pandemic, which has confined people indoors for long periods and encouraged an increase in sedentary behavior,” said physical activity and population health researcher Emmanuel Stamatakis from the University of Sydney in Australia.

“People can still protect their health and offset the harmful effects of physical inactivity,” says Stamatakis, who wasn’t involved in the meta-analysis but is the co-editor of the BJSM. “As these guidelines emphasize, all physical activity counts and any amount of it is better than none.”

The research based on fitness trackers is broadly in line with the new WHO guidelines, which recommend 150-300 mins of moderate intensity or 75-150 mins of vigorous-intensity physical activity every week to counter sedentary behavior.

Walking up the stairs instead of taking the lift, playing with children and pets, taking part in yoga or dancing, doing household chores, walking, and cycling are all put forward as ways in which people can be more active – and if you can’t manage the 30-40 minutes right away, the researchers say, start off small.

Making recommendations across all ages and body types is tricky, though the 40 minute time frame for activity fits in with previous research. As more data are published, we should learn more about how to stay healthy even if we have to spend extended periods of time at a desk.

“Although the new guidelines reflect the best available science, there are still some gaps in our knowledge,” said Stamatakis.

“We are still not clear, for example, where exactly the bar for ‘too much sitting’ is. But this is a fast-paced field of research, and we will hopefully have answers in a few years’ time.”

The research was published here, and the WHO guidelines here, in the British Journal of Sports Medicine.

By: David Nield

Source: Scientists Figured Out How Much Exercise You Need to ‘Offset’ a Day of Sitting

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Climate Crisis: Scientists Spot Warning Signs of Gulf Stream Collapse

Climate scientists have detected warning signs of the collapse of the Gulf Stream, one of the planet’s main potential tipping points.

The research found “an almost complete loss of stability over the last century” of the currents that researchers call the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The currents are already at their slowest point in at least 1,600 years, but the new analysis shows they may be nearing a shutdown.

Such an event would have catastrophic consequences around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and West Africa; increasing storms and lowering temperatures in Europe; and pushing up the sea level off eastern North America. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets.

The complexity of the AMOC system and uncertainty over levels of future global heating make it impossible to forecast the date of any collapse for now. It could be within a decade or two, or several centuries away. But the colossal impact it would have means it must never be allowed to happen, the scientists said.

“The signs of destabilisation being visible already is something that I wouldn’t have expected and that I find scary,” said Niklas Boers, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who did the research. “It’s something you just can’t [allow to] happen.”

It is not known what level of CO2 would trigger an AMOC collapse, he said. “So the only thing to do is keep emissions as low as possible. The likelihood of this extremely high-impact event happening increases with every gram of CO2 that we put into the atmosphere”.

Scientists are increasingly concerned about tipping points – large, fast and irreversible changes to the climate. Boers and his colleagues reported in May that a significant part of the Greenland ice sheet is on the brink, threatening a big rise in global sea level. Others have shown recently that the Amazon rainforest is now emitting more CO2 than it absorbs, and that the 2020 Siberian heatwave led to worrying releases of methane.

The world may already have crossed a series of tipping points, according to a 2019 analysis, resulting in “an existential threat to civilization”. A major report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due on Monday, is expected to set out the worsening state of the climate crisis.

Boer’s research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, is titled “Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the AMOC”. Ice-core and other data from the last 100,000 years show the AMOC has two states: a fast, strong one, as seen over recent millennia, and a slow, weak one. The data shows rising temperatures can make the AMOC switch abruptly between states over one to five decades.

The AMOC is driven by dense, salty seawater sinking into the Arctic ocean, but the melting of freshwater from Greenland’s ice sheet is slowing the process down earlier than climate models suggested.

Boers used the analogy of a chair to explain how changes in ocean temperature and salinity can reveal the AMOC’s instability. Pushing a chair alters its position, but does not affect its stability if all four legs remain on the floor. Tilting the chair changes both its position and stability.

Eight independently measured datasets of temperature and salinity going back as far as 150 years enabled Boers to show that global heating is indeed increasing the instability of the currents, not just changing their flow pattern.

The analysis concluded: “This decline [of the AMOC in recent decades] may be associated with an almost complete loss of stability over the course of the last century, and the AMOC could be close to a critical transition to its weak circulation mode.”

Levke Caesar, at Maynooth University in Ireland, who was not involved in the research, said: “The study method cannot give us an exact timing of a possible collapse, but the analysis presents evidence that the AMOC has already lost stability, which I take as a warning that we might be closer to an AMOC tipping than we think.”

David Thornalley, at University College London in the UK, whose work showed the AMOC is at its weakest point in 1,600 years, said: “These signs of decreasing stability are concerning. But we still don’t know if a collapse will occur, or how close we might be to it.”

By: Environment editor

Source: Climate crisis: Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream collapse | Climate change | The Guardian

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What’s Happening With Peloton Stock?

 stock has had a relatively tough year, declining by about 20% since early January and remains down by almost 33% from its all-time highs, as investors expect that higher vaccination rates and a continued re-opening of the gyms and in-person fitness classes would hurt demand for the company’s fitness equipment and subscriptions. However, there have been a couple of positive developments for the company over the last several weeks.

In July, UnitedHealthcare indicated that it was working with Peloton to provide members with access to fitness classes for a year. The deal, which marks Peloton’s first collaboration with a health plan, could prove an attractive avenue for subscriber acquisition for Peloton, considering that UnitedHealth has roughly four million commercial members. For perspective, Peloton had a total of about three million subscribers for its connected fitness and digital offerings as of the last quarter. UnitedHealth should also stand to benefit, as having healthier and more active customers could help to lower its healthcare costs. Peloton could expand with similar partnerships with other healthcare and insurance companies.

Moreover, it doesn’t look like we are done with the Covid-19 pandemic just yet. Daily new infections in the U.S. have been on the uptrend over the last few weeks, driven by the spread of the highly infectious Delta variant of the virus. The seven-day average case rate has risen from 22,000 in early July to over 100,000 cases presently. This could delay the re-opening of workplaces and keep people at home for a few more quarters, bolstering demand for Peloton’s products. The company might also be in a better position to cater to demand now, considering that it has taken steps to address supply chain bottlenecks.

That being said, the near-term trajectory for the stock will depend significantly on the company’s guidance for FY’22 (fiscal years end June), which is likely to be provided during its Q4 FY’21 earnings due later this month. We value Peloton stock at about $130 per share, slightly ahead of the current market price. See our analysis on  for more details.

[6/23/2021] Peloton’s Corporate Wellness Program

 stock has rallied by almost 11% over the last five trading days and remains up by around 16% over the last month. A part of the gains was driven by analyst upgrades and anticipation surrounding the re-launch of its treadmills following a recall last month. However, the bulk of the gains came on Tuesday after Peloton announced a new corporate wellness program that offers employees subsidized access to Peloton’s digital fitness membership and its fitness equipment, along with tailor-made features such as team tagging and group exercises.

Peloton will also assist its corporate partners with setting up workout spaces in offices. The offering could be a big win for Peloton as investors have been concerned about the company’s growth prospects following its Covid-fueled surge over the past year. By partnering with large corporations, Peloton could get more high-value customers to sign up for its services while possibly seeing lower customer acquisition costs. Corporates also stand to benefit as they look to bring talent back into the workplace after over a year of remote working. Health and fitness-related benefits, particularly from a buzzy brand like Peloton, are likely to be sought after by employees following the pandemic.

We remain bullish on Peloton’s stock, with a price estimate of about $130 per share, about 10% ahead of the current market price of about $117. See our interactive analysis for a detailed look at Peloton’s valuation and financials. See our updates below on our outlook for Peloton stock.

[6/17/2021] What Will Peloton Look Like In 2025?

At-home fitness major  has been one of the big winners through the Covid-19 pandemic, with its stock up by over 5x since the first set of Covid-19 lockdowns back in March 2020. The stock now trades at about $105 per share, or almost 6x projected FY’22 revenues (fiscal years end June) and 200x FY’22 EPS. Is this expensive? Probably not, considering that sales could potentially grow almost 2.4x over the next four years (FY’24), with the company also expected to improve its profitability considerably from FY’22 onward.

We believe Peloton’s revenues could potentially rise close to 2.4x from the levels of $4 billion in FY’21 to $9.5 billion by FY’25, representing a compounded annual growth rate of almost 24%. For context, that’s still well below the solid 145% CAGR the company is on track to post between FY’18 and FY’21. Although the end of Covid-19 – a big tailwind for Peloton – appears to be in sight, there are multiple secular trends that should help to grow sales post the pandemic. The economics of owning a Peloton compare favorably with gym memberships and spin classes, and the added convenience of working out from home should give customers a reason to buy Peloton.

Moreover, Peloton should benefit from the easing of current supply chain bottlenecks, with the company planning to build out its own U.S. factory, which is likely to commence operations from 2023. Peloton’s international expansion – which is just getting started – is also likely to drive sales growth. Sure, revenue growth could be still higher if we consider Peloton’s possible push into commercial-fitness applications post its acquisition of Precor, but 2.4x growth in the top line over the next four fiscal years looks very much achievable as a base case.

Combine revenue growth with the fact that Peloton’s net income margins (net income, or profits after all expenses and taxes, calculated as a percent of revenues) are on an improving trajectory. Net margins rose sharply from -13% over the first nine months of FY’20 to almost 4% over the same period in FY’21. Margins probably have a lot more room to expand as revenues increase, given Peloton’s solid unit economics.

Peloton has a vertically integrated model which includes hardware, software, and subscription services, somewhat similar to tech titan Apple. Gross margins stood at about 39% for the first nine months of FY’21, just a hair below Apple’s 40% odd margins. It’s probably not far-fetched to assume that net margins could approach 20% by FY’25. Considering our revenue projections of roughly $9.5 billion and 20% margins, almost $1.9 billion in net income is possible by FY’25.

Now, if Peloton’s revenues grow 2.4x, the P/S multiple will shrink by almost 60% from its current levels, assuming the stock price stays the same, correct? But that’s exactly what Peloton’s investors are betting will not happen! If revenues expand 2.4x over the next few years, instead of the P/S shrinking from around 6x presently to about 2.5x, a scenario where the P/S metric falls more modestly, perhaps to about 5x looks more likely, considering the fact that profitability is also projected to see sharp improvement.

This would make a 50% plus growth in Peloton’s stock price a real possibility in the next four years. This would likely take Peloton’s market cap from about $31 billion currently to almost $48 billion by FY’25. Although the stock is likely to remain somewhat volatile through the post-Covid reopening, as investors cycle into value and commodity stocks to ride the economic upturn, we think Peloton should deliver solid returns for investors in the medium term.

See our analysis on  for an overview of Peloton stock’s recent performance and where it could be headed over the next month.

[6/3/2021] What’s Happening With Peloton’s Stock?  (NASDAQ: PTON) is up by almost 9% over the last week (five trading days) outperforming the S&P 500 which has remained roughly flat over the same period. The recent gains are driven by favorable views from brokerages, and also as investors likely see increasing value in the stock following its almost -30% decline this year. So how is Peloton stock expected to trend in the near term?

Is the stock poised to decline further or is a recovery looking likely? Based on our machine learning engine, which analyzes Peloton’s stock price movements post its 2019 IPO, the stock has a 64% chance of a rise over the next month, after rising by about 9% over the last five trading days. See our analysis on for more details.

We also think the longer-term outlook for Peloton’s business is solid. We expect demand to remain strong even post Covid-19, as the economics of owning a Peloton compare favorably with gym memberships and spin classes. Moreover, Peloton’s business should continue to benefit from supply chain improvements with the company planning to build out its own U.S. factory, which should commence operations from 2023.

Peloton also recently closed its acquisition of Precor, a company that caters to commercial-fitness applications such as gyms and hotels and this could help to expand the Peloton brand and product range. Peloton’s international expansion is also just getting started, and this could also help the stock. While Peloton trades at a relatively lofty 6x projected FY’22 revenues (fiscal years end in June), this is justified by its high growth rates and thick margins. Consensus estimates point to a healthy 30% plus growth in revenues over FY’22 and gross margins have typically come in at about 40%.

[5/6/2021] Peloton’s Tread+ Recall An Buying Opportunity? (NASDAQ: PTON) fell by almost 15% in Wednesday’s trading, after the company said that it would be carrying out voluntary recalls of its treadmill machines – the Tread+ and Tread over safety issues, offering users a full refund. The Tread+ treadmills were reportedly responsible for dozens of accidents and the death of at least one child. Peloton stock is now down by close to 50% from all-time highs seen in January, as it has also been hurt by a broader rotation out of growth and “at home” stocks, with the Covid-19 pandemic receding in the U.S. So is Peloton stock worth a look at current levels of about $82 per share? We think it is.

Now, the current recall marks a PR setback for Peloton, which initially brushed off concerns that the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) raised about its treadmills in April. The financial impact of the recall could also be somewhat meaningful. The recall is likely to involve over 125,000 Tread+ machines which cost about $4,300 each, and a small number of Tread machines that have seen a very limited roll out in the U.S.

If we assume that 70% of customers opt to return the Tread+ (customers also have the option of keeping their treadmills and having Peloton relocate them to rooms not accessible by children), that would translate into refunds to the tune of over $375 million, excluding logistics and other costs. For perspective, Peloton’s revenues stood at about $1.1 billion last quarter. The company has also stopped the sale and distribution of Tread+ as it works on hardware modifications and this could also impact revenues this fiscal year.

That said, a majority of Peloton’s hardware sales come from its exercise bikes and we think the demand is likely to remain strong even as Peloton fixes its treadmills. Treadmill-related accidents are also not unique to the company. Per the CPSC, there were 17 deaths related to treadmills in the U.S. (across manufacturers) between 2018 and 2019. As Tread+ sales eventually resume, the company should see volumes pick up. Moreover, Peloton’s business should continue to benefit from supply chain improvements, the launch of new and lower-priced products, and its international expansion, which is just getting started.

So is Peloton stock expected to decline further in the near term or is a recovery looking likely? Based on our machine learning engine, which analyzes Peloton’s stock price movements post its 2019 IPO, there is a strong chance of a rise over the next month, after declining by about 17% over the last five trading days. See our analysis on  for more details.

[4/20/2021] How Peloton’s Treadmill Safety Issues Impact Its Stock (NASDAQ: PTON) fell by over 7% on Monday and remains down by around 9% over the last week (five trading days) compared to the S&P 500 which is up by about 1% over the same period. The sell-off comes as the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) said that the company’s Tread+ treadmills were responsible for dozens of injuries and at least one death.

The Commission also asked people with young children or pets to stop using the Peloton treadmills, while urging the company to carry out a recall of the product. So how will this impact Peloton? Now, treadmill-related accidents are not unique to the company. Per the CPSC, there were 17 deaths related to treadmills between 2018 and 2019. However, we think Peloton may need to respond with some safety-related software updates or possibly hardware enhancements in the future. The recent events could create some image-related issues for Peloton, which has been one of the pandemic’s biggest winners.

So how is Peloton stock expected to trend? Is the stock poised to decline further or is a recovery looking likely? Based on our machine learning engine, which analyzes Peloton’s stock price movements post its 2019 IPO, the stock has a 64% chance of a rise over the next month, after declining by about 9% over the last five trading days. See our analysis on  for more details.

[2/16/2021] What’s Happening With Peloton Stock?

Connected fitness company  (NASDAQ: PTON) has risen by about 10% over the last week (five trading days). The recent gains come on the back of a rally in the broader markets, with the S&P 500 is up 3% over the same period, and also due to positive views in recently initiated sell-side coverage on the stock. That said, Peloton stock remains down by about -19% year-to-date, driven by the broader correction in growth stocks and pandemic winners such as “at home” stocks.

So is Peloton stock poised to rise further or is a correction looking imminent? Based on our machine learning engine, which analyzes Peloton’s stock price movements post its 2019 IPO, the stock has a 77% chance of a rise over the next month, after rising by about 10% over the last five trading days. See our analysis on  for more details.

So what’s the longer-term outlook for the company? We think Peloton looks like a good bet for long-term investors for a couple of reasons. The stock trades at close to 9x projected FY’21 revenues (fiscal years end in June). Although that looks somewhat high for a company that sells fitness equipment, Peloton justifies this for a couple of reasons. Firstly, Peloton is growing fast, with revenues on track to more than double in FY’21 driven by Covid-19 related demand.

Growth should remain strong in the medium term as well, on account of supply chain improvements, the launch of new and lower-priced products, and international expansion. For perspective, Peloton’s revenues are projected to rise 35% in FY’22 per consensus estimates. Secondly, Peloton’s unit economics also look solid, meaning that it should become quite profitable as revenues continue to scale up. Gross margins stood at almost 40% as of the last quarter, with roughly 35% margins for products and 60% margins on connected fitness subscriptions. That’s even higher than consumer technology behemoth , which has gross margins of about 39%.

[2/16/2021] What’s Happening With Peloton Stock? stock has gained about 5x over the last year, making the at-home fitness company one of the biggest winners through Covid-19. Here’s a quick rundown of the recent developments for Peloton’s stock.

Firstly, Peloton published a strong set of Q2 FY’21 results (quarter ended December 31, 2020), beating market expectations. Revenue grew 128% year-over-year to $1.06 billion and the company also posted a small profit. Connected fitness subscribers grew to 1.67 million at the end of the quarter, marking an increase of 134% year-over-year, and the number is expected to grow to 2.28 million by the end of the fiscal year. Connected fitness subscribers pay about $40 per month to access and sync classes to their Peloton equipment.

One of Peloton’s biggest issues has been that it isn’t able to fulfill demand quickly enough. Although this might seem like a nice problem to have, Peloton risks alienating potential customers and hurting customer experience. This has been a factor holding the stock back since the holiday quarter, with Peloton underperforming the S&P 500 year-to-date. However, the company says that it now plans to invest over $100 million in air freight and expedited ocean freight over the next six months to help speed up its deliveries.

Separately, Peloton recently raised about $875 million in capital via a convertible debt offering at a 0% rate. The company will not pay any interest on the notes till they mature in 2026 and the conversion price stands at about $239, about 55% ahead of the stock’s current market price. This looks like an attractive deal for Peloton, enabling it to invest in its fast-growing business without immediately diluting existing shareholders. []

See our interactive analysis for a detailed look at Peloton’s valuation and financials.

[12/31/2020] Peloton Stock Updates

While Peloton’s (NASDAQ: PTON) stock saw a big sell-off after news of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine in early November 2020, the stock is now up a solid 50% since then and is up by roughly 35% over December alone. So what are the trends driving Peloton’s surge? Firstly, the workout-from-home trend has continued to rise, and demand for Peloton’s products continues to significantly outstrip supply.

For example, the premium Bike+ exercise bike has seen delivery timelines slip to 10 weeks currently. Secondly, Peloton was recently added to the Nasdaq 100 stock index. This move results in higher demand for the stock from index funds tracking the Nasdaq. Thirdly, the company announced last week that it would be acquiring Precor – one of the world’s largest commercial fitness equipment suppliers. This is being viewed very positively for a couple of reasons.

Precor has deep relationships with gyms, fitness centers, and hotels and this could also help Peloton expand its reach to these sectors, as they recover post the pandemic. Peloton could also integrate its digital and connected fitness capabilities with Precor equipment. Peloton is also likely to leverage Precor’s expertise and expand beyond its core offerings of bikes and treadmills to other equipment such as ellipticals and climbers. Precor has a total of about 625k square feet of manufacturing space located in the United States. With these facilities complementing Peloton’s existing manufacturing infrastructure in Asia, it should eventually ease manufacturing constraints.

[12/7/2020] Is Peloton A Fad?

Connected fitness company Peloton’s (NASDAQ: PTON) stock is up almost 4x this year, trading at levels of about $115 or about 8x projected FY’21 Revenues. Peloton’s recent growth partly justifies these valuations – it has effectively at least doubled Revenues each year over the last three years and is on track to double Revenues again in FY’21 (fiscal years end in June).

However, as the early phase of growth dies down and Covid-19 related demand declines, could the company’s success be a flash in the pan? Or is Peloton building a sustainable competitive advantage? While it’s still too early to tell, we think that Peloton’s business model has a lot going for it.

High Switching Costs: Peloton’s business model focuses on building commitment via its pricey, but high-quality exercise bikes and treadmills. Once customers invest in its high-cost hardware, it’s likely that they will continue to pay for the monthly connected fitness subscription service (about $39 per month) to get the most out of their equipment. This is evident from the fact that churn rates stood at just 0.65% in Q1 FY’21 – well below most subscription-based digital services. [] The company is also looking to significantly broaden its reach, by launching slightly lower-priced equipment and indicating that it could eventually sell pre-owned bikes.

Favorable Experience For Users: The overall experience of spin classes and fitness lessons are highly dependent on the quality of instruction, and Peloton’s team of instructors have obtained celebrity-like fame. This is a big positive, as Peloton’s model scales well compared to physical fitness classes. The economics of owning a Peloton also compare favorably with gym memberships and spin classes. The average monthly cost of just a gym membership was about $58 in the U.S. in 2018, while Peloton’s connected program costs $39 a month and can also be shared among family members.

Brand Buzz, Social Features: Being one of the first movers in the connected fitness space, Peloton has built significant brand value. The company is also building social features that could help to engage users and build a sense of community around its platform. This network effect could also help to prevent customers from churning out of its platform. Peloton is also counting on its lower-priced digital fitness subscription ($13 per month) as an acquisition channel for its pricier equipment and connected fitness offering. The company said that Digital Subscriptions grew 382% to over 510,000 over Q1.

[9/11/2020] Peloton’s Valuation

Peloton (NASDAQ: PTON) is an at-home fitness company that sells connected exercise bikes and treadmills and related fitness subscriptions. The stock is up over 4x year-to-date, as the Covid-19 pandemic and related lockdowns caused people to stop going to gyms and fitness centers and work out from home, causing demand for the company’s products and services to soar.

Peloton now trades at about 8x projected FY’21 revenues, ahead of  which trades at about 6.5x. Does this make sense? We think it does. In this analysis, we take a look at the company’s financials, future prospects, and valuation. See our interactive analysis for more details. Parts of the analysis are summarized below.

An Overview of Peloton’s Business

Peloton Interactive sells connected fitness equipment including bikes (starting at about $1,900) and treadmills (starting at about $2500) with a monthly Connected Fitness Subscriptions ($39 per month), which streams and syncs instructor-led boutique classes to users bikes and the Peloton Digital Membership ($13 per month) which streams classes to mobile devices and smart TVs.

The company’s Product and Service bundle is positioned as an alternative to not just other exercise equipment, but to gyms and fitness center memberships. Although the company’s products are priced at a premium, the ecosystem – which combines hardware, software, and content – compares quite favorably in terms of price versus fitness classes and subscriptions. For perspective, the average monthly cost of just a gym membership was about $58 in the U.S. in 2018. [] While Peloton sells primarily to individuals, it also has some exposure to the commercial and hospitality markets.

Peloton’s Financials 

Peloton has been growing quickly. Revenues rose from about $440 million in FY’18 (fiscal year ends June) to about $1.83 billion in FY’20, – an annual rate of over 100%. Equipment sales rose from about $350 million in FY’18 to $1.46 billion in FY’20, with the company delivering 626k Bikes and Treads over 2020 alone. Subscription Revenues grew from about $80 million to $360 million, as the company’s base of connected fitness subscribers rose from 246k in FY’18 to about 1.09 million in FY’20.

Peloton’s total membership base rose to 3.1 million as of the end of FY’20, including users who only pay for its digital subscription (not connected to its equipment). Over FY’21, we expect Peloton’s Revenues to grow to almost $3.6 billion, driven by continued growth in equipment sales and a growing base of subscribers.

While Peloton remained loss-making as of last year, the economics of its business look favorable. Overall Gross Margins are thick at about 47% in FY’20 with hardware margins standing at 43%. In comparison, even Apple – an icon of hardware profitability – posted Gross Margins of less than that at 40% over its last fiscal. While Peloton’s Operating Costs have been trending higher, they have been growing slower than Revenue. With Revenue projected to double this year, Peloton appears to be on track to turn profitable.

Peloton’s Valuation

Peloton stock currently trades at levels of close to $130 per share, valued at about 8x projected FY’21 revenues. While the valuation multiple might appear rich, considering that Apple – the most established hardware/software/services play – trades at about 6.5x – we think it is largely justified. Peloton’s Growth has been solid – with Revenues doubling each year over the last two years and sales are likely to double in FY’21 as well.

Margins also have scope to improve meaningfully, considering the company’s high gross margins and low customer acquisition costs. Moreover, the company’s lucrative connected fitness subscription revenues are likely to be very sticky, as users who have invested in high-cost hardware are less likely to stop paying for its monthly service. Given the buzz surrounding the company’s brand, there may also be scope to double down on lifestyle and apparel products, taking on the likes of Lululemon and Nike.

That said, there are risks as well. Firstly, Peloton faces significant supply constraints at the moment. While a new manufacturing facility in Taiwan is likely to begin production at the end of the year, the company is still likely to miss out on some potential holiday demand. Secondly, as the Covid-19 pandemic eventually ends, investors could re-think the valuation of “at-home” stocks and this could at least temporarily impact Peloton’s valuation.

Separately, tech giants – with their deep pockets and software ecosystems – could play a bigger role in the connected fitness space, challenging Peloton. For instance, Apple recently launched its at-home workout app, Fitness Plus, which provides guided workouts and connects with Apple devices such as the Apple Watch.

E-commerce is eating into retail sales, but this might be an investment opportunity. See our theme onfor a diverse list of companies that stand to benefit from the big shift.

See all  and Download  here

Led by MIT engineers and Wall Street analysts, Trefis (through its dashboards platform dashboards.trefis.com) helps you understand how a company’s products, that you touch, read, or hear about everyday, impact its stock price. Surprisingly, the founders of Trefis discovered that along with most other people they just did not understand even the seemingly familiar companies around them: Apple, Google, Coca Cola, Walmart, GE, Ford, Gap, and others. This might include you though you may have invested money in these companies, or may have been working with one of them for years as an employee, or have consulted with them as an expert for a long time. You can play with assumptions, or try scenarios, as-well-as ask questions to other users and experts. The platform uses extensive data to show in a single snapshot what drives the value of a company’s business. Trefis is currently used by hundreds of thousands of investors, company employees, and business professionals.

Source: What’s Happening With Peloton Stock?

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5 Ways AI Can Help Mitigate The Global Shipping Crisis

With the fourth Now we have a quarter on us, all industries are faced with the challenge of managing a holiday production schedule that will deliver the products. The key for startups looking to defend the quarter from disruptions is to take a proactive, data-driven approach to inventory management.

Here are five methods we’ve been advising clients to adopt:

  • Use data and analysis to identify and map inventory that is impacted by the global shipping crisis. If you don’t have the data on what’s on a ship carrying your materials, use this crisis as an opportunity to justify prioritizing supply chain digital transformation with advanced data, IoT, and analytics (e.g. machine learning and simulation).
  • You need to know the location of your products at all times if you are to successfully assess the impact a shortage will have on your operation. Eventually, AI will aid startups realize how myriad disruptions impact their provide chain so they can better respond with a Prepare B when the unthinkable comes about.
  • If you don’t have the data available, you should partner with a vendor and use a secure environment to share third-party data to provide actionable AI-driven insights on business impact on all parties involved, from start-up to commissioning. retailer. to the consumer.
  • Simulate and forecast the impact of these problems on the supply side on the demand side. Perform scenario planning exercises and inform critical business decisions. If this capability is not in place, an emergency such as a pandemic, civil unrest, or an uncontrollable rate hike will wreak havoc on your business plan. Use this situation as an opportunity to implement a disaster management program to prepare for potential risks.

By: Ahmer Inam

Ahmer Inam is the chief synthetic intelligence officer (CAIO) at Pactera EDGE. He has greater than 20 years of expertise driving organizational transformation. His expertise contains management roles at Nike Inc., Wells Fargo, Sonic Automotive and Cambia Well being Options.

Source: 5 ways AI can help mitigate the global shipping crisis | TechCrunch

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How Australia’s Keyman Investment offering Advisory Needs

Keyman Investment  is a Australia registered company formed with a motive to make the world earn easy money . Keyman Investment draws attention to safety of its clients investments. It means that analysts and experts in economics and finance do a huge work of monitoring, analysis and forecasting the situation on the markets. Their recommendations allow to respond quickly to processes occurring on the exchange, so there can be no price fluctuations which cause negative consequences.

They bring together a wide range of insights, expertise and innovations to advance the interests of their clients around the world. They offer a big number of 10% who promote their business  and build long-term and trusted relationships with their clients – wherever they are and wherever they invest.

They have professional highly trained and experienced team in their field of expertise enabling to provide the quality services demanded. They are seeking  to create value for their clients by constantly looking for innovative solutions throughout the investment process.

What started out as a market for professionals is now attracting traders from all over the world, and of all experience levels and all because of online trading and investment. They are also to providing a  comprehensive resource for clients new to the market or with limited experience trading Cryptocurrency investment, or interested in Forex, gold trade or stock market.

Bronze Plan

2% Daily for 6 Days
  • Minimum – $100
  • Maximum – $15,999
  • Principal Included
  • Instant Payout

Silver Plan

2.5% Daily for 6 Days
  • Minimum – $16,000
  • Maximum – $24,999
  • Principal Included
  • Instant Payout

Gold Plan

3% Daily for 6 Days
  • Minimum – $25,000
  • Maximum – $49,999
  • Principal Included
  • Instant Payout

Diamond Plan

4% Daily for 6 Days
  • Minimum – $50,000
  • Maximum – No Limit
  • Principal Included
  • Instant Payout

Through their unique combination of expertise, research and global reach, we work tirelessly to anticipate and advance what’s next—applying collective insights to help keep our clients at the forefront of change. They bring together a wide range of insights, expertise and innovations to advance the interests of our clients around the world.

Source: Keyman Investment Pty

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